Just to clarify my views on the Libyan revolt and its likely progress.
- Someone has gotten the rebels up off their haunches and headed back to the west. Who that someone might be is, at this point, a bit of a mystery. The passage of time will undoubtedly clarify that point.
- The provision of air support to the rebels has made a decisive difference in tihs civil war. All the lawyerly obscurantism about the UN Resolution cannot obscure the fact that a NATO led coalition, supported by the US is going to drive Qathafi's forces all the way back to Tripoli with the rebels following along behind on the coast road.
- Qathafi's "forces" are extremely brittle. They have already begun to run from air attacks or even the sound of aircraft, abandoning their equipment and supplies as they flee in civilian vehicles. It is not necessary to arm or supply the rebels. Qathafi's disintegrating forces will provide the needed materiel as they withdraw.
- As the rebels approach Tripoli the populace will rise again. How long will all this take? As I have written elsewhere, an outside estimate of six months is reasonable. The actuality may be a considerably shorter departure date for Qathafi.
- Am I concerned about an Islamist "takeover" in Libya? No. The chance that Islamist parties are likely successors in power in any of the presently disputed countries is minimal. There are far too many non-Islamist political forces in all these coutries for the Islamists to rise to power. Will they still exist in these places? Yes, but they will not rule. pl