Sic Semper Tyrannis

#Libya: The Two Narratives

 
Once again (as in so many countries), the US narrative of events in Libya differs profoundly from my limited understanding of the situation and perhaps from the understanding of Libyans whose fate is hanging in the balance. 

We seem to be constructing an image of a situation in which a glorious revolutionary army of citizens and defected soldiers are marching on the capital as the tyrant's support crumbles steadily.  The strains of "La Marseillaise" can be heard in the background.  "Aux armes, citoyens, formez vos battaillons!" 

Nonsense.  I see no battalions of citizens.  I see no advance on Tripoli.  I see a potential for those battalions, but the clock is running, running.  Given enough time the tyrant will regain his position.

Clinton, Susan Rice and the CFR wonkies can babble all they want. That will not bring down this tyrant.  Qathafi is not Mubarak.  We must act, now!  Someone must help organize the potential forces of freedom.  DOL  pl

 

 

#John Batchelor Show - 27 February 2011

 
Our part of this starts at 18:00 minutes into the segment.  pl

http://wabcradio.com/FlashPlayer/default.asp?SPID=33447&ID=2121142

#MENA Fearless Forecast - 27 Feb 2011

 
At this point IMO the optimism about the imminent departure of MQ and his friends is premature.  According to the news 20 rebels headed for Tripoli were halted at Sirte yesterday, lined up beside the road and shot.  West of Tripoli at Al Zawiya reporting in real time today indicated that the defenders are preparing for ANOTHER counter-attack by Qathafi forces trying to re-take the town.  Libyan air force pilots in Benghazi indicated today that while they would help defend the east, they would not participate in offensive operations in Tripolitania. 

Qathafi has a lot of money.  His southern flank is a very big desert across which more mercenary fighters can be imported from the desert peoples of Algeria, Chad and Niger.

If he does not experience a sudden failure of nerve in the next couple of days, this situation could easily "stabilize" into a long term civil war with Qathafi controlling Tripoli (2 million people) and the rebels a lot of the rest of the country

Sanctions won't bring him down.  He doesn't care about sanctions.  Speeches at the UN won't bring him down.  A no-fly zone won't bring him down.

Could Tripoli be fed under sanctions?  Will the UN enforce sanctions that starve the inhabitants?

This may go on for quite a while.  pl

#John Batchelor Show on Sunday

2130 w/ Larry Johnson  pl

#Israel as NATO Member? - Clifford Kiracofe

  
       Cosmetics heir Ronald Lauder, Reagan’s ambassador to Austria who heads the World Jewish Congress, recently demanded that Israel be admitted to membership in NATO.  

        This proposal has been raised over the past decade in academic and in political circles but the rapidly changing situation in the Arab world, and in the Middle East, gives it a sense of urgency for Zionists around the world seeking protection for the “Jewish State”.

 

#Gates' Recent Speech at West Point

This was a remarkably far sighted speech by Gates.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/25/AR2011022504180.html?hpid=moreheadlines

#Libya - "Now's the time and now's the hour."

 
As a "card carrying" non-interventionist (isolationist maybe?), I think that I have the "street cred" to call for intervention in Libya.

American inaction helped create this monster still lurking in the outskirts of Tripoli.  Our credulity and political opportunism helped maintain him in power when Bush 43 accepted his nonsense and let him back in out of the cold.

Now, brave men and women have risen up against tyranny and hold eastern Libya against the tyrant.

There should be an Article 7 UNSC Resolution against this man's rule and then foreign intervention to help the patriots of Cyrenaica and Tripolitania complete the liberation of their country.  A "no-fly zone?"  We can't do better than that?

Probably not, probably we will leave the patriot people of Libya to be butchered by Qathaafi if he regains power.   pl

#2011 Herzliyah Conference (Part 2) Clifford Kiracofe

 
The annual Herzliyah Conferences, begun in 2000, are hosted by the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliyah. This complex houses several academic institutions including the “Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy.” Cosmetics heir, Ronald Lauder, a key IDC financial backer was handed the ambassadorship to Austria by Ronald Reagan for campaign funding services duly rendered.

