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03 August 2010

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par4

Russian aggression? Or are some nations coveting Russia's natural resources?

johnf

O/T

Israel's border wars.

Yesterday there was the shelling of Eilat. The BBC mentioned the Bedouin as having a possible connection with this. I wonder if this could have been in retaliation for the levelling of one of their villages in Israel a few days ago. If the Bedouin get involved in this - like the Tuareg in the Sahara - they could become formidable foes. I believe they're already involved in a lot of the smuggling into Gaza.

Today's incident on the Lebanese border has one or two strange aspects to it. Throughout the coverage it has been stated that Lebanese Army forces were alone involved in the fighting, not Hezbollah. But very early on Hezbollah stated as fact that a senior Israeli officer had been killed in the exchanges. It took several hours for the Israelis to admit this. How did Hezbollah know?

Patrick Lang

johnf

SIGINT pl

johnf

SIGINT pl

Thought so. Lots of messages being sent - and not all through the ether.

Matthew

...waiting for the State Department to criticize Lebanon for daring to respond to an Israeli violation of Lebanon's border. (How do you know when Israel's totally at fault? The USG condemns both sides, or calls an Israeli action "unwise.")

Bad day for the President. He can't even get the expired-President of the PA to agree to meaningless face-to-face negotiations. (Meaningless because they are designed to give the illusion that both sides will negotiate final status issues.)

Col: I fear that the President will conclude that what is needed is....a speech.

Fred

Perhaps we should add Russia to Nato as was suggested in the '50s. We've got most of the old Warsaw pact in there now anyway. That way they can each spend thier own money to defend themselves from each other.

confusedponderer

I read that the shellings of the recent days have been fired by Salafists in Gaza, not by Hamas. Hamas then stopped the firings. Israel retaliated against Hamas anyway. Arab, Shmarab ...

So Hamas is facing internal competition from the right that aims on provoking an Israeli reaction, and Israel with its itchy trigger finger is only too eager to please.

Comment on that from Mondoweiss:

Hamas didn't use to crack down on lingerie shops or women at shisha bars before. Imo, they are just trying to keep up with the new Salafists in town who will continue to grow in popularity as long as the U.S. and Israel continue to marginalize Hamas ...
Plausible, and if that assessment is correct it has implications: If the Israelis are in their right minds they prefer a territorial organization like Hamas to pan-Islamic types who have far more far reaching goals. But then, I don't get my hopes up with the likes of Liebermann and Netanyahu around.

David Habakkuk

If Hezbollah have access to this kind of SIGINT, what follows for the military balance between them and the Israelis?

Castellio

Interesting and good post. I appreciate it.

Jose

His wife, Zeyno Baran, was the author of a notable article in Newsweek in 2007 anticipating a military coup in her native country, Turkey -- seemingly with complacency, if not indeed enthusiasm.

We are we out of our F*CK*NG MINDS, does anybody contemplate where this could lead to?

The Generals might be under our influence, but what about the lower ranks?

Things have indeed change in The New Middle East...

SIGINT pl

LMAO

Fk Dahl

Are the Israelis still sloppy with their signal discipline? Yapping away on cell phones? Some of my old officers would have a fit and force us to drag a log over a bog.

BillWade

Just how much trouble could one tree be?

Patrick Lang

David Habakkuk

the IDF is generally poorly disciplined so this should not be a surprise. All you need is the right kind of receivers. Hizbullah should not have revealed that they knew this. pl

arbogast

Lest anyone forget, Georgia is an Israeli client par excellence.

"We are all Georgians now," John McCain.

I assure you that Israel can do no wrong as far as this Administration is concerned. Or any Administration for that matter.

We have made our bed.

And perhaps you say, "What you mean 'we' kemo sahbee?"

Well, it's a democracy. There is universal suffrage. It's "we" all right.

walrus

Peace is an invented human condition. Modern Nation states did most of the inventing. As Nation States weaken and fail, expect more, not less, war.

Examples: Georgia, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Iraq. World war One was caused by the Austro Hungarian inability to control Serb nationalism, aided and abetted by Germanys militarism in support of its own "nation building".

One can also argue that if the Governments of both Czechoslovakia and Poland, both only Twenty year old political constructs at the time, had been stronger, Hitler might have thought twice, and/or The German General Staff may have been more forthright in its opposition to war.

Don't Iraqis think they were better off under Saddam Hussien? Would Mexicans be better off under a military dictator who crushes the drug cartels? Would Pakistanis be better off under a similar Dictatorship?

War is enabled by real weakness and the inability of nations to control the impulses of sections of their populations. Democracy does not prevent war unless it can deliver compliance with international treaties.

As for war being averted for commercial reasons. Intertwined global economies were posited as reasons for continuing peace prior to First and Second World wars. Fat chance.

