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08 November 2009

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William R. Cumming

At all income levels, including sales and special taxes, Virginia taxes average below Marylands by about 10%!

TR

Do you disagree with the suggestion that the Republican Party is antagonizing (started to say alienating) Hispanics in Virginia as elsewhere, whether or not intentionally? Ed Gillespie contended McDonnell got that vote in his post-election piece in the Post, but has no numbers (yet) to back him up. It will be interesting to see what the data reveal when collected and analyzed.

Lysander

Col Lang,

Do you think a Ron Paul style old school conservative movement could ever take root in Virginia among white/nonwhite residents?

By that I mean a more modest foreign policy and tight monitary policy.

Omo Naija

The GOP is not going any where until its purged of its "Maccaca" loving wing of the party.

Patrick Lang

Lysander

I think so, but that will not happen. The party apparatchiks have their own fish to fry. pl

zanzibar

Pat

I have worked with East and South Asians for a number of years as an investor in IT, biotech and medical device companies. Your read on them is in my experience very accurate. They truly are middle of the road moderate conservatives. As a hard working and enterprising immigrant group they are fiscally prudent and are intensely private on social matters. They don't wear their sexuality on their sleeve nor are they publicly judgmental on personal issues like abortion. In their native lands for example abortion is legal but an extremely private matter and not discussed even among friends and relatives. I believe they would be very open to a third party that is fiscally conservative and focused on our national interests.

IMO, the Republican party has been captured by "fundamentalists" who are most interested in using the power of the state to enforce their concept of personal morality on everyone else to the exclusion of all other issues. Of course they naturally want to be exempt from living with those same personal mores. The Democrats on the other hand I believe don't have a disciplined internal group that is willing to enforce its principles. The closest I believe are the gay rights folks and they turn many people who are moderate the wrong way by being so in your face with respect to their sexuality.

The core of both parties and particularly the leadership however are, IMO, basically statists beholden to their large campaign contributors who also provide the revolving door to private wealth. Both parties and consequently our government I believe have been captured by the corporatists who are using state power to transfer wealth and control policy to the detriment of the majority of Americans. I am curious how long this state of affairs can continue? What will be the political outcome of this seemingly inexorable march to a new "fascism"?

William R. Cumming

WAPO in past stories indicate nationally 57% of white voters went for McCAIN/Palin. Perhaps a better selection of VP might have helped and he tailed off right after Lehman Bros. failed. Obama got 16% of eligible black voters to turn out nationwide and of those 90% are estimated to have voted for him. Usually black turnout nationwide is about 3-7%! Immigrants that are legal residents and not citizens often do not vote. Only citizens theoretically vote but not strictly policed by most states which control who votes. Assuming that minorities do not vote, except Jews, in large numbers, the American electorate and each state is sliced pretty thin between the two parties. So turnout again is decisive. The DEMS clearly are upset and turned off and tired from the effor tin 2008 and the result. Where this goes I am not sure but suspect that the economy and jobs alone will hurt the DEMS in 2010 and may even destroy the party by 2012. I thought the Republicans would be the first to go but guess not. Looking at the long term we have lacked outstanding leadership in the US for at least 40 years. That failure to get the best leadership is telling across the board now IMO. Leadership is a very very rare commodity and I really think we lack flag ranks with that capability. Personally on the next rotation of the Chief of Staff of the Armed Services I would bring back either Zinni or Shinsheki although neither are perfect. There may be stars buried in the Executive Branch but there sure are buried deeply. American distrust of elected officials represented by low voter turnout and ignorance, may really be demonstrating the Franklin aphorism rings true if as stated when asked after the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia "What kind of government do we have?" and he replied "a Republic if we (you?) can keep it." The 21-30 year olds almost completely abdicated their voting rights in VA. Don't know about the rest of the country or NJ! Perhaps a sense of civic duty is no longer instilled in education from k-12!

jamzo

old virginians and the gop:

1) voters do not register by party, there is no official breakdown of the electorate by party.

2) Of the 39 governors directly elected by Virginia voters, 34
Democrats and 6 Republicans

3) 6 republican governors elected since 1970

4) since 1970 6 GOP governors and 5 DEM governors

1970-1982 gop governors
1982-1994 dem governors
1994-2002 gop governors
2002-2010 dem governors
2010- gop governor

Fred

"Immigrants that are legal residents and not citizens often do not vote." Non-citizens can not vote.