#Qaddhafi and the USA

 
The story of Mu'mar Qathaafi's relations with America could best be described as tragi-comedy.  His wretched little coup in 1969 was nothing like a popular revolution.  He and Captain Jaluus and a couple hundred men seized power in Tripoli during an absence of King Idris in Europe for a meeting.  I was in in Bavaria at the time supporting with communications and intelligence a meeting of senior commanders in Europe.  All the chatter on my circuit was among; these senior commanders, Washington and the CO of Wheelus AFB outside Tripoli.  The military men told Washington that this little puke could be easily taken down and that he represented no one except his tribe, the "al-Khathafa." "Bring down the brigade of paratroops at Lee Barracks at Mainz, Germany and we will set this right in an afternoon and bring back the king," was the message.  But, the US was deeply involved in VN and no more difficulties were wanted by President Nixon.  So, we let it go and for forty years the Libyans have lived with this madman.

Encouraged by this weakness, Qathaafi felt that he could support any sort of terrorist  enterprise whether it be Irish, African, Palestinian or anything else.  By the mid-80s this man believed his own fantasies and raved about the impotence of America, its cowardice, etc.  The result was his nonsense about the "Zone of Death" in the Gulf of Sirte and the discotec bombing in Germany.  The US response to this was an operation that bombed targets around Tripoli and Benghazi in retribution.  Having played a direct role in the targeting, I can say that we certainly intended to kill him and I am sorry that we did not succeed.  We aimed for his tent in Tripoli but inadvertence in delivery resulted in the bombs striking the building in the compound.  The same was true of the bombs that struck downtown.  They were dropped by an aircraft that had been mortally wounded and which crashed into the sea just offshore killing the crew.

After that Qathaafi "sobered up" about the US and began to beg like a dog at the door in a cold rain to be allowed in out of the weather by the US.  He begged in every conceivable channel.  He begged until 2003 when he realized that the GW Bush Administration was vulnerable to blandishments involving the offer of surrender to the "freedom agenda."  Who suggested that approach?  I have been told that Qathaafi's Saudi business partner suggested this approach, an approach that led to enormously lucrative oil contracts in Europe.  In pursuit of the relaxation of US hostility, Qathaafi accepted responsibility for Lockerbie and "gave up" his non-existent nuclear weapons program (a lot of junk in warehouses).  The US re-established diplomatic relations after that and Qathaafi was "re-constructed." 

Now we have this.

Why should we think that the world will take us seriously?  pl

 

#John Batchelor Show - 23 February 2011

 
My part of this starts at about 18 minutes into the segment.  pl

http://wabcradio.com/FlashPlayer/default.asp?SPID=33447&ID=2118174

#What is really going on in the Middle East? (2) - Yusuf al-Misry

 
In the 50’s, the world was mesmerized while it watched the titanic changes occurring in the Middle East at the hands of juntas with different names toppling one regime after another. These juntas seem to have determined to give us one last spectacle as they now crumble one after the other.

The first part of this analysis was in fact a delayed answer to a question by a US military officer (and a friend of Col Lang) working in Cairo about the reasons Nasser chose the path he had in running Egypt. Time was short when the question was asked and I could not answer the question then.

#2011 HERZLIYA CONFERENCE IN ISRAEL Clifford Kiracofe

 
The annual Herzliya Conference held in Israel is a useful indicator of Israeli foreign policy, national security planning, and diaspora management. It is convened and hosted by the Institute for Policy and Strategy and held on the Campus of the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) located at Herzliya, Israel. For Americans interested in the politics and policy of international Zionism, the presence of US “experts” is of special interest.

The just concluded 11th annual conference, February 6-9, fielded a number of US present and former officials and experts. Noteworthy officials included James Woolsey (Fmr. Director CIA), Douglas Andrew Smith (US Asst Sec Homeland Security), Alan Vershbow (Asst Secdef ISA), Robert Wexler (Fmr. Congressman D-FL), Larry Summers (Fmr. US Sec Treasury), Ronald Lauder (Fmr. Ambassador, Pres. World Jewish Congress), Gen. (ret.) James Jones, Mary-Beth Long (Fmr. Asst Secdef ISA), and Dov Zakheim (Fmr. DOD Comptroller).

US pro-Israel think tanks were represented by Danielle Pletka (American Enterprise Institute), Ayan Hirsi Ali (American Enterprise Institute), Clyde Prestowitz (Economic Strategy Institute), Ariel Cohen (Heritage Foundation), Kenneth Weinstein (Hudson Institute), Peter Berkowitz (Hoover Institution), Brian Katulis (Center for American Progress), Patrick Clawson (Washington Institute for Near East Policy), and Mark Dubowitz (Foundation for the Defense of Democracies). Judith Miller (Fmr. New York Times) represented US journalists.

