Sic Semper Tyrannis

#Washington, Benghazi, and the Euro-Med - Kirakofe

 
Some accuse the White House as dithering on Libya but I like the public go slow approach of President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton.

Exhibitionist US politicians get their blood pressure up over proposals like "No Fly Zones" and behave as if they are puppets in a childrens' Punch and Judy show.

Behind the scenes where such things properly belong, it would seem to me that our military and IC are taking a fairly close look at the Maghreb these days.  What authorized activity goes on in secret is, of course, not for public consumption for reasons of security, sources, methods, and so on.

#Clapper to leave?

 
"Clapper said he was "loathe" to pick one country, but said Russia and China have the "capability."He said he could not get into "gauging intent.""  James Clapper

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I don't like this man, never liked him and to the extent that he remembers me I am sure that he has no warm feelings for me, but he really is trying to distinguish here between the reality of the lethal nuclear capability of Russia and China and the much amaller capabilities of countries like Iran and North Korea who do not constitute an existential threat to the United States.

Nevertheless, Clapper's ineptitude in public speech is strange.  This is particularly strange in a man who has testified so many times before Congress.  He no longer seems to comprehend that one must "play the game" in dealing with the political realities of Congressional desire to see the world in simplistic terms as well as media driven obsession with the "devils on the wall" created by information operations.

Leave before they throw you out, James.  pl

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/10/dni-clapper-claims-russia-china-pose-mortal-threat/

#J Street - Why?

 
"The United States already has too many special interest lobbies promoting policies that do absolutely nothing good for the American people.  If Israel has become a rogue state, which it has, the problem must be resolved by the Israelis themselves and the diaspora Jews who believe that they have a stake in the outcome. "  Giraldi

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Phil gets it right, as usual.  IMO Liberal Zionism is a delusion used by progressive diaspora Jews to salve their consciences over Israeli rapacity and political manipulation while yet supporting these actions.  pl

http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2011/03/09/the-j-street-scam/

#France recognizes Benghazi government.

 
"France recognised the Libyan National Council, a rebel body fighting to oust Muammar Gaddafi, as the legitimate representative of Libya's people on Thursday, the first country to make the move."  Reuters

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This means that France can receive requests from that government on a state to state basis and prvide requested assistance if it chooses to do so.  An amusing thought - Will Qathafi's Jamahiriya now declare war on France?  Let's see- where is the De Gaulle battle group these days?  France actually has the ability to project an expeditionary force.  This should be interesting.  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/10/france-libya-idUSLDE72910520110310?pageNumber=2

 

 

#The Black Swan - A Review by Alan Farrell

 
The Black Swan. Directed by Darren Aronofsky. Starring: Natalie Portman (degrees of separation: Natalie stars with Jean Reno in The Professional; Jean Reno stars with Vincent Cassell in Crimson Rivers; Vincent Cassell stars with Natalie Portman in The Black Swan); Vincent Cassell; Mila Kunis (the only skin in the thing); Wynona Rider (or Winona Ryder, she spells it both ways… and whoa! …someone left the cake out in the rain); Barbara Hershey (come full circuit from her days as “Barbara Seagull” nursing her son, Free, on the set of Boxcar Bertha); Barbra Streisand as the Nutcracker (or is that a different ballet? …yeah, like they’re different!).

#John Batchelor Show - 7 March 2011

Same thing 18 minutes in.  pl

http://wabcradio.com/FlashPlayer/default.asp?SPID=33447&ID=2128300

 

"The Sacred Architecture of the Universe" - FB Ali

Newly published on The Athenaeum.  pl

Iraq Shuts Office of Protest Organizers - NY Times

 
"... growing concerns that Mr. Maliki’s American-backed government is using force and other measures to stifle dissent in this fragile democracy, where tens of thousands of demonstrators have seized on the upheaval sweeping the Arab world to rally for government reforms and better services.

Officials for the Iraqi Nation Party and the Iraqi Communist Party said in interviews that dozens of armed security forces had come to their offices here Sunday, two days after another round of demonstrations."  Ny Times

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"The Iraqi Communist Party..."  Well, Maliki and Saddam had this in common.  The only place in Iraq for the "Shuyu'iyiin" is prison.  Ironically, the "Iraqi Nation Party" is much favored by the neocons.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/08/world/middleeast/08iraq.html

TTG's plan on the National Journal blog

 
Col. W. Patrick Lang Responds to Do American Interests in Libya Warrant Military Intervention??.

