Sic Semper Tyrannis

Gone Away

 I am "out of pocket" today and tomorrow doing some consulting work for the federal government.  If you would like me to devote myself to this full time, let everyone send me 10 dollars a month.  Insults will not be posted.   pl 

Russian spies arrested - Good! Now?

 "The U. S. Justice Department has announced the arrest of 10 people accused of spying for Russia."

Eight of those arrested on Sunday are charged with carrying out long-term, deep cover assignments in the United States on behalf of the Russian Federation."  VOA

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Excellent!  Now what about Israel's spies and agents of influence?"  pl 

http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/usa/10-Alleged-Russian-Spies-Arrested-in-United-States-97348779.html

National Journal Blog - 28 June 2010

http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/06/after-mcchrystal-how-should-th.php#1598819

Money corruption in Afghanistan

 "In recent months, the U.S. officials said, Afghan prosecutors and investigators have been ordered to cross names off case files, prevent senior officials from being placed under arrest and disregard evidence against executives of a major financial firm suspected of helping the nation's elite move millions of dollars overseas.

As a result, U.S. advisers sent to Kabul by the Justice Department, the FBI and the Drug Enforcement Administration have come to see Afghanistan's corruption problem in increasingly stark terms.

"Above a certain level, people are being very well protected," said a senior U.S. official involved in the investigations."  Washpost

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I don't see any Defense Department investigators mentioned in the story.

As I have hinted before, the problem lies in the sheer volume of money being spent in Afghanistan or about Afghanistan.  The sums are so large that they constitute an opportunity as massive as the great Gold Strikes of the 19th Century.

That much money corrupts everything it touches.  If these Afghans are skilled at aborting investigations of people so senior that they control the flow of money, do you think that they are alone in this effort?  

Does this article mean that the media are going to begin to look at this seriously?  I hope so.  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/27/AR2010062703645.html

"Archaeology in the Americas, Part 2- Mitla Ruins, Oaxaca, Mexico" Maureen L. Feinblatt

 

Great post by Maureen on "The Athenaeum"  pl 

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2010/06/archaeology-in-the-americas-part-2-mitla-ruins-oaxaca-mexico.html

Open Thread on American Purpose and Interests in AFPAK

Someone asked.  pl 

"Obama: Hostage To Petraeus" Andrew Sullivan

 "One suspects there is simply no stopping this war machine, just as there is no stopping the entitlement and spending machine. Perhaps McChrystal would have tried to wind things up by next year - but his frustration was clearly fueled by the growing recognition that he could not do so unless he surrendered much of the country to the Taliban again. So now we have the real kool-aid drinker, Petraeus, who will refuse to concede the impossibility of success in Afghanistan just as he still retains the absurd notion that the surge in Iraq somehow worked in reconciling the sectarian divides that still prevent Iraq from having a working government. I find this doubling down in Afghanistan as Iraq itself threatens to spiral out of control the kind of reasoning that only Washington can approve of."  Andrew Sullivan

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I have given my opinion that after the December policy review on Afghanistan, President Obama will change his policy on Afghanistan.  I think Sullivan is right.  Obama is stubborn and will decide to back Petraeus "play."  So, the policy change is likely to be a relaxation of the July, 2011 date.  pl 

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2010/06/petraeus-now-runs-the-war-and-obamas-presidency.html

"Will McChrystal's intel staff survive his exit?" Jeff Stein

 "In the shock wave following Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s abrupt summons from Kabul, word raced through Washington’s special operations circles that his senior staff had been relieved of duty, too.

“They were told to pack a suitcase and get on that plane,” one veteran of McChrystal's staff said Wednesday. “They said ‘We’ll forward the rest of your belongings, your danger pay is done.’ ”

Chief among those said to be ordered out was Maj. Gen. Michael T. Flynn, McChrystal’s intelligence chief, who authored a controversialdenunciation of U.S. spying efforts in Afghanistan early this year, and his brother, Charlie, an Army colonel who is the general’s chief of staff.

Charlie Flynn had a cameo role at the top of the infamous Rolling Stone piece that did his boss in."  Jeff Stein

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From personal experience I can say that it is not a good idea to keep someone else's followers on your staff when you take over..  pl 

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/spy-talk/2010/06/will_mcchrystals_staff_survive.html?hpid=topnews

"Does Israel suffer from 'Iranophobia'?" CSM

 “We are making them stronger than they are,” says David Menashri, the director of the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University. “To refer to Iran as an ‘existential threat’ – I refuse to use this term – you give Iran greater credit than they deserve.... What signal does it send to our own people, that the day Iran should have nuclear weapons you should leave the country, because your existence is threatened?”  CSM

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I think the Iranians intend in the long run to have deliverable nuclear weapons.  The achievement of that goal is a long way off.  Their immediate goal is electric energy produced from reactors.  What is it that makes Iran want nuclear weapons.  I do not think that they want them in order to launch nuclear attacks on Israel.  they want them for the purpose of altering the balance of power.  I think that Trita Parsi is correct in arguing that Iran is essentially a state like any other, a state that has elites who have interests firmly anchored in this world and not the next.  Islam insists that the existence of the 'Ummah is God's will.  the Iranian elites know that the result of a nuclear attack on Israel would be the total destruction of at least the Iranian segment of the 'Ummah.   The Israelis should calm down.  pl 