The overall focus of the conference is Israeli national security. Various panels considered such topics as: “Can the World Live with a Nuclear Iran?”, “The New Global Balance of Power: The Shift to the East”, “All the Eggs in One Basket? America’s Place in Israel’s Foreign Policy”, “Securing the Future of Israel and the Jewish People”, “The Broader Middle East Game: The US, Europe and Regional Stability,” “Is Israel Losing Europe”, “Turkey a Cause for Concern?”, “The Iranian Challenge: Political Alternatives and Beyond”, and significantly “Dilemmas In US Policy in the Middle East: Stability vs. Democracy?”.

Curiously, possible Republican presidential candidate Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi presented concluding remarks at the panel on “International Sanctions and Iran’s Domestic Arena”. One wonders who wrote those remarks for him although one can understand the visit to Israel as his first primary.

The excellent and fascinating website of the annual Herzliya Conference is well worth a view: http://www.herzliyaconference.org/eng/

#John Batchelor Show 22 February 2011

 
Our part of this starts at 18:30 minutes into the segment.  pl

http://wabcradio.com/FlashPlayer/default.asp?SPID=33447&ID=2117119

#HARPER: THE ANGELIDES REPORT

 
On February 13, 2011, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, known as the Angelides Commission, completed their one year mandate, and submitted a 500 page report to Congress.  That report is now a nationwide bestseller on both the New York Times and Washington Post list--and for good reason.  Don't be put off by the fact that this was a Congressionally-mandated investigation, or that a number of the Republican members of the commission issued dissenting reports.

More John Batchelor tonight.

2230.  pl

#POLITICS OF THE IRAN NIE - Clifford Kiracofe

 

The politics of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) for Iran is a serious matter because it can be used to drive these United States into a preventive war against Iran. Israel, the United States’ “strategic partner in the Middle East, seeks such a war. Pro-Israel propaganda advocating preventive war focuses on the threat of alleged Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). Such propaganda targets the general public as well as Congress and the White House. Will the White House, as in the case of the Iraq War, be complicit in promoting such propaganda?

#What is really going on in the Middle East? (1 of 3) Yusuf al-Misry

 
It looks as if a sand storm is in its peak now in the Middle East. How can all this be understood?

I understand that my American friends look at this whole storm from their perspective and more or less within the context of the debate that has been going on in the US for some time now. But the fact is that people in the region are not aware of these perspectives and debates. They have their own motives and ideas and they are busy making their own history according to their own perceptions.

This sand storm, like some other storms, blows away layers of sand to reveal skeletons of dead animals, useless rocks and sometime hidden treasures. What is it that we will find at the end of these breathtaking events that seem to take everyone by surprise, including some of those who protest everywhere in the region now?

 

#Libya - John Batchelor show 21 February 2011

 
John Batchelor Show on 21 February 2011.  Our part starts at about 18:40 into the segment.  pl

http://wabcradio.com/FlashPlayer/default.asp?SPID=33447&ID=2116014

#Libya John Batchelor Show 20 Feb 2011

 
This is last night on the John Batchelor Show.  Our part starts at around 18:00 minutes in.  On tonight at 10:30.  pl

http://podfuse-dl.andomedia.com/800185/podfuse-origin.andomedia.com/citadel_origin/pods/WABC/WABC-Batchelor/jbs_022011a.mp3

 

#Libya et al

 
The Qaddhafi regime (we used to call it the Government of Libya) and several other Middle Eastern and North African states are in big trouble.  Revolutionary hysteria is once again developing in  the 24/7 cable news media.  Dylan Ratigan clearly sees himself as either Tom Paine or Robespierre depending on the hour. A "guest" on his show just said that Mubarak, like the Qaddhafi regime, ordered Egyptian Air Force aircraft to fire on the Cairo crowds.  I do not know that this is true, but, clearly for the jacobins, truth means nothing. 

No one should be sorry to see Qaddhafi go.  His sons will not go quietly and the likelihood of large scale bloodshed is pronounced.  the country is a collage of variegated tribes, sects, military factions, etc.  As the benighted Saif-al-Islam Qaddhafi said yesterday, anything can happen now.  A "spike" in prices on the spot oil market is inevitable and it may go very high if the flow from Libyan oil ports is interrupted for long.