#John Batchelor Show 6 March 2011

18 minmutes into the segment.  pl

http://wabcradio.com/FlashPlayer/default.asp?SPID=33447&ID=2127408

#National Journal Blog 7 March, 2011

 
As Unrest Spreads, What's Next For U.S.? - National Security Experts.

#DOLLAR$ FOR Defense - Michael Brenner

 
The defense budget in back in the news – the perennial harbinger of Spring like the first crocuses. This year’s version of the ritualized passion play on Capitol Hill features Secretary Robert Gates’ highly publicized proposal to trim military spending by $78 billion over the next five years. That would amount to roughly $15.5 billion per annum. A closer look reveals that the numbers refer only to the fixed Pentagon budget while excluding the ‘off the books’ outlays for the war/occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan. (Even the official fixed budget greatly understand outlays for our military establishment. Were we to include lifetime medical care, interest on debt, etc. some reasonable calculations that I’ve seen place the aggregate annual cost at $1 trillion+). Conservative estimates of those costs, which assume a steady drawdown of forces and expenditures, pretty much match the projected $78 billion cuts. So, in truth, this heralded bold step to rein in defense spending is a bit of legerdemain. That’s to be expected. These annual exercises usually are little more than stylized Kabuki.

#TA- "Avoiding the Grandfather Paradox - Maureen Lang

My sister, Maureen has put up a new post on "The Athenaeum."  pl

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2011/03/avoiding-the-grandfather-paradox.html

 

#To Prof Baram from Yusuf Al-Misry

 
Dr. Baram

I just kept asking myself what is it exactly that you wanted to say in your last post. It seemed to me that your points were: Nasser is bad- Israel is a victim- Eisenhower was wrong- I forgot the 1948 war- Amin Al Hussein was a Nazi- the 1973 war ended with Egypt’s defeated,etc.

The problem here is that you seem to be entangled in polemics rather than trying to really understand the evolution of the military rule in Egypt since 1952. You chose ” Egypt 1952-2011” to call your contribution to the debate in this site. While this explains why I did not go back to 1948, the issue was Egypt, not Israeli- Egyptian relations in the period you chose.

(Editor's note, I asked Dr. Baram to address the two upheavals.  pl)

#Dr. Amatzia Baram in response to Yusuf al-Misry

 
Dear Mr. Al-Masri,

I shall try to answer your points one by one. Even when we disagree, though, I know that both of us are looking forward to the day that Israelis and Egyptians will be having tea together.

#John Batchelor Show - 3 March 2011

My part of this begins as usual around 28 minutes in.

http://wabcradio.com/FlashPlayer/default.asp?SPID=33447&ID=2125524

pl

#Summary of Talk to DIA Alumni Association

 
"Colonel W. Patrick Lang, USA (Ret), spoke on The Islamic World Today at the 24 February Defense Intelligence Forum held at the Pulcinella Restaurant in McLean.  Colonel Lang is a retired Army Military Intelligence, Special Forces, and Foreign Area Officer.  In his last active duty assignment, he was Defense Intelligence Officer for the Middle East, South Asia, and Terrorism. Following retirement, he became the first Director of the Defense HUMINT Service for which he was awarded Presidential Rank of Distinguished Executive. He was the first Arabic Language professor at West Point. After leaving government, he served ten years as a business executive for a company operating in the Middle East and South Asia. He is a consultant for television and radio, including The News Hour with Jim Lehrer. He wrote Intelligence: the Human Factor, a definitive text on human intelligence collection operations, as well as several novels based on Confederate secret services in the Civil War. He is a VMI graduate and has a Masters Degree in Middle East Studies from the University of Utah.  

#What Is Going On In The Middle East? (3) Yusuf al-Misry

 
Under the category of fundamentalist organizations in Egypt, there are two main groups: the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and the Salafi Group. The MB has been going through many internal pressures. On generational bases, it is divided into layers.

The first is the “elders,” who are now most of the members of the leading bodies. These are the guys who lived through the years of (Mehna) i.e. “The Tribulation” of the 60’s. They are generally conservative and emphasize the Islamization of the society versus participating in the political life of Egypt.

 

#Maliki - The new Saddam.

 
"Witnesses in Baghdad and as far north as Kirkuk described watching last week as security forces in black uniforms, tracksuits and T-shirts roared up in trucks and Humvees, attacked protesters, rounded up others from cafes and homes and hauled them off, blindfolded, to army detention centers.

