The Qaddhafi regime (we used to call it the Government of Libya) and several other Middle Eastern and North African states are in big trouble. Revolutionary hysteria is once again developing in the 24/7 cable news media. Dylan Ratigan clearly sees himself as either Tom Paine or Robespierre depending on the hour. A "guest" on his show just said that Mubarak, like the Qaddhafi regime, ordered Egyptian Air Force aircraft to fire on the Cairo crowds. I do not know that this is true, but, clearly for the jacobins, truth means nothing.
No one should be sorry to see Qaddhafi go. His sons will not go quietly and the likelihood of large scale bloodshed is pronounced. the country is a collage of variegated tribes, sects, military factions, etc. As the benighted Saif-al-Islam Qaddhafi said yesterday, anything can happen now. A "spike" in prices on the spot oil market is inevitable and it may go very high if the flow from Libyan oil ports is interrupted for long.
In the Gulf, I do not think that regime change in Bahrein or Kuwait is likely in spite of the designation of these governments by the media as "regimes." Saudi Arabia will intevene, if necessary, militarily to prevent that. The precedent for the Shia population of the Eastern Province would be much too beguiling for the Saudi "regime" to allow regime change to occur. In the event of such intervention the police troops of the Ministry of Interior (Prince Naif), and the Saudi National Guard (SANG-an all Sunni tribal beduin) force would be the instruments of choice. If that happens expect to see a lot of blood. Those beduins do not like Shia in the best of times.
Yemen. Salih will manage this to a successful conclusion.
The jacobin neocons are crowing in delight at the prospect of revolution. We will see how long that lasts. pl
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110221/ap_on_re_af/af_libya_protests