"Iran not working on bomb: Israel intelligence head" AFP

"Kochavi said it was unlikely that Iran, which currently enriches uranium to 20 percent, would start enriching it to the 90 percent level needed for a bomb, because it would be in open breach of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty exposing it to harsher sanctions or even a US or Israeli military strike."  AFP

------------------------------------------------------------

OK.  So what has all this been about?  Was the legendary Israeli intelligence community this wrong?  Yes.  pl 

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gShKfmWcoQ1ABBQ_DodMUUh61ckA?docId=CNG.95111380dfbe35f8a08d6124c5e915e8.e11

 

Comments

[Anthony]

Those crazy iranians, what will they do next?

Iran to observe International Holocaust Remembrance Day for first time

http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/iran-to-observe-international-holocaust-remembrance-day-for-first-time-1.339368#

[Christianophobie]

The Israeli intelligence community can try to release false or inaccurate informations, it won't be a surprise.

[arbogast]

Who do Israeli intelligence and American neocons want to believe Iran is getting a bomb?

Isn't that the question?

And isn't the answer: the domestic population of the United States?

Isn't the hysteria over an Iranian bomb a political strategy intended to keep the Israeli hard right in power in Israel and the US... and has very little to do with Iran?

After all, why are we in Afghanistan? To protect the interests of the United States? Or to protect the interests of a political class in the US?

[William R. Cumming]

Well maybe the Iranians have learned from Saddam Hussein. If you want to be invaded pretend you have WMD?

[Rd.]

OK. So what has all this been about? Was the legendary Israeli intelligence community this wrong? Yes. pl

Perhaps they saw the writings on their walls around them!! I know I am giving them too much credit, but..] Tunisia, Egypt, will Jordan be next?

May be it is safer no to stir the pot while it is boiling right under/around your feet.

Then again, with the help of Corp media, they can always ring the alarms any time.

[Patrick Lang]

Rd

Well let's see how they like it if they are surrounded by Islamist regimes. pl

[Matthew]

Col: Are the Israelis wrong?

If the "answer" was global stangulation of Iran, more aid (Iron Dome), and further binding of America to Israel's interests, then I'd say the Israeli Intelligence Service has achieved a stunning success.

[Fred]

"Kochavi said it was unlikely that Iran ...would start enriching it (uranium) to the 90 percent level needed for a bomb, because it would be in open breach of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty exposing it to harsher sanctions..."

Israel has yet to sign or abide by the NPT. In addition Iran would need more than 90% enrichment level to make a bomb.

" ... the former head of the Mossad... Meir Dagan, have said that Iran is unlikely to acquire nuclear weapons before 2015.

Just in time to flog the issue for the 2016 US presidential election.
Oh, and thanks for the suxtent virus, how wonderful to unleash it without reason, especially as Iran is closing their borders to fuel delivery to Afghanistan - which includes fuel for US forces. http://www.startribune.com/business/114083779.html

Some ally.

[Russ Wagenfeld]

Hi Pat,
Might the success of the Stuxnet virus/worm account for this re-assessment? It apparently caused something on the order of nearly 1000 centrifuges to destroy themselves before the problem was identified. Speculation is that the US and/or Israel created it.
Regards,
Russ

[Charles]

Odd statement by the Intel Chief given that the Iranians had to have been enriching uranium for some purpose other than energy -- they could have bought nuclear fuel on the world market and, in fact, were offered exactly that last year.

Wonder if the announcement was made simply to generate discussion of Iran's nuclear program? The Israelis are seldom that subtle, but the other explanations do not fit the facts.

[confusedponderer]

Charles

they could have bought nuclear fuel on the world market and, in fact, were offered exactly that last year.

Huh?

I mean, you're right, in a superficial way. Yes, there was a deal brokered by the Turkish and the Brazilians that would see iirc Turkish enriched Uranium sold to them last year. The US blocked that one.

There was some time ago iirc a scheme where the Iranians would buy Russian produced fuel, but that didn't go anywhere, for reasons that I can't remember atm.

The Iranians were also some time ago iirc offered to buy French-produced fuel. They didn't like that offer because iirc once already the French cheated on them once before (hey iirc took they money and didn't deliver any returns). Fool me once ...

Considering the existence of something like Stuxnet, the Iranians are actually quite reasonable to expect to be cheated in one way or the other. And then, they can enrich quite comfortably since the NPT gives them the inalienable right to do so for peaceful purposes.

In order to attempt to deny them that right one had to assert that, aha, they did enrich for military purposes.

The outgoing and the new Mossad heads have poured cold water over that one, while keeping the option open to crank up the noise machine again, say, in case they change their mind.

