The saga rolls on, while (as they used to say in the old pulp novels) the plot thickens. Davis remains in prison awaiting trial. Relations between Pakistan and the US continue to be quite strained. And the circle of collateral damage widens.
The facts of the incident that sparked all this are now fairly clear. Davis, in a rental car, was driving around in Lahore in areas where foreigners scarcely ever venture, tailed by two ISI auxiliaries on a motorbike. After an hour or more of trying to shake them off, they both came abreast at a stoplight. He pulled out a gun and, firing through his windscreen, shot them both. Accounts differ as to whether they made any threatening gesture, but one was killed as he was trying to run away.
The backup van that Davis called for came roaring up the wrong way on a one-way street, ran over a cyclist, killing him, then turned around and roared off. Davis was arrested, and weapons, ammo and other paraphernalia were found in the car. On his cell phone were numbers that were later traced to phones in the tribal belt where the Taliban operate, while his camera had pictures of religious schools and military sites.
After some initial fumbling, the US embassy declared him a diplomat on staff with diplomatic immunity, and demanded he be turned over to them. When this didn’t happen, Washington jumped in with both barrels blazing, cancelling meetings and threatening all sorts of reprisals if Davis wasn’t released, including Congressional hints of aid being cut off.
The Zardari government, whose desire to please and placate the US comes second only to its agenda of robbing the country blind, wanted to comply but had to tread warily because of the public outcry over the matter (intensified by the suicide of the wife of one of the men killed). Its strategy was to have the foreign ministry certify to the courts that Davis did, indeed, have diplomatic immunity, but this ran into a roadblock when ministry staff refused to endorse this position, based on the record. (It is being said that the military’s opposition to his release stiffened their spines!)
The Foreign Minister backed his staff, so, in a convenient cabinet reshuffle, he was dropped from this post and a more pliable person appointed; several ministry staff were shuffled around as well. Instead of accepting the alternative portfolio he was offered (in local parlance, a “lucrative” ministry), the former FM held a press conference and put his and the ministry position on the public record. The government had to hastily seek a 3-week case adjournment while it “further researched” the issue of immunity.
The US, concluding that playing the heavy wasn’t achieving much, sent in the ‘good cop’, in the person of Senator Kerry, co-author of the 7.5 billion Pakistan aid bill. He expressed public regret for the deaths, held out the assurance that Davis would be criminally investigated back in the US, and met with the principal Pakistani players. His whirlwind one-day tour didn’t achieve much beyond smuggling out of the country on his plane the three Americans who had been in the backup van (and were being sought by the police and the courts).
Some mysteries still shroud the affair. One, the subject of considerable speculation in Pakistan, is: What was Davis up to? (There are two versions as to whether this is still a mystery to the ISI; one is that he ‘sang’ under interrogation, while the US claims that he made no statement). His undoubted links to people in Taliban territory have spawned the allegation that he was arranging Taliban bombings in Pakistan (it is a settled belief among most Pakistanis that the US wishes to destabilize the country in order to grab its nukes). A more sophisticated version of this is that he facilitated the attacks that had taken place on some ISI targets and the army’s GHQ at the behest of former Afghan intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh (fired by President Karzai at Pakistan’s insistence). While most believe that this was done under CIA orders, some think Davis may have been freelancing for Saleh.
A more ‘innocent’ explanation for these contacts is not being considered, at least publicly. They may merely have been informants that he and his colleagues had set up in the tribal areas to relay information for drone targetting. Incidentally, ever since his arrest drone attacks in the tribal belt have ceased. This may be due to a US desire not to further inflame Pakistani public opinion, or it could be because target information has dried up, or both.
The second mystery in the affair relates to the very odd US reaction. The SOP in such cases is to say nothing in public while working backdoor channels to quietly sort out the affair and get your Joe back (even in kidnappings this is the standard practice). Why did the US adopt such a public and heavy-handed approach? Conspiracy theorists incline to the belief that the US was petrified at the thought of what Davis might reveal under interrogation, and wanted to have him released immediately. Or, failing that, to at least make him feel that they were fully on his case, thus fortifying his resistance to questioning.
An alternative explanation is that the US thought that Pakistan and its government were so “bought” that an order (Jump!) would be enough to obtain compliance. When this didn’t happen, they got angry (!) and tried to browbeat them into submission. Considering some of the other US foreign policy moves, especially recently, this may not be too far from the truth. Viewed from the pinnacle of Washington, the world often looks very different from how it appears at ground level.
