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20 February 2011

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jon

Word seems to be that Kadafy has clamped down hard on the demonstrators and the death toll is now in the hundreds.

I, too, was amused by Libya's coming clean with their WMDs, especially the nuclear equipment. It seems Kadafy was looking for prestige, but no one knew what to do with the supplies.

I'm sure he was well compensated for his forthrightness. This even also allowed Libya to wrap up the Lockerbie loose ends - including the terminally ill bomber, now repatriated and in far better health.

Walrus

Hubris, meet Nemesis.


"The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." ... "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality-based_community

Walrus

From Twitter:

MarcoMago RT @EimanAbdel: Head of zawi tribe in #Libya, largest there on AJA: if attacks on people don't stop we will attack the oil pipelines tomorrow @zerohedge

walrus

Shoruk_K RT @OmarAlmu5tar: Via Family: Youth in #Benghazi are heavily arming themselves with weapons from the military camp in AlBerka #Libya #feb17

walrus

ChangeInLibya RT @iyad_elbaghdadi: Aljazeera confirms #Libya Interior Minster Abdulfattah Yunus joins protesters; abandons #Gaddafi regime #Feb17

Clifford Kiracofe

Opposition appears to have some momentum as the protests are spreading throughout the country.

In the south, Tuareg are reported to have joined Warfala in supporting the rising.

Sketchy reports seem to indicate that the violence against the opposition is conducted by special security services and not by the regular army.

Additionally, reports of "African" mercenaries slaughtering opposition. I take this to mean Chadian mercs. The protesters will be able to hunt them down, identify them and liquidate them as circumstances permit, it would seem.

Saw video of several dead all with head shots. Appears, as reported by some, that snipers deployed against opposition protesters in streets. I think this was Benghazi.

Protests now moving to Tripoli which is significant. It would appear that opposition protest activity now to west of Tripoli, to east Benghazi (traditionally the "Leader"), and to south.

Libyan ambassador to China and to Arab League have reportedly resigned and joined opposition.

Yes, Bush and the Neocons. I recall speaking with some well informed businessmen in Tunisia several years ago who were amused by the Bush White House claims of taming the "Leader". They indicated the Leader's sons had put pressure on him to moderate as one wanted to be the next Leader.

blowback

Apparently the Americans handed over some of the Libyan centrifuges to URENCO at Capenhurst (UK enrichment site) to see if they could get them to work as they were developed by A Q Khan from a URENCO design but they could not! Further convinces me that Blair who did most of the negotiating was an idiot!

J

Anybody know anything about the gunfight breaking out between his two sons, and that Saif al-Islam Qaddafi was shot in gun fight?

Peter Principle

No doubt Elliot Abrams will be out any day now with another op-ed piece arguing that the revolt in Libya proves Shrub was right all along.

The old Soviet Pravda had nothing on these guys.

William R. Cumming

Well Libya is an oil exporter so expect that uncertainty to cause US and other international oil companies including NOCs {National Oil Companies] to exploit the situation. The final blow of high oil prices to the USA economy? And of course few domestic USA banks have come anywhere close to marking to market on their books real estate both residential and commercial and other problems. So with $12 Trillion invested through the back door by the FED and it still printing money and the government headed to a shut down on March 5th it will be sending loud and clear the message to the rest of the world that its last "superpower" is almost totally incompetent to handle its own affairs while continuing to tell other nation-states how to handle their affairs, internal and external. Hoping they are working on an anti-hubris vaccine hard at CDC for domestic consumption. Or that's right CDC will also be shut down.

Clifford Kiracofe

Malta will now get some attention.

Medicine Man

Hubris is its own banana peel. I'm sure Elliot Abrams will be brilliant but my favorite justification for Bush's foreign policies came from Christopher Hitchens, who casually claimed that recent events in Egypt vindicated his decisions in Iraq.

walrus

Twitter reports suggest Two Libyan military aircraft landed in Malta, their pilots defecting after being ordered to strafe demonstrators in Benghazi. Their colleagues apparently strafed a crowd in Tripoli killing 250.

