Sic Semper Tyrannis

"Socio-Cultural Research and Analysis..." Adam Silverman

Socio-Cultural Research and Analysis: A Response to Sale’s Questions Regarding Ethnographic Intelligence

Adam L. Silverman, PhD[1][1]

Mr. Sale finished his excellent post on the current state of American intelligence endeavors with a very important question: “Does our current infatuation with contractors and technology provide us with sufficient ethnographic intelligence on Afghanistan, an area which seems to me very similar in its makeup to Caesar’s Gaul?”  I would like to make this one question into two and deal with the portion that is near and dear to my experience over the past three years: does the US have sufficient ethnographic intelligence (on Afghanistan)?  While I have some pretty set views on the question of contractors and technology, those are, perhaps, columns for another day.  

Army suicide rates. NY Times

 "According to the Army, roughly 20 out of 100,000 soldiers have killed themselves, compared with a rate of roughly 19 out of 100,000 for the civilian population.

The report put a large part of the blame on commanders who either failed to recognize or disregarded high-risk behavior among their troops. “There are instances where a leader’s lack of soldier accountability resulted in suicide victims not being found until they had been dead for three or four weeks,” the report said.

In addition, the report said that the pace of constant deployments in two wars had forced a lowering of recruiting and retention standards. Many new recruits were granted waivers, it said, for behavior that would have kept them out of the service in earlier years. Of 80,403 waivers granted since 2004, the report found that 47,478 were granted to people with a history of drug or alcohol abuse, misdemeanor crime or “serious misconduct,” which it defined as felony.

At the same time, the report found that there was a decrease in soldiers forced to leave the Army for misconduct. “This has likely resulted in the retention of over 25,283 soldiers who would have otherwise been separated in previous years,” the report said.

General Chiarelli said that the majority of Army suicides — 60 percent — are committed during a soldier’s first enlistment, typically four years, and that the most dangerous year is the first. “We see more suicides in that first year than any other year,” General Chiarelli said."  NY Times

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Most of the young people whom I see these days do not seem very likely candidates for military service.  They have been raised to be self centered, undisciplined and addicted to immediate gratification.  Even the jocks among them tend to equate going to athletic practice with actual work.  Their parents do all the household chores or hire Central Americans to do them.

In the general atmosphere of self absorbed modern American culture I don't know how they get anyone to enlist in the ground combat forces.  Ah, I know.  They go out to the country where there still are people who think their children have a duty to society.

Britain is even more of  mystery to me.  How does a country that looks down on patriotism find people who will fight for "queen and country?"  And what does the British public really think of such men?

In the context of two wars, the inability of some recruits to adapt to a life in which one is expected to act responsibly on a schedule that does not reflect one's own wishes should not be surprising.

The desire of General Chiarelli to blame commanding officers for suicides of misfits that they have been sent is deplorable.  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/30/us/30suicide.html?src=mv

SB 1070 - People can't read.

 "“If the federal government wants to be in charge of illegal immigration and they want no help from the states, it then needs to do its job,” Brewer said. “Arizona would not be faced with this problem if the federal government honored its responsibilities.”

She added, “Illegal immigration is an ongoing crisis the State of Arizona did not create and the federal government has refused to fix.”"  CS Monitor

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I foolishly sent Dylan Ratigan an e-mail today protesting a wrong thing that he said on the air.  He said that the judge blocked the provision in the law that "allowed" the Arizona police and sheriffs to apprehend people for violating US immigration law.  That is not in the law.  What is in the law is a provision that "requires"  Arizona police to seek to know if someone is in the US and Arizona illegally if that seems likely.  

Arizona police have been enforcing federal immigration law for many years, but not uniformly. Some jurisdictions have chosen not to enforce US law.  SB 1070 sought to stop that.

I live in a city that has chosen to become a sanctuary for illegal aliens.  Alexandria, Virginia is ruled by a coalition of transplants, minorities and yellow dogs.  This produces a permanent Democratic majority in the city.  Does this have something to do with the city declaring itself to be a "sanctuary" for illegals?  Perhaps.  Perhaps the city government has some nobler motive than the hope of political advantage.

Does the Obama Administration and the democratic Party majority in Congress have some nobler motive in suing Arizona than a mere search for Latino votes?  Perhaps.  pl 

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Justice/2010/0729/SB1070-appeal-seeks-to-reinstate-all-parts-of-Arizona-law

Taliban talks shoot allies in the foot - John D. Moore

 "A key factor in the Taliban resurgence is the failure of the international community and Afghan government to gain ground in the political battle for hearts and minds. When the local elite and broader population see a willingness of the Karzai administration and the international community to open talks with the Taliban, the message conveyed is that the Taliban has political momentum and Afghanistan is on the verge of being abandoned yet again by the West. Thus they are less willing to support military and civilian efforts and are increasingly susceptible to insurgent pressure.

This does not mean efforts to divide and fracture the Taliban and associated insurgent and terrorist networks should not continue, as such efforts are also critical. The issue is that treating the Taliban as being a legitimate, monolithic actor -- even if only rhetorically -- transfers to the insurgency a political power they have never actually held."  JD Moore

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/taliban-talks-shoot-allies-in-the-foot/story-e6frg6ux-1225898181960

"Who owns General Petraeus?" Giraldi

 "Petraeus, who is regarded as an intellectual and even somewhat of an iconoclast, is no different.  His counterinsurgency strategy, far from a new development, is a replay of similar thinking during the Vietnam war and a repudiation of the Powell Doctrine, which asserted that wars should be in the national interest, with attainable objectives, fought using overwhelming force, and incorporating a clear exit strategy.  In short, Petraeus is the architect of the counterinsurgency long war combined with nation building strategy that has been embraced by both Presidents Bush and Obama.

Petraeus’ apparent close relationship with the neoconservatives and the Israel Lobby is a matter of concern, particularly if he does aspire to be president. "  Giraldi

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Yup.  The COIN manual is just old wine in a new bottle.  That has been said here many times.  It remains the truth.  Not only is COIN old wine but it is also sour wine.  It does not work except in exceptional circumstances.  Those circumstances did not exist in Iraq and they do not exist in Afghanistan.  So what and who is David Petraeus?  Giraldi provides a plausible answer in this article.  pl 

http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2010/07/28/who-owns-general-petraeus/

Arizona and the immigrants.

 "The law, adopted in April, was aimed at discouraging illegal immigrants from entering or remaining in the state.

It coincided with economic anxiety and followed a number of high-profile crimes attributed to illegal immigrants and smuggling, though federal data suggests crime is falling in Arizona, as it is nationally, despite a surge of immigration.

