Sic Semper Tyrannis

#Divisions in the ranks of the Syrian army are getting confirmed - Antonin Gregoire

"Last week, Gen. Abdo Khodr Tellawi from Homs was killed with his two sons and a nephew. The Syrian state-run SANA news agency claimed that “armed criminal gangs … killed them in cold blood.” But opposition activists say that the Syrian intelligence services executed them because they were showing signs of sympathy for the protesters, reports the Christian Science Monitor

The concept of “armed criminal gangs” operating in Syria is very hard to believe, Syria has one of the most powerful intelligence service in the world, nothing can happen in the country without the regime knowing it.

Other officers killed in the past two weeks include two Christian colonels, Samir Kashour and Whaib Issa, and Gen. Ayad Harfoush, who, like Tellawi, was an Alawite."

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There are those who think my "simplistic" views on Syria are incorrect because I do not understand the power and viciousness of the Syrian police services and armed forces. 

In fact, those forces are badly flawed in their inner divisions along regional and ethno-sectarian lines.  If they are stressed long enough and hard enough they will come apart.  The process has already begun. 

What will happen then?  Will Israelstand by and watch?  pl

http://www.iloubnan.info/politics/actualite/id/60774/titre/Divisions-in-the-ranks-of-the-Syrian-army-are-getting-confirmed

#Israeli leaders reject Palestinian unity deal - Al Jazeera

 
"In an interview with Israeli military radio, Avigdor Lieberman, Israel's foreign minister, said the Palestinian deal had "crossed a red line" for Israel.

The comments come a day after Hamas and Fatah reached an initial unity deal in Cairo to end a four-year-old dispute that left Fatah controlling the West Bank and Hamas controlling Gaza. The Palestinians claim both territories for a future independent state.

The Egyptian-brokered deal, which took many by surprise, has revived hopes of ending bitter infighting that weakened the Palestinians politically and killed dozens in violent clashes and crackdowns."  Al-Jazeera

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Israel does not want to make peace with the Palestinians except on the basis of the creation of a 'bantustan' that is neither a competitor economically nor a conceivable threat of any kind.  In pursuit of that "end state" they want a Palestinian leadership that is compliant and "biddable" and that will not control the borders of its possible "state."  Neither may such a "state" have any armed forces. 

Hamas refuses to recognise Israel as a permanent feature of the Middle East. Hamas has indicated its willingness to conclude a religiously binding truce with Israel for ten years.  Such truces are indefinitely renewable, but that is not good enough for Israel. They want Palesinian acknowledgement of the permanent loss of part of their national homeland.

Bottom Line:  These will be no peace in the Holy Land. 

Interestingly, the Egyptian military junta brokered this deal.  They did it in the certain knowledge that Israel would not accept a relationship with the resulting Palestinian union.  If the Egyptian Army did this, what will the elected government do about the peace treaty with Israel and the gas pipeline to Israel?

Guess.  pl

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/201142817747522257.html

A Clarification on Some Thoughts on the Kandahar Jailbreak

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

I wanted to clarify something from my previous post that has come up in a couple of comments.  I think I wasn't exactly clear in either what I wrote or how I wrote it pertaining to both the efforts of TF 134 under Maj. Gen. Stone or Ashour's research on the de-radicalization of jihadis.  The two are not, and were not in the previous post, intended to be linked in a way that implied that TF 134 was engaging the de-radicalization that Dr. Ashour has researched and written about.  Ashour's work focuses on both Egyptian and Algerian Islamic movements that have become either radicalized or reactionized and utilized violence to achieve their ends and how they either did or did not give up the use of violence to achieve their goals.  The process involves the movements and the state authorities -military, civilian, law enforcement, and intelligence services - interacting to produce the process he delineates and the outcomes he describes.

#Persepolis; Renaissance; Waltz with Bashir - Reviews by Alan Farrell

 
Animated Triptych (kinda like a picture in three parts, only--you know--classy): Persepolis; Renaissance; Waltz with Bashir.

The French call it B.D. (pronounced “boo-yah-bayss”) for bande dessinée, that is, not “comic strip” but “drawn strip.” These days it’s anything but comic. The Spanish for their part say “Cimoc,” that is “comic” backwards or stood upon its head, not funny at any rate. The Boc I mean Germans prefer their collocation Bildgeschichte (“picturestoryshamepleasureworldvisiondevelopmentnovel”). Then of course we gots animé, expropriated by the Japanese (translation: “little girls with big gringo eyes and big gringo umph umphs in little gringo Catholic school skirts and maryjanes,” everybody’s dream). Cartouche, carton ( > cartoon). All the familiar mechanics of the comic as we know: the standard box within which the action takes place (case), the thought or speech balloon (bulle), the strip or string of boxes (planche) in linear disposition (left to right, up to down), the movement lines, the tortured perspective, the onomatopoeia (pan! plouf! flatch! baf! vlan! and on and on). All this we take for granted when we see drawn images leap from a page, drawn images flash across a screen. We used to could identify the quality of animation by the number of cels (individual images) per minute and thus distinguish between the glorious Warner Brothers Looney Tunes and the ugly, assembly-line Hanna-Barbera or stiff, bird-like Rankin-Bass stuff of later vintage.

#Syria will self destruct?

 
"An additional 203 members of Syria's ruling Baath party quit on Wednesday, protesting a deadly crackdown on anti-government demonstrations that have gripped the country. It brings the total number of resignations to 233."  France 24

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IMO Syria is the most potentially destructive of all these countries in play.  They are allied to Iran, support Hizbullah and Hamas, are treated as pariahs by the US, and are thought by the Israeli government as very nearly a province of Iran.

The country is complex in demography; Sunni Arabs, Druze Arabs (a heretical sect), Alawi Arabs (another heretical sect), Christians and a few more odds and ends.

The Syrian Army is divided between Alawis and Sunnis as is the Baath Party.  The Syrians are good killers, not so good as fighters, but good enough.

