After listening to Obama's speech last night and observing the relative lack of air action today I would say that Obama appears to be intent on seizing defeat from the jaws of victory.
He and his political cronies in the WH and in Chicago are, to say the least, unenthusiastic about regime change in Libya or anywhere else in the ME. Why is that? Hmmm.
Obama's lukewarm and self contradicting statements have produced what is at least for the moment, operational paralysis. Think about it, if you were Carter Ham or any number of other NATO senior officers how could you avoid thinking that you are very exposed as a probable scape goat if a claim is made that you somehow exceeded your "instructions?"
The rebels are a rabble? Certainly, but so are Qathafi's people. The rebel "ranks" may contain people who fought us in Iraq? Probably, but we do not actually know that except on the word of Qathafi and persistent suggestions in the MSM by people who have no way to know.
NATO air power is ineffective in built up areas? Rubbish. Go look at the satellite photographs of these towns, Sirte, etc., on Google Earth. They are mostly open space with a few palm trees. The tanks, rocket artillery launchers, armored personnel carriers and AAA guns on trucks of Qathafi's people are all quite exposed. USAF has now brought AC-130s and A-10s into the action. These aircraft are well suited for engagement of targets in these towns or anywhere along the road. The metal masses in these weapons are very detectable by the aircraft night or day.
Obama should think about the political effect here in the US of defeat by Qathafi's puny forces. He wants to be re-elected? It would be interesting to see how his prospects would be affected by Qathafi's continuing presence in Tripoli in November 2012 and the mockery that the Republicans will rain down on him over his present weakness. pl
somebody
Why is it that I think you are Israeli? Israeli political warfar on this subject is winning because it controls the US Congress and most of the media. Keep it up and you can live with Qathafi, assad, Salih et al forever. pl
Posted by: Patrick Lang | 30 March 2011 at 08:23 PM
Mj - Yes, since the paramilitary officers of CIA/SAD are almost all former Special Forces, Delta or SEALs.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 30 March 2011 at 08:45 PM
Colonel Lang-
This is our fight!
Sir, my question would be about the French: Surely they had a plan going into this? Would not their center of gravity have been MQ's political base? and not his armed forces, although smashing them before Benghazi was a necessity? Continuing this destruction as needed?
Say would not the first guess be for instance having someone high in MQ's organization . . . ?
They must have had a plan which didn't include being chased back across the desert . . .
Posted by: seydlitz89 | 30 March 2011 at 08:46 PM
Surprise, surprise!
Reuters reports that President Obama signed a "finding" for "covert" help (via the CIA) to the Libyan rebels, "within the last two or three weeks".
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/30/us-libya-usa-order-idUSTRE72T6H220110330
Of course, the "covert" operation is not covert to those on the receiving end of it. To them there is nothing secret about it.
I saw some news reports that the rebel advance had stalled out to some degree and there had been a retreat of sorts from one area.
People who want to support those opposing Qathafi should make it clear that his opponents don't need covert help, they need overt help.
The U.S. and the CIA are going to "covert" themselves into a big fat mess if they don't watch out.
Posted by: robt willmann | 30 March 2011 at 10:01 PM
It's no secret that Khalifa Hifter is the rebel military commander....except to the American public.
Posted by: dh | 30 March 2011 at 11:03 PM
Its getting to the point where I can't read Andrew Sullivan at all.
A quote: "It's so surreal, so discordant with what the president has told the American people, so fantastically contrary to everything he campaigned on, that I will simply wait for more confirmation than this before commenting further. I simply cannot believe it. I know the president is not against all wars - just dumb ones. But could any war be dumber than this - in a place with no potential for civil society, wrecked by totalitarianism, riven by tribalism, in defense of rebels we do not know and who are clearly insufficient to the task?
By all means keep the no-fly zone to protect unarmed civilians from brute military force. But that must be the total sum of the commitment."
-------
I want to ask him what the hell good he expects to come from a genteel, hands-off intervention. He claims not to want a stalemate in Libya and then advocates in favor of one.
Posted by: Medicine Man | 31 March 2011 at 12:17 AM
"Of course, the "covert" operation is not covert to those on the receiving end of it. To them there is nothing secret about it."
The subject of a famous Doonesbury cartoon:
PHRED: You wretched soul! Did this happen during the secret bombings?
OLD MAN WITH PITCHFORK: Secret bombings? Boy, there wasn't any secret about them! Everyone here knew! I did, and my wife, she knew, too! She was with me, and I remarked on them!
OLD MAN: I said "Look, Martha, here come the bombs!"
OLD WOMAN: It's true, he did.
That aside, I hope Obama has the stuff to see this thing through.