Seven lawsuits have been filed against the law, challenging its constitutionality and alleging it will lead to racial profiling."  NY Times

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Maricopa County (Phoenix) sheriffs and police arrested over 26,000 illegals last year.  They were turned over to ICE and were deported.  So far as I can see this ruling by Judge Bolton doesn't seem to affect the Arizona authorities ability to continue to do that.  SB 1070 "required" the police to question immigration status in certain situations.  The ruling does not prevent them from continuing to do what they have been doing for years.   Many other local Arizona jurisdictions (Tucson for instance) have been doing the same thing.  No? 

ICE will refuse to accept suspected violators of federal law from the local police?  I think that would probably be actionable.  pl 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/29/us/29arizona.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

How did he do it?

"Col. Lang, No, you are right about thumb drives and such. While they are indeed disabled on most networks, in theater they are very common because there are a large number of laptops and stand-alone computers that require a "sneaker-net." When I was there, we had to use a thumb-drive to load threat data into our helicopter's moving-map display, for instance. You're also right that these documents come from an operational and not an intelligence source. They look to me to be a dump from the theater SIGACTs database which is accessible by pretty much everyone in the theater. It's a mix of operational and low-level intel information - a kind of news ticker for the theater. As a result, a lot of the reports turn out to be wrong or incomplete. Therefore, the information contained in this should be taken with a huge grain of salt. We don't know which reports turned out to be accurate, which ones only provided part of the picture and which ones were flat-out wrong. Without additional sourcing it's impossible to look at this database and determine which category a particular report falls into. In the end this database will only be useful to those who subscribe to the Doug Feith method of analysis, a five step process: 1. Begin with the desired conclusion. 2. Troll whatever data is available and specifically look for and pull information that supports the desired conclusion. Ignore any contrary information. 3. Assemble the collected data and make it look like "analysis" supporting the conclusion from step 1. 4. Disseminate the "analysis" to useful idiots, particularly those who can affect policymaking. 5. Profit! =="

Andy

A Few Musings on Intelligence - Richard Sale

By Richard Sale, author of Clinton’s Secret Wars 

As the brilliant Washington Post piece made uncomfortably clear, the dilemmas of intelligence are not only as intractable as they have ever been, they have become contaminated in a very dubious and even sinister way by questions of marketing. 

I am speaking, of course, of the hiring of outside intelligence contractors whose field may be intelligence assessment but whose survival and financial success depend on finding backing among decision makers who are no way exempt from the dangerous fallacies associated with the formation of opinion. 

The Afghan Papers

 "...a daily diary of an American-led force often starved for resources and attention as it struggled against an insurgency that grew larger, better coordinated and more deadly each year.

The New York Times, the British newspaper The Guardian and the German magazine Der Spiegel were given access to the voluminous records several weeks ago on the condition that they not report on the material before Sunday.

The documents — some 92,000 reports spanning parts of two administrations from January 2004 through December 2009 — illustrate in mosaic detail why, after the United States has spent almost $300 billion on the war in Afghanistan, the Taliban are stronger than at any time since 2001."  NY Times

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Ho Hum.  I suppose that the media are going to ride this hobby horse until the wheels fall off.  This appears to be the "war diary" of some major operational headquarters (not intelligence) in the theater of war.  It appears to be a compilation of the daily message traffic that passed through the headquarters.  A record of all that traffic is kept so that it can be known what happened at a given time.

It is sequential and made up of operational reports from the field, unconfirmed raw intelligence information, analysed intelligence, etc.

I think that a military clerk type stole it by copying it electronically and then gave it to Wikileaks.  I think that clerk is in custody and an investigation is being conducted to determine what to do with him.  This is the UCMJ equivalent of a grand jury proceeding.  I expect that he will be tried by general court martial.

Everything I have seen so far from this collection of data is merely a repetition of things that have been reported in the news before.  The one possible exception is a report in which the Taliban are said to have used a MANPAD against a helicopter several years ago.  The press seems to like that tidbit.  Ho hum.  ISI supports some of the Taliban.  That is news?

pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/26/world/asia/26warlogs.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

"After Shirley Sherrod, we all need to slow down and listen" Washpost

 "Racial inequality is perpetuated less by individuals than by structural racism and implicit bias. Evidence of structural inequality is everywhere: in the grossly disproportionate numbers of young black men and women in prison; in the color of students shunted into remedial and special education tracks; in the stubborn segregation of our neighborhoods and schools; in the lack of recreational and academic opportunities for children of color in poor communities; in the inferior medical treatment that people of color receive; and in the still appallingly small numbers of men and women of color in law firms, corporations and government. It is evident, too, in the history of blatant discrimination against black farmers practiced by the Agricultural Department."  Washpost

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"We need a national dialog on race."  This is the unending mantra of Black people on television.  Is it true what they say or do they really want an audience for their diatribes and monologues on the need for greater economic concessions and groveling on the part of white men.  I was counseled here a few days ago by a fellow Southron that I should be careful of what I say because I can easily be thought a racist as the Ziocons consider me to be an anti-Semite.  Well,  I would have been as insistent in the 19th Century as I am now that people must be treated with dignity and respect.

Nevertheless, it makes me feel good that Andrew McWhorter admits that what Black people want is basically MORE.  It makes me sad to hear Jesse Jackson say that what was said about that basketball player makes him think of "Dred Scott."  The reason he gives for that is "my cultural background."  Fair enough. but he is as much a dinosaur as I am.

Hispanics don't whine.  They just work.  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/23/AR2010072304583.html

"..to lure unsuspecting boys." Washpost

 "His case underscores the difficulties that educators and parents face when they only suspect abuse but can't prove it, and how reluctant even the most suspicious and well-meaning people can be in coming forward with allegations. It shows how someone can for decades wear a mask of trusted role model while using that powerful position to lure unsuspecting boys.

Interviews with six of his victims or their families in Asia, Europe and the United States -- along with several others who think they or their children were being groomed as victims -- tell a story of a teacher who believed he was falling passionately in love with his students and the foreigners he brought into the country. They said he spent months infiltrating their lives, their families and their youth groups. He plied them with expensive gifts, trips, event tickets, attention and ultimately loads of alcohol.

When the boys were in a drunken stupor or asleep, Ricks would molest them, using a camcorder and camera to capture the graphic, secret sex acts, according to victims and law enforcement officials."  Washpost

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OK.  No girl victims?  Step up boys and girls and tell me why you think this creep is a "pedophile" and not a predatory homosexual.  His wife?  OK, a predatory bisexual.  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/24/AR2010072402605.html?hpid=topnews

Gay priests and Rome

 "The Catholic Church in Italy, still reeling from the clerical sexabuse scandal, lashed out Friday at gay priests who are leading a double life, urging them to come out of the closet and leave the priesthood.