In the Gulf, I do not think that regime change in Bahrein or Kuwait is likely in spite of the designation of these governments by the media as "regimes."  Saudi Arabia will intevene, if necessary, militarily to prevent that.  The precedent for the Shia population of the Eastern Province would be much too beguiling for the Saudi "regime" to allow regime change to occur.  In the event of such intervention the police troops of the Ministry of Interior (Prince Naif), and the Saudi National Guard (SANG-an all Sunni tribal beduin) force would be the instruments of choice.  If that happens expect to see a lot of blood.  Those beduins do not like Shia in the best of times.

Yemen.  Salih will manage this to a successful conclusion.

The jacobin neocons are crowing in delight at the prospect of revolution.  We will see how long that lasts.   pl

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110221/ap_on_re_af/af_libya_protests

#Libya, George W. Bush , Qaddhafi and civil war

 
"Libya is defying growing international condemnation of a bloody crackdown that saw troops and mercenaries firing at unarmed demonstrators as the death toll rose to more than 200."  The Guardian

----------------------------------------------------------

Do you remember the pathetic eagerness with which the Cheney/Bush/neocon/AIPAC/WINEP apparat embraced Qaddhafi's Jamahiriya (rule of the masses, maybe?)?  After having been held in contempt by the US government for decades as the lunatic that he is, Qaddhafi (the howler, in Arabic) was welcomed home to Washington's favor because he finally understood and exploited Bush's sad desire to have an Arab leader "reform" and give up his nuclear weapons program.  In fact, Libya never had a functioning nuclear weapons program.  What it had was a warehouse or two full of parts and equipment with which to set up such a program, one that it never had the capacity to undertake in the real world.

Nevertheless, how sweet it was for the Bushies.  The fact that Qaddhafi remained the same homicidal tyrant who overthrew Idris long ago meant nothing to "policy" wonks obsessed with their desired future.  pl

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/20/libya-defiant-protesters-feared-dead

#AMERICA’S MIDDLE EAST DILEMMA - Clifford Kiracofe

 
Today, the world witnesses a new sense of Arab unity and identity especially among the educated youth with their social media and generally modernist self-identity. For older generations, memories of Nasser and pan-Arabism return.

This new sense of Arab identity drives the re-awakening of a culture of resistance which, for now, is a resistance to local tyrants. It is inevitable as the democratization process continues, in whatever form, that a renewed culture of resistance to Israel will develop given decades of aggressive Israeli behavior.

Egypt’s special relationship with Israel was organized under pressure from Washington during the Sadat years with the 1979 peace treaty is the pivot. The treaty neutralized Egypt and removed Israeli concerns about a southern front. Israel thus gained a “free hand” for regional aggression. Wars against Lebanon and increased repression of the Palestinians followed.

#Update : The Raymond Davis Affair ‒ FB Ali

The saga rolls on, while (as they used to say in the old pulp novels) the plot thickens. Davis remains in prison awaiting trial. Relations between Pakistan and the US continue to be quite strained. And the circle of collateral damage widens.

 The facts of the incident that sparked all this are now fairly clear. Davis, in a rental car, was driving around in Lahore in areas where foreigners scarcely ever venture, tailed by two ISI auxiliaries on a motorbike. After an hour or more of trying to shake them off, they both came abreast at a stoplight. He pulled out a gun and, firing through his windscreen, shot them both. Accounts differ as to whether they made any threatening gesture, but one was killed as he was trying to run away.

The backup van that Davis called for came roaring up the wrong way on a one-way street, ran over a cyclist, killing him, then turned around and roared off. Davis was arrested, and weapons, ammo and other paraphernalia were found in the car. On his cell phone were numbers that were later traced to phones in the tribal belt where the Taliban operate, while his camera had pictures of religious schools and military sites.

#AMERICA FLYING BLIND

 
Turmoil among America’s client states in the Middle East is fracturing the foundation of our strategic position in the region. As of now, Washington policymakers are refraining from dashing about in public crying; “the sky is falling.”  That is a good thing.  Rather, they seem to be flapping their wings excitedly within the confines of the coop.  There are no signs yet of rigorous and deliberate efforts to rethink the fundamentals of American policy.  That is a bad thing.  Were our leaders inclined to do so, it would be sensible to start with some indisputable givens. 

