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07 January 2011

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turcopolier

Charles I

In re the Israelis, I think it is a combination of strategic blindness (characteristic of them) and a reliance on a putative US second strike on Pakistan if that happened. pl

robt willmann

A reason, perhaps the dominant one, that Pakistan will not launch a first strike against Israel if it has the delivery capacity to do so, and which applies equally to Iran, has nothing to do with "capability" or the number of nuclear weapons the country might have.

It is the effect of radioactive fallout on the countries next to Israel. Papers have been written about the movement of radioactivity after a nuclear explosion, of course, and is a critical issue in addition to blast effect parameters. If a nuclear device exploded at or near Tel Aviv, then the prevailing winds and distances would decide the movement of radioactive fallout. The distance going out of Israel is short.

Neither Pakistan nor Iran want to poison the Palestinians, Syrians, Lebanese, Jordanians, or others nearby with radioactive material.

Thus, if the government of Israel does not attack Pakistan or Iran as a first strike, with or without the U.S.A. as a coconspirator or active participant, then it does not have to worry about Pakistan or Iran attacking it with nuclear weapons, no matter how many nuclear devices, missiles, or bombers Pakistan or Iran might have.

turcopolier

R. Willman

An air burst in which the fireball does not touch the ground produces no fall out. pl

confusedponderer

I assume he is referring to tritium and deuterium gas, or lithium deuteride.

Boosted fission weapon

Nuclear weapon design

Basilisk


An air burst in which the fireball does not touch the ground produces no fall out. pl

Would it were that simple, but "no," that is not the case.

http://www.remm.nlm.gov/fallout_mushroomcloud.htm

William R. Cumming

So like the former nation-state called Russia, Pakistan is considered a nation-state largely because of its nuclear arsenal?

turcopolier

Basilisk

"A nuclear weapon detonated in the air, called an air burst, produces less fallout than a comparable explosion near the ground." wiki on nuclear fallout

Actually, A lot less depending on the height of the burst. pl

robt willmann

Are there any citations to articles and reports of experimental tests discussing the position that an atomic or hydrogen bomb exploding in the air in which the fireball does not touch the ground produces no radioactive fallout or other toxic material?

The Moar You Know

It's not the missile but the warhead. Of course the Paks can lay their hands on a missile that can hit Israel - but if their warheads each weigh 20 tons, that missile would have its range shortened down to about a half a mile.

We don't know what the state of their warheads are, but I'm betting its pretty crude.

turcopolier

r. willman

Hey, i changed my position to "a lot less." pl

turcopolier

tmyk

since they have had warheads for fighter bomber delivery for quite a while, why would you posit warheads that weigh 20 tons? pl

turcopolier

all

"Delivery systems

[edit] Land systems

As of 2011, Pakistan possesses a wide variety of thermonuclear MIRV-equipped medium range ballistic missiles with ranges up to 2500 km. Pakistan is also believed to be developing tactical nuclear weapons for use on the battlefield with ranges up to 60 km such as the Nasr missile. Pakistan also possesses nuclear tipped Babur cruise missiles with ranges up to 700 km. With further funding and R&D, Pakistan can also develop Intermediate-range ballistic missiles such as the Shaheen-III which will enable Pakistan to increase ranges of up to 4500 km. The Babur cruise missile range can also be extended to 1000 km or more. These land-based missiles are controlled by Army Strategic Forces Command of Pakistan Army.

[edit] Aerial systems

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is believed to have practiced "toss-bombing" in the 1980s and 1990s, a method of launching weapons from fighter-bombers which can also be used to deliver nuclear warheads.[citation needed] The PAF has two units (No. 16 Black Panthers and No. 26 Black Spiders) operating around 50 of the Chinese-built Nanchang A-5C, believed to be the preferred vehicle for delivery of nuclear weapons due to its long range. These units are major part of the Air Force Strategic Command, a command responsible for battling the weapons of mass destruction. The others are various variants of the Mirage-III and Mirage-V, of which around 156 are currently operated by the PAF. The PAF also operates some 63 F-16 fighters, the first 32 of which were delivered in the 1980s and believed by some to have been modified for nuclear weapons delivery.[citation needed]

It has also been reported that an air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) with a range of 350 km has been developed by Pakistan, designated Hatf 8 and named Ra'ad ALCM, which may theoretically be armed with a nuclear warhead. It was reported to have been test-fired by a Mirage III fighter and, according to one Western official, is believed to be capable of penetrating some air defence/missile defence systems.[85]

[edit] Naval systems

The Pakistan Navy was first publicly reported to be considering deployment of nuclear weapons on submarines in February 2001. Later in 2003 it was stated by Admiral Shahid Karimullah, then Chief of Naval Staff, that there were no plans for deploying nuclear weapons on submarines but if "forced to" they would be. In 2004, Pakistan Navy established the Naval Strategic Forces Command and made it responsible for countering and battling naval-based weapons of mass destruction. It is believed by most experts that Pakistan is developing a sea-based variant of the Hatf VII Babur, which is a nuclear-capable ground-launched cruise missile.[86] With a stockpile of plutonium, Pakistan would be able to produce a variety of miniature nuclear warheads which would allow it to nuclear-tip the C-802 and C-803 anti-ship missiles as well as being able to develop nuclear torpedoes, nuclear depth bombs and nuclear naval mines.[citation needed]"

wiki of "Pakistan and Weapons of Mass Destruction"

turcopolier

all

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaheen-II

pl

Abdul Mojeeb Tawqeer

This tread is baseless . being a Pakistani we never suppose to attack on Israel. Even though, we have not listen this from our parents to consider Israel as an enemy. Yes, one scenario can change the game if anyone will launch attack on us than we will retaliate with all means to fix the evil.

turcopolier

abdul mujeeb tawqeer

This post was about capability not intention. pl

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