So, how is it all going to end? The Pakistani government may be able to get its foreign ministry to tell the courts that Davis enjoys diplomatic immunity, and should be set free. Whether the courts will accept this is another matter; already the former FM is threatening to appear in court and contradict that. Another possibility is a ‘prisoner exchange’ with Dr Aafiya Siddiqui (jailed by a US court for 86-years, but widely believed in Pakistan to have been railroaded). This may mollify public outrage at Davis’s release. A third possibility is that Davis will go to prison for the murders but, after a suitable interval, will develop a life-threatening ‘malady’ (that seems to afflict sensitive prisoners in Pakistani jails when it becomes inconvenient for the government to hold them) thus leading to his repatriation on ‘humanitarian’ grounds.
As for the long-term fallout from this sorry saga ‒ stay tuned.
Curiouser and curiouser. I feel truly sorry for the innocent victim of the hit and run.
On the one hand you'd think the fellow thought he had a good reason to shoot those guys. But he might have been too hasty in acting.
ISI is not as pure as Caesar's wife, so the fellows shot might have been on the right team, but with the wrong motives.
What's certain, is that it's stirred up a hornets nest and made many things more difficult. But I can't see how the US would want to cause Pakistani instability? If Pakistan was deteriorating, I would hope the nukes would be secured, one way or another. I doubt that the US's primary objective is snatching them right now.
Posted by: jon | 19 February 2011 at 07:05 PM
I don't much feel sorry for the man. His actions, even if found to be warranted, have caused much embarrassment and trouble for the government.
The Pakistanis tend to be conspiracy theorists so I am not surprised they believe the CIA is responsible for the bombings in Pakistan.
Our aid enables corrupt governance in that region, including Afghanistan. If it were up to me, I would divest entirely.
Posted by: Will Reks | 19 February 2011 at 08:20 PM
With a backup team like he had and immediate State Dept and US Response...(Kerry) to establish Diplomatic Immunity/Cover..it is hard to believe Davis is lone wolf
Freelance operative..
everthing indicates a Clastine Operation..Not necessarily CIA tho..sounds to Inexperienced..
Perhaps the secret service team pulled along side and had guns and Motioned him to pull over. and were going to apprehend him..after his suspicious actions..
He could have thought them robbers ..or he didnt want to get caught..
has he seen an attorney..? embassy Staff..? anyone know his condition..? torment..?
its ugly..thats the Spy business..too bad people got killed and its an International incident..
I dont know if the US response was right or not...Col.Lang would know...Its seems we are having many Diplomatic failures and misjudging events and and relations with other cultures and people these days..
I hate seeing people killed for doing thier jobs..plus the civilian..
Its still Messy..
This only continues to weaken our Hand in the region..
Posted by: JimTicehurst | 19 February 2011 at 08:43 PM
General Hamid Gul former paskistani head of the ISI
on the current situation in Pakistan and the middle east:
http://www.kpfa.org/archive/id/67442
Posted by: Augustin L | 19 February 2011 at 09:05 PM
This is a very, very peculiar story: Dr Aafiya Siddiqui. Rashomon, following the articles the story keeps changing.
Posted by: LeaNder | 19 February 2011 at 09:11 PM
The plot thickens, indeed, as this article ponts to several articles linking Davis to drone attacks in Waziristan:
http://news.antiwar.com/2011/02/18/reports-tie-jailed-us-consulate-worker-with-drone-strikes/
The interesting claim is that the drone attacks stopped a couple of days before Davis' arrest, and haven't resumed. Hmmm...
Posted by: Roy G | 19 February 2011 at 09:21 PM
"Incidentally, ever since his arrest drone attacks in the tribal belt have ceased. "
Yes, I remarked on that last Monday.
This seems to be the real issue to me. Why, after several months of regular drone strikes every other day, suddenly stop them for weeks?
It seems like Davis was an important part of the reconnaissance chain that enables the drone strikes.
Posted by: b | 19 February 2011 at 11:29 PM
b,
Which would then from a Pakistani point of view, make him a foreign spy, and a mass murderer (on top of the two apparent intelligence agents he was witnessed killing). Why should they let him go?Because America says so? Because they can say: Screw your sovereignty, hand him over or we cut your aid?
Will that be compelling enough? Without leverage of one way or the other, that pitch will probably be unpersuasive, even more so in a country that is former colony. It also would be highly unpopular in Pakistan. Does the US possess enough leverage to bend Pakistan to their will on this?
Posted by: confusedponderer | 20 February 2011 at 04:47 AM
Davis was/is no 'lone wolf' by any stretch.
