Sic Semper Tyrannis

As I thought...

 
I think that what you will see is military rule in the form of a junta overseen by the Supreme Military Council that leads to elections in September.  It will take that long to organize UN oversight, constitutional change, etc.  Whether Omar Suleiman will participate in that transitional arrangement will be revealed soon.

Interestingly, american media once again failed to understand that "the presidency" (Arabic ar-riyasa) did not mean HM himself.  It meant "the presidency."  pl

Mubarak to speak again soon

 
I was surprised by the content of HM's speech last night.  That of OS compounded the ambiguities.  Then, I listened to the Egyptian ambassador to the US try to explain to Wolf Blitzer that what had really been said was that all of HM's real powers had been transferred to OS and that HM would rmain in de jure possession of the office in order to prevent causing a "snap" election in 60 days from the time of his resignation.  That seems plausible to me.  What is being missed by many including a number of Arabs like Hisham Melham is that for the officers of the Egyptian military HM is to them a "father" who must be treated with respect both for that reason and because like most military officers they fear disorder.  Today the Supreme Military Council spoke saying that it "guarantees" free elections in September.  The SMC said that three times.  In Arabic that is significant because when one really means something in a statment the statement is repeated to show seriousness. The SMC also stated that when the crowds go home, the emergency laws will be lifted.

The crowds shold go home to see if this is a serious thing.  They can always come back.  At the same time OS should do something serious to show that he is truly in command and that his intentions are correct.

When Pharoah speaks from beautiful Sharm I will have more to say.  pl

Interview "The Takeaway" 10 February 2011

http://www.thetakeaway.org/2011/feb/10/getting-know-egypts-vice-president-omar-suleiman/

 pl

Interview on "The World" 9 February 2011

http://www.theworld.org/2011/02/09/egypt-omar-suleiman-second-in-command/

Several people have asked me to make a clear statement on the rendition program and the part that Omar Suleimen played in it.  First - this arrangement was made between the US Government and that of Egypt, not between CIA and Omar Suleiman.  Whatever his agency did in accord with the agreement we Americans as a whole should take responsibility for whether we had the opportunity to vote for the program or not. Second - He is and was a public servant, not a "loose cannon" as is implied by many. Third - The present situation in Egypt is so serious and complex that the ability of individuals to contribute to good outcomes should not be decided on the basis of single issues.

My opposition to the use of barbarous (by my definition) methods of warfare is long established.  pl 

Differential Societal Organization: A Response to Carl O

Adam L. Silverman PhD[1]

Carl O asked if an entire society could go insane.  In many ways what he’s asking about and describing is what Sutherland, one of the fathers of modern criminology, described as differential social organization.  For instance, poor neighborhoods are not disorganized or mal-organized, rather they are organized in line with the structural conditions found there: differentially organized.  This then drives the creation of a set of behavioral drivers (values) that are rooted in the social, political, economic, religious, and physical differences in characteristics.  All together they create the conditions for the development of values that are specific to that neighborhood.  Once this occurs the normal process of social learning takes over. 

This is actually a very good question given the events in Egypt and Tunisia, and a number of other places of interest, over the past several weeks.  One of the real questions that Egyptians and Tunisians will face, that the US has faced in Afghanistan and Iraq, and that will be faced in other places, is how does a society, and its component social elements, make the transition from tyranny and despotism to freedom and liberty.  Egyptians, like the presumed denizens of the poor neighborhood I referenced above, have been living in a society that has been socially, politically, economically, religiously, and physically distorted by over forty years of military authoritarianism.  Egyptians are socialized and normalized to this structural and behavioral reality.  And while they certainly have an understanding and appreciation of what freedom and liberty are or could be (depending on their own life experiences of travel, study abroad, ex-patriotism, etc), as Egyptians in Egypt, many, if not most given the youth bulge, have lived only under this set of structural and ideational conditions.  Whatever happens in Egypt over the next several months in terms of who will stay in power or come to power it will be bound within the context of a population that has been treated and ruled despotically and tyrannically.  When they do finally break free and set up new systems and institutions and remake their societies, despotically treated populations often set up new tyrannies or take a long time to exorcise the despotic, tyrannical, and authoritarian impulses from their structures, institutions, norms, and values. 