[confusedponderer]

PS: ... and as for the military purposes, there has a lot of 'black ops' disinformation going on about that. That 'laptop of doom', containing alleged Iranian warhead plans is apparently very likely to be a forgery.

PPS: No time for links atm.

[Grimgrin]

Charles: There wasn't an offer last year, there was a negotiated agreement between Iran Turkey and Brazil for a fuel swap. A day after the deal was announced the US sabotaged it by announcing a new round of sanctions.

[Marcus]

Charles: "they could have bought nuclear fuel on the world market and, in fact, were offered exactly that last year."

Really? No stipulations attached? Like having "inspectors" (your enemy's spies) poking around their strategic sites.

[R Whitman]

The propensity for intelligence services to decieve themselves is legendary.

Iran, in all probability, alredy has some nuclear weapons, stolen from stockpiles in the US and the former Soviet Union.

[Jake]

This is what happens when intelligence and the intelligence community becomes politicized rather than real. It does not make a difference if Iran was enriching uranium for power, bombs or for fun. The job of intelligence analysts is to answer the question to to best of their abilities... truthfully, for the security of all. Not for a political ideology.

We just never learn.

[Patrick Lang]

jake

The US IC has been consistently correct on the question of the Iranian nuclear program. It is the ISRAELI IC that has been driven by delusion. pl

[Jake]

By the way, CIA, Mossad? They all part of one family? WTF ( and I don't mean Western Task Force) Over?

"We've got more time than we thought," former CIA Director Gen. Michael Hayden told Reuters, adding that the “key decision point” for possible military action against Iran has been effectively postponed “until the next presidential term.”

http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0111/US_believes_Iran_nuclear_work_slowed.html

Here is a no $hit Sherlock statement from one of our Gubberment Off-icials who job it is to be off mark most of the time.

“While they've got a lot of knowledge, putting it into practice is a whole different ball game."

You mean to tell us that, just because Iran might know how to build a bomb, that even if they do, they still have to minimize it and match it to a launch vehicle collar ( which is more difficult than building the thing)? What are they going to launch it with in the meantime? A Camel? Just Shocking!

Brings confidence to know that your intelligence service is driving around the world with the its sun shades stuck to its windshield.

[Patrick Lang]

Jake

If you think that the US and Izzie ICs are one happy group, you never worked there. pl

[Jake]

Colonel

With all due respect.

You mean "parts" of the US IC has been consistently correct. CIA has been sending "mixed" signals since day one, i.e., "CIA: Iran capable of producing nukes" and "CIA: Iran Moving Closer to Nuclear Weapon", et al. DNI has been the parrot and is clueless.

MSIC has been very consistent with its position. But it is not that high on the DNI food chain.

The USIC while opinions differ from analyst to analyst, it is suppose to speak as one through DNI. In my opinion, the entire reorganization of the IC was walk with the Marx Brothers.

[Jake]

Colonel

I have never worked "for" the IC. However, I have worked with parts of the IC. I am not naive to the issues nor the problems. Just frustrated and disgusted.

[Rd.]

“Oh, and thanks for the suxtent virus, how wonderful to unleash it without reason”

Oh one might say there certainly was reason, the un-intended consequences reason. The cows out of that virus will come home to a theater nearby!

To assume, the rest of the world would sit ideally and continue to buy IT related technologies from US for their state institutions (security and otherwise) would be, well Israelie!

Up to now, most were willing to purchase Microsoft, and US IT products. This incident would provide the opportunity for competing entities to offer their own products. No (independent) state in the right mind would consider their security in the hands of US based IT products.

And if you have any doubt on their ability to create their own IT products, just look up who are the lead students in various top notch IT / high tech university in US and else where.

The one industry in US that is doing well, offers jobs and exports products all over the world. Thank you whomever those intelligent people where behind this mis-adventure. You guys are as bright as a sack of hair!

[Patrick Lang]

Rd

Nah! they have always bought this gear even though they knew we could build backdoors into all of it. pl

[Fred]

Rd,

You mean the students from the PRC? No surprise as the universities have succumed to the 'run it like a business' mantra that's been pushed for at least a couple of decades. Think of all that out of state tuition they get to charge and how wonderful the 'rankings' based on SAT/GRE/GMAT scores and GPAs look. The graduate assistants, why you don't even need to pay them as they bring their own funding, courtesy of the PRC government. Not exactly in the US national interest. Unlike our own students they aren't majoring in political science.

[shepherd]

Rd,

Siemens is not a US company. Their PLCs were a key target of the virus.