Posted by: J | 20 February 2011 at 08:59 AM
J
Just guessing but sounds like a CO going to or coming from a meeting with a source. That would explain the non-embassy car and why the US wants him back so much.
How is life? pl
Posted by: Patrick Lang | 20 February 2011 at 09:17 AM
Colonel,
Davis has enough knowledge to more than cause some very red faces should Davis's knowledge be gained by foreign governments.
I could live in a lean-to and use nature's environment for my toilet paper, but I don't think my wife would do very well in such conditions. She is a bit frazzled still, and will be probably for several months after the rebuilding is completed. I commented to our youngest son over sandwiches at a local diner last evening that I'd be happy as a cat-n-pudding with a Mongolian Ger, but I didn't think his mom would quite understand that one, lol. If it had happened in the middle of the night, don't think we'd be having this conversation unless you visited a spirit medium, lol. Gotta look at the bright side of things, I have my wife and her small pooches, and we have our kids, the rest is window dressing. I look at everything I have is on loan from Heaven anyway, I count my blessings. :), and yes I did smile :). Have a wonderful Sunday.
Posted by: J | 20 February 2011 at 09:46 AM
Brig. Ali
I want to think you very much for updating us on the Davis case -- as troubling as it is -- as well as take the opportunity to give you my thoughts -- as disjointed as they are -- on the magnificent article you sent me on Islam.
You article is magazine length, so I had to spend more time with it than I would with a simple blog post. But, after awhile, the idea that kept coming to my mind when reading your article --specifically its conclusion -- was that your insights reflected “The Sacred Geometry of Islam”.
I use the phrase “The Sacred Geometry of Islam” for a few reasons. First, I have very little to no ability to understand theology -- I am theologically illiterate -- so I often find myself struggling to comprehend the meaning of religious reflections, particularly those, such as yours, that are nuanced in the language of philosophy and science. As I result, I look for metaphors that will help me understand the underlying beauty of a religious work, and sacred architecture has served me well in the past.
While reading your article, time and time again, an image of Old Jerusalem came to my mine. In particular, I recollected a time when I was in Israel on a very beautiful, sunny day and standing at the Mount of Olives, looking across the Kidron valley, and taking in a view of Old Jerusalem. And of course from that vantage point, the Dome of the Rock stands out as no other structure does, with the glittering dome and elegant details. It is simply unmistakable that the Dome of the Rock reflects a sacred kind of architecture.
Your article, it seems to me, does the same.
There is a second reason I want to emphasize the idea of “The Sacred Geometry of Islam”. There is a view that Islamic architecture influenced the design of Gothic Cathedrals, particularly that of Chartres Cathedral in France. Some have pointed out that certain mathematical proportions at Chartres and elsewhere can be traced back only to Islamic architecture. If true, then the conclusion is that Christian knights in Jerusalem during the Latin Kingdom saw the beauty of the Dome of the Rock and took the “sacred” mathematical proportions back to Europe.
I am no historian of the Latin Kingdom and I do not want sugarcoat anything in 2011 because, like you, I know the reality in which we live. But if this idea is true, then it does suggest that the Christian knights had a great deal of respect for the sacred architecture of Islam and, in a fascinating way, the sacred geometry of Islam and that of Christianity, particularly the sacred geometry of Chartres, can contribute to the beauty and building up of each faith.
Your article, is seems to me, does the same.
Third, my thinking, if I may, appears consistent with that of America’s founding fathers. Many of them were Masons and Masons employed the symbols of sacred architecture to find their life's vocation. More than that, Masonic rites, at least as I understand them, have a healthy respect for all Abrahamic faiths. Masonic officers take oaths using the Torah, the Quran, and the Bible (King James version, I assume). So our founding fathers were not in a religious war with Islam. Far from it. They respected Islam and the Quran.
Moreover, our founding fathers specifically rejected the notion of State sponsored religious war. They knew that State sponsored religious war had devastated Europe -- in fact, religious war is what our ancestors wanted to escape -- so the system of republicanism they created was mutually exclusive from the concept of religious war.
Your article, it seems to me, does the same.
And finally, your article -- along with the Davis update- all but establishes beyond a doubt the immense tragedy in which the USG and msm are now a part. Jacobins have exploited the idea of American exceptionalism and now have the US vested in a religious war in which the US supports the goals of of Likud Zionists. In other words, The USG has rejected the aspirations and warnings of Buber’s Zionism which had a sacred beauty of its own until Likud Zionists extinguished Buber’s dream.