The Israeli/AIPAC apparat is spreading the rumor that the Iranian IRGC is fighting alongside the Syrian Army.  I don't believe it.  What is the evidence?  Intercepts of people speaking Persian?  If not, what?  Perhaps the Israelis are working themselves up to an intervention in Syria?  But, who would they support?  They have reviled Bashar Assad.  They fear what might come next.  Perhaps they could form a combined task force with Saudi Arabia and Iran to keep the status quo in power.  (Irony Alert)  pl

http://www.france24.com/en/20110427-hundreds-resign-from-syria-ruling-baath-party-protest-against-crackdown

#Panetta as the man with the knife.

 
"...finding more places to cut the budget would be one of the top items on Panetta's agenda when he arrives at the Pentagon on July 1."  Reuters

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Well, bless him if he can manage that. 

It will take a major change in foreign policy to make that possible.  At the same time the flags who have grown fat at the trough in the last decade have no historic memory and will insist that such cuts in acquisitions, operations and maintenance are "disloyal."

Such a change in foreign policy does not necessarily mean isolationism.  What it really would mean is an abandonment of the "American Exceptionalism" imperial meme.  The Navy and Air force look like good "bets" in this environment.

No more culture wars overseas.  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/27/us-usa-pentagon-industry-analysis-idUSTRE73Q8E120110427

#National Journal 26 April 2011

 
Col. W. Patrick Lang Responds to Where Is the U.S. Relationship With Pakistan Heading??.

pl

#Egyptians don't like America. What a surprise!

 
Ken Hoop.  Whatever that is, wishes me to be "instructed" by this.  Did we think Egyptians liked us?  Did anyone see the Egyptian woman on the Daily show last night?  She said that she learned to make revolution in a course at AUC.  Stewart asked her how it was that a tyrant would allow such a course to be taught.  That missed her altogether.  Ah, well they will hang Mubarak if he does not die soon, or perhaps this gal could stab him in his bath.  pl

http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/04/26/egypt/index.html

#John Batchelor show- 25 April 2011

 
http://wabcradio.com/FlashPlayer/default.asp?SPID=33447&ID=2170115

11 minutes in.  Syria this time.  pl

#Some Thoughts on the Kandahar Jailbreak, De-radicalization, & Detainee Operations

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

I wanted to just take a minute and follow up on COL Lang's post and comments regarding the jailbreak in Kandahar.  While the CSM report does not go into great detail about how the detainee operations were conducted, it does make clear that criminal and political prisoners were separated.  What it does not specify, however, is how the political prisoners were treated.  And by treated I mean not just were they give three meals a day, exercise time, prayer time, access to reading material, health care, etc, but if their incarceration included attempts to de-radicalize them, disaggregate them from the insurgency, and eventually be able to release them back into their communities.  The latter two aspects of detainee operations were successfully established and used in Iraq by Task Force 134.  Initially conceived and laid out under the command of Maj. Gen. Stone, the idea was to move beyond a crime control process of just getting the insurgents off the street and holding them were they could not do any more damage to actively trying to identify who the detainees were (extremist, non-extremist, religious, non-religious, reconcilable, non-reconcilable) and then utilize appropriate rehabilitation (for lack of a better term) methods to achieve these goals.  Essentially the detainee operations were a version of COIN applied within the detention facility.  TF 134 had some real success with this approach and it appears that it was copied in Parwan, Afghanistan.  Whether this was being used in the Kandahar prison is not determinable from the CSM article on the jail break.

 

#Jailbreak in Kandahar

 
"The escape is a particular blow to NATO and Afghan forces who have ratcheted up their campaign against the Taliban during the past year and hoped to expand their gains this summer. While NATO forces captured many of the Taliban fighters who were being held in the prison, the escape cast doubts on the ability of Afghan forces preparing to take more responsibility for providing security.

“I would call this a shameful incident for the Afghan government,” says Ahmad Shah Khan Achakzai, a former member of parliament in Kandahar. “It is impossible for the Taliban to get 500 men out of prison without anyone’s help. I believe there are some people from the prison or the government who gave the Taliban support.… It’s now clear to everyone how corrupt the government is.”"  CSM

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The marines and ISAF headquarters say that "progress" is being made in south Afghanistan; Helmand Province, Kandahar Province, etc.   I don't think so.  Kandahar city is the largest population center in that region.  The Taliban were able to dig a thousand foot long tunnel there without detection.  This took five months to do.  The tunnel ran under a main road, under buildings, etc.   Nobody in the city noticed or warned the authorities.  Having dug the tunnel into the political section of the prison, the Taliban emptied it out, taking several hours in the process.  Guards, prison authorities, etc. were strangely oblivious to all this. 

There are 541 more Taliban back "in the game" today.  Who is kidding who about "progress" in south Afghanistan?  pl  

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2011/0425/Taliban-tunnel-frees-Kandahar-prisoners-in-blow-to-NATO-and-Afghan-forces

#Qathafi's Army is an Armed Mob

 
""They are trying to run way," Lutfi said of the soldiers, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals. "They are pretending to be civilians. They are putting on sportswear."

Ali Misbah, a captured Libyan soldier who had been wounded in the leg, was held under guard in a tent in the parking lot of the Al Hikmeh Hospital, one of the city's smaller medical centers.

Misbah, 25, said morale was low among Gadhafi's troops. "Recently, our spirit has collapsed and the forces that were in front of us escaped and left us alone," he said.

Misbah said he and his fellow soldiers were told that they were fighting against al-Qaida militants, not ordinary Libyans who took up arms against Gadhafi."  Yahoonews.

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Qathafi's "army" is an armed mob.  That is the real story behind what has happened in Misrata.  The rebels are also an armed mob, but that is to be expected in the absence of structure and training in their forces.  McCain and Graham are right in this matter.  It will not take much to take the fight out of Qathafi's partisans and turn what lookslike a stalemate into a rout.

Bombing Qathafi's headquarters compound is a good idea.  It is a powerful symbol of his powerlessness.  It is unlikely that such attacks will succeed in killing him.  Before the strikes in '86 he was filled with a great illusion of the "toothlessness" of the United States, but he has learned his lesson and is in hiding except for unscheduled, sudden appearances.