The Diocese of Rome issued the strongly worded statement after the conservative Panorama newsweekly said in a cover story and accompanying video that it had interviewed three gay priests in Rome and accompanied them to gay clubs and bars and to sexual encounters with strangers, including one in achurch building.

One of the priests, a Frenchman identified only as Paul, celebrated Mass in the morning before driving the two escorts he had hired to attend a party the night before to the airport, Panorama said."  Yahoonews

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I hasten to say that I have known many dedicated, apparently chaste and believing clergy.  On the other hand I have known some who were lazy, hypocritical and driven by personal ambition.

Atheists should not comment here on matters of theology.  This is not about that.

The Catholic Church teaches that homosexual behavior is contrary to the natural law.  So long as it teaches that, then it must enforce that position using the ecclesiastical courts as vehicles.  the Catholic Church is in grave danger of schism over a number of issues, not the least of which is the despicable way in which the hierarchy protected sex offenders for many years at the expense of the faithful.

You cannot be a Roman Catholic priest and lead an unrepentant life of what the Church says is sin.  If that kind of behavior is tolerated, then the Church is doomed.  pl 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100723/ap_on_re_eu/eu_italy_gay_priests

More Clapper

http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2010/06/10/the-value-of-advice-and-consent-clapper-nomination/

pl

Clapper redeemed.

Someone I trust has rebuked me for saying that Clapper is/was a REMF and/or a "slick shirt."  Clapper commanded an Air Force unit that flew C-47s over Laos in 1970 and 1971 collecting enemy signals or some such thing.  he evidently flew a lot as an unrated crew member and so has wings.  Mea Culpa.  I wish he had come to visit me in several places.  We would have shown him a good time.

I hope he is a good DNI and that the coffee never got cold in those C-47s.  pl 

Scotland vs. the US(?) Senate?

Well, that's it, we invade Scotland.   People in New Jersey aren't sure where Scotland is anyway...  Bomb, bomb, bomb the glen...  McCain can get on board for this.  You mean Scotland has a government?  Like New York or Israel?  Why?  Arrest them!  Send them to Riker's Island.  Besides, this is about that Gibson bastid.  The '45?  We had left by then.

 pl

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704421304575383391106279322.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxRj-ejoJaM&feature=related

"A Pack of Lies..." Gitaldi

 "...the ongoing National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran, which has been languishing for more than two years, caught between the Bush and Obama Administrations’ desire to have a "strong" document justifying the use of force and the insistence of intelligence analysts that the information pass the smell test and not lead to something similar to the 2002 NIE on Iraq, which was a pack of lies."  Giraldi

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Jim Clapper said one of several true things in his testimony on Tuesday.  He said that the Iraq NIE of 2002 was a disgrace.  That was certainly true.  He also said that the outcome in that document was not "politicized."  Hah!  Anyone who wants to know more about that process should see my article "Drinking the Koolaid" in MEP, Summer, 2004.  pl 

http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2010/07/21/the-national-security-product/

Where has DNI procurement been going?

Make of this what you will.  pl 

Download Tuesday GeneralSession 1130 Everett

"... I won't be a 'hood ornament'" - Clapper

I watched this hearing for a while.  I thought that Clapper did a remarkably good job in answering questions clearly and succinctly.  He didn't read a long winded opening statement and came to the hearing  prepared to do business.  There were a few odd notes in the music.  "My station in life..."  What did that mean?

His statement to the committee that he believes he can use the existing statutory powers of the DNI more effectively than his predecessors was interesting to say the least.  Asked if he "had the horsepower" to win a contest of authority with the director of the CIA, he said "I do."

It sounds like I misjudged this situation.  I thought Clapper was going to roll over and play dead in this job.  Wrong.

He said that the president has given him direct assurance of his support and that this was a condition of his acceptance of the nomination.  That sets the stage for a real struggle over control of the community.

First there will be a period of "making nice."  Then there will be the "a-- kicking contest."  Clapper is a tough guy.  If Obama doesn't walk away from him, he probably will win.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/20/AR2010072004076.html

"Clinton defends US strategy in Afghanistan" BBC

 "...she insisted that the strategy was the right one, saying: "I don't see an alternative. I think we are on the right track and I think we have to persevere and I think we can do that."

Few Western officials still speak with such conviction about the possibility that success is still attainable.

Pessimism has mostly taken over and Afghanistan is described by some as being in a state of free fall, with the Taliban biding their time until US and ISAF troops start leaving.

Mrs Clinton did acknowledge the strategy was not easy one and said the conference was a good opportunity to take stock and get reports from all those involved on the progress made."  BBC

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FWIW I have been and continue to be a supporter of Hillary Clinton but she is "beating a dead horse" with this one.  I understand that as a cabinet officer she has no choice but to support administration policy, but the odds against success with the COIN nation building strategy in Afghanistan are so bad that that she is setting herself up to be one of those blamed for a costly and debilitating failure there.

Could COIN nation building work in Afghanistan? Certainly, had we world and time enough.  We do not.  Money and patience are not unlimited and we are heading for the door.  We just haven't admitted it yet.

To repeat the obvious, Afghanistan is not Iraq.  It is harder as a task.  We did not do COIN in Iraq.  As FB Ali says we merely bought off some of the rebel leaders and used their men against those who were our real adversaries.  Are we going to do that again?  To make that the basis of policy will require the kind of long term sub-rosa participation in local politics that is inevitable in Iraq.  Has anyone really thought about that?  pl 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-10692971

The Priest/Arkin Article

Good luck, Jimmy.

There are several interesting things about this WP story: 

- The MSM as is their custom either does not understand the story or is "dumbing it down" in the belief that complex thoughts are beyond the capabilities of the public. The story is being headlined as being about the Intelligence community.  It really is much more than that.  The story deals with whole complex web of homeland security agencies, things like the National Counter Terrorism Center, federal police forces, the intelligence world and the ever increasing number of consultant companies that service those activities and to some extent do their hardest work, the intellectual "heavy lifting "  that is best done by the "graybeards" who have a lifetime's experience and reputations for high achievement.  I know that will sound self-serving.  People outside this world will ask why the government should pay again for the expertise of the real experts.  Simple.  If the government does not, then it can do without.

- In the world under discussion, bigger is not better unless you are talking about the number of policemen.  At the end of the 1st Gulf War, DIA was thought by many to be a highly effective combat support organization.  Norman Schwartzkopf didn't think so?  Well Fat Norman couldn't have found his a-- with both hands if DIA had not devoted 2,000 odd of its people to exclusive support of FN's army in the desert.  DIA then had 6,000 people worldwide.  We were not undermanned.   According to Dana Priest's story DIA now has 16,000 people and is still one of the smaller "players" in the national security world.  What on earth are all those people doing?  The answer she provides is that they are mainly getting in each other's way.   I think that is true.  I have the chance occasionally to see some heavy duty thinking done in war games, panel discussions, etc.  It is noticeable that the more skilled are the people organizing such meetings the more they tend to isolate small groups of the highly capable to do the serious thinking.  More is not better, bigger is not better. Gigantism is inherently bad.