When we use the term reconstruction, whether in a post Mubarak Egypt, a post US draw down Iraq, or in Afghanistan we have to keep in mind that it is the social and societal reconstruction that is really the hard work.  It is not so much winning the hearts and minds of the local populations, to turn the COIN phrase, but rather to educate, normalize, and tether the societal elements to new and hopefully less despotic structures and understandings of society.  This takes a lot of hard work and a lot of time.  This is NOT about victim blaming, but recognizing that the victims of tyranny and despotism, as well as those who have engaged in it but have to be reconciled to the new state of society, have a lot of hard and difficult work to do.  The success or failure of liberation movements, revolutions, even our 3^rd party population centric COIN efforts is really going to hinge on how serious the social reconciliation efforts are combined with how resilient the tyrannical and despotic structural and ideational vestiges are.

---

[1] Adam L. Silverman is the Culture an Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his alone and do not necessarily represent those of the US Army War College or the US Army.

 

A letter from Yusuf al-Misry

All the friends,

In a conversation with a group of young military officers I came out with strong impressions that the real strong man now is the CJCS Gen Samy Anan. The young officers believe that it is him who has the key to the solution and that he will "do something". Gen Sulliman does not have the same weight in the military like Anan. The young officers hint to the fact that the Air Force is very loyal to Mubarak and that the Presidential guard is hostile to Anan. They also oppose the idea that the next president should be a civilian. One of them said that Anan can end the crisis "in a minute" but did not explain how. All of them agreed that using force by the military is a very remote possibility.

I do not understand why Anan did not make a move yet. He solidly refuses to use force against the demonstrators and seem to be letting events unfold so far as they do not reach a certain tipping point. He refused orders by Mubarak to use force. If he just goes to the TV building and announce the termination of the Mubarak regime he could turn in a minute to a national hero and possibly the next President.Anan sent a text mssg to all cell phones in Egypt that the army will not use force. That was almost 10 days ago. Everybody seem to be talking now about the expected role of the army and Anan refusal to use force and his role in ending the current situation. 

Yusuf al-Misry 

 

 

BBC Interview - 9 February 2011

 
Download BBCinterview090211

 

A caper gone tragically wrong ‒ F B Ali

The spy games continue in “AfPak”, but this one ended in tragedy, and may yet have wider and serious repercussions.

The known facts are that a US national, Raymond Davis, driving a car with non-diplomatic plates in Lahore, while stopped at a red light pulled out a Glock 9mm pistol and, firing through the windshield, shot dead two people nearby on a motor cycle. He radioed the US consulate for back up, stepped out of the car and took pictures of the two dead young men with his camera. The backup van came tearing up the wrong side of the dual carriageway, hit a cyclist, killing him on the spot, turned around and sped away. Davis ran off on foot, mingling among the crowds on a side street, but was chased and captured by two traffic wardens.

The John Bachelor Show

Larry Johnson and I were on the John Bachelor show.

part 1:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EXwNlDTRwo&feature=player_embedded 

part 2:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUriOBQPHcw&feature=player_embedded

 

pl

 

More from Harper's friend, Yusuf al-Misry

"Egypt Today entered a higher level of the unfolding crisis. New segments of the population joined the protests with workers in the Suez Canal, government services and some private industries calling for an open ended strike. At the same time the vice president Gen Omar Sulliman concluded a meeting with editors of newspapers during which he dismissed any idea of the President leaving and of any immediate changes to satisfy the protesters. He refused suspending the emergency laws and promised a gradual move to reform. Mubarak and Sulliman do not understand that while reform indeed needs sometime, time is becoming a rare commodity in the current situation and something should be done to calm down the street. But what?.
The only demand that could have a profound effect on the current dynamics is the departure of the President. Sulliman does not want want to take this step. but there is something else he does not seem to appreciate enough. While the protests expand geographically and socially, the regime does not have any real muscle to force order. Using the armed forces will put in risk the cohesion of this institution. The forces of the ministry of interior have evaporated. That is if using force against such huge masses is of any effect.

