Will Saber Rattling And Sanctions Work Against Iran? - National Security Experts - part 2

 
Will Saber Rattling And Sanctions Work Against Iran? - National Security Experts.

Comments

[J]

Sen. Jo-E Lieberman needs to be locked up in a rubber-room where he can't hurt anymore women and children than he already has. Lieberman really needs to be stripped of his Congressional robes and deported to his precious postage stamp, as it is obvious Lieberman values his postage stamp far more than he values our U.S..

Now back to watching Снежная королева (The Snow Queen)

[Lysander]

I'm heartened that your colleagues, Mr Metz and Mr Krieger, along with yourself, Colonel, do not share in the enthusiasm for war in Iran. However,

"It is time for our message... to become clearer: namely, that we will prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapons **CAPABILITY** -- by peaceful means if we possibly can, but with military force if we absolutely must,"

Capability? in other words, even if Iran upholds both letter and spirit of the NPT, Mr Lieberman would wish to attack it anyway. Sadly, he is a senator and you gentlemen are not.

Under the circumstances, Iran would be acting contrary to its most vital national interests to give up it's nuclear program. For the following reasons.

1) There is no guarantee of any kind Iran would not be attacked at some future date (I doubt it, but I wouldn't risk my life on it)

2) It is every nation's key interest never to allow foreign powers to have a veto on what technology they may or may not pursue.

3) The west is not prepared to offer a suitable "carrot" worthy of Iran's interest. And for the moment, do not seem to have a big enough "stick."

And if they did have such a stick, what better way to neutralize it than with a nuclear "capability."

[Patrick Lang]

Lysander

- You underestimate the power of public opinion in America.

- Senators have no executive power. pl

[Jackie]

Is Iran as afraid of us as Victor Mature was afraid of the one-eyed, toothless lion in Sodom and Gomorrah? Probably not.

As for Sen. Lieberman, the good folks in the nutmeg state seem to be sick of him.

[JustPlainDave]

The dominant question in my mind then is whether we in the west have sufficient understanding of the Iranian nomenklatura that we can successfully deter it over at least a transitional period. Can current intelligence practice (notably at the interface with political decision makers) match the internal dynamics of the Iranian power structure, particularly as it adjusts to new capabilities and greater political "throw weight"?

[mac]

I am not sure if the Pakistani military command would bear the risks that openly coming to Iran's aid would create. But that is an interesting scenario.

The elements within the 'regime' that favor a limited engagement with the US will prevail. Cooperation with the US is the Iranian expression of confidence in the process of engagement. But it is not that simple either.

There are forces within and outside of Iran that are actively working to prevent the emergence of a new modus vivendi and who show no sign of relenting. On the Iranian side, there maybe limited options in negotiating with these forces, but with the others, I think there is alot of room for a political settlement to their differences and sources of prior mistrust. The nuclear issue is the best example of this opportunity for establishing the new modus vivendi. We should expect the good Senator Joe to work against it.

[Adam L Silverman]

JustPlainDave: no.

[Jose]

The dominant question in my mind then is whether we in the west have sufficient understanding of the Iranian nomenklatura that we can successfully deter it over at least a transitional period. - JustPlainDave

IMHO, we just don't care to answer that question in an objective manner.

The Colonel is correct:

Can Iran be deterred? This remains an open question but the argument that Iran's revolution has entered a phase in which the country now answers to state interests and the particular interests of the nomenklatura has great appeal. If that hopeful view has merit, then the eventual Iranian nuclear force will be unusable and will merely serve to make Iran a major player in international geopolitics.

And that, friends and neighbors is what the Israelis really fear.

This is beginning to look a lot like Iraq and the "imminent danger of weapons of mass destruction."

Check out these links:

Part I

Part II

Iraq Part II