- Why has this catastrophic growth occurred?  There are probably several reasons, most of them embedded in our shared culture.  We like big.  There is an assumption in American culture that "bigger and more" must be better.  We tend to assume that we can solve problems by throwing money and manpower at them.  Why?  We are addicted to the leveling idea.  My insistence that smaller is better is typically seen as "elitist" because it implies that all people are not created equal and that some people do much better work than others, often being capable of the intuitive leaps called "intuition" by the "elitists" and "guessing" by the levelers.  The levelers are in charge.  Like "Poppy" Bush they are usually not good at "the vision thing."  Their reaction to the need to do serious thinking about phenomena that do not have linear outcomes from present events is often to divide the "action" up into smaller and smaller pieces that do not expect much insight from individuals.  Then these mental tessarae are submitted to the attention of layer upon layer of committees and inter-agency "coordination."  What results is often not useful, but the process is manpower and contract rich.

- A corollary of having "process people" in charge is the proliferation of acronym heavy programs, SAPs, endless "experimentation" by groups like JFCOM and a general inability to do anything with less that 50 people and ten million dollars (petty change).

What is described in this article by Priest and Arkin is the confluence of several Washington government/consultant firm/think tank and academic "industries."  They are the Homeland Security Industry, the Intelligence Industry, the Counter Terrorism Industry, the Cyber-Security Industry, etc.  there are other growing government industries, Climate 
control, etc.

Forget about what Eisenhower said.  Worry about this.  pl

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-10681861

"US military build-up in Kandahar will bolster Taliban, warns security monitor" Guardian

 "... the Anso report also reflected the grave doubts held by most Afghan experts that Nato's concentration of force in southern Afghanistan can possibly work.

It said the effort to dislodge the Taliban from Marjah, a former Taliban stronghold in Helmand, had failed to deliver security to local people, allow refugees to return to their homes or given credibility to the local government.

It was sceptical that the next stage of the operation, in and around Kandahar, would be any better. It said the operation was "very unlikely to be the 'breaking point' of the Taliban".

"It seems more likely to go the way of Operation Moshtarak, in Helmand, with lots of public ballyhoo around the actions of the IMF while the Afghan 'partners' discreetly pursue their own, often countervailing, agendas."

It added that the military buildup in Kandahar, which will see fighting take place in districts surrounding the city in the autumn, "will cause a significant rise in support for the armed opposition in Kandahar and, with that, make eventual Taliban ascendency feasible"."  Guardian

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Amusing, in a sick kind of way.  These people are even more "defeatist" than I.  So, as I thought, the "marjah" thing is a flop.  The COIN guys should start preparing for a collapse of their popularity.  There will be other fads.  Surely, they can find one before the mortgage is foreclosed.  

The business at the end about militias is also funny.  Lyautey said something like "On ne fait pas des empires avec les vierges."  Well, we are not good at empires, but...  pl 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/18/kandahar-us-military-taliban-afghanistan

A New "Surge" in Iraq

 "The bombings were the deadliest in a series of attacks across Iraq Sunday aimed at the Sons of Iraq, Sunni groups also known as Awakening Councils that work with government forces to fight al-Qaida in Iraq.

The attacks highlighted the stiff challenges the country faces as the U.S. scales back its forces in Iraq, leaving their Iraqi counterparts in charge of security.

The first attack Sunday morning — the worst against Iraq's security forces this year — killed at least 45 people and wounded more than 40. It occurred at a checkpoint near a military base where the Awakening Council members had lined up to collect their paychecks in the mostly Sunni district of Radwaniya southwest of Baghdad.

"There were more than 150 people sitting on the ground when the explosion took place. I ran, thinking that I was a dead man," said Uday Khamis, 24, who was sitting outside the Mahmoudiyah hospital where many of the wounded were taken. His left hand was bandaged and his clothes were stained with blood."  Yahoonews

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The frequency of suicide bombing is increasing in Iraq.  The victims are variously Shia and Sunni Arabs with Kurds included for variety.  As I keep saying, this phenomenon is reflective of our failure to create the "new Iraq' that was the goal of the neocon/Bush Administration.  Our successful use of the SOI against AQI tamped down the factional/ethnic/sectarian fighting but the truth is revealed in the failure of the present government to coalesce in a functioning administration.  

Many of you were skeptical when I insisted that we would leave Iraq sooner rather than later.  WE ARE LEAVING!  We will be completely out of the country in a couple of years.  NO BASES!  There will be none.  We probably should try to keep a piece of the airbase at Balad or Talil, but I doubt if that will be possible politically either in the USA or in Iraq.  We might still have some trainers in the country after 2012 but I doubt it.

In the context of our departure we should expect to see growing unrest in Iraq that will degenerate into de facto partition of the country.  There will be a Shia Arab dominated government in Baghdad.  The Kurds will continue to "grow" an autonomy that is close to independence.  The Sunni Arabs will carry on a desultory struggle with the central government that will make Anbar, Diyala, Saladin and other heavily Sunni Arab provinces virtual "no go" areas for the central government.  pl

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100718/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq

"Clinton aims to refine goals of Afghan war" Yahoonews

 "Clinton landed in Islamabad where she will underscore the need for Afghan-Pakistani cooperation in winning the war but also announce plans to beef up U.S. development assistance to Pakistan, which is rife with anti-American sentiment.

In talks with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani on Sunday and military and civilian officials on Monday, Clinton is seeking to convince Pakistanis the U.S. is committed to the country's long-term development needs and not just short-term security gains.

This, officials hope, will lead to greater Pakistani cooperation on key U.S. policy goals, particularly combatting Pakistan-based militants accused of conspiring to attack the United States, including the failed Times Square bombing, and stepping up action against extremists along the Afghan border.

"To get there we need to change the core of the relationship with Pakistan," said Richard Holbrooke, the Obama administration's special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan."  Yahoonews

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So, the Pakistani leopard is going to lose its spots and change its ways?  It is going to give up its goal of dominating events in Afghanistan through manipulation of proxies?  Are Holbrooke and Clinton serious about this?  Do they really think they can tinker with history and long term national policy goals?  This is the kind of thing that sounds good at cocktail and dinner parties in Manhattan and Georgetown but does not reflect reality.  pl 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100718/ap_on_re_us/clinton_asia

Bibi Unchained

This Israeli video tape from 2001 has surfaced.  It shows Natanyahu in a segment of interview in which he is apparently unaware that he is being recorded.

