I have spent the last 24 hours trying to understand what the US Government's understanding might be of the situation in Libya and what, if anything, they might want to do about it.
1- Estimate: The government only yesterday came to realize that there is little chance that the rebels presently have the will or the strength needed to seize Tripoli and depose MQ. Until then, they believed that the enthusiasm of the rebels would generate a moral climate that would swell as they approached Tripoli and that the dictator and his supporters would lose heart and just give up. Why did hey think that this tenacious lunatic would decide to flee? Well, Mubarak left, didn't he? Aren't all people the same? Well, maybe not. The likelihood of a prolonged state of civil war is now recognised. Clinton said as much before the Congress today.
2- What to do?: They have no idea. Having seized Libya's reachable assets (including those of the Qathafis) the US Government now hopes that the Green Flag Guys will gradually grow weaker and weaker as paychecks are not paid to adherents and that in the end the Qathafis will be there waiting to be arrested (by someone). Unfortunately for that theory, it is unlikely that the Qathafis will run out of money any time soon. People in that part of the workd are very canny about money. They are very good at "ratholing' funds, especially in the form of specie. It is likely that, as in Saddam's Iraq, large amount of cash are stashed "here and there" around the country, especially in the capital. No fly zone? General Mattis told the Congress today that such an operation would involve a lot of aircraft and preliminary strikes against air defense and airfield targets. They seem to have noticed that so far there has been little activity by the Libyan Air Force. A no fly zone would have little effect on the situation. Would we halt commercial air flights out of Tripoli? I would bet not. Covert advice and training of the Red Green Black flag guys? Heavens no!
Prospects? - civil war for some time. pl