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17 September 2010


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There is little chance of political change happening on its own in this country. The key to reducing Israel's negative influence in the US may rest in the balance of power in the middle east. All that the US really need do is avoid a war with Iran. Everything else will solve itself. Iran will grow stronger, Hezbollah better armed, the Palestinians more numerous, the Saudis feeling they need to hedge by improving relations with Iran.

While we reflexively fear the above mentioned events, they are a blessing in disguise. The weaker Israel is relative to its neighbors, the less enamored the American public will be with it. The harder and costlier it becomes to maintain Israel's strategic supremacy, the harder it will be to conceal those costs from the public and the less the public will wish to pay for it. And even if the public is blind, it may simply become impossible to maintain the current balance of power. All we have to do is avoid a war with Iran. The Iranians, given another decade or two, will take care of the rest.

Israel's influence here is tremendous. But nothing lasts forever. AIPAC's power seems awesome, but it really only takes one "the emperor is naked" moment.

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