On the tape he speaks contemptuously of the United States and explains that he has no intention of making any kind of fair peace with the Palestinians.  He says (paraphrasing) that they must be beaten into submission.

Let me know if you see this mentioned in the main street media.  pl 

 http://www.tabletmag.com/scroll/39692/fibi-netanyahu/

The New Marriage Law in Israel

 "...the law shows how blissfully unaware our lawmakers and politicians are of what goes on outside their narrow fishpond, and that they have no clue about the effect of their actions on the wider world. Much of this is based on the anachronistic view that Israel should be impervious to the views of the gentiles and do whatever it thinks is right. 

Now it turns out that Israel’s lawmakers are also completely blind and deaf to what Jews around the world (and a large proportion of Jews in Israel) feel, think and believe. Approximately 85 percent of world Jewry is not Orthodox. For reasons of political expediency and in order to maintain peace and quiet in the coalition, the Knesset is about to pass a law that offends the vast majority of world Jewry.

Of course, one can argue, that the feelings and beliefs of Jews who are not Israeli citizens need not to be taken into account by Israel’s lawmakers, who are, after all, elected by Israeli citizens. While this argument is correct in a dry, legalist way, it is phenomenally shortsighted."  Haaretz

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Hmm...  This an interesting insight into why Israel's political establishment does such foolish, short sighted things.  They are living in the past, a past in which Americans (including Jewish Americans) were more biddable than they are now.

My dentist asked me yesterday why Israel attacked USS Liberty.  He said that it was clear what had happened but the motive seemed hard to fathom.  He is a gentile and I have known him since he graduated from dental school.  Before that his father worked on my teeth.  I told him that I did not know the answer to that question but the theory that the attack was intended to mask ongoing Israeli maneuvers in the war against Egypt seemed to be more likely than most.  I doubt if anyone in Israel knows or cares that Virginia dentists are thinking about such things.  Perhaps they should be concerned.

It is clear to me that the Israeli political class is acting in a careless, hyper-aggressive way that expresses the concept of hubris.  This goes before a fall.  pl 

http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/strenger-than-fiction/strenger-than-fiction-is-israel-alienating-the-jews-of-the-world-1.301515

The NAACP and the Tea Parties

 IMO the conflict between the two groups is not really about race and racism.  It is about attitude toward the federal government.

The NAACP is one of the most pro-government lobbies in Washington.  It has relied throughout its history on the interventions of the federal courts and liberal administrations to achieve its ambitions for the advancement of African-Americans.  It has no other real methodology.  For that reason the group's most important organ is its legal apparatus.  The NAACP loves the federal government.

The Tea Parties are the exact mirror image of the NAACP.  They have no central bureaucracy.  They do not pass resolutions that demand "party" unity in expression.  The main theme of the Tea Parties is the usurpation of function and power by the federal government.  They believe that from the beginning of the Republic the central government has sought to grow larger and larger, expanding its revenue base and seeking to push the state government to the ditch.  The Tea Parties would be deeply appreciative of the Virginia and Kentucky Resolutions if they knew of them. Nullification is a theme that waits in their future.

The NAACP fears and hates the Tea Party attitude.  Are some of the signs at Tea Party functions racist.  Yes, they are but that is not the main thing in this irreconcilable quarrel.  pl

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39807.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky_Resolutions

Village Defense Co(r)ps

 ""The size, salary and the period for which it will be required will be prepared by the interior ministry," said Hamid Elmi, a spokesman for Karzai. "They (LPFs) will be formed in areas where there is insecurity."

Elmi said the government did not plan to provide arms for the force, whose members would rely on their personal weapons. Many Afghans, particularly in rural areas, keep weapons of some sort hidden within reach, a legacy of decades of conflict.

Accountable to the interior ministry, the LPF will be tasked with helping the Afghan National Police (ANP) force with the protection of their respective areas from attacks by the insurgents, he said."  Reuters

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If you want to call them police, fine.  "A rose by any other name..."  Karzai undoubtedly believes that by making these village guards auxiliary police, giving vetting authority to the police, control of pay to the interior ministry and not arming them further he has enough control to be comfortable.  Oh, yes, he also wants them not to be trained for "offensive combat."

Well, I have some experience of this kind of effort and I doubt if this will work the way he thinks it will.  

1 - When are ambushes offensive and when are they defensive?

2 - Are mortars offensive or defensive weapons?

3 - Are fortifications around a village defensive in nature if they enable the villagers to defend themselves against any sort of enemy?

4 - If history is an indicator of the future the Interior Ministry people will pad the rolls to pocket the extra pay.  Some of it they will steal anyway.

5 - The Interior Ministry will attempt to "vett" out prospective member who they think of as "troublemakers."  Some of these will be the natural leaders of the village.

6 - Weapons?  That will happen,  A miracle!

Problems?  Hey, if this were not difficult it would be disappointing for those who are going to do it. 

Will this change the final outcome?  It might affect the final balance of power in the country.   pl

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100715/wl_nm/us_afghanistan_force_1

"9 States Stand in Support of Arizona Immigration Law" Fox news

 "The Republican gubernatorial candidate said Wednesday that Michigan is the lead state backing Arizona in federal court. Michigan is joined by Alabama, Florida, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas and Virginia, as well as the Northern Mariana Islands."  Foxnews

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The Northern Marianas? OK.  Why not?  They are Americans.  How many more?  
What is this?  The Nullification Crisis?  Holder is what?  Grand Inquisitor?   pl 

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/07/14/brief-states-backs-arizona-immigration-law/

FARA and the Emergency Committee for Israel.

 I have a simple question for the people who have launched this latest "emergency" committee: Have you registered as foreign agents, under the Foreign Agents Registration Act? This seems to be one of the most cut and dried cases of mandatory registration. They are openly advertising that they are serving as a lobby for Israel. And, by the way, as a string of law suits against AIPAC, and an FEC ruling against ADL make clear, foreign agents, whether individuals or organizations, cannot interfere, in any way, in U.S. electoral affairs. So, we have a very strong legal case here, of illegal Israeli interference, using people who ought to be forced to register as Israeli agents. These guys have really overplayed their hands, vastly missing the sea change in attitude that had gripped the American people, and even some of our would-be patriotic institutions. The significance of the Walt-Mearsheimer book, which hit the NYT best seller list, after being initially relegated to publication as an article in the London Review of Books, is just indicative of this change. This shift in attitude might, for the first time, mean that these Ziocons have to actually obey the law, for a change. Is there a good legal mind--attorney or Congressional staffer, or just good activist--who would take this issue up directly with the Justice Department and the State Department?  Harper

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1- N.B., the National Review.  I am not "Harper" and he is not I.  Don't do it again.  You did not answer an e-mail about a prior error of that kind.  Next time...