Getting rid of the Qathafi government looks easier than ever.  pl

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110425/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_libya

 

 

#Athenaeum Post on Spring

 
My sister Maureen has put up a post on the poem "Spring' by Gerard Manley Hopkins.  The "redbud" in the pictire is in a corner of my back garden in Alexandria.  The cherry tree here is across the street.

On the genealogy front, our Lang and Fay ancestors were "freeholders' in Louth and Meath before they emigrated together to America in the 1830s.   They settled in St. Lawrence County, New York where they bought farms and remained until after the WBS.  Any thoughts from anyone?  pl  

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2011/04/spring-gerard-manley-hopkins.html

 

#Lithuanian Resistance to Soviet Occupation 1944-1952 by TTG

This is a research paper I wrote in July 1981 while going through the Special Forces Officer Course. I offer it as an example of a resistance movement or insurgency with which many SST readers may not be familiar (except for my occasional rantings). The main point to grasp is the insane lengths to which a people will go to free themselves from an oppressive regime and obtain their freedom. This will to freedom cannot be understood by a cost-benefit analysis. It can be deeply emotional and amazingly strong. Does this offer any lessons for the Arab Spring? The Palestinians? How about Iraq and Afghanistan? Is this what enabled the Confederate soldiers to fight on in the face of incredible hardship and terrible odds?

#Survey of the MENA Region - 22 April, 2011

 
Syria- It appears that the encouragement given by the US to Syrian dissidents over the last decade has created an undergound anti-Assad movement that will bring Bashar down.  The accelerating pace of demonstrations will probably prove impossible to withstand.  This change will not necessarily benefit Israel.  There is no particular reason to think that a different Syrian government will have a different policy toward Israel, Iran, Hamas or Hizbullah.  Syria will react favorably toward sincere offers of peace that restore Syria's territory.  Nothing else will move them.

Iraq- So far as I know, the US is still waiting for an Iraqi government request for a continuing American troop presence after 2014.  The process of withdrawal continues.  Iran waits for consolidation of its gains in the northern Gulf region.  Iraq is ruled by Shia religio/political factions aligned with Iran.  It will be interesting to see if there will be an Iraqi request for a long term US presence. I believe that there will not be such a request.

Saudi Arabia/Bahrain - Most Americans, to the extent that they think of it, do not understand how little leverage that the US has with the Saudis.  They have decided to change the basic nature of their relationship to the US, taking from now on a much more independent course and encouraging resisitance to revolutionary groups throughout the region.  Their motivation is obvious, self protection for the regime.

Yemen - Salih is finished, only the timing of his deprture remains to be known.  Destination?  Saudi Arabia.

Egypt - Very little has really changed with the departure of the Mubaraks.  The military caste and the MB/Salafi forces maneuver just beneath the surface of events waiting for the force of civil society "moderates" to be spent so that Egyptian history can resume its normal course.

Libya - Western forces that favor the rebels are slowly gathering their strength.  The visit of John McCain to Benghazi (without Lieberman), the assignment of Predator UAVs to ground attack duties, France's announcement of increased French air support for the rebels, all these things bode ill for Qathafi's reign in Tripoli.  European trainers and advisers will make a big difference in a few months.

We live in interesting times.  pl

#Trainers and Advisers for Libya - At Last!

 
"Britain is sending up to 20 military advisers to help Libya's ragtag rebel force break a military stalemate with Moammar Gadhafi's army, even as NATO acknowledges that airstrikes alone cannot stop the daily shelling of the besieged opposition-held city of Misrata."  Yahoo News

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It is now about six weeks since we (SST committee) began to discuss the need for trainers, and advisers to help the Libyan rebels.  It was clear from the beginning that air power would not be enough.  Why?  As I have written so many times, people live on the ground.   Aviators do not live in the air, nor do sailors live in the sea.  The people who are always the true objective of any armed conflict live in houses, tents, apartment buildings, etc.  They and the land they live on are the objective, always.  No matter how much you attack people from the air, someone must always advance and close with the enemy.  Six weeks have been wasted.  I understand that both the French and the British will participate in this effort.  Perhaps it is not too late.  Perhaps there should be some American volunteers to help wth this, a new AVG.  Yes, I know that we are "broke."  We broke ourselves.  This may be our last hurrah.

Does this mean that the carping, whining incessant propaganda drivel about the "unkown" nature of the rebels will end?  I doubt it.  Take a hard look at who and what is "pushing" that line.  pl 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110419/ap_on_bi_ge/ml_libya

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/current_affairs/page/2/

 

Nonsense & the Civil War

 
By Richard Sale, author of Clinton’s Secret Wars 

          A serious, conscious mind today resembles a person sitting under a waterfall, squatting compactly with drowned hair, eyes tightly shut, mouth gasping and spitting while all around the foul water furiously boils. 

          Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Paul Ryan, et al., pose very real dangers to mental health, and with the 150^th anniversary of the Civil War, one fears that we are once again to be subjected to yet another deluge of toxic sludge.

"J"'s return

"pat,  just a note to let you know that we're almost back in our home, our 'new' home that is.  i'll send you pics once the move in is complete.  it's good to see my wife smiling again.  i never thought i'd see light at the end of the tunnel, but thanks to our two sons, we've gone from homeless due to the fire to in a new home in just a little over 2 months.  that's quick imo.  very quick.  if it hadn't been for our oldest son who is in the housing construction business, my wife and i would still be floundering trying to find out who is honest and who will the do the job in a timely manner, etc..  anyway our son took the bull by the horns and assumed gc overseeing duties, and in just days after the fire he had 'his' workers out doing the old structure demolition and reframing.  it was a finely tuned opera to stand back and watch.  both my wife and i were going 'wow'.  our youngest son worked with our oldest to ensure that the house would be on the cutting techno savy edge.  we even have a water heater with a 'brain' no less.  the house is totally wire with cat5 high speed data/phone lines, all energy effecient and such.  we've gone totally electric with high effenciecy heat pump and such.  my wife is smiling.  just the other day she hugged our oldest son around his neck and he thought she was going to snap it she was so overjoyed and happy.  i'm firmly convinced that if it had been in the middle of the night, it would have killed both the wife and i.  somebody upstairs was/is watching over us. 

pics soon to follow.  hope everything has been going good with you and yours. 

have a good evening."