Entire neighborhoods - primarily Sunni areas where residents are generally opposed to Maliki - were blockaded to prevent residents from joining the demonstrations. Journalists were beaten."  Washpost

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I would like to think that Charles Krauthammer is merely a fool and not deliberately deceiving his fellow Americans.  He is saying now that "we now are all advocates for the "freedom agenda."  Really? What we have done in Iraq is substitute one tyrrany for another.  This one has a Shia face.

Can we bring better governments to power in any other countries in the Islamic World?  No, we cannot, only the inhabitants can do that, but in Libya the die is cast. The president of the United States has committed us to removal of Qathafi.  Will that result in better governance in these places.  One can only hope.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/03/AR2011030304953.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/03/AR2011030304239.html?hpid%3Dopinionsbox1&sub=AR

 

In Response To Prof Amatzia Baram ”Egypt 1952 and 2011” - Yusuf al-Misry

 
Sir,   It is unfortunate to see so many flaws in so few paragraphs.

You say : “Everything the officers (of 1952) touched turned from gold into lead. They were expected to root out corruption, but all they did was to replace one corrupt elite with another, their own”.

Then you say later: “There are peculiar similarities between the military coup d’état of the Free-Officers under Gamal Abd al-Nasser and the 2011 mass rallies situation.  Like the 1952 coup d’etat, the January 2011 upheaval may be explained as a result of a synergy between mainly two forces.  One is obviously public resentment at the authoritarian and corrupt regime of Husni Mubarak and his ex-military and military supporters.

Here's a Perfect Example of Failing to Live up to American Ideals

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Came across this youtube video of news coverage of a California Muslim groups fundraiser to assist those who are experiencing food distress in the US.  That it drew protestors is remarkable enough, the behavior of many of them is just shocking:

 

Hat tip to Digby

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College, the US Army, or the US government.

#The Everglades Challenge - TTG

 
I would like to invite the SST Committee of Correspondence to follow a unique event called the Everglades Challenge 2011 which begins this Saturday morning. I discovered this event several years ago and have put participating in it on my bucket list. The event is organized by a colorful group of adventurers who call themselves the WaterTribe. The Everglades Challenge is an unsupported, expedition style adventure race for kayaks, canoes, and small sailboats. It starts at Fort DeSoto in Saint Petersburg, Florida and ends at Key Largo. The distance is roughly 300 nautical miles depending on one's course selection. There is a time limit of eight days. Updates on the progress and tribulations of the participants will be posted on the WaterTribe website. Alligators, pythons and sharks... what’s not to like? 

http://www.watertribe.com/Default.aspx 

On a more leisurely note, here's a video of a not too shabby way to spend one's retirement. One doesn't have be in New Zealand to do this. Just think of the possibilities of the Chesapeake Bay or the coast of Maine. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OG0-onhxS9M&feature=mfu_in_order&list=UL

Regards,

The Twisted Genius

The Return of Alan Farrell

I should announce that BG Alan Farell has returned to our blog to post fim reviews, other literature and anything else that he would like.  pl

#John Batchelor Show - 2 March 2011

My part of this starts at 18:00  pl

http://wabcradio.com/FlashPlayer/default.asp?SPID=33447&ID=2124420

#The Beast (DVD) - Alan Farrell

 
The Beast.  Directed by Kevin Reynolds (who directed Robin Hood:  Prince of Thieves and Waterworld, both with Kevin (!) Costner ...annnnnnd who wrote Red Dawn along with John Milius, from whom he doubtless soaked up the obsession with Satellite ordnance, Rooshan nastiness, and guyness).  Starring George Dzundza (whose family was doubtless happy to see him playing a Rooshan), Jason Patric (now where’d I put that -k?), Stephen (the other one) Baldwin, and (unbelievably) Steven Bauer as the Afghan.  Based on a play, Nanawatai, allegedly the Afghan word for the “guest-friend” hospitality obligation to which even the barbarous must cede.

 

#9th Company (DVD) - Alan Farrell

9th Company.  Directed by Fyodor Bondarchuk (son, you’ll be happy to learn, of “renowned director” Sergei Bondarchuk… yeah, sure:  name two of his films …ready, go!).  Starring:  Bunch of Rooshans, apparently drawn from whole spectrum of Asian racial palette much like the World War II squad of undying fame:  Zingari, Sacco, Vanzetti, Prinzip, Van Der Lube, Barrow, Parker, Gacy, Dahmer, Berkowitz, Dillinger, Sheen.