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2010/0618/Does-Israel-suffer-from-Iranophobia

National Journal blog - 24 June 2010

http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/06/whats-at-stake-in-southcentral.php#1597376

"Punishing Turkey" - Giraldi

 "As the popular narrative in the media has unfolded, Turkey was the aggressor and Israel yet again the victim.  Turkey now has to be punished.  Congress is already considering passing the frequently shelved Armenian Genocide resolution and Representative Mike Spence warns "There will be a cost if Turkey stays on its present heading of growing closer to Iran and more antagonistic to the State of Israel."  Representative Shelley Berkley agrees, saying that she would actively oppose Turkey’s attempt to join the European Union.   Just exactly how she will do that is not completely clear.

The American media and the punditry in Washington has obediently been lining up to condemn Ankara, using two basic arguments.  The first contention is that Turkey has become a stronghold of Islamism, is edging towards a political and economic alliance with Iran, and is even acting friendly to terrorism-supporting neighbors like Syria.  The second narrative is that Turkey is no longer reliable due to its support of initiatives like the flotilla and also its bid to negotiate a solution to the Iranian nuclear program dilemma."  Giraldi

http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2010/06/23/punishing-turkey/

No Punishment for Wanat?

 "The initial inquiry by Marine Lt. Gen. Richard Natonski concluded that the brigade, battalion and company commanders had overextended their force and did not provide enough support for the troops to defend themselves in the austere terrain. Petraeus approved Natonski's findings.

But Gen. Charles C. Campbell, whose command was formally charged with sending out letters of reprimand, decided not to take action against the officers after reviewing Natonski's 4,000-page report and discussing it with the officers."  Jaffe

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This seems very odd.  The outcome of the battle at Wanat was the result of profound failures of planning and execution on the part of the very men who have been let off the hook by this action.  Petraeus approved Natonski's judgment.  Why did that not end the matter?  

People must understand of course that a letter of reprimand placed in an officer's file, effectively ends that officers career.  This is because the system of promotions and selection for schooling and command is a competitive one.   The rank structure is pyramidal with fewer positions at each successively higher grade. The rule is "up or out."  If one is not promoted then one is out.  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/23/AR2010062305289.html

National Journal blog - 23 June 2010

 http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/06/whats-at-stake-in-southcentral.php#1597021

OTB Radio - 23 June 2010

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/otb/2010/06/23/politics-and-foreign-affairs

See the McChrystal post on 30 May, 2010

I am surprised that some of you don't understand what is at stake in McChrystal's offense.  It is really quite simple.  The principle has always been in this country that the federal military is an instrument of state policy.  Our tradition is designed to prevent the emergence of "Caesarism" as a method of picking leaders or determining basic national policy.  To maintain that principle Macarthur was fired on the advice of George Marshall.  What McChrystal has done is to challenge President Obama. Everyone in the armed forces knows that.  The notion has emerged in the COIN community that Obama is weak and can  be bullied into removing the time restriction that he has placed on the Afghanistan COIN campaign plan that he adopted at their urging last year.  Macarthur implicitly threatened both Roosevelt and Truman with the possibility that he would mobilize Republican politicos against them.  The COIN crowd think that the same method can be used against this president.  They have been willing to bet that he is no Truman and that Gates and Clinton do not have Marshall's strength.  The effrontery of the deed in feeding this reporter all this material without placing it off the record is clearly a challenge to civilian control of policy.

McChrystal must be fired.  Then he should be put on the retired list in his permanent grade with no end of career award.  Then some thought should be given to the clear violation here of Article 88 of UCMJ.

Active duty military people are free to express their opinions to their superiors. They are not and should not be free to use the press against the civilian government.

Admiral Byng comes to mind.  pl 

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/page/5/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contempt_toward_officials

Jon on Surge(s)

 "The Iraq 'surge' succeeded primarily because the Anbar tribes (including many present and former Baathhists) got tired of being squuzed between fundamentalist jihadis on one side, ethnic cleansing Shia on the other, and the US sitting on their heads. So the tribes cut a deal with the US and were rebranded as local militia with US support. They then cleaned out the jihadis on their own. It also succeeded because ethnic cleansing in Baghdad and other provinces had largely been accomplished by the time the 'surge' got started. I would imagine that in many parts of Afghanistan locals would be quite fed up with the Taliban micromanagement of their daily lives, and would appreciate being able to revert to their locally administered customs. This is likely much less probably in the Taliban's homelands in the Pashtun areas. If the US can foster and assist local governance and administration, they may be able to excise and convert the Taliban. But this comes with downsides, the greatest of which are warlords. Afghanistan turned to the Taliban because of the generation of warfare by warlords, left to their own devices in the power vacuum after the Soviet withdrawal. Karzai probably still is the closest thing to a weak ruler that can balance the disparate warlords. But a successful outcome may not result in a strong, centrally governed democratic nation, where the warlords have been neutered, women have many rights, or opium is not widely cultivated. There is an excellent discussion yet to happen about what might realistically be expected as the best outcome, and the time, effort and cost necessary to arrive at that point."  Jon

The Gizab Good Guys and the Greenies

 "The Taliban thought this place was untouchable, and what the people here showed them -- and everyone else -- was that they could stand up and break free from that grip," said Brig. Gen. Austin S. Miller, the top U.S. Special Operations commander in Afghanistan. One of his Special Forces teams moved here after the uprising to train the self-appointed local guardians, whom the American troops christened the Good Guys.