2-"The act requires people and organizations that are under foreign control ("agents of a foreign principal") to register with theDepartment of Justice when acting on behalf of foreign interests. This law defines the agent of a foreign principal as someone who:

1. Engages in political activities for or in the interests of a foreign principal;
2. Acts in a public relations capacity for a foreign principal;
3. Solicits or dispenses any thing of value within the United States for a foreign principal;
4. Represents the interests of a foreign principal before any agency or official of the U.S. government."

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Agents_Registration_Act

3- It seems that this new group, the "Emergency Committee for Israel" is the agent of Israel in the US.  It seeks to influence US policy on behalf of that particular country.  I know something about the FARA law (see my CV) and the purpose of the ECFI seems to completely fit the description of the requirement for registration.  Come on someone!  Sue them!  pl 

A Death Rattle for the Lobby? - Cieran

This is not a campaign tactic: it's a death rattle for the ziocon movement, and the desperation shows even in the nomenclature (e.g., "emergency").

The whole "there's no daylight between the U.S. and Israel" apparatus passed its sell-by date a few years ago, and the stridency of those who are desperately trying to revive it is becoming increasingly obvious, as the whole relationship increasingly stinks up the place.

So here's a fun experiment you can try at home to gauge the health of that relationship... take a clean install of a web browser (e.g., download Firefox) and set Google's search preferences to permit query help, i.e., to complete your searches for you using algorithms that (among other things) consider how popular certain search targets are of late.

And then type "foreign aid to" and see what Google offers up as its top ten search targets. Here's a hint: three of them are queries about U.S. foreign aid to Israel, and no other country shows up more than once in that list of popular searches. Hmmmm....

Now does anybody think that legions of Google users are searching for this information so they can write their congress-people to demand MORE foreign aid? Not too likely... Congress may be oblivious to what the American public is thinking (what else is new?), but even the most devout Evangelicals I know are talking less about Israel and more about taxpayer-funded Wall Street bank bailouts and the evil ways of Goldman Sachs.

So there may be wars and pain and suffering in our futures, but the special relationship between the U.S. and Israel is no longer a going concern. That relationship started stinking pretty bad during Israel's ill-considered incursions in Gaza, and the media's slamming the lid shut on coverage of the Mari Marvara incident only made the whole mess fester to the point where the Likudnik-inflicted wound will never heal.

And that's why the message here is so strident: because against the constant din of a bad economy and an increasing loathing against more war, the only thing left for Bauer and Kristol to do is to scream loud and long. And Americans love a winner, not a screamer.

All Mr. Sestak has to do is to respond to these insults with "that's ADMIRAL Sestak to you!" to remind the voters who puts America first, and who doesn't.

The citizens are plenty smart enough to take it from there.  Cieran

AIPAC/Likudniks versus Sestak Rd. 1

"Israel, a wealthy Middle Eastern nation with a powerful army and nuclear weapons, has long been under attack from Barack Obama, who hates them for their freedom. Obama hates Israel so much that he would like to encourage them to make the concessions necessary for their survival as a democratic state, and he expresses his hatred by negotiating with their leaders and constantly affirming his support for them. Thankfully, Hero of Democracy Bill Kristol is here to save Israel, along with some donors whose names will never be disclosed, because of freedom. Kristol is part of a new group called "The Emergency Committee for Israel," and they will save Israel from Obama by airing attack ads explicitly linking Democrats to terrorists, because it is still the years 2002 and 2004."  Salon

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Admital Joe Sestak should feel complimented.  The Ziocons are going after him with big money and a media blitz while the MSM types like Joe Scarborough and the lovely Mika look on wondering how far to go in submitting and how quickly.

Why is this new outfit not  a candidate for registration under FARA?   It advocates partucular American foreign policy positions on behalf of  foreign country and seeks to directly pressure legislators to adopt positions favorable to that foreign power.  Ah, I know the answer...  The Ziocons have the muscle in the Obama Administration to block that at Justice.  In any event the Justice Department is too busy suing Arizona to focus on that.  

Terry McCauliffe voiced a moment of doubt this morning on MJ about the political wisdom of ads like the one floated by this group aginst Sestak, but then, you could see the latent fear in his eyes as he mumbled to a halt.

The level of fury and angst in "defense" of Israel is risng steadily in the media. The clock is ticking.  In November 2002 I told an audience in Lexington, Virginia that the train had already left the station headed for Iraq.  This train is waiting for the conductor to board the passengers.  pl 

http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2010/07/12/emergency_committee_israel_kristol

The Afghan Tunnel - FB Ali

 The United States entered the Afghanistan tunnel in 2001 and, nine years later, is still stuck in there. In this conceptual tunnel, the generals always perceive the light of victory at its end, while the political leaders want to get out but are hemmed in by its walls. The tunnel also hides the war from the people, most of whom are hardly aware that it is going on, or where it is taking them. 

Recently, considerable excitement accompanied the assumption of the Afghanistan command by the Wizard of COIN. The (entertainment) media lavished breathless praise upon the trinket-laden general, while the commentariat pontificated gravely on the prospect that he would repeat his Iraq success through his magic formula. Unfortunately, the only real wizardry possessed by the general (and his acolytes) is in promoting the legends surrounding him, such as his ‘invention’ of COIN, and how its application in Iraq secured victory there. The fact is, this ‘magic’ formula had nothing to do with the reduction of the insurgency in Iraq. 

National Journal Blog - 12 July 2010

 http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/07/does-007-have-a-future.php#1603239

Open Thread - 12 July, 2010

 

Bibi on FNS, (Gillespie on MTP)

 I listened the Bibi/Wallace interview today.  Natanyahu said a couple of odd things:

1- He said that he is going to make peace with the PA and Abbas.  When asked how he will do that without the participation of Hamas, he bristled at the thought and insisted that Israel will do exactly that and then eliminate (paraphrasing) Hamas in Gaza to finish the job.    This seems to relate to his delusional idea that Gazans can be reprogrammed politically by Israeli pressure.  This is a sort of "lab-rat" notion.  After having been involved with these people for so long they still know nothing about them.

2- He also said at one point that the Taliban sent Al-Qa'ida to attack New York and Washington.  That's a new one.

On a new subject Ed Gillespie, the failed former GOP head in Virginia was on Meet the Press.  He said at one point that the MChrystal/Petraeus "surge" methods worked in Iraq and they will work in Afghanistan if we keep at it long enough.  Remarkable.  Once again, what worked temporarily in Iraq was not COIN.  pl 

The senators from Tel Aviv.

 "Graham was even blunter. 