And Now for Something Completely Different: No More Narcissism

Adam L. Silverman PhD[1]

To what I imagine will be the great chagrin of many members of the SST community, the NY Times has reported that narcissistic personality disorder (NPD) will not be included in the next update to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (the DSM).  NPD, as well as several other personality disorders, are being dropped and not without some controversy.  Since the discussion of narcissism often comes up in comments, sometimes with very interesting results, I figured I’d pass this little bit of news along.  The change won’t occur until 2013, so we should be good here at SST for a couple of years more.

---

[1] Adam L. Silverman is the Culture an Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his alone and do not necessarily represent those of the US Army War College or the US Army.

 

"Egypt’s Suleiman Gains Clout While Shunning Talk of Presidency" - Bloomberg

"Suleiman, the intelligence chief appointed vice president by Mubarak on Jan. 29, already has begun shaping the next regime during the talks with opposition groups behind the mass demonstrations demanding Mubarak’s immediate ouster.

Last week, Suleiman said that Mubarak’s son, Gamal, won’t run for president. He invited the Muslim Brotherhood into negotiations, the first time a government official has done so since the state banned the group in 1954.

Suleiman’s tightening grip coincides with increased stability in Egypt just days after the country appeared on the brink of anarchy. Banks have opened and the government has completed most of a record treasury bill sale.

Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris on Feb. 5 openly praised the vice president as a “man of honor” who would keep Egypt free of radical Islam."  Bloomberg

-------------------------------------------------

Frank Wisner is an honorable man whose consulting contract with "Patton Boggs" means nothing in terms of "conflict of interest."  Such contracts are completely normal.  What are retired career foreign service offcers to do, live on the dole? You can find people to do that, TV interviews are filled with them these days.  BTW I have declined all requests for TV interviews during this.  Nor have i any contracts like that.

Omar Suleiman.  He helped the US?  What a crime! What a beast!  All you people, please continuee to kneecaping his attempts to bring Egypt throught this crisis. Help the sensationalist media lead cheers for revolution!  We will see if you like the result if you succeed.  BTW, I have participated in the defense of many prisoners at Guantanamo.

The MB might participate in a government?  I thought you liked elections and democracy.

Some radio "jock" said the other night tht I am accustomed to hearing people speak out of both sides of their mouths.  Yes!  I am.  That is business and diplomacy!

Childish nonsense.  pl  

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-07/egypt-s-suleiman-gains-clout-while-shunning-talk-of-presidency.html

The Egyptian Museum - Maureen Lang

My sister has posted a new piece at "The Athenaeum"  pl

'INTELLIGENCE' & INTELLIGENCE - BRENNER

EGYPT – ‘INTELLIGENCE’ FAILURE OR FAILURE OF INTELLIGENCE? 

It is the instinct of rulers to greedily take credit for any success and to shed responsibility for any failure.  Barack Obama has perfected this art form.  His repertoire ranges from the magical transmutation of manifest failure into alchemic ‘success’ to the “I take full responsibility; so now let’s together go forward in bipartisan spirit rather harp on the past” gambit.  The stuttering, contradictory response to the crisis in Egypt has prompted something cruder.  It’s all the fault of the intelligence people who didn’t tell me when, how, by whom and with what consequences this uprising was going to occur. 

Our intelligence agencies, all five of them, do have a far from impressive record.  But this accusation is misdirected. A responsible government would have been acutely aware of the Mubarak regime’s crumbling support and loss of credibility.  It should immediately have recognized in the Tunisian revolution a spark that could ignite the highly combustible conditions in Egypt.  A responsible, competent government would put itself on alert by anticipating an uprising and thinking on a contingent basis as to how it might respond. 

