#Summary of Talk to DIA Alumni Association

 
"Colonel W. Patrick Lang, USA (Ret), spoke on The Islamic World Today at the 24 February Defense Intelligence Forum held at the Pulcinella Restaurant in McLean.  Colonel Lang is a retired Army Military Intelligence, Special Forces, and Foreign Area Officer.  In his last active duty assignment, he was Defense Intelligence Officer for the Middle East, South Asia, and Terrorism. Following retirement, he became the first Director of the Defense HUMINT Service for which he was awarded Presidential Rank of Distinguished Executive. He was the first Arabic Language professor at West Point. After leaving government, he served ten years as a business executive for a company operating in the Middle East and South Asia. He is a consultant for television and radio, including The News Hour with Jim Lehrer. He wrote Intelligence: the Human Factor, a definitive text on human intelligence collection operations, as well as several novels based on Confederate secret services in the Civil War. He is a VMI graduate and has a Masters Degree in Middle East Studies from the University of Utah.  

Lang explained that the unrest in the Arab/Islamic world stems from its having a huge population surplus of the young and unemployed.  There is a pattern of large families in the Arab World, but no thought to family planning.  The result is having two tectonic plates moving against one another:  the autocratic regime vs. a growing dissatisfied citizenry.    

In Egypt, it is difficult to predict the outcome of future elections and whether civilians will assume authority over the military.  Nor did Lang predict if and when those in power would repeal the emergency decree.  He did comment that the economic situation in Egypt will not change very quickly because there is not enough to go around.  Egypt needs effective family planning before they can achieve political stability.   When asked about the Muslim Brotherhood, Lang said that if they are patient and bide their time, they could eventually ascend to power.  They would establish Shari'a Law and this would not be good for Egypt.  It is best for Egypt to remain a secular state.  

In Yemen, the government controls only a few tribes.  The tribes are concentrated in a few towns and there is warfare between these towns and outlying areas.  Lang commented that President Saleh, a Shia, directly participated in the assassination of the two preceding Presidents. Saleh hates al-Qaeda and Lang thinks that he will survive the current unrest.  

Bahrain is ruled by Sunni Muslims and is closely (politically and geographically) aligned to Saudi Arabia.  The Saudi Royals are not going to let the unrest in Bahrain spread.  

Libya has a population of 5 million spread among disparate regions.  The state was created by the Italians.  The former King was supported only by his own tribe.  In 1969, a Signal Corps Captain, Qaddafi conducted a coup and the King was disposed.  The current unrest is following Tunisia's example of a population rebelling against Qaddafi's long-standing autocratic regime.  

Tunisia is a prime example of the blending of French and Arabic cultures.  Of all the countries in the Arab World, it was the logical place for a revolution to occur.  It was an example of a “Revolution of Rising Expectations.”  Lang explained that the population must experience some degree of success in order to revolt.  The Tunisians are somewhat advanced, are well-educated, and now want more.  

Young King Abdullah of Jordan is willing to relinquish some concessions to his people and switch to a constitutional monarchy.  However, if there were a revolt and it escalated to large-scale bloodshed, Abdullah would probably abdicate.  

When asked about the outlook for a revolt in Iran, Lang replied that the level of unhappiness there is not yet high enough to foment change."

Official DIAAA summary of talk.

Comments

[arbogast]

That is some c.v.!

It is difficult to watch and hear about the bloodshed in Libya without having the gut reaction that the U.S. should intervene.

However, much as I feel sympathy and horror at the fate of unarmed Libyans being murdered by an insane criminal dictator, is it not possible to at least imagine that my horror is multiplied by 10 in an Egyptian?

If it were, and if the Egyptan army were in control of Egypt, then would it not at least be possible to imagine an Egyptian military intervention in Libya?

I ask that in all seriousness.

[jr786]

"Tunisia is a prime example of the blending of French and Arabic cultures." Dialectics. The materialism aspect comes from the sheer inequity, the complete absence and/or disregard for social justice in the Arab Muslim world, at least what I've seen of it.

Here in Oman, for instance, everyone I talk to wonders why they have nothing while the wastocracy drives around in Range Rovers. The fake piety of Muslim 'princes' satsifys certain hadith about obedience, but the people suffer the realities of inequality and its accompanying misery.

The various crises in the Arab Muslim world are over-determined, ascribed variously to vague yearnings for freedom or democracy or 'openness' or anything else that masks the underlying injustice of this part of the world.

"However, if there were a revolt and it escalated to large-scale bloodshed, Abdullah would probably abdicate". Insh'all-h.

[Patrick Lang]

arbogast

CV? That was the introduction for the talk. It was mostly right. My CV is posted on SST. pl

[Jake]

Lets starts another ethnic war....

Pulcinella Restaurant...

Not a bad choice.... But of course Northern Italian beats Southern Italian cuisine any time....:-)

[Patrick Lang]

Jake

i like the lasagna. something I do not get at home. pl

[Jake]

Boss,

The only problem with lasagna at Pulcinella's is that they put oregano in their sauce. Lousy Southerns... :-) Good chow hall though...

[psc]

Exploding populations, dire economic straits, youths that recognize they will likely be less succesful than their parents?

Were you describing the United States of America?

[Terrone]

"Not a bad choice.... But of course Northern Italian beats Southern Italian cuisine any time....:-)"

I would contest that assertion. The Southern Italian kitchen is not without its charms, one just tends not to see it executed very well outside of Italy.

[Jose]

Jake, what do you have against oregano? Don't you realize it's a Southern European staple?

Col., what is your opinion of this article.

[Patrick Lang]

Jose

Ah, well it is a summary. pl

[Fred]

psc,

Haven't you been watching events in Wisconsin? At least Governor Walker found a way to save $7 million without firing anyone:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/03/04/952754/-Damage-estimate-at-Wisconsin-Capitol-goes-from-$75-million-to--uh--$0-

Maybe if all the politicians (and MSM enablers) stopped making things up they could address issues like adults.

[Jake]

Jose - "Don't you realize it's a Southern European staple?"

In the North its a crime to put oregano in a tomato sauce....:-)

Terrone - "I would contest that assertion. The Southern Italian kitchen is not without its charms, one just tends not to see it executed very well outside of Italy."

I lived in both Roma and Milano for seven years collectively. Yes the South has its charm. But tell me? Where in the United States would you prefer to get good Italian food? The North or the South? When it comes to food, Italy is not that much different. But, Southern Italy is very different in taste buds. As well as style, climatic and economic conditions. Which also effects the food.

Of course I will admit, that with this type of ethnic food fight, the only loss would be in ones waist size.

Now, we will not mention that Island across from San Giovanni... :-)

[Roy G]

Col. Lang, I know you often participate in discussions with serious organizations, such as DIAAA, that respect your expertise. That said, I'm wondering if you are invited to address Rep. Peter King's American Jihadist witchhunt on March 10. Since i'm guessing they would prefer to give your spot to Frank Gaffney, could you at least do us SST readers the favor of posting a response to this dog and pony show? It is important for its anti-intelligence value, if you get my drift. Thank you.