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14 February 2011

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Lysander

To stay in power, the junta has to
1) reestablish fear through mass arrests, torture, etc. They are certainly not above trying that, but I suspect that task is beyond them. They will need to do it on a much larger scale.

2) a passive population. But now Egypt seems to have developed a large activist base, and a lot of hangers for whom protesting is a fresh and exiting thing.

Also, Yusuf is very correct in pointing out that there is no Nasser in the junta. Tantawi is a very poor substitute.

Then again, Nasser was not Nasser in 1952. When he first tried to move against Mohamed Naguib in 1954, there were large pro-Naguib protests which briefly returned him to power. Nasser ened up sidelining him on the sly a few months later.

Still, the smart money is not with the junta.

Patrick Lang

Lysander

"the smart money is not with the junta."

What you mean is that you hope you are right. pl

Jake

Lysander

"the smart money is not with the junta."

I rather bet on the Detroit Lions making the Super Bowl next year!


Jake

Yusuf,

What are your thoughts on the Muslim Brotherhood? Colonel Lang, I pose this question to you as well. Is it an asset or threat or both?

Paul Escobar

Jake,

See Yusuf's Feb. 13 posts: 1 & 2.

Lysander

"What you mean is that you hope you are right. pl"

Col Lang, I'd like to believe everyone at SST is hoping I'm right.

The first test is upon us. The junta has banned strikes. Workers are still striking. Either they move to break the strike with force, or they don't. If they do the former and there is no meaningful public protest, then I will have to admit I'm wrong. If they do nothing but urge workers not to strike, then I say any junta whose orders are safely ignored wont last for long.

Norbert M. Salamon

Another intelligent analysis of Egypt's future by a well known ananlyst [at least in Canada];

http://www.ericmargolis.com

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