 

#Something’s happening.......... FB Ali

The media’s preoccupation with the terrible earthquake and tsunami in Japan, followed by the protracted nuclear crisis, had hardly subsided when the Arab Spring burst into bloom with its tense standoffs, between the old order and the new, erupting into violence, and actual war in Libya, with the West as a participant. All this drove the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan off the news, except for a brief flurry of reporting following Pastor Terry Jones’s incendiary exploits. (Personally, I don’t think there is anything to the story that the Quetta shura has made the reverend an honorary Taliban in recognition of his services to the cause).

However, the war in those distant lands has been grinding on in its usual fashion ‒ IEDs and suicide bombers killing soldiers and civilians (though there was the odd case of two US soldiers being killed by a US drone), coalition air strikes and SF night raids killing insurgents and civilians, the Pakistan army’s operations in its tribal areas continuing unendingly, young Taliban suiciders blowing up Pakistanis. The political and strategic games between the main players in the war have also been continuing, though it appears that they are now starting to take a significant new turn.

 

#National Journal Blog - 18 April 2011

 

What Will Obama's Security Cuts Really Mean? - National Security Experts.

 

pl

#"The Butcher's Cleaver" at the Leesburg Flower Festival.

 
Today I was at the annual flower and garden festival in Leesburg, Virginia.  We try to go every year.  It is a wonderful occasion with the Old Town streets closed to vehicles and hundreds of vendors of garden goods and plants.  This gentlemen sells splendid birdhouses and garden tables of his own creation.  He had a copy of the great American novel, "The Butcher's Cleaver" with him which he asked me to sign.  I was pleased to  do so.  pl

 

#New Athenaeum Post by Michael Brenner

The Buddha As Icon- Michael Brenner

 http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2011/04/the-buddha-as-icon-michael-brenner.html

 

#Gasoline prices now are just market action

 
"Oil dropped to the lowest level this month on Tuesday as energy forecasters said the world's supply of oil will remain ample, and a prominent investment bank said prices are too high."  Boston Globe

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We haven't had a good oil price fight here for a while.  I am curious if you "peak oil" types think the high prices now are the product of long or short term shortages.

IMO, 30% of this is just speculative action in the markets operating at the margins of the spot market.

I am not a great admirer of Donald Trump but I heard him say the other day that there is a lot of crude afloat in tankers that can't be sold or placed ashore.  True?  pl

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2011/04/12/oil_price_tumbles_on_supplies_and_goldman_pullback/

#Anne Hornaday - Movie Reviewer or Polemicist?

 

This film review is "peculiar."  I have not yet seen Reford's opus but it seems to be about the abandonment of due process in the case of the confinement, trial and execution of the team of people who killed Lincoln.  It is, of course, set in the WBS, but not really about the CW.  In this it is somewhat like my novels.

FWIW I think Mary Surratt was "guilty" of having acted as an accomplice before the fact in this killing.  I think the same thing is true of Dr. Mudd.

Redford has made a political movie, one that is preaching about the Bush Administration, Guantanamo, "enemy combatant" status, etc.

Interestingly, this reviewer cannot resist the opportunity presented by the film to focus, not on Redford's sermon, but rather on her dislike for the South and the supposed bias in the American film industry in favor of the Confederacy.  She cites "Gone With the Wind"  "The Birth of a Nation."  Both examples are a bit long in the tooth, but, all right, point taken, in these two examples.  What else?  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/the-conspirator-and-the-lost-union-cause/2011/04/14/AFhcYjeD_story.html

 

#John Batchelor Show - 14 April 2011

http://wabcradio.com/FlashPlayer/default.asp?SPID=33447&ID=2162106

10 minutes in.  pl

#Correction to "Prisoners of the mountain" review.

 
Correction to Prisoner: A sharp-eyed commentor advises me that the principals (if not principles) in this film are Georgian, not Afghan(stani), the war the Chechen not Afghan(stani). Grateful to be set straight, apparently through Wiki-Whatzis, who knew all along. You might be tempted, now, to say “Chechen, Afghan(stani). Yeah, like there’s a difference…” Sadly, they seem to be butchering each other over there on account of just that difference in particularly unfunny fashion. To this dumbo viewer at any rate, who did not spot the authentic history, the altered setting actually adds yet another asset to the film’s considerable charm: it leaves the issues of war, occupation, race, otherness abstract and divorced from time and place (at least for those ignorant of the precise cultural discriminators) and a yet broader comment on those same issues. A very nearly perfect little movie if not a very nearly perfect little review of it. In a related matter, a correction to my review of Citizen Kane: Marilyn Monroe did not discover radium.  Alan Farrell

#States of Emergency - Kieran Wanduragala

One of the first concrete demands of demonstrators across the Arab world is an end to the “states of emergency” that have served as the legal basis for methods of political dictatorship. Real emergencies may briefly demand dictator-like actions (like the fireman who carries someone kicking and screaming out of a burning building); for those who wish to establish or consolidate authoritarian regimes, there is nothing better than a vague, ill-defined, and open-ended ‘emergency’.

#Prisoners of the Mountains - a review by Alan Farrell

 
Prisoner of the Mountains. Russian, 1996. Directed by Sergei Bodrov (evidently written by him, too, if “schrepskaia vlentomdreviko zchtevnitsk Bodrovla” mean “written by him, too”). Starring: Yeah, right. Name two Rooshan movie stars. Ready, go. Actually, I think you can guess maybe from the cast who’s the Rooshan and who the Afghan(stani), but… Oleg Menshikov; Sergei Bodrov (the son, we assume, if “zeztayevskovit” mean “junior”); Valentina Fedotova; Alexsei Zharkov; Susanna Mekhraliyeva; Alexandr Bureyev; Jemal Sikharulidze (Wanna guess which side he’s on?).

