#Obama, soon to be defeated in Libya?

 
After listening to Obama's speech last night and observing the relative lack of air action today I would say that Obama appears to be intent on seizing defeat from the jaws of victory.

He and his political cronies in the WH and in Chicago are, to say the least, unenthusiastic about regime change in Libya or anywhere else in the ME.  Why is that?  Hmmm. 

Obama's lukewarm and self contradicting statements have produced what is at least for the moment, operational paralysis.  Think about it, if you were Carter Ham or any number of other NATO senior officers how could you avoid thinking that you are very exposed as a probable scape goat if a claim is made that you somehow exceeded your "instructions?"

The rebels are a rabble?  Certainly, but so are Qathafi's people.  The rebel "ranks" may contain people who fought us in Iraq?  Probably, but we do not actually know that except on the word of Qathafi and persistent suggestions in the MSM by people who have no way to know.

NATO air power is ineffective in built up areas?  Rubbish.  Go look at the satellite photographs of these towns, Sirte, etc., on Google Earth.  They are mostly open space with a few palm trees.  The tanks, rocket artillery launchers, armored personnel carriers and AAA guns on trucks of Qathafi's people are all quite exposed.  USAF has now brought AC-130s and A-10s into the action.  These aircraft are well suited for engagement of targets in these towns or anywhere along the road.  The metal masses in these weapons are very detectable by the aircraft night or day.

Obama should think about the political effect here in the US of defeat by Qathafi's puny forces.  He wants to be re-elected?  It would be interesting to see how his prospects would be affected by Qathafi's continuing presence in Tripoli in November 2012 and the mockery that the Republicans will rain down on him over his present weakness.  pl

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

Thanks PL! You have articulated what I have been thinking.
What can the WH be thinking? There was absolutely no purpose to this exercise if MQ stays anywhere on Libyan soil.

[TamBram]

Yes, I've been reading today about the rebels in retreat, and airpower not deployed.
Why would Obama do this? I am mystified.

[Trent]

Google Earth.

[Ken Hoop]

Maybe someone mildly critical of neocon/Israeli Likudist interests here can explain to me why Billy Kristol the Bold supports the attack. A feint? Shuck and jive?

A bad even desperate grope to maintain Am. Empire influence in the region is the best I can hope for.

[Lysander]

Am I paranoid to suspect that there are behind the scenes wheeling and dealing about which we are not privy? Could the rebels be getting the short end of that deal?

Or is it that taking Sirte is not as easy as one thought? Perhaps after 41 years MQ has payed off enough people to like him? Or maybe they hate him but hate foreigners bombing their country even more? How would Americans have felt if Great Britain intervened on behalf of the CSA during our civil war?

And now taking Sirte means that you will have to bomb civilian areas and kill a lot of civilians? That's not at all consistent with a "humanitarian war."

Or maybe the rebels prefer others doing their fighting for them? "take that hill all by ourselves? What if someone gets hurt? Can't you just bomb it?"

But looking at the bright side, if all this goes to hell in a hand basket, then they (TPTB) will be less inclined to attack Syria. Now THAT would be a real disaster.

My apologies if I'm being snide, but I just hate this whole damned thing.

[Lysander]

P.S. As for Obama's reelection chances, maybe he has a premonition that all that Federal Reserve money printing will finally come home to roost and doesn't want to be left holding the bag. And yet, despite his best efforts, he'll probably get reelected anyway.

[Grimgrin]

Ken Hoop: Both the anti-war left and the neoconservative right are trying to pretend that Libya and Iraq are the same situation. The left because if they are the same situation, it justifies their opposition to the intervention in Libya. The right, I suspect, because a success in Libya can be trumpeted as a vindication of their principles and previous support for the war in Iraq.

[JohnH]

"Obama's lukewarm and self contradicting statements have produced what is at least for the moment, operational paralysis."

That's classic Obama--make a noble speech and chuck the rest over the fence for someone else to clean up the mess. It happened on health care, which he never deigned to sell to the American people. It happened on the effort to clean up Wall Street.

Obama believes in nothing and advocates for nothing. He only shows up to strut at maximum visibility moments and then disappears like a termite.

[different clue]

I hope the rebels can win even if it raises Obama's re-election chances. Surely we can find some other way to bring Obama's chances back down again.

I will again offer my previous suggestion that every disgruntled former Obama supporter register Republican just long enough to vote for the most plausibly electable Republican in their state's primary. If hideous gargoyles like Palin or Bachmann or Huckabee or other such can be denied the nomination; then people like me will not be driven to vote for Obama again out of fear of a Hideous Gargoyle Administration.

[graywolf]

No surprise here.
Narcissistic empty suit acts like....a narcissistic empty suit.
People get the government they deserve.

[The Twisted Genius]

In the words of Chester Riley, "What a revolting development this is." While the politicians engage in never ending talmudic debates about what to do and what not to do, the rebels are trying to take on T-72s with Toyota pickups. If any situation calls out for Obama to stop trying to be the great compromiser and just be an angry black man, this is it. He needs to get on the phone with Ham and make perfectly clear that he is to destroy every piece of military hardware that Qathafi has as fast as he possibly can and that he will absolutely back him up in this endeavor. Too bad it will never happen. Now NATO politicians are worried about flickerings of Al Qaeda among the rebel forces. Do they know how pitiful they sound?