Lysander

"Hizbullah should not have revealed that they knew this. pl"

Probably very true. It could be that it was HA's way ifbtelling the IDF they are still a capable force and it's best for everybody nit to escalate. Or it might have something to do with Nasrallah's speech today where he promised to reveal evidence next week of Israel's complicity in the Hariri assassination 5 years ago.

But if it was simply that they couldn't resist the urge to brag about a kill, then HA needs to address it's own discipline issues.

Fred

Someone should remind the senator from Arizona that the only Georgia that should matter to the US is the one South of the Mason-Dixon line.

JMH

BillWade

The axe murder incident (Korean: 판문점 도끼 살인 사건) was the killing of two United States Army officers by North Korean soldiers on August 18, 1976, in the Joint Security Area (JSA) located in the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) which forms the de facto border between North and South Korea. The killings, credited to Kim Jong-il's power consolidation,[1] and the response three days later (Operation Paul Bunyan) heightened tensions between North and South Korea as well as their respective allies, the People's Republic of China and the United States.

Wiki

WP

More ethnic cleansing on the "Eastern Front" or just stealing more land for settlements. It is a long time since we have heard about human rights from Obama. Why do we think people like this should be our allies? There is no justice or righteousness in this and this is being paid for by US taxes, either directly or indirectly.

"In order to emphasize the point, Netanyahu has started to remove the remaining Palestinian population in the valley, a few thousand. Villages are being eradicated, starting this week with Farasiya, where all the dwellings and the water installations were destroyed. This is ethnic cleansing pure and simple, much like the similar operation now going on against the Bedouins in the Negev. "
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/articles/39/All-quiet-on-the-eastern-front.html

Fabius Maximus

Any thoughts on this op-ed at Constortium News, 3 August 2010:

MEMORANDUM FOR: The President

FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)

SUBJECT: War With Iran

"We write to alert you to the likelihood that Israel will attack Iran as early as this month. This would likely lead to a wider war. ..."

URL:
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2010/080310c.html

Sidney O. Smith III

In re: Georgia

Fred,

Thank you. In appreciation, are you familiar with James Brown’s lyrical poem, Dooley’s Junkyard Dawgs? I will leave you a video link below of James Brown singing this song. It’s worth your time to check it out.

While not exactly of the same genre as Kipling’s “The Peace of Dives”, James Brown’s reading of “Dooley’s Junkyard Dawgs” certainly is relevant, particularly since “socio-cultural research” is in vogue, apparently.

After watching the video, it is my contention that there really is no need for the academic methodology that gave us the book, Talley’s Corner. Based on my experience, be it what it is, I found that the methodology, as reflected by James Brown, greatly transcends that as evident in the sociological masterpiece, Talley’s corner.

The video is somewhat outdated -- it is from the 70’s -- but it is still relevant. You really need only to watch it to the point of Brown’s lyrical flourish, in iambic pentameter I believe, in which he sings the line, “The Junkyard Dawg aims to please.” About 90 or so seconds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YViDwVBpTn4

Now an admission, I am beginning to believe I was hardwired for such cultural analysis. That said, I don’t have anything to do with it. Actually, I disagree with many of its underlying assumptions, at least in this day and age.

In Re McCain.

I don’t think it helped McCain that he attended EHS on Quaker Lane in Alexandria. Nothing against EHS. It is a fantastic school, but McCain, like a very few in the military and the government, seem to suffer from the “Richie Rich” complex. After all what is the difference between the military industrial complex and the richie rich complex? Both are isolated from the civilian world, both think that can fleece the public and both think they are entitled to our money. And in the case of McCain and his crowd, they think that it is ok to send our children to fight and die for reasons that have nothing to do with our security.

Tragically, I am beginning to believe that our nation is going to organize itself into civilians vs. an imperial military industrial complex that completely owns the USG. I know what side I am on. (unfortunately I am in a minority in Georgia, at least right now.)

People with McCain’s personality probably should attend a public high school. Exposes them to the real life in the civilian world. Teaches humility (perhaps like West Point playing Oklahoma and an SEC schedule in football. Why not?)

Caveat: I am not talking about those who see military life as a vocational calling. But who does these days? Sam Damon is dead and gone. I have all but concluded the Pentagon stabbed Sam Damon in the back. And with the death of Sam Damon, tyranny at long last triumphed in the USA.

Roy G

The exposure of the Israeli spy network that compromised the Lebanese cell network is a game-changer. It sure makes Hizbullah look smart for maintaining its closed-circuit com network, doesn't it?

It's especially interesting given that the Hariri commission is leaning heavily on cell phone records to make its case--records that it appears the Israelis had the capability of 'spoofing.'

Patrick Lang

fabius

I signed it pl

Fabius Maximus

Thanks for the confirmation!

(Also, there were rumors -- picked up by Wikipedia -- that you had resigned from VIPS.)

Bought and Sold

Col. For your signing of the Memorandum,I have to say "Right On".

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