Sic Semper Tyrannis

Habakkuk on reality in the ME

 mo,

thank you for that most interesting explanation of why Hizballah may indeed, as Nicolas Noe suggested in Asia Times last month 'believe that the next war can and should be the last one between Israel and its enemies.' 

What you write, however, has the effect of further inflaming a suspicion which has been growing steadily stronger in me over the past weeks -- that the situation in the Middle East is rather like a smouldering volcano.  It may not erupt, but could well do so, and if it did, the eruption might come suddenly and unexpectedly, generating a conflict which could escalate out of control, possibly with totally catastrophic results. 

And the likelihood of catastrophe is, I think, greatly increased by the fact that many people are living in a fool's paradise, and do not grasp quite how dangerous the situation

Afghanistan is harder than we thought...

 "There are currently about 87,000 U.S. forces in Afghanistan, a number expected to rise to 98,000 by the end of August.

Military officials expect insurgents to try and further step up the use of roadside bombs to increase NATO casualties in 2010. Following the announcement of the U.S. troop surge, insurgent leaders shifted from direct attacks to roadside bombs and other indirect assaults.

The insurgency has easy access to fighters, small arms and explosives for roadside bombs, the report notes, giving fighters a "robust means" to sustain military operations.

"A ready supply of recruits is drawn from the frustrated population, where insurgents exploit poverty, tribal friction, and lack of governance to grow their ranks," the report said.

The report also notes that insurgents' tactics are increasing in sophistication and the militants have also become more able to achieve broader strategic effects with successful attacks. The Taliban continue to use threats and targeted killings to intimidate the Afghan population.

At the same time, Taliban shadow governments, which can include courts and basic social services, have strengthened, undermining the authority of the Afghan government, according to the report."  LA Times

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I'm tired of bitching about this.  Just read this article in conjunction with the thing I posted about SF in Afghanistan.  pl 

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-fg-0429-us-afghan-20100429,0,3038681,full.story

"U.S. training Afghan villagers to fight the Taliban"

 "... beginning in late February, a small detachment of U.S. Special Forces soldiers organized nearly two dozen villagers into an armed Afghan-style neighborhood watch group.

These days, the bazaar is thriving. The schoolhouse has reopened. People in the area have become confident enough to report Taliban activity to the village defense force and the police. As a consequence, insurgent attacks have nearly ceased and U.S. soldiers have not hit a single roadside bomb in the area in two months, according to the detachment.

"Everyone feels safer now," said Nasarullah, one of two gray-bearded tribal elders in charge of the village force. "Nobody worries about getting killed anymore."

The rapid and profound changes have generated excitement among top U.S. military officials in Afghanistan, fueling hope that such groups could reverse insurgent gains by providing the population a degree of protection that the police, the Afghan army and even international military forces have been unable to deliver.

But plans to expand the program have been stymied by Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who fears the teams could turn into offensive militias, the kind that wreaked havoc on the country in the 1990s and prompted the rise of the Taliban. "This is playing with fire," an Afghan government official said. "These groups may bring us security today, but what happens tomorrow?"

Citing Karzai's objections, Karl W. Eikenberry, the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, has blocked the release of money needed to broaden the initiative. He also has instructed State Department personnel in the country not to assist the effort until the Afghan government endorses it."  Chandrasekaran

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The "big army" still hates the Green Berets.  Given a chance, this kind of strategy, backed by a smallish number of conventional troops as a mobile reserve could neuter the true Taliban, the irreducible hard core of that movement.  The rest of the fighters now sloppily lumped in with the true Taliban could either be won over or made to see that continuing to fight is useless.  But, no, the conventional generals would rather play COIN with a hundred thousands troops than let SF carry the day. There is something about Special Forces soldiers (Green Berets, not Delta counter-terrorist commandos) that is deeply threatening to the brass hats.  

Eickenberry sides with Karzai? What a surprise!  He is yet another conventional brass hat.

Karzai fears a countryside filled with villages armed and ready to fight to defend themselves against predatory Taliban or government.  What a surprise that is as well.

Someone will argue that this technique did not work in VN.  Observations: there are no NVA in Afghanistan, nor is there a Taliban "lobby" in the States.   pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/26/AR2010042604215.html

Mike Ware gone from CNN - what a shame!

 "Ware discussed his PTSD in a disturbing December 2008 Men's Journal piece. “I am not the same f**king person," reads the lead.

It's unclear exactly how long he's been on leave, but the last update on his personal website was on Dec. 18, 2009.

Ware is a successful and well-loved correspondent, and fans have been getting curious about his absence.

Indeed, All Things CNN writes:

His work for CNN over the past four years has been an astonishing and brutally honest look at the causes and results of war. Not easy subject matter to watch… but he made us care. His urgency and passion burst through our television sets and made us pay attention, made us want to understand.

You'd think that given CNN's ratings troubles it would be doing anything it can to give the viewers what they want."  Business Insider

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Ware is "not the same f**king person."  Of course not; how could he be?  Some memories are burned on the soul, forever.  His reporting was always the best rivaled only by that of Richard Engel.  CNN seems to have lost its way, converted into a vehicle for propaganda.  I guess Mike's unblinking, profane and fearless reporting was just too much for them.  pl 

http://www.businessinsider.com/cnns-guy-in-iraq-michael-ware-has-left-the-network-2010-4#ixzz0mTuDA1Q6

The Rules of Engagement. - Time

 
 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1982093-3,00.html#ixzz0mCl0TfON

The Rules of Engagement

Senjaray is a warren of mud walls and unpaved streets, dust and more dust, shaped like a hornet's nest hanging from the branch of a tree. The branch is the Afghan Ring Road, a two-lane paved highway. The U.S. fort is located just north of the highway; the Taliban control the land to the south, a lush farming area, irrigated by water from the Arghandab River. The dividing line is a canal that runs along the southern border of the town; the Pir Mohammed School sits on the banks of both that canal and one other, which runs along the eastern edge of the hornet's nest. "It's a crucial strategic position," Ellis says. "My plan was to build a strongpoint next to the school that would later be converted into an Afghan police station. It was necessary to protect the teachers and students, but it was also necessary to protect the town. That intersection was the Taliban's way in, and as soon as the enemy found out that we wanted to reopen the school, they began to concentrate their forces on the area as well." Indeed, sources up the chain of command told me that the Taliban were moving forces into the Arghandab Valley, in anticipation of the summer fighting season.

