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07 April 2010

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Clifford Kiracofe

Very helpful analysis, thanks.

N. M. Salamon

Dr. Silverman:

While I accept your analysis' validity, I find it somewhat different from your other postings, you did not expound on the reason for the LISTS, a creation of essentially USA lawyers under the authority [illegal] of the [illegal] occupying power [notwithstanding the lipstick by the UNSC]. It appears that not only was Bush election contrary to USA constitution [notwithstanding the USSC], the ensuing years were a story of more and more illegal acts [though without legal recourse for the transgression].

It appears that the Iraqi government has taken a lesson from USA leadership, whatever I do, is legal by definition [ a new concept of the rule of law].

I appreciate the Colonel's posting of the results by LISTS - though it would be informative if it be shown how the lists are made up.

I am aware that the INTENATIONAL COMMUNITY [meanig the USA and her satraps] prefer the Iraqqiya’s right to form government [if they could], however the USA example / lesson stand a good chance of imitation and hell with the consequences.

It will be interesting to see whom the Sadrist will pick as compromise PM! should know soon. Their choice might be the only solution available for Iraq, and the rest might/will have to live with it.

Adam L Silverman

Mr. Salamon: here is a link to the breakdown of political party by lists:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iraq/party.htm

As for the Lists concept being a creation of the US, and therefore illegal, my understanding is that this electoral process, which includes the Lists, was the creation of IHEC (The Independent High Electoral Commission) and the Iraqi Parliament with input from the UN and the US. While it is true that IHEC is the product of the Coalition Provisional Authority, it clearly demonstrated, as did the Iraqi Parliament, its independence when it took the US negotiators to the cleaners over the format of the 2009 Provincial Elections back in 2008.

I'm really not trying to pick sides here - ultimately the Iraqis will sort themselves out for themselves), which is something I've been saying since I first got ready to deploy in 2007 - rather my analysis is based on what is likely to produce the most favorable outcome for the Iraqis themselves: one that diminishes the chances for further violence.

As for the Sadrists as kingmakers: I think that is being overplayed. The other INA parties, let alone the State of Law and/or Iraqqiya parties will find a way to keep that from happening.

Jose

Iran will probably sort this mess out in the short-term, because it is in its national interest to consolidate its influence in Iraq without violence.

The next election is the one which will probably result in violence, because whoever gets to be Prime Minister will not be forced by the American troops to give up power peacefully.

Ironic that being in control, actually means we have no control at all.

Green Zone Cafe

Graphic is a Syrian flag - Iraqi flag is here -
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/flags/large/iz-lgflag.gif

no need to post this comment, just FYI.

Patrick Lang

GZC

A moment's inattention. Sorry. pl

N. M. Salamon

Dr: Silverman:

Thank you for clarifying my miscopnceptions on the Iraqi9 election.

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