We’ve grown weary—some of us, at least—of the appeal by blow-dried journalists on the teevee comparing our morass (they actually found another word for “quagmire”) in Afghanistan, Cesspool of to our morass in Vietnam, Republic of.  Seems among the lessons we did not learn is that other people watch our teevee, too.  The Pentagon, meanwhile, has resurrected the French morass (“merdier,” in the original) in Algeria as the model for counterinsurgency, COIN in Pentagonspeak, though COIT(us) might be better acro, and taken to showing Gillo Pontecorvo’s Bataille d’Alger (frequently mistranslated as “The Battle of Algiers”) to deploying officers… or thinkers …sometimes both (urf!  urf!).   Anyhow.  Whether the morass in Vietnam or the morass in Algeria turn out to be the most appropriate paradigm (kinda like an example but next-level cooler)  remains a question for the over-the-horizon guys.  Still, this unregenerate SP/4 wonders if maybe the morass in Afghanistan might not be a more plausible metaphor for the morass in Afghanistan.  Just a thought.

 

#Egypt 1952 and 2011 - Dr. Amatzia Baram

 
Events in Egypt are still unfolding. My hope is that the true believers are right: the new regime that will be born from the convulsions of January-March 2011 will be a liberal democracy in the true sense rather than a dictatorship of the majority. One hopes that it will be pluralistic, respecting the rights of the “other”: the Christian, the Jew, the Baha’i and the convert from Islam to other religions. One hopes that it will be peaceful and adhere to all the international treaties and agreements signed by its predecessor: this is a crucial sign of political maturity. One also hopes that the people of Egypt will give the new regime the needed time, maybe ten years, to solve the huge structural problems faced by their country. If all that happens, Egypt being Umm al-Dunya (“The Mother of the World”), the Middle East will gradually enter an epoch of peace, stability and, within a decade or so, also prosperity.  But right now we are merely at the dawn of the new era. Allow me to play the devil’s advocate: what will happen if all, or most of those hopes are dashed? History as I understand it, provides evidence that the road ahead may be very bumpy. 

Thanks

Paypal used to notify me when someone made a donation and then I would write the donor a note of thanks.  They have stopped doing that, so I would like to thank all those who have made recent donations and did not receive thanks from me.  pl

#Sharia Law is NOT Closer to America than it Appears…

Adam L. Silverman PhD[1]

At the beginning of February I wrote about how fear of the Muslim Brotherhood taking over in the US, as well as in Egypt was greatly exaggerated.  This theme, or meme for the fashionable and trendy, goes hand in hand with the longstanding argument that Sharia Law is soon to be imposed in the US.  Initially, in the first couple of years after 9-11 this claim was basically made by several Conservative (I’m using the term because I think that’s how they’d describe themselves) bloggers who made the assertion by arguing that soon Americans that were not Muslims would become dhimmis[2].  In fact a new term was coined: dhimmitude; as in our impending dhimmitude.  I’m not going to link to the people who put these arguments out then, one of whom was also a primary instigator of the invented Ground Zero Mosque controversy last year.  They do not deserve the click through traffic, if you want to read what they had and have to say, just do a search for dhimmitude.

#The fallout from the Davis affair ‒ FB Ali

Raymond Davis’s murder trial has begun, while the US continues to press for his repatriation, though now much more circumspectly. Whatever the outcome of these proceedings, this affair has already had a significant impact on the US-Pakistan relationship, and may yet do so also on Pakistan’s internal situation.

I had concluded my previous thread on the subject by advancing the hypothesis (triggered by a couple of useful pointers from TTG and MTJY) that Davis was working for a JSOC Special Mission Unit whose task related to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. This hypothesis has acquired some legs if one considers the effects this event has had, and is having. All of them were set off when it caused the balance of power in the Pakistani establishment to tilt away from the US-friendly faction towards the Pakistan-friendly one (the bulk of this establishment is, of course, just self-friendly).

#Libya - De Opresso Liber

 

A Little History: 

First, let's go over a little history. The 10th Special Forces Group (10th SFGA) was activated in 1952 under the command of Colonel Aaron Bank, a veteran of the OSS and a Jedburgh Team leader advising and leading resistance forces in occupied France. Colonel Bank organized and trained the 10th SFGA to conduct unconventional warfare (UW) in the occupied countries of Eastern Europe.  Specifically the Group's teams were prepared to develop, organize and direct indigenous resistance forces in the conduct of guerrilla warfare. This beginning is reflected in the SF motto "De Oppresso Liber" (Liberate From Oppression). To this day, SF training is focused on this mission. 