Iraqi election Aftermath: Sectarian Bombings - Silverman

 Adam L. Silverman PhD[1][1]

On Friday 23 April four car bombs (vehicular born improvised explosive devices/VBIEDs) went off around Baghdad.  All four targeted Shi’a sites: two exploded in the Zafaraniyah area close to the Sadrist stronghold in Sadr City and one each at the Hadi al Chalabi Mosque and the Muhsin al Hakim Mosque.  The latter two targets are mosques named for/founded by the father and grandfather, respectively, of Ahmed Chalabi, leader of the Iraqi National Congress, and Ammar al Hakim, who succeeded his father as head of the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq (ISCI).  While the Iraqi leadership had already come forward to blame the violence on al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) as retaliation for the recent Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) killings of two AQI leaders, the targeting pattern seems to provide a different insight.  All four sites targeted have some relationship to one of the two large Shi’a religious party lists, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), led primarily by now returned Iranian supported Iraqi ex-patriots: the Chalabi and al Hakim Mosques.  Additionally, Moqtada al Sadr, currently residing at the Iranian Holy City of Qom in an attempt to become an ayatullah, has his strongest base of support in the Shi’a areas in and around Sadr City – areas like Zafaraniyah.  Had this been simply been a case of AQI retaliation one would expect the targets to have been ISF facilities and bases, governmental sites and ministries, and/or anything specifically associated with PM Maliki and his special counter-terrorism unit. 

Iraqis are high context communicators.  Rather than come in and directly state what the problem they are upset about is and laying out an expected resolution, they instead try to indirectly demonstrate their discomfort.  While this oblique way of communicating has been, and still most likely is, frustrating for US military and civilian personnel it makes sense to keep it in mind when trying to determine what the Iraqis are communicating in their targeting.  While it certainly makes no sense for simple targeting, such as a buried, crush wire IED that is going to go off when any sufficiently heavy vehicle goes off and therefore has an element of randomness, it does make sense to step back from the immediate hyperbole and try to discern the messages from a well coordinated and specifically timed and placed attack.  It would seem just as likely, if not more so, that the targeting of sites linked to the leadership and supporters of the INA was not AQI retribution, rather it was intended to send a message of displeasure about INA leaders behavior.  The offending behavior, the context, is the very close results for the largest plurality in the recent election, the dispute of the results by PM Maliki and his State of Law List, especially the attempts by members of the Iraqi National Alliance to play kingmaker two weeks ago at a conference in Iran.  This meeting excluded Iyad Allawi, the leader of the Iraqqiya List, made up of an interesting combination of secular Sunnis and Shi’a, as well as the more tribal/traditionally oriented Sunni and some Shi’a as well, and seemed to focus on forming a State of Law and INA coalition; a coalition that would only require a handful of other elected members of parliamentary to reach the magic number of 163 seats in parliament to form a government and which would lock out the Iraqqiya Party List – which won the right to have the first attempt to form the next Iraqi government.  Given the disputed election it is probable that the bombings last Friday were an attempt to deliver a message of displeasure about the elections, not about the killings of the two AQI leaders.

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[1][1] Adam L. Silverman, PhD was the Socio-cultural Advisor assigned to the 2BCT/1AD from OCT 2007 to OCT 2008 and was deployed in Iraq in 2008.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the 2BCT/1AD.

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And on the 27th this in the NY Times pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/27/world/middleeast/27iraq.html?src=un&feedurl=http://json8.nytimes.com/pages/world/index.jsonp

More propaganda from the Washington Post

 ""If these reports turn out to be true, we are going to have to review the full range of tools that are available to us in order to make Syria reverse what would be an incendiary, provocative action," Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman told the House Foreign Affairs Committee last week, moments after making a strong pitch for the first U.S. ambassador in Damascus since 2005. Administration officials have suggested that the Scuds may not have reached Hezbollah in Lebanon; in that case the strong statements may be preventative. What is known for sure is that Syria has facilitated the transfer of thousands of rockets and missiles to Hezbollah since 2006 in blatant violation of the U.N. resolution that ended that summer's war in Lebanon. So why persist with the "engagement" policy? "President Assad is . . . making decisions that could send the region into war," was Mr. Feltman's answer. "He's listening to Ahmadinejad. He's listening to Hassan Nasrallah. He needs to listen to us, too.""

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"If these reports turn out to be true..."

Well, are they or aren't they?  Israel asserts that Syria has transferred some of these old, liquid fueled ballistic missiles to Hizbullah to drag around in the hills, fiddling with the dangerous fuel and oxidizers.  What would be the point?  Hizbullah is already in possession of a large and effective collection of short and long range rocketry. 

Israel is an interested party in this matter.  Are we to take their word for it?  What does US intelligence say of this?  

This Hiatt editorial quoted Jeffrey Feltman a lot.  Feltman's bias is clear.  Why is he still at the State Department as Assistant Secretary for the Near East?  Don't we need a new ambassador in Iceland?  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/25/AR2010042503106.html

"British family tells US hotel they 'do not want to deal with black staff'" Telegraph

 ""On or about February 28, 2010, the Rodney Morgan family arrives as guests of (the) Ritz and specified… their preference to not be served by 'people of colour' or with 'foreign accents'," said the claim lodged at the Florida District Court.

"This preference was entered into the computer system of (the) Ritz at the direction of the (the hotel's managing director Edward Staros) with the further notation '… as per Mr Staros this couple is very very prejudice [sic] and do like like [sic] ppl of colour or foreign accents'."

Michael McDonnell, the waiter's lawyer, said that nine other staff members at the hotel have said they were told the British family did not want to be served by blacks or anyone with an accent.

His lawyers have cited the Civil Rights Act of 1866, which was passed a year after blacks were freed from slavery following the end of the American civil war, which makes it illegal to discriminate in jobs and housing on the basis of race."  Telegraph

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Well, the Telegraph is a British newspaper.  So, I suppose this can not be dismissed as mere "Brit Bashing."  English hotels are full of "colored" and "foreign sounding" help, except perhaps for the Connaught.  Where did this family come from, somewhere in the wilds of "Wuthering Heights" Yorkshire, or wherever it was? Nouveau riches boors?  Gadzooks!  This sounds like a mirror image of the cartoon like Americans that I often see on British television.  You know, the fat, ignorant, ill mannered, crass characters that provide such a satisfying contrast to the noble, wise, worldly and moderate British in these productions.

I watch a lot of British television.  My wife is addicted to the stuff.  My actual favorite British TV production is the cop show, "Waking the Dead" which I do consider the best thing of its kind, ever.  pl 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/7620781/British-family-tells-US-hotel-they-do-not-want-to-deal-with-black-staff.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waking_the_Dead_(TV_series)

Arizona immigration bill - CS Monitor

 "Mr. Obama, speaking at a White House Rose Garden naturalization ceremony for 24 foreign-born members of the US military, said that continued inaction on federal immigration reform would "open the door to irresponsibility by others." The Arizona bill to which he referred would require police to check the residence status of those they suspect of being in the country illegally, something Obama said "threatened to undermine basic notions of fairness that we cherish as Americans."

In signing the bill Friday afternoon, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) called it "another tool for our state to use as we work to solve a crisis that we did not create, and which the federal government has refused to address," adding that the people of her state had been "more than patient in waiting for the federal government to act" on immigration reform."  CS Monitor

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I am on record here with a couple of unlikely but heartfelt ideas about the border/immigration/illegals problems:

1.  De-couple residence and economic activities from citizenship between the US and Mexico.  In other words we/they can live anywhere we want in the two countries, can own anything we want and take our money wherever we want.  You would pay taxes in the country(s) in which you made it or lived.  This would have nothing to do with citizenship.  In this plan if you wanted to become a voting citizen, you would have to go through whatever process the receiving country prescribed.  I suspect that few Mexicans would want US citizenship.  they just want the money.

2.  Merge the two countries; one flag, one constitution, one set of police forces, one set of armed forces, one IRS...  No?  I thought not..  Same thing - the money is what is wanted.

So, what are the objections to the Arizona law?

Federal legal supremacy in immigration policy and border control?  I suspect that the argument on the part of Arizona will be that this is not "immigration law."  It is enforcement of the legal status of individuals within Arizona. 

The advocates of "comprehensive immigration reform" say that they want justice for the poor people in the United States who are not properly "documented."  They become quiet when asked what should be done about stopping the continuing flow of undocumented migrants across the borders.  Congressmen, lawyers, activists and clergymen of this type (I am thinking of Mahoney) should be asked if they think the US has the right to control movement across its borders  Put another way, do Mexicans have an inherent and natural right to move to the US simply because they wish to do so?

"Profiling?"  OK.  Reluctantly  I have come to think that the time has come for national ID cards.   pl

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2010/0423/Arizona-immigration-bill-just-the-latest-among-state-measures

A Muslim threat to free speech in the US?

 "On April 14 Comedy Central broadcast the 200th episode of “South Park,” a cartoon that Trey Parker and Matt Stonehave produced for that channel since 1997. In honor of the occasion, Mr. Parker and Mr. Stone populated the episode with nearly all the famous people their show has lampooned in its history, including celebrities like Tom Cruise and Barbra Streisand, as well as major religious figures, like Moses, Jesus and Buddha.

Cognizant that Islam forbids the depiction of its holiest prophet, Mr. Stone and Mr. Parker showed their “South Park” characters agonizing over how to bring Muhammad to their fictional Colorado town. At first the character said to be Muhammad is confined to a U-Haul trailer, and is heard speaking but is not shown. Later in the episode the character is let out of the trailer, dressed in a bear costume.

The next day the “South Park” episode was criticized by the group Revolution Muslim in a post at its Web site,revolutionmuslim.com. The post, written by a member named Abu Talhah Al-Amrikee, said the episode “outright insulted” the prophet, adding: “We have to warn Matt and Trey that what they are doing is stupid, and they will probably wind up like Theo van Gogh for airing this show. This is not a threat, but a warning of the reality of what will likely happen to them.”

Mr. van Gogh, a Dutch filmmaker and a critic of religions including Islam, was killed by an Islamic militant in Amsterdam in 2004 after he made a film that discussed the abuse of Muslim women in some Islamic societies."  NY Times

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I am not a Muslim, but I have been a student of the religion and the civilization influenced by it for many years.  I often lecture on these subjects.  I lecture from the point of view of a respectful but skeptical outsider.  I would expect a Muslim lecturer to take the same approach to speaking of Christianity or any other religion.  Prince Hassan of Jordan's excellent book, "Christianity in the Arab World" would be a good example.

Having said that, I, nevertheless, think that "Revolution Muslim's" posting of Talhah al-Amrikee's statement is a thinly disguised death threat intended to intimidate free speech.  The sub-text here is that some speech should be freer than other speech and that speech with regard to Islam should not be free at all, but, rather, should be limited by the opinion of Muslims as to what Islam really is and its applicability to all people.

I think "South Park" is  sophomoric and vulgar.  John Stewart and Colbrt are true political satirists.  Stewart's show is gradually divesting itself of some of the gross thematic material and language of the past.  I have not heard him cry out "NAMBLA" for a while.  Colbert is a formidable adversary for anyone who wants to debate.  The only time I have seen him flustered was the occasion when Jane Fonda sashayed to his side of the table, sat in his lap and nibbled on his ear.

In short, "South Park" is a "dog's breakfast," but in a secular, religion neutral society that believes that speech must be free if people are to be free, threats like this should be taken seriously by prosecutors and police.  If this kind of thing is tolerated, how long will it be before some zealot stands up in an audience to threaten me for describing Islam as I understand it?

"Crying fire in a crowded theater" is outside the limits of free speech but this is not that.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/23/arts/television/23park.html

Israel First: More on Dr. Lani Kass - Giraldi

 "My recent account of the career of Dr. Lani Kass was based on what has appeared about her in the public record and media, including her own comments regarding national defense and security policy.  To recapitulate, Kass was born, raised, and educated in Israel.  She has a PhD in Russian studies and is fluent in Russian and Hebrew in addition to English.  Kass reportedly reached the rank of major in the Israeli air force before moving to the United States and working her way up through the US defense establishment.  She is currently the most senior civilian adviser to Air Force Chief of Staff Norton Schwartz and is believed to have access to most American defense secrets.  Kass is best known to the public for her role in promoting Air Force cyberwarfare, but she also appears to have been a major player in counter-terrorism policy and in war preparations directed against Iran even though she has no actual substantive background in those areas.  She believes that the US is engaged in a long war against Islamo-radicalism and that "winning" against Iran is necessary but the American people must be willing to pay the price to succeed."

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In this piece Giraldi raises the question of how this person could have been given a clearance for access to US defense secrets.  Normally, the security clearance adjudicators, a humorless lot, would turn thumbs down on someone like her, not because she is an immigrant, but because she is, at the very least, a former foreign intelligence officer.  I know of no other case like this.  The only way she could have been cleared is that some as yet undisclosed person or persons with a great deal of power in DoD simply over-ruled the adjudicators.  This must have happened repeatedly as her level of access to secrets has steadily risen.  

Ironically, the situation would be quite different if she were here on assignment as an Israeli intelligence officer at the embassy or some such thing.  In that case she would have some access granted by the US but it would be carefully limited.  pl

http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2010/04/21/israel-first-more-on-dr-lani-kass/

"Delusions, the Legislature and an implanted microchip" Galloway

"Wendell Willard (R-Atlanta), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, picked up the questioning.

“Who implanted this in you?” he asked.

“Researchers with the federal government,” she said.

“And who in the federal government implanted it?” Willard asked.

“The Department of Defense.”

“Thank you, ma’am.”"  Galloway

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A lot of us have been "screwed" by the Department of Defense but this is a new development.  pl

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2010/04/19/delusions-the-legislature-and-an-implanted-microchip/

VMI to Present Award to Secretary of State Clinton

"Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will receive the Distinguished Diplomat Award from Virginia Military Institute when she visits the post on April 28.

“Secretary Clinton’s work throughout her public life representing the United States in numerous venues and on issues of national and international importance makes this award highly appropriate,” said Gen. J.H. Binford Peay III, superintendent of the military college. “It is an honor for us that she is taking time from her busy schedule to come to VMI to address the Corps of Cadets as well as receive this award.”

The presentation of the award to Secretary Clinton and her public remarks are scheduled to begin at approximately 7:45 p.m. on April 28 in VMI’s Cameron Hall. The event is free and open to the public. "  VMI Website

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A well deserved award.  pl

 

Tuesday Morning News

 Yesterday was a good day for me, but today?  I'm not so sure.  I returned from walking the dogs this AM to watch Joe Scarborough interview Ray Odierno remotely from Baghdad. Scarborough served up a variety of adulatory "questions" and elicited from the general a testimonial to the efficacy of his own leadership in advocating the increase in troop strength in Iraq in 2007 that, according to him and Scarborough, transformed the security situation and "brought home the bacon" for GW Bush's heritage.  This conversation was the result of a recent successful operation in Iraq that killed two more of AQI's chief leaders in that country.   Bravo!  That talk quickly mutated into a paean of praise from Joe S. about "the surge,"  and Odierno's role in bringing that to be, largely through the medium of behind the scenes conversations with Cheney's people.  That, incidentally, was behind the back of his commander in Iraq, the present Chief of Staff of the Army. If this is not so, I would be pleased to be corrected.  In fact, the increase in American troops on the ground was very useful in many ways, but I continue to think that the essential development that "turned the tide" for a while was the serendipitous realization on the part of Iraqi Sunni Arabs and an emerging number of US military that the insurgents had little in common with AQI and that cooperation was possible.  From that, all else flowed even unto the death of these two fanatics.  Will that last?  Look to the outcome of the recount in Baghdad for an answer.  Is there an esoteric meaning to this talking "bidness" of the "Surge?"  I do not know, but if the COIN campaign in south Afghanistan does not go well, will there be an appeal in the media and the WH (in that order) for more troops?  Will Obama accept that apparent defiance of his orders?

And then there is the leading editorial in the Washington Post in which Hiatt says that "they" are not advocating military action against Iran.  IM experience, when someone tells you that they are not doing or advocating something, then you should know that they are doing or advocating that.  The WP editorial is part of the ongoing "full court press" by Israeli/AIPAC information ops designed to move American public opinion to acceptance of an AMERICAN air war against Iran.  The Israelis know that they themselves lack the ability to punch this much above their weight.  All that nonsense about Osirak and Syria is just that.  Mowing your lawn and mowing the grass at Arlington National Cemetery are both grass cutting. but...

And then, today, there was Bruce Riedel (Reidel?) a once upon a time colleague.  He was on the tube today to "answer for" Gates' leaked memo about Iran strategy.  I wonder who leaked that? (irony)  Riedel insisted that Iran will inevitably attain some kind of nuclear weapon capability and that what Gates (and he) believe is that the US must begin to plan for the long term methods to be employed in managing that phenomenon.  The well programmed and probably fearful anchors (Todd and Guthrie) produced all the usual objections; Israeli unilateral attacks, "don't give up the ship," etc.  In spite of this, Bruce, in his usual humorless, stolid way, persisted in defending the truth of American interest and Israel's limited capability.  God bless, Bruce.  pl 

National Journal Blog - 19 April 2010

 
http://security.nationaljournal.com/2010/04/what-if-north-korea-committed.php#1577117

MEPC Board

I was elected today to the Board of Directors of the Middle East Policy Council.  pl

http://www.mepc.org/main/main.asp

 

Eyjafjallajökull - at TA by my sister.

Pat,

I just put up a short post over @ TA- it's a little something on the Eyjafjallajokull eruption.  Will also be posting an archaeology piece @ TA on recent finds this coming weekend.

Eyjafjallajökull-

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2010/04/eyjafjallajökull.html

Love,

Maureen

Mainstreaming Extremism into American Political Discourse - Silverman

Mainstreaming Extremism into American Political Discourse

Adam L. Silverman PhD[1]

As April 19^th approaches it is both appropriate and unfortunate to take a few minutes and reflect on some of the truly outstanding changes in American political discourse over the past two years.  April 19^th, long remembered as the day that the American Revolutionary War started, has also picked up a much more negative connotation.  Several incidents of domestic terrorism and extremism; most notably the incidents surrounding the Branch Davidian compound at Waco, TX and the bombing of the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City.  Much of my early work on identity based extremism, political violence, and terrorism focused on comparing and contrasting domestic American extremism (white supremacists, militia movements, anti-abortion extremists) with its Middle Eastern counterparts in Israel (the Nturei Karta, Eda Haredim, Gush Emunim and other settlers, Kach and its offshoots like Eyal), the Territories (Hamas, PIJ), Lebanon’s Hezbullah, Egypt’s Islamic Group and Jemma Islamiya, and the violent Algerian offshoots of the FIS – the GIA (Armed Islamic Group), as well as movements such as Aum Shinrikyo.  I spent a great deal of time examining those groups that were apocalyptically motivated, especially those that blended religious and political identity, which almost always puts them on the extreme right of the political spectrum.

Springtime in Leesburg

Yesterday we made our annual visit to the Leesburg, Virginia Flower and Garden Festival.  It was a bright spring day, a little chill but wonderful nonetheless.  This a two day event.  The little city closes Market and King Streets in the center of town around the old courthouse.  No vehicles are allowed.  Vendors and food stalls fill the streets and musical groups entertain from the courthouse porch.  

It is a grand occasion.  People sit with their children on the courthouse lawn to listen.  The bronze soldier who has guarded the city since 1908 towers above them.  

I bought a birdhouse from a man from Pennsylvania who has sold me birdhouses of his making before.  He reminded me quite specifically that there is a responsibility to continue to speak publicly.

I'm back.  pl 

 

"Sen. Lincoln unveils broad derivatives regulatory bill"

 "Based on the legislation, Wall Street firms registered as banks would need to spin off derivatives trading desks to be eligible for the protections made available to banks. A Wall Street financial institution engaging in "risky derivative" deals would not be eligible for federal bailouts.

The bill also requires a large segment of the derivatives market to trade through clearinghouses, which are intermediaries between buyers and sellers that make sure both parties have enough capital. Clearinghouses require participants in a transaction to post capital and would cover losses in case a participant in a derivatives contract can't pay up."  Marketwatch

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So, what's wrong with Senator Lincoln's bill?  Would this amount to a return of Glass-Steagall?  Some of you smart people will educate us on that?  pl

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sen-lincoln-unveils-broad-derivatives-bill-2010-04-16?reflink=MW_news_stmp

Too Good to Pass Up - Giraldi on Kass

A Jewish friend recently commented to me that he had a doctorate in a field useful to the Defense Department and had served in combat in the present war.  "I can't get a civil service job," he said, "but this woman has this position?"  pl

 http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2010/04/14/dr-strangelove-made-in-israel/

Adios.

I suppose the fellow who addressed me as "my man" yesterday was the determinant in my decision to stop dealing with you all at least for a while.  I will think it over.  pl 

Open Thread - 11 April, 2010

I have been involved in taxes and some real work today and tomorrow.  pl

Adam Silverman on the Baghdad Event

 The 2007 New Baghdad Events, the Released Army Investigation Documents, and the Wikileaks’ Discussion

Adam L. Silverman PhD[1][1]

Since COL Lang first posted about the video of the 2007 New Baghdad Operation that took the lives of two Reuters’ reporters I have rewatched the full video, downloaded, read and reread all the CENTCOM documents, including both 15-6 reports, the accompanying photo evidence, and the Apache crew members' statements.  I’m honestly rather stumped about all of this.  Other than what either investigating officer recommended be done as a result of their inquiries, as its redacted and the fact that one of the Apache pilots mentioned that he recalled well after the fact of his initial statement that there was a Be On the Look Out (BOLO) for a dark four door car/sedan that had been dropping "insurgents" off all day in different areas of the zone, everything looks straight forward.  Please remember that my experience in Iraq was not as a soldier or as someone whose job was, and fortunately never had to, actually engage with the enemy; though I spent a significant amount of time off of the base engaging with Iraqis.  To my mind there are three issues that arise from the video and the released documentation: 1) Is this something that is part of the normal course of this or any War, but especially a three block at a time, urban COIN clear operation? Yes, it seems to be, unfortunately, but yes.  2) Did the appropriate commands do proper investigations: from what I can tell from the documents released? Yes.  3) Was there a deliberate cover up? Not that I can tell from the documents released - Reuters reported shortly after the incident that two of its people, a camera man and his driver, were killed during a firefight in which US forces mistook them for anti-Iraqi Forces (this is actually included in the 2BCT/2ID 15-6 Report).  The US never attempted to prevent that reporting, and in it indicated that as they hadn't finished their investigation they couldn't completely confirm Reuters’ assertion, which ultimately turned out to be correct. According to all the statements, of both the Attack Weapons Team (the Apache gunships/AWT) and the Maneuver Element (ME) of ground troops from 2BCT/2ID the ME was in constant Troops in Contact from the moment the operation started, had taken small arms fire, AK fire, and were concerned with RPG fire, and that it was ongoing.  My understanding is that under those conditions the AWT didn't even need to get Commander's permission to fire, they had discretionary permission to go hot whenever they had cleared a target.  This is emphasized in the released statements when the JAG officer interviewing a member of the Apache crew indicates that this understanding, put forward by a member of that crew, is correct.  Moreover, it is clear from the full tape, as well as from the statements and 15-6 paperwork, that on at least one occasion (its hard to tell from the statements if there is a second one referred too or just a strange way of referring to the same event) where a minor is seen in the company of a party of military aged Iraqi adult males, some of whom are armed, and the AWT waits for the juveniles to clear the area before engaging.  Additionally, the two injured children in the van were medevaced to the CASH at Liberty and treated; my understanding is that this requires at least the battalion commander’s, if not the brigade commander’s, authorization. So once the soldiers on the ground realized what had happened, and that there were survivors, specifically the male and female child, they did the right thing and took care of them.

Report of Investigation of the Apache/Reuters Event in 2007

Download 6--2nd%20Brigade%20Combat%20Team%2015-6%20Investigation

OTB Radio - 7 April 2010

 

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/otb/2010/04/07/politics-and-foreign-affairs

"Iraqi Election Results: Post-election Politics Recreate an Old Problem set" - Silverman

 

Adam L. Silverman PhD[1]

The Iraqi election results that COL Lang provides gives a pretty clear snapshot of the Iraqi socio-political reality.  The Shi’a Lists, the State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance, each one has enough votes that an all Shi’a Iraqi coalition could get very close to the minimum number required to form a coalition government.  163 seats is the magic number and the two Shi’a Lists, if they were to combine, have 159!  Given that this Iraqi election was run as a type of first past the post system; whoever gets 163 outright forms the government, if no one gets 163 seats, then whichever List or Party gets the most votes, a plurality, gets the right to try to form the new government.  Should that List or Party fail, than the next List/Party with the most representative plurality gets a chance to try.

Iraq's Parliamentary Election Results - VOA

http://docs.rferl.org/en-US/iraqelections/iraq_elections_home.html

"War is Cruelty" - WT Sherman

 "...the second unarmed survivor as Mr. Chmagh, who runs along a row of houses until he too, is shot, and lies writhing on the ground – apparently unable to get up. The helicopter keeps its cross-hairs on the injured man while one of the US soldiers jokingly pleads over his radio "all you have to do is pickup up a weapon" – which would have allowed him to finish the man off under US rules of engagement at the time. There is no weapon visible.

Shortly thereafter, a minivan pulls up alongside the injured Iraqi. From aboard the US helicopter, a soldier asks, "Can I shoot?" and is then heard requesting "permission to engage?" At that point, another voice – presumably an officer not on scene – asks if the van is "picking up the wounded" and is told that they are. Two Iraqis from the van carry the wounded man around the side of the van to load him inside.

An American voice with the call sign "Bushmaster 7" says, "Roger, engage." One of the helicopters blankets the van with machine-gun fire. The two Iraqis who were loading the wounded man inside scattered, but are quickly cut down as they try to flee"  Dan Murphy

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What happened here?

1- The attack helicopter was evidently there to provide fire support for US infantry in a nearby street.  These ground troops are the men in Bradley AFVs who show up after the helicopter stopped killing people.

2-  The helicopter was supposed to shoot up people identified under ROE existing then as insurgents.  This identification depended on things like carrying weapons or activity that indicated hostile status.  Correct me if I am mistaken, but I do not think that shooting people carrying off what are believed to enemy wounded is a violation of the law of war unless the "bearers" are marked as medical personnel.  Is that cruel and heartless?  Yes.  Sherman was right.

3- The helicopter crew was clearly "leaning forward" in its eagerness to do the job.  I think this is what shocks and surprises a lot of civilians who would like to think of soldiers as wounded or victimized children.  Don't worry, the passing of years will bring all the emotional stress that a therapist might hope for.

4-  In any event. their higher headquarters (probably that of the infantry they were supporting) cleared them "hot" to engage, cleared them twice in fact.

5-  Bottom line from the Army's point of view - a misidentification of the victims by the helicopter crew.

6-  Cover Up?  No.  A local inquiry would undoubtedly decide that this was an accident, stupid, but an accident.   Since this would not be legally actionable, that would be the end of it.  The Army does not think it has an obligation to inform the public when its people "screw up." 

Step back and look at this from the perspective of the whole war.  The decision to invade Iraq and to introduce a heavily armed and very capable modern fighting force into an urban combat environment led directly to that moment in Baghdad when two men, probably in their mid-twenties, decided to kill a group of unfortunates on the street below.  The conditions of the war made this sort of thing inevitable.

In a very real sense the Bush Administration itself killed these people.  pl 

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2010/0405/Wikileaks-releases-video-depicting-US-forces-killing-of-two-Reuters-journalists-in-Iraq

Habakkuk on Sneh

 Andy,In my opinion, this oped likely represents another example of an unstoppable force (Israeli strategic doctrine) meeting an immovable object (the limits of Israeli military power).That a highly intelligent man like Ephraim Sneh should make quite fantastic claims about the ability of Israel, alone and unaided, to set back the Iranian nuclear programme is something which, I think, needs explaining. It may be that he has simply succumbed to hubris. But it is also possible that he is being less than candid.There is, it seems to me, no reason to question the sincerity of his claim that Israel is under 'existential threat', or to dismiss it as paranoia .Unlike Netanyahu, Sneh is not attempting to conjure up alarm by suggesting an Iranian nuclear capability would be under the control of irrational -- and by implication undeterrable -- fanatics. Rather, he is focusing on the crucial questions of the psychological impact of such a capability, and its impact on r isk-taking, in the context of Israel's intractable demographic problems: considerations to which the ability to deter deliberate attack is of very limited relevance.Certainly might dispute Sneh's conclusions, but they hardly self-evidently silly: Israel cannot live in the shadow of a nuclear Iran. Immigration will cease, more young people will emigrate and foreign investments will diminish.

John Waring on Francis

 The original sin, as it were, of the Catholic Church is clericalism, the belief among the ordained that they are the Church. Thus the bishops bend over backwards to protect members of the priestly caste, and ignore their Christian duty to protect the young and vulnerable. I would like to remind the ordained, should any be reading this thread, that one of the greatest saints in Christendom remained a member of the laity. St. Francis of Assisi was never ordained. In the early Church the honorific, Father, was unknown. The presbyter was called "brother". The older I get the more drawn to Francis I become. The idea that once you possess Jesus Christ you have everything and need little else, and that therefore you can live as an itinerant beggar appeals to me more and more. I think the hierarchy should don their penitential robes, go to Assisi, and beg God for the charism of St. Francis. He and St. Dominic saved the Medieval Church. He certainly can save the modern one. I would like to correct the errant nonsense about celibacy that has crept into several comments. As Brother Patrick Ellis, former president of La Salle University and Catholic U famously said, you choose celibacy in order to be free. In his opinion, to be celibate was to be utterly free. A rare gift from God, to be sure, but a magnificent one nonetheless. If you can begin to understand St. Francis you can begin to understand the idea of celibacy as freedom. Whatever the twisted reasons for adult men and women to abuse the vulnerable under their care, celibacy as the cause is completely beside the point. Only the incredibly strong can truly embrace celibacy. In my opinion this whole mess is the result of the failure to reform. One of the great documents of Vatican II is the one on the role of the laity in the Church. The men in the Roman collars need to dust that one off and take it seriously. It is past time to fundamentally change the structure of authority and of pratice, that is, the goverance of the Church. Truly bring in the people of God, plenty of Pope John's sunshine and fresh air, and end the Church as clerical caste.   John Waring

Israel versus Iran?

 There is a lot of babble today about Ephraim Sneh's oped in Ha'aretz in which he implies that Israel must prepare to go it alone "when Israel is forced to attack Iran this year..."

He also says that Israel should accomodate Obama by putting in place an open ended freeze on Jewish constructionin Arab East Jerusalem.

I know Sneh slightly, have talked to him a few times and listened to him make presentations.  He is described as a "liberal."  I suppose so but more importantly he is a very tough minded, logic driven soldier and planner who speaks dispassionately even when the subject is repellent.  He is a lot like Ehud Barak, but perhaps more so.  He is someone to take seriously.

His statement raises the question once again of an Israeli attack on Iran without US acquiescence, and therefore the question of how they would do it.

They have about 350 fighters. All but 30 or so are F-16s.  These aircraft require a lot of aerial refueling, or "up close" refueling bases.  It's a long way from Israel to the scattered, often hardened sites that would be the targets.  The IAF has what? 40 tankers, most of which are C-130s.  What are they going to do, loiter over Iraq to refuel going in and coming out?  Land on Iraqi bases?  One recent fantastic scenario at a non-government war game in Washington featured the construction (without Saudi knowledge) of an F-16 capable secret Israeli temporary airstrip in NE Saudi Arabia that would be used to make up their shortfalls.  The air guys will correct me but I am under the impression that this would have to have a long, FOD free runway with a hard surface.  My impression is that the author of the scenario was desperate.  So, I still don't know how the IAF gets to more than a few targets with a handful of aircraft.  A handful in this context would be a hundred airframes or less.  If they do that they can "dig" some holes once or twice.

Then, there is the ballistic missile force (Jericho).  OK.  They can make the ranges, but the "bird" only flies once.  How many do they have and how big are the conventional warheads?  What is the CEP at range?  Would be the result be a few dozen holes in the ground, many of which would hit nothing but stony earth?

Then, there is the navy?  What?  Cruise missiles with conventional warheads fired from the northern Gulf?  Once again, how effective would the strike be in terms of accuracy and weight of explosives delivered?

And then, there is this:

"In a recent report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), military analyst Anthony Cordesman concluded that Israel will have to use low-yield earth-penetrating nuclear weapons if it wants to take out deeply-buried nuclear sites in Iran."

 Cordesman

So, what is Sneh talking about?  pl

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1160348.html

Happy Easter and/or Passover

 pl

 

Karzai or What?

 "The lack of trust between Karzai and the West could directly hurt the campaign on the battlefield in coming months, when U.S. troops launch the war's biggest operation in the southern city of Kandahar, said Tim Ripley, who writes about defense for Jane's publications in Britain.

"The obvious problem is, the aim of counter-insurgency war is to win the population to the cause. And if you don't believe in the cause, it's difficult to sell it to the population," he said.

"They seem to be not having much confidence in the Afghan government, and the Afghan government doesn't have much confidence in us either."

In recent days, U.S. military officials have briefed reporters on the Kandahar operation, saying they would prefer to sideline Karzai's half-brother, the province's provincial council chief and most powerful man.

Karzai stands by his brother and is unlikely to accept any pressure to reduce his family's interests."  

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"unlikely to accept any pressure to reduce his family's interests."  Really?  I wonder what Dr. Kass advises the CoS USAF and Mullen about this.

I said earlier that the outcome of the effort at Marja would be decisive and that appears to have been a good guess.  

Marja is an experiment.  What is being tested is the hypothesis on the part of the COINistas (Nagl et al) that the foreign coalition can "reform" Afghan government enough to make the true Taliban irrelevant.

Afghanistan is not Iraq.  Despite its varied sectarian and ethnic groups Iraq has a solid core of nationalist identity that is reappearing as a power.

Afghanistan is a less "westernized" place.  Family, clan, ethnic nation and Islamic variety are more dominant features of the country.  

Karzai is a typical Afghan.  His family interests, those of his cronies and their families, these things come first.  Whatever is left over can be "spread around."  We have encouraged this feeling by the extent of our toleration for corruption fueled by drug money and poorly administered foreign funds.

Having done that, we launched a "crusade" for governmental virtue at Marja and expected the Afghans to fall in line with our notion of how to do things. "Do what we think you should and all will be well," is our message.   Karzai came to visit this COIN experiment and was lectured by local people sheltered behind the marines.  He has been told that he should abandon the interest of his half brother.  He was lectured by President Obama.

Be careful or you will break this man and then what will you have?  Direct rule?  pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63118420100402

Run, Run, the Police Are Coming! - Partlow

 "...the prime minister has been contesting the results of the March 7 vote. State of Law has appealed the outcome in Iraq's courts and now, Allawi's bloc says, Al-Maliki is using state security forces in a bid to gain enough seats to emerge the winner.

This week, at least two winning Iraqiya candidates in the capital were told they are wanted, bloc officials and the candidates said. Two others are on the run in the mixed Sunni-Shiite province of Diyala, and another was detained before the elections.

Sunni Arabs see the victory by Allawi, a secular Shiite, as their own. Many Iraqis and analysts worry that Sunnis will feel cheated if Allawi loses his lead before the new parliament is certified, a development that could spark retaliatory violence just as U.S. troops are drawing down to a mandated 50,0000 by summer's end."  Partlow

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OK.  There is more than one way to "skin a cat."  If you can't win a plurality (satisfied?) in the election then you can always drive enough of the victors into hiding to shift the balance.

Am I discouraged by this naughtiness?  No.  The Iraqi electorate came out of the shadows to vote its interests and managed to elect a true nationalist slate to a plurality in spite of the machinations of Ahmad Chalabi that hero of the Wolfowitzians. (That sounds like something from Gulliver)

Maliki should think this over carefully.  His obvious coalition partner is Allawi and the 'Iraqqiya group. That path leads to relative calm and a modernist independent Iraq.  A religious Shia coalition in these circumstances will lead back into the abyss.  pl 

http://www.startribune.com/world/89739807.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUUsZ

ps - How abt that Rothko?

Admiral Mullen and David Ignatius

 "Traveling here with Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I attended a shura hosted by Tooryalai Wesa, the governor of Kandahar province."  David Ignatius

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The rest of the editorial is marginally interesting.  At this point the incompetence of the intelligence effort in Afghanistan no longer surprises.

You may remember that the Rumsfeld Pentagon had a highly developed PR and IO program that cultivated a number of groups of "opinion makers" so as to manage the "information battle" as they think of it. Journalists, retired military people, etc.  Many millions of dollars were spent in contracts for "Information Operations" both external and implicitly internal.   Eventually, the retired military briefings, meetings and distribution of talking points routine surfaced and a number of retired military people lost consultant contracts to the media.  I was invited to one meeting in Rumsfeld's conference room.  I asked questions and was not invited back.  This was about a year after the invasion of Iraq.  I had always wondered how some of the ex military I was on television with were so precisely informed.  I found out at the meeting.  They were briefed in detail regularly by the responsible senior officials including Rumsfeld himself.  Interestingly, motives for the retired officers participating were not altogether mercenary.  A lot of them believed it was their duty to fill the media with the unattributed assertions of the Defense Department and thus to participate in the war effort.  A frightening thing.  The armed forces are the most trusted institutions in the United States.  To risk that for a momentary advantage and in service to the politics of the civilian side of the Pentagon was folly.

Now, we have Mullen, a political officer if there ever was one, carrying Ignatius around so as to "inform him."  How many others are so "informed?."

Ignatius is usually the property of the CIA's information program.  He carries their water.

I guess he is "branching out."  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/31/AR2010033102991.html