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01 March 2011

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William R. Cumming

NMS! I found the PIMCO move also of great interest. Wish I understood better its implicit rejection of FED policy.

Clifford Kiracofe

Mark Logan, All,

I noted earlier the diplomatic issue of recognition and policy.

Now France has taken the key step of recognizing the Benghazi based opposition government. France can now unilaterally support Benghazi with material aid as requested. Paris does not now need pretexts such as the tenuous and not well established doctrine of humanitarian intervention.

Other governments, such as our own, which continue to recognize Q's regime, and have not suspended relations with it/withdrawn recognition, are in a different position with respect to diplomacy and international law.

"The European Parliament is encouraging EU member states to recognize the opposition government. The council representatives were in Strasbourg, the parliament's base, earlier this week, but EU policy is normally to recognize states, not governments."
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i_5YT3bFNlQz2FxBfiwkfo6EoSnQ?docId=15fd127baa1e4c7e907bf3b94d1503e6

Aside from technical issues regarding recognition, the matter is significant. Technical issues of recognizing governments relate to extent of control over territory and other factors.

If diplomatic recognition is granted to the Transitional National Council and thus withdrawn from Q, then a pretext to help the opposition is not needed. One simply backs up the TNC to the extent of the request by the government with whom you have relations.

In part, the French seem to be trying to redeem themselves after the scandals relating to Tunisia. The French diplo establishment has been extremely unhappy with Sarko and his flighty narcissistic persona and antics.

William R. Cumming

Dr. Kiracofe! Have the insurgents asked for recognition? How and when? Was the French decision self-initiated?

JoeC

WRC -

Bill Gross was on Nightly Business Report last night and explained that PIMCO bailed out of treasuries as he believes QE2 will end as scheduled this summer and at that point the value of existing treasuries will drop significantly as their yields rise when non-FED buyers demand more appropriate yields. He said he would be back in the market buying treasuries after this happens.

William R. Cumming

JoeC! I would expect QE3 and QE4 to begin late summer.
My guess is that PIMCO will not be back in Treasuries. Time will tell.

Norbert M. Salamon

Mr Cumming:

you may wish to read the following:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/erste-oil-special-report-force-majeure-middle-east

While the analysis is quite good, there is a small problem with shale gas issue, does not acknowledge extremely fast depletion rates, nor does mention actual cost of production [which is considerably higher than present gas pricing in USA]

William R. Cumming

NSM! Thanks for the link. Very helpful.

walrus

Reports of police firing on protesters in Saudi Arabia. No suggestion of live ammunition, and it was apparently a small protest of around 100 Shia from what I can gather. This may have a salutary effect on oil prices today.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/10/AR2011031003269.html


As I have said before, Obama is temperamentally unable to deal with current events at the pace they are now unfolding.

To be fair, it would tax anyone, but the narcissist is never capable of chunking a problem down into more manageable bits and then delegating them to subordinates.

Then of course their is the question of the quality and bias of the advice he is already receiving.

Patrick Lang

walrus

"No suggestion of live ammunition,"

As opposed to what, blanks? pl

CTuttle

I trained with and supported the 10th SFG for 5 years at Ft Devens...! It's sickening to hear how much the 10th and other Groups have been pillaged and plundered by Blackwater, etal, and, the perversion of their mission orientation towards the misbegotten COIN ops of AfPak and Irak...!

walrus

Col. Lang, my mistake, I should have said "ball".

John Kirkman

It appears the rebels are losing steam because Gaddafi forces are using superior firepower and have complete control of the air. It might be possible for the rebels to win with relatively small arms on the ground if they were adequately led, and had anti-tank weapons, but there is no way to beat airpower except with superior airpower.
One problem the Gaddafi air force might encounter is maintenance problems with their Russian equipment. Modern aircraft need intense maintenance schedules to keep flying, combat builds flight hours quickly, and it’s also possible that some of the people fleeing the country are foreign mechanics who normally service the aircraft. The rebels might be able to disable the source of jet fuel for the Gaddafi aircraft too. Still, control of the air is at least one key and trained and capable NCO’s with combat experience who speak the local language are probably rare among the rebel force.
The rebels need a Lafayette, and some help from our side that is less than a declaration of war. As a taxpayer I would trade withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan for a small force of Legionnaires sent to fight Gaddafi. A week recruiting in Paris and a couple of C-130’s would help, and it is a symptom of our countries decline that dithering in DC is called leadership. Franco must be smiling somewhere, a “loyal friend and ally of the United States” Nixon said, as Gaddafi It appears the rebels are losing steam because Gaddafi forces are using superior firepower and have complete control of the air. It might be possible for the rebels to win with relatively small arms on the ground if they were adequately led, and had anti-tank weapons, but there is no way to beat airpower except with superior airpower.
One problem the Gaddafi air force might encounter is maintenance problems with their Russian equipment. Modern aircraft need intense maintenance schedules to keep flying, combat builds flight hours quickly, and it’s also possible that some of the people fleeing the country are foreign mechanics who normally service the aircraft. The rebels might be able to disable the source of jet fuel for the Gaddafi aircraft too. Still, control of the air is at least one key and trained and capable NCO’s with combat experience who speak the local language are probably rare among the rebel force.
The rebels need a Lafayette, and some help from our side that is less than a declaration of war. As a taxpayer I would trade withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan for a small force of Legionnaires sent to fight Gaddafi. A week recruiting in Paris and a couple of C-130’s would help, and it is a symptom of our countries decline that dithering in DC is called leadership. Franco must be smiling somewhere, a “loyal friend and ally of the United States” Nixon said, as Gaddafi smiled on.

William R. Cumming

IMO it is insurgent disorganization rather than MQ organization and weapons that is tipping the situation back to MQ! And beneath the surface so far the international condemnation of MQ is relatively meaningless. My guess is the collapse of the insurgents will come before the end of March and then the fun begins as large numbers of the insurgents look for asylum elsewhere.

steve

At least Sarkozy and Cameron are entertaining air strikes, albeit within the slow-moving and cumbersome EU framework.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/11/nicolas-sarkozy-libya-air-strikes

Hopefully, whatever the EU decides will be timely.

I have no problem with the EU, as opposed to the US, taking the military lead in this. They are certainly capable in a military sense. My concern is that the US should be, and should've been, outfront on Libya at least diplomatically, if not militarily.

William R. Cumming

Zawiya has been recaptured by MQ supporters?

clifford kiracofe


WASHINGTON - The new leader of Libya's opposition military spent the past two decades in suburban Virginia but felt compelled — even in his late-60s — to return to the battlefield in his homeland, according to people who know him.

Khalifa Hifter was once a top military officer for Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, but after a disastrous military adventure in Chad in the late 1980s, Hifter switched to the anti-Gadhafi opposition. In the early 1990s, he moved to suburban Virginia, where he established a life but maintained ties to anti-Gadhafi groups.

Late last week, Hifter was appointed to lead the rebel army, which has been in chaos for weeks. He is the third such leader in less than a month, and rebels interviewed in Libya openly voiced distrust for the most recent leader, Abdel Fatah Younes, who had been at Gadhafi's side until just a month ago.

At a news conference Thursday, the rebel's military spokesman said Younes will stay as Hifter's chief of staff, and added that the army — such as it is — would need "weeks" of training.
Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/26/111109/new-rebel-leader-spent-much-of.html#ixzz1Hno9dugT

Sancho Pineland

Seriously?

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