One, Washington does not bear direct responsibility for either the popular challenge to autocracy or the attempts at its brutal suppression.  We must finally acknowledge that there are forces at work beyond our control or even influence.  Two, we are stuck though with allies in the Gulf who have shown their true colors as thuggish, corrupt regimes.  They have draw a line of blood between themselves and their people that will endure.  Which side are you on becomes the overriding question for all.  Three, the American tightrope act of simultaneously casting ourselves as the champions of democracy and freedom, on the one hand, and clear eyed realists who are rock solid backers of its friends, on the other, has suffered a disabling fall.  Four, it is suicidal to pretend that the United States somehow can revert to the foreign policy perspective ante with just a few tactical adjustments.  That is most certainly true in regard to its servile relationship with Israel.  Five, the current team calling the shots in Washington is not ready to do anything more than muddle through.  From Barack Obama on down, they have neither the insight into the Middle East’s intricate politics, nor the diplomatic skill, nor the experience, nor the strength of character to reset the bearings for a fresh course.  Running through one’s mind the backgrounds of Obama, Biden (Mubarak is not a dictator), Donilon, Clinton, Gates, Panetta, Clapper and their deputies, it is stunning to realize that there is not one who has more than a cursory understanding of the region’s culture, history and personalities.  At this moment of epochal change, the United States is flying through a fog bank while wearing distorting lenses with the drone of ‘stay the course’ in their ear phones.  This is world change you can believe it.  It is the capacity to cope with it that evokes disbelief.  Michael Brenner

 

 

5th Fleet and NSA Bahrain

 
The media are once again "getting it wrong."  It is the "5th Fleet,' not the "6th Fleet" that has its headquarters at "Naval Support Activity" Manama, Bahrain.  A US Navy numbered fleet headquarters has operational control of naval units (ships, air groups, and marine amphibious units) temporarily "given" to it while in they are in its geographical area of responsibility on deployment from home ports and bases in the United States.  Such is the case with 5th Fleet.  It is a headquarters, a service component or part of US Central Command. 

The NSA Manama is a modernization of the old British Royal Navy base "Juffair."  When the British left the Gulf, the US started to use part of the facility as a headquarters for the very small (2 or 3 ships) US naval force that was there for many years.  One of the chief enducements for the then "emir" of Bahrain to allow this was the use of the American school for children that came with the small headquarters.

Today, NSA Manama provides space for the 5th Fleet Headquarters, limited supply and maintenance facilities and a Base Exchange (store) and recreation facilities for sailore and marines on shore leave.

This is a useful facility, but hardly "key" in the sense that the media are portraing it.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Fifth_Fleet

 

 

Time Magazine and Omar Suleiman

 
This author, Tony Karon, seems to believe that Omar Suleiman is running the junta in Egypt.  Is there any evidence to support that idea.  pl

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,2045328_2045338_2048148,00.html

Can it Happen Here? - Robert K. Lifton

 

 We watched with admiration the revolt of the Egyptian public, led by its youth, against the autocracy that controlled the country. The protestors demanded jobs to reduce the crushing burdens of unemployment, particularly on the young. They raged against the rising prices for food and other goods that were the mainstays of daily family life. They denounced government policies and actions that allowed vast accumulation of wealth by a small group of businessmen and politically powerful figures who lived lives of luxury while the rest of their countrymen suffered.  Their protests are the substance of similar demonstrations in Tunisia and Yemen among others.

Unhappily, every one of those problems is besetting our own country. 

Bahrain - the pronunciation

For the media - et al

It is Bah-rain.  The H is aspirated and there is a syllable break after the H.  It is NOT Baa-rain.  Nor is it Bach-rain.  pl

Yusuf al-Misry 18 Feb 2011

 
The arms wrestling match in Egypt is entering an important phase. More than 2 million gathered Today (Friday) at Tahrir Sq. The MBs tried, as expected, to color the protest with a chain of prayers. But soon after, the protesters went back to their demands of dismissing the cabinet of Shafiq and the implentation of the rest of the demands including a "civil state". Details aside, the significance of Today's protest lies in the fact that it is a message to the military and to the aides of former President Mubarak that there is to be no "let down." My concern now is about next Friday. Sheikh Qaradawy, a prominent Islamic figure called for giving the military a chance. He said that God created earth in 6 days while he could creat it in a second. He also called for ending strikes and patience. This was a direct consequence of negotiations between the MBs and the military.