The insurrection did not draw immediate attention in Kabul or Washington because Gizab is in a remote part of the country that has largely been ignored by the Afghan government and international military forces. But as word of what occurred here has trickled out, U.S. and Afghan officials have scrambled to understand how it started and how it can be replicated.

Conversations with Gizab leaders and Special Forces officers suggest that there was no single proximate cause. The uprising appears to have been the result of a combination of Taliban overreaching, U.S. encouragement and local resentment.

"We're looking for the patterns," said a State Department official in southern Afghanistan. "If we can find it, we'll be on the verge of a breakthrough."  Washpost

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Do we get it now?  Do we see that success can be gained this way and not by blundering around in Kandahar and Marja?  The State Department is looking for "the patterns."  Is Stanley looking for "the patterns as well, or is he going to continue to be guided by the think tank freaks?  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/20/AR2010062003479.html

 

The Twisted Genius on Lieberman's Bill

Bruce Schneier has been quite vocal in his critique of this government attempt to seize control of internet communications. He recently took part in an Intelligence Squared debate on the proposition that "the cyber war threat has been grossly exaggerated." Key to his argument is that the government is using the over-hyped threat of a cyber Armageddon or digital Pearl Harbor (or a host of other scary metaphors) to exert control over the internet. Not surprisingly, his main opponent in the debate was Mike McConnell. What I found shocking was that McConnell’s side won the debate handily. The sheep are scared to death of the cyber bogeyman that McConnell and many others created and are willing to cede control of the internet to the government. A transcript of this debate is here: http://intelligencesquaredus.org/wp-content/uploads/Cyber-War-060810.pdf

"Lieberman Introduces Bill Targeting Internet Freedom"

 "Senator Joe’s bill is nothing if not another example of totalitarian government on steroids. “The bill would give a newly-formed National Center for Cybersecurity and Communications the authority to monitor the ’security status’ of private websites, ISPs and other net-related business within the U.S. as well as critical internet components in other countries,” writes Andy Chalk. “Companies would be required to take part in ‘information sharing’ with the government and certify to the NCCC that they have implemented approved security measures. Furthermore, any company that ‘relies on’ the internet, telephone system or any other part of the U.S. ‘information infrastructure’ would also be ’subject to command’ by the NCCC under the proposed new law.”

Imagine if you can what sort of “security status” this website would merit.

“It is alarming that so many people have accepted the White House’s assertions about cyber-security as a key national security problem without demanding further evidence. Have we learned nothing from the WMD debacle? The administration’s claims could lead to policies with serious, long-term, troubling consequences for network openness and personal privacy,” writes Evgeny Morozov, a Belarus-born researcher and blogger who writes about the political effects of the internet.

Joe has called for government control and censorship of television, so we can assume his “cybersecurity” jihad will not stop with the government micromanaging network security. He has a keen interest in deciding what the plebs can watch and presumably read on the internet."  

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Could this be a more naked attack on 1st Amendment rights?  If it passes it is only a matter of time before SST will be no more.  pl 

http://www.prisonplanet.com/lieberman-introduces-bill-targeting-internet-freedom.html

"An NCO recognizes a flawed Afghanistan strategy" Will

 ".. the rules of engagement for U.S. troops are "too prohibitive for coalition forces to achieve sustained tactical successes."

"Receiving mortar fire during an overnight mission, his unit called for a 155mm howitzer illumination round to be fired to reveal the enemy's location. The request was rejected "on the grounds that it may cause collateral damage." The NCO says that the only thing that comes down from an illumination round is a canister, and the likelihood of it hitting someone or something was akin to that of being struck by lightning.

Returning from a mission, his unit took casualties from an improvised explosive device that the unit knew had been placed no more than an hour earlier. "There were villagers laughing at the U.S. casualties" and "two suspicious individuals were seen fleeing the scene and entering a home." U.S. forces "are no longer allowed to search homes without Afghan National Security Forces personnel present." But when his unit asked Afghan police to search the house, the police refused on the grounds that the people in the house "are good people."