Since those early days, the SF mission expanded to include counter insurgency operations, direct action missions and training foreign. However, SF organization and training is still focused on the UW mission. In the final exercise for both officers and enlisted candidates for SF, the students are inserted into the fictitious "Republic of Pineland" to develop, organize and direct an indigenous resistance force in the conduct of guerrilla warfare. Recall the paper written by Major Gant to see how this mindset remains in SF. 

What to Do: 

I'm certain there are SFODAs (SF Operational Detachment Alpha) that have planned and trained for employment in Libya to support guerilla operations. But given our decade long preoccupation with Iraq and Afghanistan, those teams may not be immediately available or not immediately ready to move into Libya. On the other hand, I'm sure there are teams with Arabic and desert training ready to go in the 3rd, 5th or 10th Groups. The headquarters for the operation would probably be in Stuttgart, Germany where EUCOM, AFRICOM and, conveniently enough, 1st Battalion, 10th SFGA are located. An assessment/ command team should be immediately inserted into Benghazi to make contact with the Libyan resistance. In a previous post I alluded to the difficulty and criticality of this initial contact. How this team will be received is unknown. However, I am getting the impression that the resistance forces initial euphoria is being tempered by the realization that they have a difficult struggle ahead of them. This assessment team will serve as liaison to the resistance leadership and a command element to the SFODAs to follow. The assessment team will determine the size, abilities and needs of the resistance fighting forces and relay this information to Stuttgart so the SFODAs can properly prepare for their insertion. The ODAs will be in isolation intensively preparing for their insertion and mission execution.  

 An ODA can usually train, advise and/or lead a battalion to regimental size force.  In addition to a couple of ODAs in Benghazi organizing the main resistance forces, I would insert an ODA each in Zawiyah and Misrata to shore up the resistance in those areas. I could envision SF troops working to break up armored assaults by Qathafi's forces on these two areas while using the resistance forces for supporting fires similar to the Hizbollah regulars did in the last dust up in Lebanon. Holding these two areas would keep pressure on Qathafi and give time for the main resistance forces around Benghazi to organize. As I write this, I am watching a report of former Libyan soldiers in the Benghazi area preparing captured equipment and training youths for military action so things are already moving in the right direction. The ODAs can also direct any air or naval support that may or may not be available. That would be a tremendous force multiplier and would IMHO pretty much guarantee that Qathafi's forces would not be able to overrun the resistance. The taking of Tripoli will still be a tough nut to crack. The SF troops could ensure that the final battle is done smartly and with patience rather than seeing an angry armed mob just surging toward the palace and getting themselves slaughtered.

The author is known here as "The Twisted Genius"  (TTG)  He wrote this on behalf of Aaron Bank's Children

 

 

UW in Libya

 
I would like one or more of the SF men here to write about what the potential would be.  Send it to me.  pl

#Libya - America doesn't have a clue...

 
I have spent the last 24 hours trying to understand what the US Government's understanding might be of the situation in Libya and what, if anything, they might want to do about it. 

1- Estimate:  The government only yesterday came to realize that there is little chance that the rebels presently have the will or the strength needed to seize Tripoli and depose MQ.  Until then, they believed that the enthusiasm of the rebels would generate a moral climate that would swell as they approached Tripoli and that the dictator and his supporters would lose heart and just give up.  Why did hey think that this tenacious lunatic would decide to flee?  Well, Mubarak left, didn't he?  Aren't all people the same?  Well, maybe not.  The likelihood of a prolonged state of civil war is now recognised.  Clinton said as much before the Congress today. 

2- What to do?:  They have no idea.  Having seized Libya's reachable assets (including those of the Qathafis) the US Government now hopes that the Green Flag Guys will gradually grow weaker and weaker as paychecks are not paid to adherents and that in the end the Qathafis will be there waiting to be arrested (by someone).  Unfortunately for that theory, it is unlikely that the Qathafis will run out of money any time soon.  People in that part of the workd are very canny about money.  They are very good at "ratholing' funds, especially in the form of specie.  It is likely that, as in Saddam's Iraq, large amount of cash are stashed "here and there" around the country, especially in the capital.  No fly zone?  General Mattis told the Congress today that such an operation would involve a lot of aircraft and preliminary strikes against air defense and airfield targets.  They seem to have noticed that so far there has been little activity by the Libyan Air Force.  A no fly zone would have little effect on the situation.   Would we halt commercial air flights out of Tripoli?  I would bet not.  Covert advice and training of the Red Green Black flag guys?  Heavens no!

Prospects?  - civil war for some time.  pl