The junta and the constitution

 
"the only course of action now is for a constituent assembly to be elected and draft a new constitution." Al-Ahram on line

------------------------------------------------------

This piece makes my point exactly.  The junta cannot modify the constitution of Egypt because it lacks legal status or any other form of legitimacy other than a "hand off" from Husni Mubarack,  a "hand off" that he had no authority to make.  pl

http://english.ahram.org.eg/~/NewsContent/1/64/5820/Egypt/Politics-/Experts-and-Judges-reject-constitutional-reform-co.aspx

Curveball, the neocons and guilt

Those who have inhabited this space for a long time know that SST opposed the invasion of Iraq on the basis of a lack of justification.  "Curveball," the Iraqi HUMINT source, provided false witness to American intelligence concerning supposed Iraqi biological weapons.  He admits now that he deliberately did this to trick the US into going to war.  He wanted Saddam gone.  The neocon run "Office of Special Plans" in the Rumsfeld's DoD rammed "Curveball" down the throat of DIA. 

The guilt for the bloodshed of Iraq rests with the neocons led by people like Wolfowitz, Feith and Perle.  pl

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/international/middle_east/view.bg?articleid=1317288

Ancestor data call

My great, great grandfather in the Irish line was John Lang, born about 1801 in County Louth.  At some point he emigrated to Madrid, St. Lawrence County, NewYork.  There he married Mary Dailey, born in County Meath.  We have hit a roadblock in researching this line.  Anyone know anything?

This "blockage" is odd because in other lines (French and English) my wife's research has taken us back into the 16th Century.  pl

Regarding the costs...

 
David Hackworth and I shared a platform in Plano Texas a couple of months before the 2003 invasion. He had taught me ranger patrolling when I was a cadet and he was a captain. It was a reunion to remember. The occasion was a "reward' for a local bank for their customers, kind of a "pep rally" for the coming war. The thousand or so Yahoos in boots, beltbuckles and hats were visibly stunned when the two old soldiers told them that they were fools and that the US government was made up of fools who had no idea what the costs would be to all concerned; the Iraqis who inevitably would be killed, maimed and otherwise ruined, and the costs that would be paid by the US soldiers involved. Those costs would reveal themselves more slowly and they would be higher in direct proportion to just how much one fought. God knows Hack had paid a high price in psychological damage. We told them that so far as we could tell there was nothing in Iraq dangerous enough to justify what would happen there.  When we were through, a Yahoo asked if that meant we would not serve if needed. That was both insulting and ignorant. People like Hackworth serve until they are destroyed. pl

DO UNTO OTHERS - MICHAEL BRENNER

 
THE MEASURE OF MOST THINGS

We are now in the 10^th year of the first decade of the ‘war on terror.’ So the inevitable anniversary assessments are beginning to make an appearance.  Iraq reappraisals are back in vogue.  They favor the drawing of balance sheets.  They leave something missing – something of paramount importance.  That is the effects on Iraqis themselves.  Not Iraqis in the abstract, not as figures in a statistical category of sects.  Rather, as flesh and blood and feeling persons.  Frankly, most of the discourse about Iraq from day one has had a disengaged quality to it.  That is the norm for dominant powers on the world stage; and for the seminar strategist. That was not always the norm by which Americans referenced war and violence

Facebook and Twitter

In spite of advice to the contrary here I have opened accounts on which future posts will be mentioned.

Twitter address - @pat_lang

pl

A Cautionary Note on Egypt - Richard Sale

 
By Richard Sale, author of Clinton’s Secret Wars.

The current TV and news coverage in America ignores the fact that the Egyptian mind is very unlike our own. I believe that today we should be thinking not of similarities between ourselves and the Egyptians but of the dissimilarities. We must not be like the American who initially sees in an Englishman a glorious and welcome replica, an almost perfect copy, only later to come to quarrel over the differences that emerge. The best course would be the opposite – to see the Englishman first as a foreigner and only later come to appreciate the things that the two of you share in common. Some  erk in the New York Times, Nicholas Kristof, recently said with a gush:  “We are all Egyptians now!” That is false and repulsive. It insults the Egyptians. 

Yusuf al-Misry - 15 February 2011

 
There were indeed two sessions of negotiations between the military council and the MBs. Some of the issues agreed upon are that the MBs will form a political party which will receive legal recognition. The first meeting was held with the representatives of the leadership. The Generals requsted the organizations help to calm the street and end the chain of strikes that is spreading everywhere.