Posted by: Stephanie | 31 March 2011 at 12:26 AM
PL! Does a CIA deployment in Libya covert or overt or whatever make sense? I would think we (the US) and its allies know almost as much about Libya as any country in the world! But maybe not. Even the 2-300 foot deep Libyan OPS centers were built by EU companies. I guess deep penetrators and no-fly are incompatible?
Posted by: William R. Cumming | 31 March 2011 at 02:18 AM
"He and his political cronies in the WH and in Chicago are, to say the least, unenthusiastic about regime change in Libya or anywhere else in the ME. Why is that? Hmmm."
Because it a violation of the United States Constitution.
Secondly, we have no "direct" national security interests. Third, this was not about stopping genocide nor protecting peaceful protesters. Peaceful protesters do not carry and use weapons. This is about getting involved in a civil war.
Here is my question on regime change.
When are we going to get involved in, Chad, West Congo, Sudan, DRC, Darfur, Myanmar and the others who kill for fun? What them brown people not worth it? By the way, when are we going to tell the Saudis to stop there games with its people and neighbors?
I ask these questions regarding Libya. Who are the rebels? What is the strategy? What is the end game? Who is propelling all of this this and why? IRI? NDI? The Israelis? Who is the puppet master on this one?
Posted by: Jake | 31 March 2011 at 08:50 AM
Jake,
you forgot:
Is there a puppet master? Or is this just spontaneous disorder that people from all sides are trying to control - Qathafi from his side, and NATO pragmatically and opportunistically from the other, since they may presume that Libya will be easier and more stable without the eccentric nuisance that Qathafi has proven to be - i.e. as an opportunity to fix that, and to provide a justification for its existence?
Besides, what is the Israeli position on Qathafi? Does Israel support Qathafi? I have so far not found anything specific on that. If they are for him because he represents the status quo, they must be in friction with NATO on intervention.
Is NATO trying to outflank Israel - by trying to install someone (like that foreign minister, recently defected) who is amenable to NATO and Israel in order to stop Israeli support for Qathafi, if that is the Israeli policy?
Posted by: confusedponderer | 31 March 2011 at 09:54 AM
Well now the fig leaf of NATO cover. How big or small will the fig leaf be?
The transfer to NATO will not deceive those like me that believe MQ has to be put out of business not allowed to squirm out of accountabililty.
By the way how many countries still recognize MQ as the head of the LIBYAN government and how many the insurgency? How about US?
Posted by: William R. Cumming | 31 March 2011 at 09:58 AM
or maybe we shouldn't have ever stuck our noses in this mess in the first place?
Posted by: zot23 | 31 March 2011 at 11:55 AM
confusedponderer,
There is always a puppet master....
If we are that stupid to walk into something like spontaneous disorder. We have learned zero from Somalia. Israel might be a stretch on my part, but why do I have this sick feeling that some where in the middle of this is Israeli Intelligence? Can it also be oil? Or maybe destabilization is just what it wants.
NATO? They are a bigger disaster than Japan. Hold your breath we are going to get stuck with this one....
But I also do not disagree with you either. There is a power play going on. The question is? Who's....
Posted by: Jake | 31 March 2011 at 01:47 PM
A quick gooooogle of Khalifa Hifter produced, as the 6th hit, the following:
"Khalifa Hifter - Vienna, VA | MyLife™
Try the people finder at MyLife™ to find Khalifa Hifter and other old friends from Vienna. Get back in touch today.”
Maybe Gadaffy Duck can use that link to “get back in touch” with Hifter?
Mark
Posted by: Frabjous | 31 March 2011 at 02:04 PM
The suggestion among British military aircrew is that since implementation of the NFZ being handed to NATO is a disaster for the rebels.
NATO appears to make decisions by committee and the politicians have tied its hands behind its back anyway. Hence no CAS for the last Two days......
Posted by: walrus | 31 March 2011 at 04:59 PM
walrus, NATO ought to go the way of the dodo and the Warsaw Treaty Organization.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 31 March 2011 at 05:45 PM
The mantra of TAC (Tactical Air Command) used to be Gain air superiority, interdict the battlefield and provide close support
It appears as though NATO may be skipping the second step and is focusing on telegenic targets like tanks.
If they concentrated on stopping all eastbound traffic from leaving Tripoli, the Libyan Army would run out of fuel and supplies quickly.
Posted by: Bob Bernard | 31 March 2011 at 07:02 PM
About Khalifa Hifter:
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/libyan-rebel-general-fairfax-virginia/story?id=13256324&page=1
Haftr, who lived in Fairfax, Va., until recent weeks when he returned to join the rebellion against Moammar Gadhafi, was appointed to lead the rebel army earlier this month. His top aides appear to be his sons.
Posted by: The beaver | 01 April 2011 at 11:40 AM