[The Twisted Genius]

Lysander,

I would imagine that the Confederacy would have been very happy if Great Britain intervened on their behalf. Just like General Washington was very happy when the French Army and Navy intervened on the rebel's behalf at Yorktown.

[Medicine Man]

I wonder if we're witnessing the spectacle of US foreign policy literally being steered from day to day by competing lobbies?

[clifford kiracofe]

1. On the ground in Bin Jawwad today:

"But Gadhafi forces didn't need aircraft here. Instead, they showered the rebels with a barrage of artillery fire, followed by small arms fire, a ground offensive and strikes from houses inside the village. The rebels fled in response, and their rudimentary military operation collapsed..."

"But as the thumps of artillery landing came closer and closer, Mohammed and his fellow fighters began moving back along the two-lane highway, creating a convoy of close to 1,000 vehicles.

"The closer the sounds, the more panicked they became. The flank on the ridge collapsed in minutes as the rebels drove back. Most it turned out had no intention of fighting when it mattered...."

"Gadhafi forces moved in from both the desert and the sea side. Then the pro-Gadhafi residents opened fire from their homes.

"The rebels were caught completely flatfooted, with the fighters and those simply cheering them on intermixed in a spree of gunfire. Those who celebrated began shooting aimlessly. Those who could fight tried to build their line again. Mostly, the rebels panicked..."
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/29/111237/a-day-of-battle-shows-libyan-rebels.html#ixzz1I2kJaveg

So...

2. Does anyone believe there are more than a couple hundred or so AQ in the entire Maghreb?

3. The rebels could do with some experienced fighters it would appear. There was one report that 25 with experience outside the country were recruited from a village in the eastern region. Can't hurt it would seem.

4. Reports that US might give weapons to rebels but they already have weapons...???

Perhaps more, and less dainty, air strikes would help some.

[ked]

"I will again offer my previous suggestion that every disgruntled former Obama supporter register Republican just long enough to vote for the most plausibly electable Republican in their state's primary."

Forget that shit. They deserve the hideous gargoyles, that's about all that's left in the once GOP. Let it complete its suicide - & employ no extraordinary means.

[Twit]

TTG, "flickerings of al Qaeda" indeed. Well put sir. It's really incredible (and telling) how institutionalized the nonsense idea of al Qaeda as some race of superhumans has become.

As you say, pitiful.

[Lysander]

TTG, I was raised on McPherson's "Battle Cry Freedom" and was a Licolnite until fairly recently. Then I started seeing things in a neo-confederate light (I credit the Ron Paul movement.)

How the world would be different if the British had followed the interventionist impulse back then. But that is topic for far more learned minds than my own.

[different clue]

Ked,

They may well deserve the hideous gargoyles. The problem is that the rest of us will risk getting the hideous gargoyles if that is what the Republicans nominate. That is a risk which will make me vote for Obama as much as I would rather not.

Whereas if the worst that could happen is a President Romney or a President Barbour, then I will feel free to vote some third party with a desirable wish list.

I am not yet ready for "better an end with horror than horror without end".

[Charlie Wilson]

Easy does it colonel. You gave up hunting animals. Why this antipathy to Libyans. I don't get it.

[Patrick Lang]

Charlie

Apparently, unlike you, I can distinguish between good and evil. Qathafi = evil. The rebellion = good. I stopped hunting. I never became a pacifist. Tell your Qathafist friends that surrender or flight is always an option. pl

[Marcus]

"People get the government they deserve." And the soldiers they deserve? Do the rebels have the skills necessary to win this rebellion? If not, where are they going to get the trained leaders and soldiers?

On the reelection question, IMHO,the economy will dominate. I don't think most voters care who they buy the oil from as long as it stays cheap. What do you honestly think is worse for 4-more-years, $4 gas or MQ staying in power?

[Jose]

Let me make this perfectly clears, you folks have it all wrong.

FoolBama is in deep thought and analysis making his "Final Four" picks.

You have to have priorities in life, Sirte lighting the world on fire, wait, where is Hillary?

[somebody]

Dear Colonel Lang,

you mean he is not going to win like the US would have done in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan had the right person been president?

We call it "Dolchstosslegende" in my country. It was the run up to fascism.

[crf]

Maybe one of the US's NATO partners asked for a few days (or something like that) to negotiate with Qathafi to leave?

(If so, I just hope it wasn't Italy that asked ...)

[William R. Cumming]

Medicine Man! Agree!

I think the need of the American voter for some clear cut reason to vote against someone for President--rarely do they vote for someone--is now at hand.
Not sure who agrees but I now think that MQ's survival will destroy President Obama remaining end of his first and only term. It is rapidly becoming obvious that the independent voter, not the Republicans or Dems will determine the outcome of the election. Those independents in my view and of course could be wrong are hoping for someone who is competent to relieve the USA from the distressful lack of success foreign and domestic over last couple of decades. This is an amazing time with over 25 nation-states largely disrupted by warfare, natural or man-made hazards impacting their markets, economy and culture. And as for accountability the head of TEPO Tokyo Electric and Power, he has not been found for the last two weeks. Last seen crying on TV. {Seppekku]?
So now an unseasoned President wobbles between various points of view without really having his own vision, and if he does have one not being able to convince even his close advisors. Troubling.