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13 January 2010

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J

Ah yes, the 'warped process' occurring on both sides of the shores -- Israeli [and U.S.]politicians are hyping the Iranian threat to divert attention from domestic issues.

Tony

One wonders why these news never get any exposure in US media!

VietnamVet

The battle of ideology verses reality continues with truth the first victim of war and propaganda.

If the United States wasn’t in thrall to Israel, the focal point of the conflict between the two States would be Iran.

Through its client, Hezbollah, Iran has frozen Israel’s borders. Israel has only two choices Arab integration or an Apartheid Ghetto. To hide this truth, an attack on Iran’s Nuclear Sites by Israel’s Right Wing is inevitable.

On the other hand, besides the fact that Iran is not a threat, the USA has three reasons to not attack Iran: 1) Iran is essential to a safe withdrawal from Iraq, 2) Iran will assist in the isolation of Al Qaeda, and 3) an attack on Iran will throw the oil supply into chaos, crashing the world’s economy.

The current Middle East policy is counter to the United States’ own National Interests. If a policy is against one’s own best interest, its persistence has to be due to ideology and the denial of reality; all symptoms of a coming crash, hitting bottom.

N. M. Salamon

another reazson that the MSM/Gov of USA concentrates on Iran and War on Terror is well depicted by the following graph from the National Geographic [USA]:
http://blogs.ngm.com/.a/6a00e0098226918833012876a6070f970c-800wi

Wee {if you are not pharma/hosp shareowner]!

Jackie

I guess what strikes me is how hysterical Israel's leadership is while the retired BG is very calm about the whole thing. I want Israelis to grow up. Doesn't look like that is going to happen anytime soon. Kind of makes me miss Ariel Sharon.

curious

People sort of laugh when I said Israel problem will isolate US from the world. Well, with current Saudi, Iran-China, dollar foreign dependency, oil price, EU economic problem, it's not so funny anymore is it?

The world expects United States to control all its proxy states. Israel problem is on top of everybody's list because it destabilizes the entire middle east and oil price, hence global recovery. (nevermind humand right, freedom, democracy and all that jazz) Nobody gives cares when minor functionary screamed about holocaust at the UN or if aipac owns congress. Everybody simply wants US to "shut that bitch up". Israel problem is causing high unemployment, fluctuating exchange rate, skyrocketing commodity price and destabilizing domestic politics everywhere. (for eg. Yemen food price was highly effected during 2006 commodity spike)

Since that didn't happen, global geopolitics is now rearranging itself aiming for a) oil/gas supply stability b) US fait accompli to be in major eurasia or middle east conflict c) destruction of US fiscal policy and dollar value.. d) various minor religious conflicts and clashes

These are all reflective in SCO, Japan DPJ, asean+3/chiang mai initiative, failure of P4, current Saudi diplomatic effort ... even Pakistan-china relationship.

another example: because of Israel-iran conflict, we have the current China missile defense test (obviously this is related to taiwan weapon sale, which in turn relate to china refusing to sign on Iran sanction.)

The repercussion is huge in eurasia. China is now seen as reliable long term partner, US is not. So one can observe a lot of long term contract with US is dwindling. (boeing is prime example. Jet fighters are another) Next will be Yuan status as regional currency supplanting dollar. (long term bond and future contract.) It is stupid to piss off ones biggest customers that will pay for loan and export goods.

The cat fight between Turkey and Israel is another example. Someone should come down hard on Israel and tell them to stfu. Turkey is a NATO member and key ally in black sea, alternate energy transit to europe. European energy stability depends on Turkey. US-EU alliance and long term economic interst depends on this. If there is ever a Turkey-israel shoot out, that will be the end of NATO. It's legal structure won't be able to handle the trans atlantic stress.

Israel can pretend to act like it is a super power, but at the end of the day, it is just a small imperial outpost at corner of map with increasingly dubious value. It is amusing entertainment to have during good time, but unaffordable in down time. Pretty soon somebody in charge will do cost analysis of maintaining Israel antics. And in the past 2 millenias, all western empires decided it is cheaper to eleminate israel. (but then again, history always repeat itself. so why be surprised? )

Fred Strack

From the second Times link "Admiral Fallon is also understood to have been pressing for a greater allocation of troops to Afghanistan, but has been frustrated at the reluctance of the Administration — and General Petraeus — to withdraw significant numbers from Iraq in the short term."

Not a good reminder for the "Petraeus 2012" supporters.

Jose

Dr. Silverman, thank you for your excellent analysis of a very complicated situation.

IMHO, if we just wait a couple of years, the current regime will fall.

That is why the current regime if trying to provoke a response.

Conflict is the only way they can can crack-down on the protesters by all means, sanctions are the only way to justify a failing economy, and ultimately allow the national pain to produce a nuclear weapon (like Pakistan) which is probably years away.

By now, we should know that neither the Israelis nor the Noecons are strategic thinkers just look to the invasions of Iraq, Lebanon (first invasion produced Hezbollah and second resulted in defeat), Gaza (was it even worth the effort?), and possibly what is going to happen in Pakistan.

" Israel has only two choices Arab integration or an Apartheid Ghetto" - VietnamVet

There is a third option of making the Palestinian's lives so miserable they "migrate" to Jordan.

zhaohui

wadonxrum981
It's no wonder that truth is stranger than fiction. Fiction has to make sense.

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