Allegedly taken from the short story by Tolstoy (not Leo Tolstoy, the novelist, but Bob Tolstoy, the plumber, who wrote “Prisoner of Seattle” and the sequel “Prisoner of Dee-Moines,” both available in paper now) titled “Prisoner of the Caucasus,” but “taken” far if you will, substantially altered to accommodate a respectably-understated message about irony, humanity, fate, stoicism, dignity, grief, vodka, donkeys. Though this is serious stuff, be it added that the occasional yuck does obtrude: two soldiers, after all. While we’re on it, it might make some think of Thomas Mann’s Innere Verwirrung und fruhes Leid and no, I haven’t got a clue how to translate that into English except it’d be A Child’s Confusion and First Grief …or something: Young girl (an adolescent here on the sill of nubility… and how many of us have dreamt of a tippy-toe across that sill over the years?) discovers passion and pain in the same instant …or something.

#Meyerson says that the Tea Party people are rebels.

 
"today’s Republican right betrays a mind-set that hearkens back to the secessionists who fired on Fort Sumter. Shutting down the government isn’t comparable to shooting it down, of course, but the South’s war on egalitarian government and labor standards threatens again to diminish our country."  Meyerson

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"A love so strong it could not let us go..."  This is an old joke among Southerners.  It concerns the sentiment that caused the North to fight so hard for so long to retain the seceded states within the Union.  Meyerson does not seem to feel such a strong love, at least not for white Southerners.  The 150 year anniversary of the beginning of the WBS is stimulating a renewal of political warfare by analogy over the issues federalism, popular sovereignty, the right of secession inherent in the present Constitution, and the "rightness" or "wrongness" of opinion or of historical outcomes, etc.

A lot of the writing on this seems harmless, but Meyerson very specifically identifies the South with the political right and with evil intent and wrongdoing.  This is not harmless.   He seems to assume that the opinions of the left are the repositories of the values of the victorious Union armies and navies.  Conversely, he appears to believe that the values of the right were vanquished at Appomattox and that those who hold those values should understand that they live in the US by the sufference of the righteous.

Meyerson has missed something.  This country is not a centralized state in the sense that France or even many of the supposedly "federal" countries are.  It is, in fact, a federal republic in which the states, federal government and the citizens are the three actors in an ongoing drama seeking to establish the balance of power as a dynamic process.  Power flowed towards the federal government for many years in the 20th century chiefly through a doubtful interpretation of the "commerce clause."  As a result, many people came to assume that the balance of power was settled as being effectively consolidated in the hands of Washington.

That assumption is now challenged in a powerful way by the phenomenon roughly described as the "TEA Party" movement.  In spite of the vapidity of some of its supposed "leaders," that movement represents a strong sentiment for more limited federal government, greater local sovereignty and reduced government expenditures.

To assert, as Meyerson does, that such a movement lacks legitimacy because it represents a resurgence of rebellion is arrogant self-righteousness.  It is also self defeating because this assertion drives the very people whom he despises toward the tendency that he fears.  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/150-years-later-were-still-fighting-the-civil-war/2011/04/12/AFFLFeSD_story.html

#Drones? Who? What?

 
"In all, about 335 American personnel — C.I.A. officers and contractors and Special Operations forces — were being asked to leave the country, said a Pakistani official closely involved in the decision.

It was not clear how many C.I.A. personnel that would leave behind; the total number in Pakistan has not been disclosed. But the cuts demanded by the Pakistanis amounted to 25 to 40 percent of United States Special Operations forces in the country, the officials said. The number also included the removal of all the American contractors used by the C.I.A. in Pakistan."  NY Times

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(Irony Alert)  What's the matter with those people in Pakistan?   Don't they understand that the US decides for them what will or will not be?  Sovereignty? We dealt with that idea in Iraq.  Didn't we?

To quote Christopher Matthews (is that still his name?) a few years back, "Who is in charge in Iraq, Us or them?"

Well, soon they will "sober up" (sort of) and realize who is in charge.  Petraeus will fix all this.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/12/world/asia/12pakistan.html

#Arab Spring - a Tour

 
WRC asked a while back for a review of the various revolutions, alarums and excursions:

- Yemen. "As I said" (AIS), Salih has been searching for some time for an exit strategy that provides a home for him and his and that does not leave revolutionaries in charge, revolutionaries who might demand his return for trial.  His most promising route out lies in something like the deal that the GCC is pushing.  The Saudis do not want to see Egyptian style revolution spread to the peninsula.  They would be displeased to see that since it might prove contagious.  Saud Arabia has a large expatriate Yemeni population.  He might be tempted to fight it out, pugnacious as he is, but the times are not right and he will not want to lose a potential hime in SA.  South Yemen may well try to secede from the larger body and resume its status as an independent state.  North and South Yemen are quite different culturally.  In that event AQAP (Awlaki) will try to build a redoubt area somewhere like the Hadramaut with an eye to eventually taking over South Yemen.  I doubt if he could.  There are too many Communists, Socialists, secular nationalists and Baathists in the place for that to be an easy thing to do.

Public Goods, the Social Contract, and the Discussion that Americans Should be Having

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

For a several months now, as I've worked on one project or another or interacting with colleagues and friends, I keep coming back to the same two broad concepts that Americans should be discussing, but seem to have lost sight off: what exactly are or should be public goods and what sort of social contract should we have to make sure that they are properly delivered.  While this is going to be a light on hyper links post, as it is essentially a thought piece, given the type of discussions that we usually have here at SST, and given what we all witnessed over the past two weeks regarding continuing resolutions and budgets, and what we'll unfortunately watch going forward as issues like the debt ceiling and the 2012 budget come up, as well as the next election cycle, the time seems right to try to write this up and post it.

Let me start by defining my terms.  I'm using public good to refer to anything that is or should be non-excludable and/or non-rivalrous or both.  Simply if anyone could or should partake of it and if partaking of it can not reduce the amount of it to be consumed by anyone, then something is or should be a public good.  In simpler parlance we generally equate things like roadways, a variety of essential services such as sewer and water and electric, education, defense, law enforcement, emergency services (fire and EMS), and even healthcare as public goods.  Another good way to define a public good, which is often easier to use because it doesn't use words like "non-rivalrous", is an item or service that individuals, or even groups, can not provide for themselves, that by their nature are accessible to everyone in a society, and which have to account for the lowest common denominator (ie it makes no difference what one's class, ethnicity, religion, gender, etc is).  