“The Congress has Israel’s back,” he said, “and never misunderstand that. Whatever relationship problems we have had in the past, it has never seeped over into Congress. The Congress has been united in protection of one of our best allies in the world, the State of Israel.” "  JPOST

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Considering the amount of Obama Administration groveling this week, this looks like war to me.   It seems like a matter of timing.  In the "crunch" there will be no choice but to virtually destroy Iran.   pl 

http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=180695

IDF Targeting in Lebanon

 "IDF officers revealed that the air force today has thousands of designated targets it can bomb if war were to break out.

Some of them, like those that appear on the maps of the southern Lebanese village of el-Khiam that were declassified on Wednesday, are of arms caches, command-and-control centers and rocket launchers; others are likely longrange rockets, like the highly accurate M600 or Scuds, which Syria recently transferred to Lebanon.

In the four years that have passed since the Second Lebanon War, both the IDF and Hizbullah have been busy studying their mistakes and implementing the necessary lessons. The IDF, for example, significantly increased training regimens, developed and procured active-protection systems for tanks and armored personnel carriers and is investing in building new urban warfare training centers due to an understanding that the next conflict would be fought in the narrow streets of southern Lebanese villages.

Hizbullah, senior officers said this week, mostly consists of a lot more of the same encountered in 2006, except today its command posts, rocket launchers and guerrilla forces are deployed inside villages and not in the notorious “nature reserves” it had created in the forests of southern Lebanon before 2006.'  JPOST

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The adversaries have used the last four years to prepare for an inevitable renewal of the struggle.  Hizbullah is dug in deeper, has more weaponry and has had a long time to prepare the ground on which it will receive the Israeli attack.  They now have a larger missile force with longer ranges.

The IAF has studied the position closely preparing target data for many targets. These targets will have to be attacked with fixed wing aircraft, armed helicopters and artillery.  Many targets will be disabled but the air attacks will have to be made against air defense fire, something the IAF has not experienced.  Attacks by fire whether aerial or ground fire will not sufficiently destroy the Hizbullah defenses to achieve desired results.  The defenses will have to attacked on the ground in all these fortified villages.

In '06 Israel attacked both the Hizbullah defenses in the south and Lebanese economic and infrastructure targets all over the country in the perennial Israeli hope and belief that Arab will to resist is fragile and can be broken.  It seems that they still believe that to be true and so, it is likely that a "strategic" air campaign will be conducted once again.

Outcome?  Unknown.  My crystal ball is cloudy today.  pl 

http://www.jpost.com/Features/FrontLines/Article.aspx?id=180890

"The Palestinian 'Reconciliation' Maze - Khalil Shikaki

Download 2010-14 USMEPolicy Brief

Yet More National Journal

 http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/07/what-is-netanyahus-strategy.php#1602214

Morning Joe and Mika B.

 MSNBC needs to get rid of Mika Brezsinski.   She is a bullying, self righteous scold who reminds of the stereotypical "soccer mom."  Her nasty sniping at guests on the show is usually petty and reminiscent of the way your dear old mom would talk to you at the dining room table.  

The network should replace her with an intelligent woman who can hold her own in the kind of circles that "Morning Joe" attracts.  I suggest Savannah Guthrie.

BTW, the program is far too "New York."  pl 

Gates' gag rule.

Those who wish to talk to the media will do so privately.  pl 

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/107781-gates-defends-new-pentagon-media-rules

Octavia Nasr and the Lobby

 CNN fired the inoffensive Nasr because she foolishly sent out one of the idiotically simplistic messages that "Twitter" was designed to propagate.  Anyone who uses that platform is asking for some incident like this.  She is a Lebanese Christian.  In Lebanon Hizbullah is a major player in politics as well as a terrorist organization.  In that context it is not so surprising that she would describe Fadlallah as a "giant."  In the very small milieu of Lebanese politics he was a giant.  The hasbara got her. Several of them pointed out her tweet.  The lobby bitched to CNN and they fired her as part of the general decline and inevitable eventual death of the network. This dismissal is just another symptom of disintegration and evolution into a wholly "owned" subsidiary of AIPAC/Israel, but then, why should CNN be different from the rest of the MSM.

We should note that Nasr did not say anything negative about Israel.  We are way past the issue of "defamation" now.  What we see in this incident is the ambition to control the content of people's minds.  pl

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2010/07/the-policing-of-the-discourse.html

http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2010/07/08/media

Democratic Party Suicide?

The federal suit seeks a court injunction to keep the law from taking effect July 29. It wants to prevent Arizona from enforcing the law and asks the court to find certain sections of the legislation null and void. Senior Justice Department officials said they expect a federal judge to take up the motion for an injunction as early as next week.

The legislation makes it a state crime to be in the country illegally. It states that an officer engaged in a lawful stop, detention or arrest shall, when practicable, ask about a person's legal status when reasonable suspicion exists that the person is in the U.S. illegally.  Arizona Republic

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A legal test of this law is justified, but hysteria over it is not.

70% of the country approve of this law.  A lot of the people in that number are thought to be frequent voters.  In other words, they are white.

Unemployment across the country is in the vicinity of 9.5%  The true unemployment percentage is undoubtedly higher than that.  It does not seem likely that there will be a great improvement before November.

There is a profound unhappiness over; foreclosure rates, low house values, the size of the national debt and the growth of the federal government budget deficit.

The war in Afghanistan is increasingly unpopular and the size of the military budget has become an economic issue.

So, in this environment, the Obama Administration chooses to sue the State of Arizona over this law, thus handing the Republican Party a major issue.  By November nothing will have been settled in this lawsuit.  The case will either be pending action or be on appeal.

Are the Democrats tired of being the majority in Congress?  Based on all of this I have reached a tentative conclusion that the Republicans will control at least one house in the next Congress.  pl 

 http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/07/07/20100707arizona-immigration-law-federal-lawsuit.html#ixzz0t03V4xqk

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/07/07/20100707arizona-immigration-law-federal-lawsuit.html

More N J blog + Homage to Dana Milbank

"A blue-and-white Israeli flag hung from Blair House. Across Pennsylvania Avenue, the Stars and Stripes was in its usual place atop the White House. But to capture the real significance of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's visit with President Obama, White House officials might have instead flown the white flag of surrender."  Milbank

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/06/AR2010070604005.html

http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/07/what-is-netanyahus-strategy.php

National Journal Blog - 6 July 2010

http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/07/what-is-netanyahus-strategy.php#1601307

A few Remarks on Israel and Hamas - Richard Sale

 Pat Lang’s remarks on Israelis and Hamas were dead on target. In 2002, then Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon immediately vowed to fight "Palestinian terror" and summoned his cabinet to decide on a military response to the organization that Sharon had once described as "the deadliest terrorist group that we have ever had to face." 

In June of 2002, I wrote the following:

 

“But Sharon left something out.

“Israel and Hamas may currently be locked in deadly combat, but, according to several current and former U.S. intelligence officials, beginning in the late 1970s, Tel Aviv gave direct and indirect financial aid to Hamas over a period of years.