On another mission, some Afghan adults ran off with their children immediately before the NCO's unit came under heavy small-arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), and the unit asked for artillery fire on the enemy position. The response was a question: Where is the nearest civilian structure? "Judging distances," the NCO writes dryly, "can be difficult when bullets and RPGs are flying over your head." When the artillery support was denied because of fear of collateral damage, the unit asked for a "smoke mission" -- like an illumination round; only the canister falls to earth -- "to conceal our movement as we planned to flank and destroy the enemy." This request was granted -- but because of fear of collateral damage, the round was deliberately fired one kilometer off the requested site, making "the smoke mission useless and leaving us to fend for ourselves.""  Will

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I know that I am boring and repetitive on this subject.  Nevertheless, I think the extreme nature of the restrictions on fire support for coalition troops is foolish and wrong.  Will is smart to listen to sergeants.  They are always the people to listen to if you want to know the truth.  

I know that I will now be lectured on COIN theory, "hearts and minds," etc.  I am not impressed by that.  I did COIN in South America,  Southwest Asia, and of course the "big one," in Southeast Asia.  I was taught COIN theory in 1964 at Ft. Bragg by some of the French and British authors of the dogma.  So, forget the lecture.  I have dug enough wells for people who should have dug their own wells to understand the faults of the concept.

COIN is a fragile instrument.  It is essentially a contest for control of the population.  The tools can be either sticks or carrots or some combination of these.  The "mix" of tools must contain both or the theory will not work.

Villagers "laughed at US casualties?"  What?  Afghans are not impressed by displays of weakness.  How can we expect the Afghans to trust us with their safety if we are so weak as to not be willing to defend our own soldiers.  Stanley seem to be intent on making infantrymen appear to be lightly armed social workers.  That is a bad idea.

Troops in contact were denied illuminating fires and smoke for fear that the brass casing on the round might fall on someone?  Well, I have had these casings land all around me.  If one hits you in the head you are a "deader," but the thing has to actually fall on you.  I am still here, for good or ill.  

Then, there is the issue of chain of command responsibility to the troops they are given the privilege of commanding.  That chain of command extends all the way to Obama and it includes him.  He is responsible for the lives of those who are sworn to obey his orders however foolish they may be.  That is a very special responsibility.  

McChrystal seems to have an honest man's doubts about the course of action he is following in south Afghanistan.   Petraeus has the look of someone who is not well.  President Obama had better stop listening to the generals and the business developers and start listening to the people in the field, the real people.  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/18/AR2010061803760.html

"Israel's Nuclear Weapons" Farr

 http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/farr.htm

Oil Disaster Open Thread

I am increasingly seeing materials that suggest an "End of Days" scenario as an outcome for the Gulf/BP catastrophe.  Let us review the "bidding" on this.  pl  

A Dialogue with Helmut Schmidt and Fritz Stern - Scott Horton

"With the kind permission of C.H. Beck Verlag, former German chancellor Helmut Schmidt, and Columbia University historian Fritz Stern, I am pleased to present here the first in a series of excerpts from the bestselling book Unser Jahrhundert—Ein Gespräch, in an English translation I have prepared.

Scott Horton

i. israeli-german relations

schmidt: … In this connection we need to discuss the relationship between Israel and Germany.

stern: Yes, but also the relationship between America and Israel and not just with respect to the neoconservatives. Until recently hardly anyone was permitted to criticize Israel. An open discussion is just beginning now—on this point I have become more optimistic. There is a new organization composed of reasonable Jews and non-Jews that is attempting to develop a new policy. Overall we can say that a majority of American Jews are reasonable and do not belong to those who support every policy of the Israeli government. But the minority is so well organized, so wealthy, and so ideologically motivated that it plays a major role. By this I mean groups that are not necessarily neoconservative, but are close to Likud and identify themselves strongly with Israel and believe that no criticism can be tolerated. It’s much more difficult to speak critically of Israel in America than in Israel. The Israeli press, the Israeli public is much more open than my country, where criticism of Israel is quickly denounced as anti-Semitism. It’s even worse than in Germany, I think.

schmidt: But in Germany it’s pretty bad. Even here one hardly dares to express any criticism of Israel for fear of being labeled an anti-Semite.

What's the pressure in the hole?

 "Some experts are beginning to worry about whether BP, or any company, has enough strength to pay the eventual price for one of the worst environmental disasters in U.S. history — a tab that may continue to run for two or three decades.

"One of the problems is that we don't even know if $20 billion will be enough. This is all on an unprecedented scale," said Joe Hahn, a professor at Pepperdine University's Graziadio School of Business and Management who formerly worked as an engineer in the oil industry.

Hahn said the company might face the additional problem of severe fines from its decisions before and after the oil rig exploded.

"Initially, I thought they would be able to survive this, but they are in serious financial trouble. Their future is very questionable right now," Hahn said."  LA Times

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This article mentions 20 billion in  BP assets that have been "set aside" as a "kind of collateral" for payment of the "trenches"of the $20 billion dollar fund. What assets are these?  How well are they secured from the possibility of a Chapter 11 bankruptcy or dissolution of the BP Group elements within the reach of US law?  

Hayward's performance yesterday made me think that he was "buying time" for BP, buying time for them to come to grips with whatever they decide is the best course of action for their stockholders.

Dylan Ratigan yesterday interviewed one Matthew Simmons on the subject of the actual condition of the hole that BP is trying to plug.  Simmons, evidently a leader of the "Peak Oil" people, insists that the down hole pressure is not 11,000 PSI as Hayward said to Congress.  Simmons maintains that the pressure is really more like 60,000 PSI.  If that is the case then it would seem that both the present leak and the relief wells may be ineffective.  What do you all know of this?

Simmons also says that USGS scientists in the Gulf have determined that there is no casing (metal pipe) left in the bore hole.  He says that the pipe has been blown out by the extreme pressure.

His solution?  A small yield nuclear explosive in the bore hole.  Opinions?  pl

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil-spill-bp-20100617,0,2351140.story

‘The Surge of Ideas’ Michael Flynn

 
"In recent years there has been a tendency for like-minded think tanks and military officers to jointly pursue policy objectives, sometimes in direct conflict with the stated preferences of the president and his advisers. According to some observers, this trend raises questions about the appropriate role of both military officers, who are part of a chain of command, and think tanks, which present themselves as "non-partisan" appraisers of public policy."  Flynn

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In addition to the issues raised by Flynn we now have the phenomenon of officers like John Nagl leaving the Army to start their own think tanks, in his case CNAS, to push a particular theory of warfare (COIN).  Nagl was recently heard to say that he is not worried about Obama's stated intention to begin withdrawing the force from Afghanistan in July, 2011.  He said that pressure from the Republicans will prevent that.

A "servant of the republic?"  pl

http://original.antiwar.com/michael-flynn/2010/06/16/the-surge-of-ideas/

"McChrystal Faces "Iraq 2006 Moment" in Coming Months" Gareth Porter

 "Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal confronts the spectre of a collapse of U.S. political support for the war in Afghanistan in coming months comparable to the one that occurred in the Iraq War in late 2006.

On Thursday, McChrystal's message that his strategy will weaken the Taliban in its heartland took its worst beating thus far, when he admitted that the planned offensive in Kandahar City and surrounding districts is being delayed until September at the earliest, because it does not have the support of the Kandahar population and leadership. 

Equally damaging to the credibility of McChrystal's strategy was the Washington Post report published Thursday documenting in depth the failure of February's offensive in Marja."  Gareth Porter

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-A political collapse?  I am not so sure that my fellow Americans are that smart.

The 2007 turn around in Iraq occurred against accepted wisdom.   What worked was exploitation of ancient hatreds.  People in that part of the world are not really citizens of nation states  An exploitation of their true differences always works.  The naifs in charge in re Iraq and Afghanistan are locked into their university indoctrination for Max Weber, Emil Durkheim and their pals' beliefs concerning the evolution of mankind socially towards larger and larger units.  Unfortunately for that notion, this idea is merely an expression of the desire of historically oppressed minorities for the creation of new paradigms that will include them.   This has been tried in the Islamic World, over and over again. I could name a variety of parties and will do so if pressed.  Nevertheless, the outcome of this struggle over the last hundred years is that Muslims prefer their traditional civilization in all its variety.  Yes, there are, and have been those, both in the recent past and the long ago, who wanted basic change but they have always lost to the majority. who wanted more or less the status quo.  The neocons rejected that record and insisted that the "Muslims" awaited liberation from their own culture.

This has proven to be a false premise.  pl 

http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=51804

Cordesman "sobers up" on Afghanistan

Realism in Afghanistan:   

Rethinking an Uncertain Case for the War 

By Anthony Cordesman 

June 16, 2010

There is nothing more tragic than watching beautiful theories being assaulted by gangs of ugly facts. It is time, however, to be far more realistic about the war in Afghanistan. It may well still be winnable, but it is not going to be won by denying the risks, the complexity, and the time that any real hope of victory will take. It is not going to be won by "spin" or artificial news stories, and it can easily be lost by exaggerating solvable short-term problems. 

The Living and the Dead - Richard Sale

The Living and the Dead

By Richard Sale, author of Clinton’s Secret Wars

The way people talk reveals a great deal about the way they think, and the level of oral incompetence today among so-called professionals in the news should be a cause of distress or alarm.
 
When you listen to the news, you discover that there is a complete disdain for the listener. The first requirement of any statement is that it be interesting. To be interesting, a remark cannot simply be something everyone else has already said on the same subject.  Clichés may be convenient tools for the lazy, but they stifle response by cutting short the possibility of it. The reaction to a cliché is merely a species of passive recognition, similar to spotting a stop sign. "Oh, yeah, I've heard that," says the dolt when he hears a commonplace, thinking that his thoughtlessness has somehow been validated and made legitimate by innumerable repetition. 

Can Obama seize BP assets?

 "Barack Obama will order BP to hand over control of damage claims arising from the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, his spokesman said today as the company was granted permission to try a new method of containing oil from the spill.

The US president is to give a televised address to the country tonight, his first from the Oval Office during his presidency, to reassure Americans that the government is in control of the crisis.

Obama's spokesman, Robert Gibbs, said the president was poised to seize the handling of damage claims from BP, if necessary. He would also use the speech to identify a person to lead the recovery effort and discuss reducing the US's reliance on fossil fuels and imported oil."  Guardian

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I want to see BP pay for it - all of it.  that would be an enormous sum.  There are direct costs of the clean up and then there are costs to individuals and businesses in lost income.  Those costs will continue for years.  Then there are costs to the state governments concerned in lost tax revenue from businesses damaged and tourists that wil have disappeared from the Gulf coast area.

Mr. Gibbs says that the US has the legal power to force BP to disgorge all that money.  Is that true?The US has a long standing tradition of resistance to ex post facto legislation.  Would some form of impoundment of BP's assets stand up in federal courts?  BP is an international company with a European base.  Why do we not think that BP would transform itself in some way to limit liability ans salvage assets for the benefit of stockholders?  They said they will pay for everything?  Don't be amusing.  These are businessmen about whom we are talking, not "grunts" on a ridgetop in Afghanistan.  Business is not about sacrifice, honor and service.  It is about making money.  It looks as though BPs liabilities in the Gulf region are virtually unlimited.  They will try to escape from that.  pl 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jun/15/obama-bp-oil-spill-claims

Open Thread - FIFA 2010

 

"U.S. Identifies Vast Riches of Minerals in Afghanistan" NY Times

"The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe.

An internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and BlackBerrys.

The vast scale of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth was discovered by a small team of Pentagon officials and American geologists. The Afghan government and President Hamid Karzai were recently briefed, American officials said. "  NY Times

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Someone asked what this means.  IMO It means that there are going to be some very rich people in Afghanistan.  It also means that the lives of ordinary Afghans will be profoundly changed perhaps for the better.

It does not mean that the US is going to keep a big force in Afghanistan any more than Iraqi oil has had the effect of causing the US to want a permanent large military presence there.

Will American companies want to do business in Afghanistan?  Of course they will, but they are going to have a lot of competitiion.

The Afghans should now start worrying about what the nature of their relations with Pakistan and Iran will be in the future.  p

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/14/world/asia/14minerals.html?no_interstitial

National Journal - 14 June 2010

http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/06/are-americas-alliances-fraying.php#1593162

Afghan corruption - Whose ox will be gored?

 "The military is focused on battling corruption at the local and provincial levels in ways that illustrate a commitment to good governance for the population to see in their day-to-day lives. Yet, Pentagon officials acknowledge that this localized effort must be supported by a more senior-level, political decision by the Obama administration on how to deal with corruption at the uppermost echelons of the Afghan government. American military officials have worked closely with Afghan law enforcement authorities and developed information that local prosecutors have used in newly established trials at the detention center for detainees accused of corruption or drug charges. Ultimately, this kind of information could also be used to help the Afghan government weed out corrupt governors."  NY Times

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Paraphrasing Stan the Man, "It's hard to save people who do not want to be saved."  Paying "commissions" on business deals of all kinds is business as usual in the Middle East, South and Central Asia.  There are, of course, people in those regions who would like to have the kind of more or less effective anti-corruption laws that the US military assumes should be the norm.   In the real worlds of Afghanistan and Pakistan, money corruption is the stuff of everyday life. It is illustrative of the lack of reality inherent in the idealistic COIN doctrine that people like General Flynn think that they can alter the business behavior of the Afghans in the way that is implied by this emphasis in military intelligence in Afghanistan.  One of the difficulties in this effort is the nearly total lack of experience or knowledge of business in the officer corps.  Most officers go straight into service from university graduation and serve continuously in what amounts to a socialist universe until they retire into the world of defense consulting and the associated contracts.  Bottom line:  They don't understand business.

The authors of this article hint at the need to drive this process of hunting for corruption to the highest level of government.  That will be a very difficult thing to do.  If they arrive at the highest levels of corruption they may be surprised at what they find there.  pl 

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/13/world/asia/13intel.html?pagewanted=1&ref=todayspaper

"Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites" Tomlinson

 "Saudi Arabia has conducted tests to stand down its air defences to enable Israeli jets to make a bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, The Times can reveal.

In the week that the UN Security Council imposed a new round of sanctions on Tehran, defence sources in the Gulf say that Riyadh has agreed to allow Israel to use a narrow corridor of its airspace in the north of the country to shorten the distance for a bombing run on Iran.

To ensure the Israeli bombers pass unmolested, Riyadh has carried out tests to make certain its own jets are not scrambled and missile defence systems not activated. Once the Israelis are through, the kingdom’s air defences will return to full alert."  Tomlinson

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If this were true, and the plan were executed, the Saudis would pay a very high price in the Islamic World. The "legitimacy' of Al-Saud rule in the land of the emergence of Islam would be gone.  It has always been a bit shaky.  The reaction of the armed forces of Pakistan is incalculable in such a situation, and they ARE the Islamic nuclear power.  And what would Israel's air force accomplish in such an attack with conventional weapons?  Can Israel be this foolish?  Are the Saudis equally foolish?  I think not.  pl 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7148555.ece

National Journal - 11 June 2010

http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/06/gaza-flotilla-strategic-blunde.php#1592169

"The Attack on the USS Liberty: Lessons for U.S. National Security" Ebinger

"It is ironic that the Israeli Defense forces attacked a flotilla of relief ships bound from Europe to Gaza in international waters in a manner all too similar to its assault against the USS Liberty also in international waters on June 8 forty-three years ago. It is even more tragic and a national disgrace that in the immediate aftermath of Memorial Day there is scant remembrance of the 34 crew members comprising naval officers, seamen, two marines and a civilian who were killed in the attack along with the 171 crew members who were wounded. While the official inquiries by both nations found the attack to be a case of mistaken identity of the Liberty, to this day there is a long record of distinguished officers and journalists who take strong exception to this view believing that the attack was deliberate. Indeed the attack on the Liberty is the only maritime incident in U.S. history where our military forces were killed that was never investigated by the Congress."  Ebinger

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Brookings?  Will wonders never cease?  pl

http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2010/0608_uss_liberty_ebinger.aspx

Marja

 "Residents of this onetime Taliban sanctuary see signs that the insurgents have regained momentum in recent weeks, despite early claims of success by U.S. Marines. The longer-than-expected effort to secure Marja is prompting alarm among top American commanders that they will not be able to change the course of the war in the timePresident Obama has given them."  Washpost

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I said a while back that the Marja effort would be decisive.   That continues to be true.  The theory and practice of the COIN philosophical fantasy was put to the test there and the test is headed for an "F" grade result.  

"Government in a box" does not work.  Pre-fab governments are inherently artificial and devoid of support.  Authentic governments that are accepted by those governed must be organic and grown from the native soil of local folkways.  If they are not, then they are one form of "occupation" or another and local forms government will always have greater significant support in the population even if they are something like the Taliban.

Karzai knows that.  He knows that Stanley's government building efforts are doomed and he does not want to be doomed as well.  Stanley  can go home and retire in Florida.  Karzai would look silly in Florida.  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/09/AR2010060906214.html

Latest Neocon insanity: kick Turkey out of NATO - Harper

 IN RETALIATION FOR THE ISRAELI ATTACK ON THE GAZA AID FLOTILLA 

The silly season just got positively bizarre.  In the aftermath of the Israeli armed assault on a Turkish-flagged aid ship, bound for the Gaza Strip, some of the more rabid American neocons have demanded, in no uncertain terms, that Turkey must be punished by being kicked out of NATO.  Yes, you heard me correctly.  Israel carried out an act of international piracy, and cold-blooded murder in international waters, and Turkey must be punished.  Has someone dumped a shot of LSD-25 into the water cooler at the American Enterprise Institute?

Ernie Gallo's Letter

Download Ernie Gallo Letter 6.7.10

To believe the attack on USS Liberty was an accident you must be wilfully uncomprehending.  pl 

Helen Thomas Resigns.

"Thomas caused an uproar with her recent remarks that Jews should "get the hell out of Palestine" and "go home" to Poland, Germany, America and "everywhere else."

"I think she should and has apologized," White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said at the daily briefing today. "Obviously those remarks do not reflect, certainly, the opinion of, I assume, most of the people in here, and certainly not of the administration."

Since Thomas made the comment in a May 27 interview with RabbiLive.com, former U.S. officials and fellow columnists had called for her suspension from the White House press briefings, where she has her own front-row, center seat. Thomas, 89, is given special privileges due to her long-standing service as a journalist. She has covered every president since John F. Kennedy."

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It was a stupid thing to say.  It was also a bad thing to say.  i have had Arabs say that to me of the Israeli Jews.  I have tried various responses.  One is to point out that most Israeli Jews of today's population were born in the land.  What makes them less Palestinian than the Arabs, the handful of Armenians, Druze, Chechens, etc.?  I have tried pointing out the similarity of situation of the Jewish settler population of Palestine and the European descended populations of North America, Australia, etc.  Should we all go "home" as well?   Incomprehension always seems to be result of this discussion.  I suppose that the question of whose ox is being gored has a lot to do with this incomprehension.  BTW, I am equally unimpressed by the "God gave us the land" argument. I don't think that God is in the real estate field.

It was time for Thomas to retire.  Her foolish remark shows that, but what should concern us all is that her words resulted in a wave of hostility that ended with a denunciation from the White House itself.

Speech is no longer free in the United States.  This  is a "muffled zone." pl 

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Media/helen-thomas-resigns-telling-israeli-jews-home/story?id=10847378

Clapper

 God help us all.    In this Reuters piece Gates makes clear what is happening.  He says (paraphrasing) that he was opposed to creating the DNI position, that it will never amount to anything and that Jimmy Clapper is temperamentally suited for such a job.  In other words Clapper is supposed to preside over the trivialization of the job with an eye to its eventual abolition.  

Perhaps that will work.  If so, it will be the DO's ultimate success in covert manipulation.

It will be interesting to see if Clapper's instinctive Type A desire to destroy his rivals will accept such a role.  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6550OW20100606?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/05/AR2010060502969.html

Unequal Reactions - Adam Silverman

Unequal Reactions in the Wake of the Israeli Raid on the Turkish Flotilla

Adam L. Silverman PhD

“The Citizens of the United States of America have a right to applaud themselves for giving to Mankind examples of an enlarged and liberal policy: a policy worthy of imitation. All possess alike liberty of conscience and immunities of citizenship. It is now no more that toleration is spoken of, as if it was by the indulgence of one class of people that another enjoyed the exercise of their inherent natural rights. For happily the Government of the United States, which gives to bigotry no sanction, to persecution no assistance, requires only that they who live under its protection, should demean themselves as good citizens.” – Excerpt from President Washington’s Reply Letter to the Hebrew Congregation of Newport (now known as Tuoro Synagogue), August 1790

The official US and Israeli responses to Israel’s raid on the Turkish flotilla are astonishing, and remarkable, as dozens of the SST community have indicated in comments.  They are especially remarkable given the manner in which reliable witnesses have reported the raid to have been conducted, Israel’s selective editing of confiscated footage to support its Information Operations, and the casualties including both a US citizen and citizens of a close NATO ally.  Perhaps the most startling responses appear to be perverse, mirror images of each other.  On Tuesday 1 June Meir Dagan, the Chief of Israel’s Mossad, told the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee of Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, that Israel’s actions were impacting its relationship and alliance with the US.  Dagan specifically said that “Israel is gradually turning from an asset of the United States to a burden.”   This is an astonishing bit of testimony by the head of Israel’s foreign, and supposedly clandestine, intelligence organization. 

Who painted this? - Easy

I too did not speak out - Yossi Sarid

 "In the beginning, he was a gazelle whose neck the hunters were seeking. With time, he tried to become a seagull in the hope that if he was in the sky, they would not bring him down. He went to every corner of the land to build a nest for his rejected hopes, to find a refuge, until he finally found a place to rest his legs and soul − Nitzana. Late MK Arie “Lova” Eliav was the first traitor. But I did not speak out because I was not Lova.'  Sarid

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As I read this I was thinking of Pastor Bonhoeffer's words as well.  Then I thought of how far along this process is in the US.  The steps described are paralleled here as exercises in the domination of discourse and intimidation of those who would speak in the public square. The institutions of a free society have been used against the ability of the citizenry to understand the truth.  People are afraid of being "targetted" and deprived of their livelihood.  We are approaching a crisis in US/Israeli relations, a crisis that is the creation of the Likud and its American allies.

Cowboy up people!  Be not afraid!  pl 

http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/i-too-did-not-speak-out-1.294208

Open Thread - 4 June 2010

I am busy.  Entertain each other.  pl 

 

Peck Interview on "Countdown."

I used to know Ed Peck quite well.  As I recall he served in the Army in the Korean War and I remember that he told me that he is Jewish.  He is 81 years old.  pl

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKNI5q38ABs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Peck

National Journal Blog - 2 June 2010

 

http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/06/superpower-or-spendthrift.php#1589625

US Appointees are screened by us - Haaretz

 "The latest round of heated debate has been over the nomination of Hannah Rosenthal to head the Office to Monitor and Combat Anti-Semitism in the Obama administration.

"Rosenthal, who is the daughter of a Holocaust survivor, served as a Health Department regional director under the Clinton administration, and held positions in different left-leaning Jewish organizations.

Between 2000 and 2005, Rosenthal was the head of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs; she was also the executive director of the Chicago Foundation for Women. In recent years, she has served on the advisory board of the J Street lobby.

The president of Americans for Peace Now lauded Obama's appointment of Rosenthal. Even Anti-Defamation League chairman Abraham Foxman came out in support of Rosenthal's appointment.

"This appointment signals the continued seriousness of America?s resolve to fight anti-Semitism," Foxman said in a statement.

Shortly after the announcement of Rosenthal's nomination, conservative Jewish web sites began to attack her, some of them declaring that Obama appointed an anti-Israeli to fight anti-Semitism."  Haaretz

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"Office to Monitor and Combat Anti-Semitism"  Did you know we had one of these?  Ah, now we know why senior appointees in the executive branch are mostly flunkies for Israel.  pl

http://www.haaretz.com/news/american-jews-eye-obama-s-anti-israel-appointees-1.2773

More Spin from Israel - Giraldi

 "And what is the actual evidence that the flotilla threatened Israel?  Well, even by The Post’s nearly nonexistent standards there doesn’t seem to be much beyond Fred Hiatt’s penchant for name calling.  It is pretty much agreed that the ships were in international waters, were unarmed, and were carrying relief supplies.  The only actual evidence cited for possible extremist ties on the part of the organizers is one line concerning the Turkish charity affiliate, "Humanitarian Relief Fund…raises some of its money from Islamic religious groups."  Jonathan Schanzer’s "The Terror Finance Flotilla" in The Weekly Standard also indicts Humanitarian Relief Fund, calling it an "officially designated terrorist organization" because Israel has it on a list."  Giraldi

http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2010/06/02/more-spin-from-israel/

Lang Family tree - Ancestry.com

 

You might want to look.  pl