By social contract I'm referring to the agreements that we make as a society on issues of political, social, economic, and religious governance.  Usually in liberal democracies, which is what the US is supposed to be (of the republic type), this requires giving up some freedom or liberty in exchange for certain public goods; specifically goods and services that individuals or even groups of individuals can not produce or provide for themselves.  So the two concepts - public goods and social contract are linked and intertwined.

Something worth watching

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Given our gracious host's literary endeavors, as well as the often expressed interests of many of the contributors and readers here at SST, I thought I'd mention a new three part documentary to air tomorrow night.  Its on the National Geographic Channel and the link to the show's website is:

http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/series/civil-warriors/5682/Overview

Full disclosure:  I have nothing to do with National Geographic or their cable station and my last contribution to their fiduciary well being was purchasing their issue with Ankgor Wat on the cover while on TDY in JUL 2009.  

*Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College, the US Army, and/or the US Government.

#Qathafi's victory will mean more repression.

 
"The protesters carried Iraqi flag and banners, with some chanting "Baghdad is a free country, America get out!" and "No for Occupation, No for America."

One banner read "No, no America," while another said, " Yes, yes for Quran."

American troops are scheduled to depart from Iraq at year's end under a bilateral agreement between the Iraqi government and the United States."  CNN

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The conspiracy mongers are having a field day ascribing to the US and NATO wonderfully bizarre deviousness in the thwarting of the "Arab Spring" revolts and alarums.  "The US was only lukewarm to the Egyptian revolutionaries."  "The US wanted Mubarak to leave in something other than the manner of his actual going."  "The US has tacitly approved Saudi and Bahreini repression of the Shia revolutionaries in those places." 

Shorter comments

 
In token of the limitations of the military mind, I hereby limit ALL comments to 20 lines or less subject to my judgement as to whether or not a particular item merits more space.  pl

#Gates Agonistes - Maybe.

 
 "A later call from Mr. Obama to the king asking that Saudi troops not enter Bahrain did not go well. An Arab official later said that King Abdullah’s willingness to listen to the Obama administration had “evaporated” since Mr. Mubarak was ousted." NY Times

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Gates should stop fooling around and just leave the government.  The US/Saudi relationship is dead for the foreseeable future.  The Saudis (as in Saudi Arabia) have correctly read the omens  as saying that the US government will abandon them for some vague idea of reform/revolution that the US favored in Libya but not enough to make it succeed.  In this the Israelis and the AIPAC Fifth Column are strangely allied with the autocrats. Perhaps this is because the Zionists are actually a relic of the 19th Century.  The prospect of Mubarak and Omar Suleiman on trial before a "people's court" does nothing to change Saudi resolve about the US.  There will be more Chinese restaurants in Riyadh.

And then, on to Baghdad, where Gates had the privilege of begging Maliki for a request to keep an American garrison in the country indefintely.  Good Luck!  US intervention in Iraq to alter the regional balance in favor of Israel and the US was always a stupid idea based on the delusion that traditional Middle Eastern society was as much of a vestige of the past as Zionism.  That was wrong and now is revealed as having failed miserably.  Now Obama fears that the fracas and failure of US policy (not just his) that will follow US withdrawal will be blamed on him.  Oh no!  Not that!  So, Gates has the job of learning if enough force can be kept in Iraq to protect Obama from blame.  Pathetic.  pl

http://fastflip.googlelabs.com/view?q=view%3Apopular&a=ibbPkQ0HtNH_cM&source=news&type=embed

 

#Maliki and Obama

 
"As early as September 2010, the White House informed the Iraqi government that it was willing to consider keeping between 15,000 and 20,000 troops in Iraq, in addition to thousands of unacknowledged Special Operations Forces. But Obama insisted that it could only happen if Maliki requested it, according to a senior Iraqi intelligence official."  Gareth Porter

---------------

Who? What?  When"

When I read this thing that Porter was nice enough to send me, I was so impressed with my own naivete that I called up my friend "basilisk" to ask if he had known that Obama and company actually believed that the Iraqi Shia government was going to ask for a more or less permanent US garrison in Iraq.  When he got through laughing at my supposed joke, he said "no, I never."  Of course not, he is a rational, well informed human.  Who the hell are these people who convince themselves and each other that fantasies like this are real possibilities.  After all that has happened, these buffoons think that Maliki's Iraq, or some other Shia pietist's Iraq is going to be a "faithful friend" of the US?  Mon dieu!  Astaghfur b'illah!

Maliki's government feels threatened by Saudi money and its support for Sunni Arab resistance?  (Irony alert) Why would they think that? 

They may not want to have us around?  Dommage!  pl

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=55150

 

#Libya editorial in WAPO

 
" if the withholding of American resources enables Mr. Gaddafi’s survival in power, the long-term consequences will be the reverse of the president’s promise."  WAPO

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Predictably the NATO political council has restricted the provision of air support to the Libyan rebels to the point that a military stalemate is now a likely outcome if the present policy continues.  This was foreseeable and probably forseen by the Obama Administration.

At the same time someone has encouraged former congressman Curt Weldon to go to Tripoli to discuss various "straw man" proposals with Qathafi.  Since it is a violation of federal law for an American private citizen to conduct diplomacy, it seems likely that the encouragement was official.  Weldon (the suitcase nuke man) was seen on CNN this morning explaining that he will tell Qathafi that the last time we bombed Tripoli (1986) Qathafi complained that we had not warned him.  Weldon says that he is there to warn him.  That seems a pretty clear threat.  One of the "staw men' is an offer to have Qathafi made "honorary head of the African Union." ?????

This sounds like something from a poorly written farce, but.... Qathafi is certifiable, so, you never know, he may go for some of this.