Barack Obama has told people that he in effect is his own National Security Adviser.  This despite his total lack of experience in foreign policy and diplomacy, and a lack of interest in foreign affairs throughout his adult life.  That helps to explain his selection of someone as unqualified as Thomas Donilon to serve in the post.  Donilon spent the last decade as Executive Vice President for Law and Policy at the disgraced Fannie Mae after serving as a corporate lobbyist with O’Melveny & Roberts.   The rest of the Obama team is little better prepared for crises of this delicacy, complexity and profound implications. 

The misjudgments that have prompted our hesitant, ‘stick with the friendly despot we know’ response to the Egyptian convulsion is not due to an alleged 'intelligence' failure .- It is due to a failure in intelligence.  Mr. Obama’s exalted sense of his abilities once again has been exposed as a national liability.  To tell the Egyptian youth who are passionately and bravely reaching for their freedom that “we hear you” while maneuvering behind the scenes to stymie them is no more convincing than telling his dispirited young American ex-devotees that he still is the prophet of “change that you can believe in.”  Some change, some prophet! 

 

 

HARPER: AN ASSESSMENT FROM NEW DELHI

I got this email this morning from a friend who is a senior Indian intelligence officer.  Given historic relations between Egypt and India, going back to the heyday of the Non-Aligned Movement, I thought I'd share this up to the minute assessment from a third party country with great interests in the Middle East.  I am sure this assessment is circulating within the Singh Cabinet in New Delhi today.

President Hosni Mubarak has remained defiant and has refused to quit now. He has told his people that he would quit only in September when his current term ends and a new President would have been elected. He has also totally revamped his National Democratic Party (NDP) executive. Hossam Badrawi, a reformer and top physician, who enjoys the confidence of Mubarak, has been appointed the  head of the policies committee, a post  held by his son Gamal Mubarak till now, and also  the party secretary-general. This revamping is meant to re-assure the protesters that people associated with the hated policies of his Government and accused of corruption would not stay in office in the run-up to the elections.

Muslim Brotherhood 'to join talks' - BBC

 

"the talks would begin on Sunday and would assess how far the government was "ready to accept the demands of the people".

The negotiations would be the first ever to be held between the government and the officially banned Brotherhood."  BBC

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(irony alert- irony is like sarcasm or snark - but funner)  So now we have the Ikhwan going into discussions with Omar Suleiman the "designee" in the minds of the left as the man who will continue US and Israeli domination of Egypt through capitalist exploitation and imperialist treaty.

Explain to me how that works.  Explain to us all.  pl 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12375426

 

Harper Joins as Guest Author

Harper has made many prior contributions.  pl

HARPER: FAST-MOVING DEVELOPMENTS IN EGYPT AND WASHINGTON

 
I received the following message this morning from a close friend in Egypt, who is very much engaged in the events now consuming the country. Since I received this note, some new dramatic events have transpired. President Obama's special Egypt envoy, Frank Wisner, a former U.S. Ambassador there and a close friend of President Mubarak, spoke at the Wehrkunde conference in Munich, and announced that Mubarak had to remain in office to steer the transition to a new government, etc. This is a 180 degree turn, after Obama's own "out now" demands, that were very impolitic, unless they had been already pre-negotiated. As a precondition for Mubarak staying on, his son Gamal, and the head of the ruling party, Sharif, were both forced to resign, which they did this afternoon. A reform-minded figure has been named as the replacement for both men, a good sign. In the Tahrir Square, there are growing indications that the Army may attempt to clear out the demonstrators, which could rile things up as bad as the Wednesday-Thursday hooligan attacks, organized by the Interior Ministry and the "oligarchs" behind the looting of the country under the radical privativation of post-1996. So things are in flux, and the U.S. Administration's involvement now seems to be in the hands of some people who know the Egyptian situation alot better than the White House circles around the President. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden are handling the contact with Omar Suleiman, the VP; and Gates and Mullen are dealing continuously with their counterpart. Here is my friend's status report:

ISLAM & DEMOCRACY

DEMOCRACY PROMOTION & ISLAM

 Copyright  December 2008 

TO BEND THE WILLOW BRANCH, ONE MUST KNOW THE ROOTS

 Michael Brenner is Professor of international affairs at the University of Pittsburgh and a Fellow of the Center on Transatlantic Relations at SAIS in Washington. He has published widely on American foreign policy, European politics and the Middle East.  His recently has published a monograph, Fear & Dread In The Middle East, with the DUASA Institute.   In addition to a number of books, Prof Brenner’s articles have appeared in journals on both sides of the Atlantic, including: Internationale Politik, International Affairs, Relations Internationale, Survival, Europe’s World,  European Affairs, Foreign Policy, World Politics and Comparative Politics.  He has held previous teaching and research appointments at Harvard, MIT, Cornell, Stanford, the University of Texas at Austin, and the Brookings Institution.  His website address is www.pitt.edu\~mbren.  Professor Brenner can be contacted at [email protected]

The Khedive Ismail

I love this guy. He is my favorite person in Egyptian history.  I wish I could have been there when the Blue/Gray American officers were there in the 1870s, the Empress Eugenie came for the opening of the Suez Canal and the debut of Aida. Ismail built a palace for her on the Gezira.  Her bedroom is now the main bar at the Mariott.

Stone Pasha was the Army chief of staff.  Every Christmas there would be a big party at his house complete with a huge tree brought from the Lebanon, singing, punch, presents, the works.  Ismail Pasha always came to the party.

US Grant came on a visit after he left the white House.  The Americans held a banquet in his honor at Shepherd's Hotel.  Ismail came to that as well.  Grant cried at the toasts and told them all how happy he was to see his Old Army friends especially the confederates, many of whom he had not seen since before the WBS. 

I wrote this for the ahistorical politcal science louts (not you Adam) who think that Egyptbetween the Paroahs ans Nasser is tabula rasa.

What a fine collection of Orders!  This will give you all something to talk about.  OK.  Maybe not.   

 

Ah! Who is this, an agent of Sherman and Grant the arch-imperialists!  But we already knew that did we not, Sidney?  pl

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isma'il_Pasha

Israel, Mubarak and the Ikhwan Muslimeen (MB)

Israael wants Mubarak to remain in power in Egypt.  Israel fears Islamic political movements and states that have Muslim practise as their basis.  Israeli political warfare entities believe that Muslims must be protrayed as goblins in the night in order to mobilize world opinion against them so as to render them harmless.  The same entities believe that world opinion is simple minded and that the Islamic "enemy" must be simplified so as to make it comprehensible for the goyim.

To that end, all possible manifestations of Islamist political activity are now being described grossly as being the work of the Society of the Muslim Brotherhood (the MB in the shorthand of the day).  This is terribly cynical and condescending, but one should not be surprised.

In fact, the MB (as I have said before) is one of many Islamic groups. Some are political and some are not.  The MB is specifically and altogether a Sunni organization.  Its devotion to Qur'an and Sunnah mark it irrevocably as such.  The Shia Islamic Republic of Iran has nothing to do with the MB and  NEVER WILL.  Al-Qa'ida despises the MB for its willingness to participate in  democratic politics in Eqypt or anywhere else.  Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden's Egyptian deputy left the MB decades ago over the same issue.  

Nevertheless, we now have the 'tools" of Israeli political warfare in the US MSM seeking to "draw the devil on the wall" as being an easily described "bogey man." Simple minded domestic "anchors" snarl at expert "guests" who deny the inevitable diabolism of the MB.  The egregious Christopher Matthews snarled tonight at Peter Bergen and the Washington bureau chief of al-Jazeera when they would not join him in beating the drum for a pogrom against the MB.   "Did they not kill Sadat?" he roared, glowering the while.   The answer given by these two men was the truth. Anwar Sadat  was killed by a group called "Takfir wa Higra" who had split from the MB over the same issues invloving MB's abandonment of violence.  Having read the interrogation reports of the captured assasins, I can say that it was very clear that they were not members of the MB.  "But they were happy with the murder!" Matthews insisted meaning the MB.   MSNBC - yet another hasbara outlet.

The MB are Mubarak's political rivals in Egypt.  He hates them for that.  That is understandable.  What has that to do with us?

Let us not let the Zionists make fools of us in their pursuit of absolute security.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_Brotherhood

Dr. Brenner

I forgot to mention that Dr, Michael Brenner will be joining us as a guest author.  pl

Is there a person in your life who always has a hug and makes you feel better when they're around? Who is it – and what do you love about them?

 
ESCAPING ALLADIN’S CAVE  by  Dr. Michael Brenner

Washington is suffering severe heartburn over events in the Arab world. The anguished hand-wringing is almost palpable. Understandably so. For the series of setbacks that the Obama administration has experienced these past few weeks, and the dread of worse to come – especially in Egypt, makes the future look dire for the United States - IF we accept the existing premises as to American interests in the greater Middle East. There is quite another perspective available from which current developments look far less menacing.

Fear of the Muslim Brotherhood May Be Greatly Exaggerated

Adam L. Silverman PhD[1]

With all the unrest and now violence in Egypt a lot of ink, a lot of radio and television airtime, and a lot of internet digits have been used discussing whether the events in Egypt will bring the Muslim Brotherhood into power there and what it means for Egypt, Israel, the region, and the US.  While all this has been going on, in fact before the events in Egypt even started, the fear of the Muslim Brotherhood has been a big concern for some[2].  Especially those that are convinced that the Muslim Brothers are taking over the American government, subverting the intelligence community (h/t to Digby), through such individuals as Homeland Security Advisor Brennan and DNI Clapper, and infiltrating the Conservative Movement.  Since the events in Egypt have occurred there have been further extreme, conspiratorial assertions that the Muslim Brotherhood are now partnering with the socialist left in the US (based on the context of the posting, this seems to mean liberals and/or Democrats and notice the gratuitous conflation of Islam and Nazism…) and that a Muslim Caliphate that engulfs the Middle East, parts of Central and SE Asia, and parts of Europe will soon be reestablished (as well as a Chinese dominated sphere in Asia, Africa, and the Antipodes and a Russian one in Europe and parts of Asia).  All of this comes within several month of Oklahoma outlawing Sharia in the November 2010 elections even though there are only 15,000 Muslims in Oklahoma out of a population of 3.7 million and no evidence that anyone was trying to establish it or use it as a basis for jurisprudence in Oklahoma or anywhere else in the US.[3]  And I don’t think I need to reprise the hysteria of last Summer and Fall about the Park 51 Islamic Center that was, at the time, the most recent example of responses to Islam and Muslims out of all proportion to the actual terrorist threat from violent, reactionary extremists.

Popular Media

I have been advised to link SST to several social media outlets.  Is that a good idea? pl 

Israel, Mubarak, AIPAC and Obama

"Israel can be a spoiled brat. Constantly craving attention and assurances of undying friendship and commitment, self-centered and blind to the needs of others. Israel, unlike America, isn't a superpower. It isn't an empire. It doesn't have much of a role in world affairs other than taking care of its own little self. So, when Israel looks at the revolutionary forces in Egypt, it doesn't see "change," or "hope," or "democracy," or the "end of oppression." It doesn't see Egyptians rejoicing in anticipation of their new beginning. All Israel sees is trouble."  Shmuel Rozner in "Slate"

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The great irony here (yes that is like sarcasm) is the conflict between Israeli 19th Century style nationailst realpolitik and  the salvationist romantic revolutionary zeal of Israel's faithful but wilful AIPAC "children."  Oh, yes, I would include the whole neocon/WINEP/BENS/JINSA crowd in that noble assemblage.  Today, I watched 24/7 cable news anchors begin to distance themselves rhetorically from the anti-mubarak mobs.  "Whoa, I heard one say, shouldn't we be more worried about what will come IF HE LEAVES?"  It seems Mubarak has found the key to eternal life and black haired vigor. Are we supposed to think that this network attitude is unconnected from offical Israel iattutudes?