And the end point of Likud Zionists and their American supporters is to destroy the Dome of the Rock through violence.
As you article strongly suggests, those in the USG need to be very wary in any attempt to annihilate the sacred geometry of Islam. The more one tries to destroy “the sacred geometry” of any religion, the more one will become soulless. For Americans, this means we will murder, if we have not already, the legacy of our founding fathers, instead of honoring them. By doing so, we place ourselves on the path to destroying ourselves as well as the environment in which we live. By attempting to annihilate sacred geometry, all due to our own volition, we unleash chaos and, undoubtedly, we will experience much needless suffering and pain.
Posted by: Sidney O. Smith III | 20 February 2011 at 10:10 AM
F. B. Ali,
I shall indeed stay tuned, expecting that, eventually, the true story will be told. Interesting are the blatantly ex post facto claim of diplomatic immunity and the president backing that up by calling Davis a diplomat in a news conference.
WPFIII
Posted by: William P. Fitzgerald III | 20 February 2011 at 10:14 AM
"After some initial fumbling, the US embassy declared him a diplomat on staff with diplomatic immunity"
Initial fumbling is putting it mildly - suffice to say the delay was enough for word to spread about what Davies had done, with the inevitable result that the pakistani media jumped on it.
Which either suggests free-lancing or that important people in the US government were kept in the dark regarding the need for Davies to have diplomatic cover.
Posted by: Chris Stiles | 20 February 2011 at 10:52 AM
Agree completely with Colonel Lang. The MO suggests that he was meeting an agent. He was armed because the agent was not fully vetted (and just might have been a plant by ISI), also requiring the backup van. The Embassy/Station wants Davis back because they don't want him to start talking about whatever else they are up to unilaterally.
Posted by: Phil Giraldi | 20 February 2011 at 11:12 AM
b,
Glad to see the Moon of Alabama up again. Used to enjoy visiting it, and look forward to doing it again!
Posted by: FB Ali | 20 February 2011 at 11:41 AM
the true story will be told.
Why am I pessimistic that we will never know "the true story" of either Dr Aafiya Siddiqui or Raymond Davis? Maybe since these are classified matters? Were I am at a loss is what the Pakistani (ISI/Army/administration) could want to keep secret from it's public.
F. B. Ali, do you think it is likely that Aafiya Siddiqui was politicized by the US attack on Afghanistan? Reading the story reminds me of the times I spend in US conspiracy circles, looking closer into similar cases. I didn't like the psychological effects it had on my psyche. I remember her mugshot though.
Posted by: LeaNder | 20 February 2011 at 11:43 AM
There is more to this story than we are being told. That is for sure....
Posted by: Jake | 20 February 2011 at 11:51 AM
LeaNder
I think l'affaire davis is quite simple. Giraldi just described it as have I. pl
Posted by: Patrick Lang | 20 February 2011 at 12:23 PM
I should have also added that Davis DOES NOT have diplomatic immunity in spite of what the US Embassy is saying. To be a diplomat legally speaking you have to be accredited to the foreign ministry of the country and they have to accept your accreditation. You are then entered on the diplomatic list. Most US Embassy employees in most overseas posts do not have diplomatic status and therefore do not have immunity except insofar as the local government might extend some protections to them as a courtesy. There is absolutely no indication that Davis went through the accreditation procedure or anything like that even if he was traveling on a dip passport.
Posted by: Phil Giraldi | 20 February 2011 at 12:33 PM
Brig. Ali, gratitude for
1. your generosity
2. your [elegant] clarity
Posted by: rjj | 20 February 2011 at 12:51 PM
Phil Geraldi
And if he was unilateral he was not declared to ISI. pl
Posted by: Patrick Lang | 20 February 2011 at 12:51 PM
I appreciate the 12pt ariel.
Posted by: van D | 20 February 2011 at 01:10 PM
And if he was unilateral he was not declared to ISI. pl
Is this why US military/defense outsourced the job? Would they have to declare members of the military and the services? Would they need to work with the Pakistan military/services according to international law? Does the outsourcing make any difference as far as legality is concerned?
No doubt, the strategy works. These guys gladly collect data on terrorist attacks in Pakistan:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/
Kill five produce potentially 5.000 new recruits.
Posted by: LeaNder | 20 February 2011 at 01:55 PM
LeaNder
It may not have been "outsourced." Ever heard of "cover?" "Legality?' Don't be childish. pl
Posted by: Patrick Lang | 20 February 2011 at 02:14 PM