More interesting is the WAPO break with Obama policy and behind that, the obvious inclination of the Natanyahu government.  BTW, what was Peres here for yesterday?  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/does-withdrawing-us-planes-from-libya-serve-our-interests/2011/04/05/AFNcAjlC_story.html

"Suckerpunch" A Review by Alan Farrell

 
Suckerpunch. Directed by Zack Snyder. Starring (maybe featuring better): Emily Browning (the one with the bee-sting lips stuffed into the crevasse-seeking spandex outfit) ; Abbie Cornish (the one with the bee-sting lips stuffed into the crevasse-seeking spandex outfit); Vanessa Hudgens (the one with the bee-sting lips stuffed into the crevasse-seeking spandex outfit); Jenna Malone (the one with the bee-sting lips stuffed into the crevasse-seeking spandex outfit); Oscar Isaac ( I think he actually paid them for a part in this one); Carla Gugino (putting up a good fight at 40-something I’m guessing and not to be forgotten for her stark naked walk-on in Sin City, which Snyder did not do but if he didn’t, should have… though based on subsequent would not have altered much); Jon Hamm (over-exposed these days in a spate of second-banana parts); Scott Glenn (Ouch! Somebody left the phonebook out in the rain).

#Baram replies to al-Misry

 

IMO opinion, Dr. Amatzia Baram is an Israeli who is more willing than anyone I know to see a just solution for the Palestinian people.  I am proud to have him for a friend.  pl

--------------------------------
"Mr. al-Masri,

So we are back to history. Indeed history is a teacher, albeit only to an extent, and only if you do not distort it.

You accuse me: “you omitted completely the context of the scattered and handpicked events you mentioned”. Well, what you did was precisely that and worse. I do not challenge your view that Egyptians saw Israel as a threat because of 1956. But you distort history by ignoring for the third time in our brief correspondence the fact that you attacked Israel on May 15, 1948. Yes, I know, you considered the Partition to be unjust. This is your narrative. So: if you believe that injustice to Arabs is being done you attack, yes? And you attack with the intention to exterminate every living Jewish soul, yes? Or maybe just to toss us all into the Mediterranean, so if we can swim-we shall be OK, Yes? What was this? Zionist propaganda?  Maybe the Mossad broadcasted it in 1948 from Cairo, as it dropped the poison gas bombs on the Yemenite pro-Imam tribes? Those conniving Jews, you know, are capable of anything, right? You do not try to negotiate, to accept a compromise, you attack and promise total annihilation.  I understand. But when it proves to be a sword that cuts both ways you are cutting it out of your “Narrative”: it is becoming too embarrassing. This is what you did.

#Qur'an and the Muslims

 
For nearly all Muslims, the Qur'an is the UNCREATED word of God.  The Ibadhis in Oman and a few others do not believe that but they are a small mimority.  For the "orthodox" majority the Qur'an is really not a "book" at all in the sense that a volume of Shakespeare's poetry, the Bible or "Huckleberry Finn" are books.  The fact that the Qur'an is printed or transcribed and exists between covers means nothing.  These are mere appearances and physical attributes of this manifestation of the divine here on earth.

For the Muslims, the Qur'an has existed in the mind of God from all eternity.  It has existed in these exact words from all time or from before time if one can imagine such a thing.

Christians believe that the Bible is a divinely inspired book, that it contains great truths, but they all (so far as I know) believe that the Bible was written by people.

That is not the case with the Qur'an and the Muslims.  They believe that the Qur'an descended from heaven and was transmitted by the angel Gabriel (Jibril) to the prophet Muhammad in the very words in which it had always existed as an aspect of God's "mind."

Therefore, when Jones deliberately destroys a copy of the Qur'an they see this as an attack on God himself.  Such an action can easily be characterized in Islamic jurisprudence (fiqh) as deserving death.  That is why it is possible to assemble a mob for violent action.  Karzai should have known better than to say what he did, but his motives are obscure.  The fact that Jones hardly represents "The West" means nothing to the Muslims.

American political tradition protects such acts?  For most Muslims that is simply irrelevant.   They would say that we should not have such traditions.  For me this is reminiscent of the nuns who tried to educate me before Vatican II.  They often said that Freedom and Liberty were all very well so long as one did what was acceptable and "correct," in other words, what the Catholic Church wanted.  Liberty that became "license" (their word) was not liberty.  It was moral anarchy.

A new and different interpretation of Islam is very likely to emerge in the US.  This society is endlessly and remorselessly absorptive and synergistic but that "new" Islam is still "a borning."  When people like Jones do things like this they are asking for trouble.  Other people, in Afghanistan, are paying for his stupidity.  pl

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2011/0404/Terry-Jones-How-his-Quran-burning-helps-the-Taliban

#Iraq, once again.

 
"After the thousands of American lives lost and billions spent, it would be tragic if Iraq collapsed again into war or fell prey to Iran or other neighbors because of a security vacuum created by the U.S. withdrawal. Officials say that the White House has not ruled out the negotiation of a follow-on military presence. But the administration’s position is that any such proposal must come from the Iraqi government."  WashPost lead editorial.

--------------------

IMO, there will be no such proposal from the Maliki or any other conceivable Iraqi government.  The de facto rump state of Iraq is now firmly in Iran's orbit and likely to stay there.  We created that situation by following neocon jacobin policies that sought to, and succeeded in, reversing the social order in Iraq by empowering the Shia Arab majority.  Now we must live with the inevitable result of that revolutionary change.   Maliki's Iraq looks east to Iran, not to the distant and alien United States. To say that the Iranians do not want US forces in Iraq is to state the obvious.  Shorn of effective control of the Kurdish north and facing a long term guerrilla war against disaffected Sunni Arab Iraqis, the Shia dominated government will have to concentrate on maintaining itself in power with tacit Iranian assistance.

Al-Qa'ida in Iraq?  The Sunni partisans are likely to tolerate or even encourage their escalating levels of operations as part of their struggle with the government.