 Unconfirmed reports indicate that the the leadership requested in return  that the military hold a meeting with their own Youth Movement to help convince them to change roles and help in calming the situation. Representatives of the youth movement held the second meeting with two Generals one of them is the head of the military intelligence service.

Tulsa Interview - 14 February 2011

 

http://kfaq.typepad.com/patcampbell/

Pat Campbell is an exceptional interviewer.  At his page go to podcast button on the right.  pl

 

 

Radio NZ Interview - 13 February 2011

 

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint

The segment that begins at 18:06 is my interview.  pl

Yusuf al-Misry - 14 February 2011 (part 2)

 
The leaders of the MBs are no where to be seen now. That is the third day. I do not know what to make of it. One of them said that they do not want to be used to frighten the external world of the "revolution". In my view this b...sh... Whether there are negotiations going on with the military council to give them legal recognition as a party or they are busy studying what happened and their failure to lead the population and the youth. Gen Sulliman hinted three days before the departure of Mubarak that the MBs "better join the negotiations or else they will miss a very good opportunity for them". They did in public which created a backlash from their own bases. If the Generals offer was still on, and I believe it is, they might have decided to take "the very good opportunity".

But what will they pay in return. I am constantly thinking about that but did not reach an answer. I have to wait till one of their elders utters a word or two indicating there is something or until I find whoever can explain to me..that is if there are negotiations to start with. But I think the MBs were in their worst during the uprising as I explained previously. They proved to be unable to swim when the current goes towards a massive popular uprising chanting "freedom".

Whether or not they will get legal recognition is a silly question now..they always had a semi-legal one and every body now has a kind of legal recognition. If there is a deal it will be rather about their position towards the council..this could be an ominous development not because they will be recognized but because of the big question of why the military council negotiated and signed a deal.
FB ali is very accurate in describing the reason why people were praying. I was with them at the SQ. and I know many of them..they refuse the MBs completely. There will certainly be another occasion to put clearly more input on why the uprising was in many ways a step back to the Brothers in the long term and not the opposite.

Yusu al-Misry

 

Dealing with change - FB Ali

Barack Obama was elected as the apostle and agent of change. He hasn’t been able to bring about much change, but is now likely to get his fill dealing with it ‒ not in the US, but in the Muslim world. What has happened in Tunisia and Egypt is not some passing phenomenon. There is a wave of change surging through Muslim countries, and it is likely to ebb and flow for a long time. Obama (and his successor) are going to have their hands full coping with it. As will other powers. For this is the latest phase in the relationship between the Muslim world and the rest.

Yusuf al-Misry - 14 February 2011

 
As I  said before, there are signs of loss of patience coming from the military council that is running the show her. Does that mean necessarily that they will "abort" the demands of the population?. My impression is that this whole thing can go either way as I expressed before but both ways do not include a military dictatorship.

 The military issued a communique ordering total ban of strikes and sit-ins, They also sent the MP to Tahrir square to clear it "within half hour" as they said or else they will be arrested.

All this will open the door to more skepticism. It will show that optimism is kind of childish illusions. I heard what the youth said following their meeting with Gen Hegazy and another Gen from the council. And it was indeed childish optimism. The rumor now is that Mubarak is running the thing from Sharm. Shafiq said he is there and the council said the Gen Sulliman will have a role in the new set of things ( Col Lang was right in hinting that  Sulliman may not be history).

Yusuf al-Misry 13 February 2011 (part 2)

 
Pat..I wish that this comment is put in response to your question about the fate of Sulliman.

It is true that Gen Ahmed Shafiq is appointed bt Mubarak but he was reassigned to his position by the military council. His reappointment is a mistake. But it is still until now a technical one so to speak. There is an utter urgency to return to normality. I believe that the choice that the council faced was either to engage in the process of forming a new cabinet or to reappoint the previous PM as a care taker.

With no constitution, who is Ahmed Shafik?

 
"Egypt's prime minister said on Sunday the military would determine the role of Omar Suleiman, who was appointed vice president by ousted President Hosni Mubarak.