Apparently the army is enforcing a curfew by the shoot to kill method. Names of wounded protesters have been taken in Hospitals and others have been executed on the spot.

walrus

I'm afraid that Libya is turning into an object lesson for old hippies and those young, way cool, connected, techno savvy, educated, young folks.

If Ghaddafi prevails, is Europe still going to purchase Libyan oil???

Fnord

Maybe im hopelessly naive, but when we have Libyan marine vessels and fighters strafing civilians, isnt it possible to do something fast and decisive in return from the west? I hardly think the Libyan people will mind... (reading the news as they come. What do we know of the ethnic compositions within the Libyan army/AF/navy?)

Looks like it will be Rumania x2 as a best case scenario.

Charles I

Malta seems to have gotten acouple of defecting jets acording to Al Jezeera, but here's a mostly unrleated Irony alert.

http://english.themarker.com/cabinet-okays-freeze-on-income-tax-cuts-1.344710

mac

Colonel,

I am amazed at what is happening....a mix of anxiety and thrill....

smoke

Events in Libya sound horrifying. Can't this murderous rage of the rejected leader-in-hiding be halted? BBC uses the term "scorched earth".

How are mercenaries being paid? Who is flying planes that reportedly massacre Libyans on ground?
BBC reports oil companies withdrawing personnel.

different clue

I was listening to BBC last night and one of the things they broadcast was an interview from Ankara with a highly respected religions leader-scholar who was also semi-high up in the traditional leadership hierarchy of one of Libya's large tribal confederations. He stated that the religious thinker-scholars of Libya had stated several days ago that
the Lybian authorities should not shoot protesters.
And after the Lybian authorities shot protesters anyway, the religious thinker-scholars have all said that rebellion against the Lybian authorities is now an Islamic duty. Several of the big tribal confederations have also now said that rebellion is a tribal duty.

It looks to me that the Quadaffists have decided to push the Lybians into a corner which the Lybians can either all die in or fight their way out of. Quadiffi junior's speech was interpreted as a threat to "kill you all" if the Lybians keep fighting. So if they interpret it that way, they will decide that preventing their own mass extinction will require them to hunt down and kill every last Quadaffist in detail. If they win without the Western sympathy and support they feel they deserve, they may try to shrink or abolish the oil contracts with Western companies whose countries rehabilitated Quadaffi in return for oil field access. All that access may well be re-assigned to Chinese, Brazilian, and Indian oil companies. We will be reduced to "beggars-can't-be-choosers" end-user customers for the oil.

I used to think the tonton macoutes of Haiti were truly unique. But it looks like the tonton macoutes were taken as a template for regime-loyal security forces in many countries. Tonton macoutes everywhere. Tonton macoutes all over the world.

William R. Cumming

What is the capability of the Libyan Air Force?

different clue

Walrus,

I saw your question upthread . . . " If Quaddafi prevails, is Europe
still going to purchase Libyan oil???"

My feeling is that, first of all, we don't know if Quaddafi is going to prevail. So my amateur layman's answer can only be totally conditional upon Quaddafi's prevailing. Given that, my conditional answer is that ... yes, of course , and absolutely. IF
Quaddafi prevails, Europe will absolutely buy all the Libyan oil it can. If Europe shows any hesitation whatever about buying Libyan oil, Quaddafi will simply threaten to pledge all of Libya's oil in multi-decade contracts to China. Once that oil gets pledged to China, Europe will never get a chance to buy any of it ever again. So of course
Europe will continue buying
Libyan oil if Quaddafi prevails. In my purely amateur opinion.

William R. Cumming

By the way the Libyan oil fields and transport system are extremely vulnerable to being disrupted. I would not count on Libyan production reaching its normal customers if not already in transit outside Libya.

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