Chairman Rogers of the HPSCI does not think that Iran will be the dominant "player" in post US Iraq?  He said that this morning on MTP.  My.  My.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/time-runs-out-in-iraq/2011/04/01/AFwwJGQC_story.html

#Official: Libyan rebels seek democracy - AP

 
"The Libyan rebel movement that controls the country's eastern half wants to install a parliamentary democracy across the country once they topple the regime of longtime ruler Moammar Gadhafi, a top rebel official said Sunday.  AP

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I suppose that a lot of people will simply refuse to believe the rebel spokesman.  He is a lawyer from Benghazi.  Most people in the US do not want to do anything to help the rebels in Libya.  A variety of reasons for this are presented; money, unwillingness to inflict casualties deliberately or accidentally, indifference to MENA affairs except for Israel and oil, etc.  In truth this is all about war weariness.  The Bush Administration expended the emotional war making potential of the United States.  The staffs can "roll up the maps" in the planning shops in the Pentagon. They will not be needed for a long time.  One can say (tongue in cheek) that now is the time for Canada and Mexico to exercize whatever revanchist and irredentist inclinations toward the US that they may have.

Having said that, I can only hope that there is enough common sense left in the engaged portion of the American people that there will be continued support for NATO's military and diplomatic actions in Libya.

A stalemate in the rebellion, de facto partition of Libya, reconquest of the east by Qathafi, all these things would be perceived as defeat of the United States by the forces of reaction across the world.   Perception is the greater part of reality in international politics.

Having supported the Libyan rebels rhetorically, President Obama has ventured the strategic capital of the United States in this matter.  He should get his mind "in the game" enough to focus on that.

There is still time to do enough covertly or openly with our NATO allies to save the day in Libya.  pl

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ap_on_re_af/af_libya

#Portraying Jesus and Mary: Picturing the Bible's Ethereal and Human Prophets- Michael Brenner

 
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2011/04/portraying-jesus-and-mary-picturing-the-bibles-ethereal-and-human-prophets-michael-brenner.html

Another fine essay on religion and art by Dr. Brenner.  pl

#Syria today - Kieran Wanduragala

 
Considering the deaths in Syrian cities, the regional revolutionary upheaval, and the quietly simmering frustrations of ordinary citizens, Bashar al-Assad’s jovial address to the nation Wednesday struck a jarring note. Many - apparently including some in his own government - expected him to announce fundamental reforms, even lead a reformist ‘coup’ within the regime, a new ‘corrective movement’. Others thought Assad too weak to deliver real reform - but nonetheless expected conciliatory noises and gestures. Few expected the strong, confident, smiling, laughing - and utterly unyielding - figure we saw on display. In the context of the bloodshed, it was a chilling performance.

Some Real Afghan Blowback

Adam L. Silverman, PhD* On the 20th of March everyone's favorite Floridian clergyman finally burned a Quran.** Unlike his aborted previous attempt leveraged for maximum publicity, this time the Reverend Jones' actions did not get as much press due to wall to wall coverage of Libya, Japan, and a presidential election that is over a year away. This time Jones put the Quran on trial, found it guilty, and administered the penalty: burning. While Jones' actions didn't make much of a splash here in the US, it did get the notice of Muslims in Central and SE Asia. In Afghanistan three clerics in Mazar i Sharif exhorted members of that community to seek revenge against Americans. Given that there are few in the area, a number of incensed locals took their anger out a Western target of convenience: the UN Headquarters. Reports indicate that at least twelve are dead. And if you want to know what the UN workers are themselves thinking, then the despondent comments of one staffer is very enlightening: "The UN mission is done".*** Aside from noting the blowback from Jones' bigotry, there are two important issues that we need to keep in mind. The first is that all communication is strategic communication. Everything we do or say conveys meaning. In this case Jones' extremist stupidity conveyed that Americans are at war with Islam. And the result is that people lost their lives. Had their been Americans in the area, or personnel from our coalition allies, then they too would likely have been attacked. While Jones, and others like him, have the right to say or do anything that is within the Law, their actions are putting not only American lives at risk, but also those of our military allies, and civilian allies like the slain UN workers as well. The second important point to keep in mind pertains to just what it is that Jones did. The Quran is considered to be an uncreated text. By that I mean that it is considered to be an aspect of the Deity. This is akin to the Christian concept, as delineated in the Gospel, of: "In the beginning was the Word". So lets turn the map around a little bit and consider if Muslim anger over the mishandling of the Quran. If non-Christians, claiming to believe that Christianity was evil, violent, and destructive were to burn the New Testament exactly what do you think the reaction would be in the US? We don't have to think long or hard about this as we have a recent example to view. Last October the Smithsonian first exhibited, then pulled amid an outcry a privately (that's right I wrote PRIVATELY) funded artistic film, made over a decade ago, about the early days of the AIDS crisis. In one scene a plastic crucifix is shown covered in ants. While the creator of the work has stated that this was an allegorical depiction of suffering drawing on Mexican Christian/Cruciform imagery, prominent Christians in the US were outraged and the Smithsonian quickly pulled the film from the exhibit. There were even calls in Congress to defund the Smithsonian.**** Too often we see the professionally outraged in the US, both religious and non-religious, make the most outrageous statements about Muslims not denouncing terrorism or Islam justifying violence. Usually these claims are accompanied by statements that Islam is a religion that promotes violence or is somehow inherently evil, but seldom do we see any reflection or discussion about what happens when the shoe is on the other foot. In January, in Spokane, a white, Christian, anti-government extremist/supremacist tried to blow up marchers at an MLK Day Parade***** - did anyone feel the need to ask a prominent Christian or a prominent white person to apologize on behalf of all other Christians or white people? No, and it would have been absurd had anyone made the demand. What the Reverend Jones' actions exemplify is another well known passage from the Gospels pertaining to hypocrisy: "first remove the beam from your own eye..." * Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College or the US Army. **http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/02/world/asia/02afghanistan.htl?r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss">http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/02/world/asia/02afghanistan.htl?r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss ***http://www.undispatch.com/this-attack-is-different ****http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/culturemonster/2010/12/controversy-over-video-censored-by-smithsonian-continues-to-build-steam.html *****http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/jan/18/fbi-says-backpack-spokane-parade-route-was-bomb/ I apologize for no hyperlinks. I'm traveling, only have my iPad, and can't get the rich text format to work in Typepad while using it from my iPad.