“Israel "aided Hamas directly -- the Israelis wanted to use it as a counterbalance to the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization)," said Tony Cordesman, Middle East analyst for the Center for Strategic Studies.

"Rise of the four-star deities" Mehdi Hasan

 "Douglas Macgregor, a retired colonel, decorated Gulf war veteran and adviser to the Pentagon until 2004, says he is disturbed by the "modern deification" of generals. "Most Americans have no military experience," he tells me. "They tend to impute to anyone wearing stars a degree of competence and courage associated with battle-hardened leaders of the Second World War or the Korean conflict. Nothing could be further from the truth."

According to this view, the Rolling Stone debacle is an example not just of a single general exercising bad judgement, but a microcosm of how the top brass as a whole - arrogant, hubristic, overmighty - have overreached themselves. It illustrates the urgent need to recalibrate the relationship between democratic politicians and military commanders.

“Certainly, if President Obama had not fired McChrystal, our civil-military relations problems would have become significantly worse," says one former Pentagon official who served under George W Bush. "But what few people recall is that when the Bush administration first came in, they were determined to rectify what they saw as very serious problems with civilian control, and determined to redress the imbalance. Ironically, because of how the Iraq war turned out, Bush left office with civil-military relations arguably in a far worse state than when he came in. General Petraeus had become the face not only of the military campaign, but of the strategy and policy of the war in Iraq.""  Hasan

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Douglas Macgregor Is a friend.    He is a fighting soldier, and not a politician,  Like those whom I respect the most, he was "sacrificed" by the promotion system to the collective ambition of the soldier/politicians who control the system.

We Americans love military leaders too much and seek them as a corrective in a society  too much given to commercial greed.  "Greed is good," Gordon Gecko said.  A lot of us do not really believe that and thus we seek the men who have given all for the Republic.

We should look to find someone like George Marshall, one of the most disinterested men who ever lived. We are failing in that search.  pl 

http://www.newstatesman.com/north-america/2010/07/iraq-military-war-petraeus

"A new country in an ancient land..." Petraeus

 "A new country in an ancient land..."  That is what David Petraeus says is his goal as ISAF commander in Afghanistan.  That sounds like the crack of doom to me.  To make a new country in that ancient land is a task beyond our strength and patience. "Hubris" was a popular term borrowed from Greek drama a few years back.  It signifies the spiritual pride that goes before a fall.  Petraeus' statement sounds like hubris to me.

More realistically, Barry McCaffrey was asked on MSNBC this morning about the infamous ROE that apply now in Afghanistan.  He said that COIN consists of more than political action and economic development.  He said that COIN also requires vigorous combat action to keep pressure on the insurgents.  Hmmm...  that sounds familiar and nothing like the "Clear, hold, build...." gibberish in the field manual.  

McCaffrey was also asked what he thought Petraeus' major effort should be in the next year.  "Unraveling the Taliban," he said in a reflection of what really worked in Iraq.  "Bribery, inclusion in the government, trickery, whatever works in unraveling the Taliban.

Remarkable.  I wonder if the wrong general was appointed to the command of ISAF. pl 

BTW.  I can "read" ribbons.  In this portrait of McCaffrey, there are two awards of the Distinguished Service Cross on top.  I also see two Silver Stars and at least one Bronze Star with V.  These are awards for battlefield valor.

Blurring the Lines: Israel and COIN

 Adam L. Silverman PhD

COL Lang, in his column yesterday on Israel and Hamas, wrote that: “the Israelis do not do COIN.  They do “wog bashing”.  It is amazingly refreshing to see that in print.  Since the Spring of 2009 I have seen repeated references in various venues to the Israelis doing COIN; most recently at a meeting I attended about a month ago.  The first reference to Israelis conducting COIN operations that I heard was at the April 2009 COIN Leaders Workshop at Ft. Leavenworth.  One of the presenters, an Army officer, decided to illustrate his point with several examples, one of which was about how Israel conducts COIN.  Several weeks later, in the middle of a working group that I was attending as a subject matter expert, I heard another officer working on Afghanistan related issues made a similar set of remarks.  Most recently, in the comments to a guest post on COIN and its institutionalization, or lack thereof, that I did for Tom Ricks’s Best Defense Blog, one of the best known COINtras, a military historian and active duty colonel, alluded to the Israeli approach to COIN.  I asked him in a follow up comment if he would please explain to me why he stated that the Israelis have been doing COIN in the Occupied Territories for years as I do not really think they do and would love to see a good explanation.  I never got an answer.  Prior to this the other two mentions I had seen of Israel and COIN were at the Abu Muqawama blog, where Mr. Exum did a pretty good job at getting at some of the nuance and on a reading list he linked to from the Insurgency Research Group.  My guess is that there are a lot more references available if I were to search for them, but unless I have a specific reason to look for something on the COIN blogs, I generally stay off of them as I find the ongoing fight between the COINdinistas and the COINtras tiresome and largely the wrong argument to be having altogether!

The Russian "secret agents"

 "Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said U.S. police who arrested 10 suspected spies in four cities in the eastern the United States on Sunday had gone "out of control".

"I hope that all the positive gains that have been achieved in our relationship will not be damaged by the recent event," Putin told visiting ex-U.S. President Bill Clinton in Moscow.

An 11th suspect was arrested in Cyprus on Tuesday and freed on bail, police on the Mediterranean island said. The Russian Foreign Ministry said those arrested in the United States were Russians and the charges against them were baseless.

In Washington, administration officials said the case would not set back President Barack Obama's drive to "reset" ties with Russia, one of the signature diplomatic initiatives of his administration.

"I think we have made a new start to working together on things like in the United Nations dealing with North Korea and Iran," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said. "I do not think that this will affect those relations.""  Reuters

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Every country spies on every other country.  That is the truth.  It is the "game of nations,"  This is nothing to get excited about.  We all do it.  Governments need information.  Governments try to hide information and so "Spying" is necessary.  Even countries that are supposedly close "allies" (a much over-worked word). spy on each other.   In such instances the operations are merely classified at a higher level.  Spying for information as well as "influence" operations are major weapons.  That is why they are taken seriously.

Neither the existence of Russian operations against the US nor the comic but necessary "outrage" evinced by Putin are surprising.  What the reason was for arresting these people at this time is obscure but probably not very important.  Usually, the police prefer to let such activities continue under surveillance, believing that it is better to "supervise" known activities, perhaps even feed them a little "chicken feed" to see where the chickens run as a result.

I imagine that this group of agents were part of a project in infrastructure building to support more important Russian operations.   The thought that they were really part of an effort to infiltrate universities or think tanks is just too ludicrous to believe.

Send them home and their children with them.  pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65R5OU20100629?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews