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28 February 2011

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bt

We really don't have a very good template on how to 'ACT' in these situations. Once the Uncle Sam boogie man shows up, we'll become the big story and taint the whole affair.

Can I assume that our shadow armies and spies (and other country's) are active in Libya, doing what they tend do in these situations?

And don't these situations turn on the point in time if/when the Military turns on the old leaders?

William R. Cumming

Agree and see MQ if he goes down will go down swinging at whomever he can destroy!
We (US) are NAIFS!

James McKenzie-Smith

Dear Sir,

I was of the non-intervantion crew, until I remembered that little word "Jedburgh"...

Best regards,

James McKenzie-Smith

Patrick Lang

bt

You may not. I can't run a hundred yards anymore or I would be eager. Ah, "to ride in triumph through Persepolis." (Tripoli) pl

Mike C

Col. Lang,

My gut sense is we could do the same sort of operation that we used to chase away the Taliban, and we're less likely see any "Qathaafi-ists" running an insurgency afterword. I have two main concerns: Have we got enough gas in the tank, and would our leadership be smart enough to know when it was time to exit?

Gerard

Col, wouldn't there be a danger in setting up expectations of similar help in other countries? Help that might not come. I don't think we want a repeat of what happened to the Iraqi rebellion after Gulf War 1.

psc

Organizing the potential forces of freedom is noble but it will surely turn into building roads, schools, and a womens rights movement for the people of Libya. All paid for by us.

Firehouses are being shut down in Philadelphia and Camden, NJ. There is talk of combining the two forces because of a lack of funds.

If our local governments can't afford to put out fires in the Cradle of Liberty, why would our federal government attempt to quench fires thousands of miles away?

Fred

Col,

I'm not much in the running department and it may cost me a career but if you need a driver I'll join you.

Will Reks

I've been talking to an Iraqi-American friend about this issue. He's of the opinion that we should let the Arabs handle their own business and thinks our involvement in their affairs has generally been to their detriment.

I empathize with the courage and determination of the rebels to cast Qadhafi aside. DOL is a great ethos, however, our experience in Iraq has left me very reluctant to support such endeavors.

We should engage when our assistance is requested, necessary, and with broad agreement. I always feel like something is wrong when the neoconservatives and the neoliberals are pushing for something.

The Twisted Genius

PL,

"Someone must help organize the potential forces of freedom."

I'm guessing you want the SF teams in there now. Given the call(s) from the free Libyans for outsiders to stay out, the first order of business for those teams is to convince the "Libyan G's" to first tolerate our presence and then accept our assistance. Unless that happens, I don't see us riding in triumph through Persepolis.

Accomplishing that task took two days for my team during ROBIN SAGE. I don't think we were that incompetent. The JFKSWC cadre just wanted to impress on us what a difficult and humbling experience it could be.

Clifford Kiracofe

JMS,

Also Baker Street, F Section.


American SST readers,

lest we forget our fallen who liberated North Africa. http://www.abmc.gov/cemeteries/cemeteries/na.php

Green Zone Cafe

BBC said US was repositioning naval and air forces for possible contingencies.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12603320

I'm sure 5th Group would love to do another unconventional warfare mission.

bth

One might envision a scenario whereby his frozen billions become a negotiating point.

His mercenaries like to get paid or might go to the highest bidder.

For that matter same could be said for his remaining military commanders.

I'm not saying this might not come down to a well place rifle shot, but with all those billions floating around, one could see opportunity in this chaos.

If his sons had a chance to retire early with some unfrozen billions or fight in the streets for dear old cross dressing daddy. It might not be such a hard choice after all.

walrus

Col. Lang,

Can we interest the usual suspects in joining a recreated International Brigade? That would be entertaining.

Carthago delenda est!

Cal

I agree.
Should have happened last week.

Patrick Lang

TTG

Yes. First you sell yourself and then you are all sold. pl

William R. Cumming

TTG and others! Have you checked out the size of Libya and its over 100 Tribes?

It is a huge nation-state with lots of room!

jonst

To the limited extent I can figure out what is going in Libya, it looks to me like the nation (if nation it be)is going to be split in two. One group in the 'East', and MQ's (perhaps without the madman himself)group in Greater Tripoli. From there, we might see a Lebanese style drama with both sides (all sides?) looking for 'sponsors'. Col, is the oil predominantly in the East?

Anyway....that is my guess. As to the 'drama' being conjured up in America by the media and our leaders? I expected no less. It is all movies now.

Clifford Kiracofe

"BENGHAZI, Libya — They have little ammunition, their equipment is old and outdated and their fighters are poorly trained. Even though they boast of tanks, army bases and airports in eastern Libya, rebels still face many challenges before they can make any real move on Moammar's Gadhafi's stronghold in Tripoli hundreds of miles to the west...
""We have orders to move these tanks to other bases," said Sgt. Maj. Salah Adam, who wore mismatched khakis as he gestured at the small, Russian-made tanks dating from the 1980s. He said the base has 36 tanks, of which 12 will be deployed around Bayda...

"Military analysts said, however, that the fight for Tripoli or any other city still under Gadhafi's sway will be more of an urban battle than a conventional one, with light arms, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars far more effective than tanks, field artillery or warplanes.

"But putting together a fighting force to take on Gadhafi loyalists would involve a great deal of logistical know-how, from arranging fuel trucks, food supplies, ammunition and establishing a workable chain of command, said Jane's Felstead.

Glimpses of the rebel Libyan army in the cities of Tobruk, Bayda and Benghazi, however, reveal an undisciplined group wearing only bits of uniforms with a tendency to ride around in pickup trucks and fire their weapons in the air..."

"Food, medicine, weapons — anything would help," he said of possible Western aid. The unshaven officer was dressed in a blue jumpsuit and parka and didn't carry any obvious marks of rank."
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article
/ALeqM5gMjG_ZX8rl9a7qNtXdBn01M4d7uA?docId=6098528


Clifford Kiracofe

"STOCKHOLM – An arms trade watchdog says it suspects Libya received a shipment of military equipment from Belarus as Moammar Gadhafi's regime started a bloody crackdown on anti-government protesters.

"The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, said Monday that an Ilyushin 76 aircraft left a military base near the Belarusian city of Baranovichi and landed at the Libyan airport of Sebha in mid-February.

"That was before the U.N. Security Council adopted a weapons embargo on Libya.

"The aircraft came from a dedicated military base that only handles stockpiled weaponry and military equipment," SIPRI arms trafficking expert Hugh Griffiths said.

The Sebha airport where the plane landed is Gadhafi's "key military logistics space in southern Libya," Griffiths said, adding the area is controlled by a tribe loyal to the Libyan leader.

"He also said a Libyan government plane has made two flights to Belarus in the past week, though it was unclear who was on board or what cargo it was carrying."
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/28/arms-watchdog-suspects-belarus-libya-transports/#

The Twisted Genius

William R. Cumming,

"TTG and others! Have you checked out the size of Libya and its over 100 Tribes?

It is a huge nation-state with lots of room!"

It is even bigger when you leave the map and stand on the ground. For practical reasons, I suspect our contact would be limited to a few major areas of frontline" resistance. Dividing the whole of Libya into UWOAs would be overly ambitious, unnecessary and futile.

Charles I

Food, medicine, weapons.

This is what I've seen asked for over and over on the news. Air drops and no boots on the ground.

By weapons, they do mean to include airstrikes.

We have abused the Arab states so much they are not presently configured to do the work, or it would have been done. Same in Africa.

Turkey, a Nato member, is thereby somewhat constrained from unilateral action, tho I haven't a clue of their political attitude here.

Ok to blast the shit out of Panama when your erstwhile agent sours, or run a huge CIA basically illegal cold blooded murder program in Pakistan from the air,but no one can decide to do this from the air?

Hey, you muckety mucks in Washington who read SST. Get off your asses. Watch the news, see what's asked for, and no boots. World opinion is with you. A short sharp attack from the air, get on with it.

Destroy all his tanks vehicles, aircraft, and attack his compounds. Blow a few walls down make it easier to attack, harder to defend, how complicated can it be to do a bit to reduce his firepower?

Asked the bleeding heart civvy wouldn't run a hundred yards unless you were shooting at me.

Charles I

ps, ignorance alert/hippocampus failure, what is DOL, please?

Joseph Moroco

Mike C

"would our leadership be smart enough to know when it was time to exit?"

The only successful exit strategy we have executed was Viet Nam.

walrus

WRC:

"TTG and others! Have you checked out the size of Libya and its over 100 Tribes?

It is a huge nation-state with lots of room!"

That then, is an open invitation to Special Forces to operate in the bare bits and suborn as many of the tribes as possible with the initial objective of interdicting ground routes supplying anything to Ghaddafi from Southern Africa.

What is also required is the destruction/defection/neutralisation of the Libyan Air Force, the prevention of resupply or escape by air and perhaps interdiction operations in support of the Provisional Libyan Government in Benghazi. No troops on the ground would be required, I think.

Libya apparently has a relatively formidable air defence network that will also have to be neutralised.

Details of it here.

http://geimint.blogspot.com/2010/05/libyan-sam-network.html


It may be possible to blame Obamas dilatoriness for concerns about hostage taking and a tacit agreement about repatriation of foreign nationals, but no more.

A British operation extracted some hundreds of their nationals by Hercules by night from a disused mining camp strip deep in the desert.

You can see it on Google Earth by searching using search term "OXY A103". Note the big white cross indicating "unusable".

There are some unfortunate images on the web from aircraft spotters in Malta showing load out of Hercs and Chinooks, with trucks and ammunition.

We may be seeing the recreation of Popskis Private Army or the LRDG.

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