"The role of Omar Suleiman will be defined by the Higher Military Council," Ahmed Shafiq said"  Worldbulletin

--------------------------------------------------

A curious announcement.  Ahmed Shafik was appointed by Mubarak.  Is he legally still Prime Minister?  The constitution is suspended.  What is the basis for his authority? Omar Suleiman was also appointed by Mubarak.  His role "will be defined by the Higher Military Council."  What is the basis for their authority?  All those Abrams tanks perhaps? 

Does any of this begin to make you uneasy?  pl

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=69761

 

Yusuf al-Misry - 13 February 2011

 
The current moment in Egypt will define the the near future of this country and the whole Middle East. But the complexity of the moment makes it difficult for anyone here to feel reassured. If the main issue now is stability, and it indeed is, that does not make things easier. Stability is a very abstract word.  It varies according to the specific situation that calls for it. The specific situation in Egypt now is moving quickly under the pressure of multiple forces. The main is awakened population that is confident and determined to participate in the process of shaping the future. The second is obviously the armed forces which is confident of the popular support and determined to play a role.

Dr. Brenner's Resume

Download BRENNER RESUME February

John Batchelor Show - 11 February 2011

 
My part of this comes on at about 17:50 minutes in.

http://podfuse-dl.andomedia.com/800185/podfuse-origin.andomedia.com/citadel_origin/pods/WABC/WABC-Batchelor/source/jbs_021111b.mp3

 

 

WHAT NEXT FOR THE U.S. IN THE MIDDLE EAST? - Michael Brenner

 
The fall of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt calls for a rethink of American strategy in the Middle East.  Egypt has been the keystone of a set of interlocking policies on Palestine, on the suppression of Islamist movements, and on resisting the spread of Iranian influence.  The American organized and lead concert includes the Arab triad of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.  A tacit member is Israel.  This improbable coalition is cemented by convergent national interests as each government defines them.  Paramount is regime survival.  The three Arab autocracies live in dread of popular uprisings that could drive them from power.  Discontent varies in intensity – being highest in Egypt as now has been made manifest.  Their common fear is fundamentalist Islamist movements, i.e. the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, analogous diverse formations in Jordan, and al-Qaeda in Arabia the most deadly threat to the House of Saud.  Any development in the Middle East that is seen as strengthening those forces, or even instability that could incubate them, deepens anxiety.  Firm control at home and bolstering the status quo throughout the region are viewed as the keys to regime survival.

There is no Egyptian government now.

 

Having listened to the statement of the armed forces spokesman; I presume that was General Anan.  I would say that we now have a military junta in charge in Egypt.  HM's departure after resignation leaves no law in Egypt except the will of the Egyptian generals.  Under the present Egyptian constitution the speaker of the house succeeds to the presidency on resignation of the president.  That did not happen.  Mubarak's authority did not extend beyond his resignation.  We could have had a constitutional succession but that is dead and gone as a possibility now.  Now there is an extra-legal, extra-constitutional regime in charge governing under the authority of NO law.  The junta has dissolved the parliament and fired the cabinet.  The emergency law is no longer needed.  The only law is the will of the generals.  Since he was not mentioned in today's statement, I would think that Omar Suleiman will have little or no role.  Let us hope that the generals are benevolent.  1952 comes to mind.  The Egyptian Armed forces have only two political traditions.  1- They overthrew the monarchy in a similar soft coup in 1952 and 2- They have ruled Egypt ever since.

I just heard someone ask Robert Gibbs if Obama had called anyone in Egypt since the resignation.  Who would he call, the head of the junta?   pl

Clapper and Panetta - a double "strike-out."

 

I take note of the fact that "sibling" rivalry and ignorance made a spectacle of the testimony yesterday of the DNI and the director of the CIA.  It was pathetic.

Pannetta, in an evident desire to upstage Clapper told the Congress that HB would be gone (implying last night).  It seems that this prophecy was based on media reporting.  He is the director of CIA?  Why?

Then, Clapper told the Congress that the leaders of the Muslim Brothers are"secular."  He based that on the incorrect belief that because they are not "clerics," and are instead engineers, doctors, lawyers, etc. they must be "secular."  Jimmy Clapper has been in the national intelligence scene since he was Director of DIA in the '90s. (loathing alert), then he headed the space imaging/mapping thingy, then an OSD boffin, then this.  In all that ime he never learned that there are no clergy in Islam, that the bearded ones in turbans are just scholars and judges, that there are NO PRIESTS AND NO CLERGY? The fact that the leaders of the MBB do not wear robes and turbans is meaningless.  pl