Yusuf al-Misry 18 Feb 2011

 
The arms wrestling match in Egypt is entering an important phase. More than 2 million gathered Today (Friday) at Tahrir Sq. The MBs tried, as expected, to color the protest with a chain of prayers. But soon after, the protesters went back to their demands of dismissing the cabinet of Shafiq and the implentation of the rest of the demands including a "civil state". Details aside, the significance of Today's protest lies in the fact that it is a message to the military and to the aides of former President Mubarak that there is to be no "let down." My concern now is about next Friday. Sheikh Qaradawy, a prominent Islamic figure called for giving the military a chance. He said that God created earth in 6 days while he could creat it in a second. He also called for ending strikes and patience. This was a direct consequence of negotiations between the MBs and the military.

Qaradawy ,who resides in Qatar in a self imposed exile for the last 30 years, was not totally in sync with the military. But he caused some doubts about the call for a peaceful gathering every Friday to exert pressure on the Generals' council.

Col Lang is touching on an issue that preoccupies everyone here. That is the legality of writing a new constitution by an illegal military council. It is a bit foggy in its formulation as it was Mubarak who ordered modifications in certain articles of the constitution in his last attempt to convince the populace that he is changing. The idea behind the current effort to change some articles in the previous constitution was to guarantee that next elections, presidential and parliamentary, will be free. These elections will be held in 6 months. The main demand after these elections is to form a constitutional committee to write a new constitution. I am not sure if it will be possible at that point to change the nature of government to a parliamentary rule. It will be difficult to hold ,once again, another presidential and parliamentary elections to fit the new system.

But the basic thing that will decide the outcome of all this will be to sustain the pressure. Next Friday will be very important particularly that symbols of the deposed regime are trying desperately to make a come back. Finance from very corrupt "business men" is available and high ranking officers in the state security service are devoted full time to carry on what people here call "counter revolution". I know that Today's Tahrir Sq. sent a very depressive message to these guys. But as I said we do not know what will happen next Friday. Best possible scenario is a very large gathering in Tahrir and Alexandria.

Any "legal" or "constitutional" outcome of what happened will be calibrated by whether or not the population will sustain the pressure. As for the MBs , I am less worried now. In fact, I think they, as a platform and ideology, are weakened. The proof is that they are dropping many points in their tradional demands. They, for example, accepted the idea of forming a non-religious political party, they also accept what Egyptians call "a civil government" despite our failure to dismiss the 2ed article of the constitution which states that Islamic Sharia is "a main source of laws". It was president Sadat who introduced this article in 1972 and since then it has always been there. But the general picture testifies to obvious transformation in the MBs. The old guard are much less powerful today than before. It is still basically a religious group but I just wanted to say that no player in the current situation in Egypt could be immune from change. History will shoe us later the extent of the changes inside this movement. After all. the Minerva owl flys only at night.

Yusuf al-Misry

 

Comments

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Seems to me Israel (and its Lobby in the US) has the biggest stake in a counter-revolution, hard or soft, which would keep the present Egypt-Israel "peace" treaty and special arrangements in tact.

The treaty, securing Israel's southern flank, allowed Israel a "free hand" to crush Palestinians and to engage in agressive wars.

Democratization in Egypt would logically mean of domestic politics AND foreign policy.

[FB Ali]

I do not think Yusuf is correct in his assessment that there has been a transformation in the MB. They are behaving exactly as political Islamists would be expected to. Of course, many of their supporters are more religious than ‘political’, hence they have to keep their message oriented towards their concerns as well; they have been doing that in the past, and will continue to do so in the future. However, this will not affect their policies, which will be those that political Islamists can be expected to follow under these circumstances.

The concerns about the legality of the constitutional process in Egypt are valid, but, I would suggest, not of great practical significance. What really matters at the moment is to effect a transition from the present ad hoc set up to one which meets the desire of the people to see a process of meaningful change in place. Compared to that imperative, legality must take a back seat.

[LeaNder]

Democratization in Egypt would logically mean of domestic politics AND foreign policy.

Ultimately the Egypt-Israel "peace" treaty was Janus faced. At one side lately the high security control of entrance into the Gaza (lately) on the other the exhibition the Protocols in a museum next to the Torah and/or the Talmud (both? I forget), as if it were an authentic text of the Jewish tradition,and a soap opera based on the same material. Now why would any thinking Israeli want a "peace treaty" like that?

The ideal outcome, and I think it is possible, would be that Egypt respects the treaty but re-interprets it in a way that it doesn't only enforce on it's side what Israel considers correct. Or simply takes over the control of Gaza, integrating it into Egypt, which I feel Israel would prefer.

I agree with our host and you in advance if you consider my comment naive, I probably am in political matters.

[Jane]

I wish Egypt well. Overthrowing a regime is only a first step. The greatest challenge is instituting a stable and democratic and just replacement.

[Charles I]

No, Clifford, tho I know what you mean, to me, as before, the Egyptian people have the biggest stake in everything about this.

[walrus]

A group of European economists are now predicting an "Oil price shock" for America as a consequence of the destabilisation of Middle Eastern regimes and continued depreciation of the American dollar.

Their belief is that the post 1945 world order is crumbling very quickly now and will be replaced by a new arrangement. Their view is that Governments, the media, punditry and commentators have been deliberately avoiding talking about the increasing instability of international financial systems that they believe has been evident for the last Five or more years.

There are elements of schadenfreud or European snark in their depiction of Western Governments caught flat footed by developments in the Middle East. They paint the West, lead by America, as "backward looking."