Another great irony is the pathetic belief held dear for so long by the left and the surviving elements of the anti-colonial antiquary groups that Husni Mubarak was and is a "puppet' of the United States.  Some puppet!

Tomorrow will be the decisive day for this rebellion.  The United States has cast its lot now with the people in Tahrir Square.  "Now are the times that try men's souls." Will we prove ourselves faithless yet again?  I still hope for a managed transition, but the prospects for other than a day of blood tomorrow, a "red day" are dim.  pl 

http://www.slate.com/id/2283737/

How About a Clean Break – with Israel? - Giraldi

 
"...the relationship with Tel Aviv has an impact far beyond Israel’s size and importance it should, ironically, be the first element in the foreign policy disaster that is examined."  Giraldi

-------------------------------------

Oh, BTW, Senator Gillebrand?  My lord, what's with this woman?  pl

http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2011/02/02/how-about-a-clean-break-with-israel/

 

Friday is likely to be the day...

There are very strong rumors coming out of sources close to the Saudi government suggesting that King Abd'allah, who is now in Morocco, has convinced President Mubarak to step down to avoid a possible bloodbath during anticipated massive demonstrations on Friday.  Abd'allah has also reportedly offered Mubarak asylum in Saudi Arabia, but Mubarak has not yet accepted the offer.  pl

Time to choose for the Egyptian Army - Patrick Lang

Husni Mubarak has decidedto defy Barack Obama and to rally available police and population control forces against the mobs of revolutionaries.  Rocks, bricks and mounted  agents of the government are attacking the crowds.  In his televised announcment of his own withdrawal from public life Mubarak accused the demonstrators of "abuse of freedom of speech," "lawlessness," criminalty" etc. and said that these "criminal elements" must be "punished" before elections can be held.

President Obama has engaged the policy and prestige of the United States on the side of the revolutionaries when he said "now."  Such commitment should not be withdrawn else the world will rightly conclude that the bravery and dedication of American troops as demonstrated in Iraq and Afghanistan is once again sadly matched by the fecklessness of American government.  

This poses a major dilemma for the Obama Administration because the Zionist friends of the president (both American and Israeli) are giving them internally conflicting guidance.  The neocon Zionists simultaneously want to see their Jacobin dream of revolution come to fruition across the region and also to see the continuation of the "cold peace" between Israel and Egypt. The Israelis seem to have a clearler vision.  They want their semi-allies in Egypt kept in power.

Having gone this far, the US has little choice but to seek to remember its own revolutionary tradition, to stand by the men and women in the streets and to tell the Egyptian Army that the time has come to choose its own future and that of Egypt.  If the generals; Omar Suleiman, Tantawi and Shafik wish to stand by Mubarak, they will have made a fateful error.  pl 

Crisis and Death ( Hariri Part 3.) Richard Sale

By Richard Sale, author of Clinton’s Secret Wars 

The crisis between the U.S. intelligence services and Hariri began with the 9/11 attacks.  As one serving U.S. analysts said at the time, with the discovery of the hijackers’ Saudi identity, The Kingdom ordered Hariri and the rest of their agents into a “protective stance” in an effort to repair “Its shattered image” in Washington. The agency was shocked to find that their key asset was no longer talking to his American controllers and even when he did, he never gave anything of value regarding secret Arab conversations, sources said. The case was made worse when the agency thought of the huge monies they had spent on furthering their man’s political career in Lebanon.  Former CIA official Larry Johnson said at the time, ‘”It’s another example of the incompetence of the agency in managing a source.” (Johnson, a good friend, was not a source for this piece by the way.) 

A former senior U.S. intelligence official agreed with Johnson: “It doesn’t take much to fool the CIA if you are averse to risk and you give your superiors the idea that you have this great source who makes you look good in your fitness reports.”