In my opinion, the death grip that corporate interests (including AIPAC) have on all the American legislatures precludes rational analysis of Americas best interests, both domestic and foreign, let alone a coherent set of strategies to address them. The Obama Administrations ongoing late and lukewarm response to Middle Eastern events being a case in point.

I also suspect that there are leaders outside the Middle East who are disconcerted by what has happened in Egypt. The longer Washington remains paralysed, the worse the eventual disruption will be. Events in Madison, Wisconsin are a tiny harbinger of what must eventually come.

http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-52-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-World-geopolitical-breakup-End-of-2011-Fall-of-the-Petro-dollar-wall-and_a5927.html

[b]

It doesn't need Egyptian billionaires to finance the counter-revolution. This will do: U.S. pledges $150 million to help Egypt's transition

"I'm pleased to announce today we will be reprogramming $150 million for Egypt to put ourselves in a position to support the transition there and assist with their economic recovery," Clinton said.

The money is not for putting Egyptians "in a position to support the transition".

The revolution in Egypt should probal read this as "Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes"

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Leander,
Yes, some form of reinterpretation by Egypt would be an option.

Reports of 50,000 people in Rafah rising in support of the opposition some days ago. So pressure is on to open up the flow there one would think.

Charles I,
Yes, of course; but I meant outside actors and was not clear enough in my comment.

The Israelis, as Col. Lang has indicated, are good at assassination and propaganda. They already have the propaganda mill rolling here in the US. Now for some timely assassinations in Egypt...?

[Yusuf Al-Misry]

FB Ali..The transformation of the MBs started happening when the elders of the organization accepted the views of what we call "the 70s generation". The elders do not feel comfortable with demonstrations and strikes,,etc. There was a Fatwa that popular revolt is "haram" (I explained that in an earlier post. You have to look at how the so called Young Ikhwan pulled the organization in what it considered a risky road.
As I said the Brothers did not cease to be a religious organization. But the shift in the social environment has its impact on its views..it will never cease to be a religious organization but there are many versions of these organization, We need time to assess the magnitude of the impact that happened. (one quick unrelated note: watch what is happening in Libya. It is pretty serous and very bloody particularly in the eastern provinces which have a different tribal groups and historical record of tension with the West,,i,e, Tripoli)

[The beaver]

Oops, Yvet(Lieberman) will start his threat again:
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/02/18/bahrain-unrest-iranian-suez-cruise-reverberate/

State media say Egypt has agreed to let two Iranian naval vessels transit the Suez Canal, a move that comes despite expressions of concern by Israeli officials.

State-run news agency MENA said Friday that authorities approved a request from Iranian diplomats who offered assurances that the two ships won’t have weapons or nuclear or chemical material.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

"One of the most significant youth rebellions is still under way at al Azhar University, whose centuries-old reputation as the center of Islamic scholarship was tarnished by the Mubarak regime buying off clerics and quashing dissent. Hundreds of Azhar students, distinguished from other protesters by their robes and head wraps, are extending calls for reform to their own institution, demanding elected administrators and financial independence from the government.

They'd also like to require public-awareness courses for senior clerics, whom they describe as largely oblivious to the harsh realities of Egypt's impoverished population of 80 million. The goal, students said, is to shed Azhar's image as an aloof, state-backed body.

"When my eye was bloody and bandaged, people from all groups would kiss my forehead and tell me, 'This is the role of Azhar that we respect,' " said Anas Sultan, 22, an Azhar student who fought Mubarak-allied mobs alongside other protesters and received four stitches for a head wound. "I felt indescribable pride, but also an enormous responsibility."

Young Islamists were sharply aware that their appearance at the demonstrations could give the impression that the revolution was religious in nature, so they spread out in the crowds and didn't let too many bearded men congregate in one place at the protest camp in downtown Cairo's Tahrir Square."
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/02/18/109037/tolerant-tech-savvy-young-islamists.html

[Fred]

Beaver,

Just what would Israel do if Iran withdrew the warships and sent a 'freedom' flotilla full of food instead. I'm sure they could come up with a couple of tramp steamers and volunteers.

[The beaver]

@ Fred

AIPAC is already working its wonders on behalf of the fatherland and the junior senator from NY has started the march:
http://www.thejewishweek.com/news/national/bipartisan_push_congress_tougher_iran_sanctions

They seem to forget that two Israeli nuclear subs were allowed to transit through the Canal from Israel in 2009 to patrol the sea lanes near the coast of Iran.

[William R. Cumming]

What exactly are the deployments of US active forces-naval and otherwise that could be utilized in Egypt?

[Fred]

Beaver,

Israel has no nuclear powered submarines. As to whether they adapted their nuclear warheads to torpedoes of submarined launch-able cruise missiles I don't know. Perhaps the good Senator would get them to sign the NPT treaty and allow some inspections?

[LeaNder]

Fred, I didn't follow this, but while it does not belong here I was surprised on your rather long comment on: Can it happen here, I decided to not post my rather long own reply... or maybe I wasn't surprised ...

But I vaguely remember speculations about German-Israeli cooperation about mounting the submarines with atomic capacities:

Sorry no English link. But here is something:
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,269409,00.html

[LeaNder]

sorry, I mistook the preview--for editing button-with post.

[The beaver]

@ LeaNder

Correct: German-Israeli coorperation.
Israel's three Dolphin Class diesel-electic submarines are a design based on the Type 209 non-nuclear U-Boat developed by Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft AG (HDW) for the German Navy.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3741797,00.html