Please provide me one incidence of someone being processcuted for illegally voting and how many such people would need to commit individual felonies to change an election outcome as compared to voter suppression, voter roll purging and other tactics that have actually changed vote outcomes.
Florida 2000:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A99749-2001May30
Florida 2004:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/10/us/florida-list-for-purge-of-voters-proves-flawed.html
Ohio 2004:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A64737-2004Dec14?language=printer
NH 2000:
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/new_hampshire_phone_jamming/

lina

"The values of these groups converge with the middle of the road moderate conservatism of Virginians generally." PL

Huh? Jim Webb, Mark Warner, and Tim Kaine all have (D)s next to their names. They are considered moderates.

And which Republican Party are the next generation of immigrants going to be attracted to? The party of Palin-Bachman-Beck? They might have found a home in the old GOP of George HW Bush, but those people are gone with the wind. Today we have demonstrations in the halls of Congress, sanctioned by Republican leadership, comparing health care reform to Dauchau.

If you can point to evidence that the Republican Party of 2009 is anything but hateful to immigrants, I'd like to see it. Remember the Sotomayor rhetoric leading up to her confirmation? Are those the moderate Republicans that are going to court immigrants?

Holy Moly.

curious

I always think republican party as a cold war party in term of immigrant voters. Most vote republican as a reaction that Dems just sounds too "commie" like in the old country. (eg. most immigrants are over compensating neo middle class. Be the biggest free wheeling a-hole, that's what America is about. Work as a village, lifting all boat, bla bla bla is old and out.) Republican is the default choice.

The only exception is the super high educated immigrants in the academia.

And of course most hispanic new commers, due to Bush policy. And part of Mexican american establishment due to Clinton bailing out mexico in the 90's, maybe Puerto Ricans (there aren't any in VA)

Specifically VA. Most immigrants are particularly rightwing, because of Pentagon, CIA, states dept. connection, various wars, direct government business connections, etc. There is no such thing as lefty immigrants in VA. The immigrant swing vote numbers aren't all that big in VA to matter anyway.

Most of the saner ones are paying both sides anyway. Can't get anything done without grease these days.

Yes, when it come right down to it DC is just shinier version of Kabul really.

Patrick Lang

Curious

Have you ever been here? What do you make of the big Central American immigrant community? pl

Patrick Lang

lina

You really hate these people. All conservatives are not alike. pl

Patrick Lang

jamzo

Seems like you made my point. pl

Patrick Lang

Fred

I caution you against extreme partisan statements here. pl

lina

PL:

I don't hate anyone. I find Michelle Bachman highly entertaining. I'm just saying "conservative" has lost its meaning in the modern day Republican party.

Sidney O. Smith III

Re: Immigrants

Here is what Lina wrote on the thread “End communism and the embargo on Cuba”.

Does anyone know when the Four Seasons Havana is scheduled to open?
Posted by: lina | 18 April 2009 at 10:46 AM

It is reasonable to ask if Dorothy Day or Simone Weil would have said the same. Or at the other end of the progressive spectrum, if Diane Christiansen (h/t Paddy Cheyevesky, Network) would have agreed.

Can't help but think that Flannery O'Connor would have gotten a laugh out of it, but who knows...maybe Carson McCullers and Margaret Mitchell too.

Regardless, it would make a great opening sentence for a literary work, imo.

Fred

Col. My apologies for the post, I violated my own rule posting it.

William R. Cumming

My guess is that 20-30 years down the road none but the brave will call themselves Republican or Democrat! These parties are focused on domestic events only and leave foreign policy and foreign affairs to the experts. All those experts are often not in touch with the reality of foreign cultures or languages or demographics. The world is truly turning upside down and the domestic focus (expertise?) of the American leadership has been almost utterly blind to anything but the former Soviet Union and rise of Russian and Chinese threats since they were able to understand that world but not the current world. Predicting flat out by the time in leaves office President Obama will have started more foreign preventive wars than George W. Bush or George H.W. Bush! eeimrer>didesoe ae

jamzo

the liberal vs conservative thing is a media device

policitians belong to the republican or democratic party

the democratic party may lean liberal but it is not the liberal party

the republican party may seem to be a conservative party at the moment, but it is not the conservative party

liberal and conservative are part of the names of political parties inmany countries but not in the us

we separate ourselves politically divided by the terms "republican" and "democratic" and "independent"

looking at virginia governor elections in terms of republican or democratic viginia governor voting might even be seen as contrarian

since 1978 when one party holds the white house, the other party seems to occupy governor's house in virginia

1970-1978 gop governors in virginia

gop presidents nixon, ford, 1970-1977)

dem president carter(1977-1981)

1982-1994 dem governors in virginis

gop presidents regan and bush

1994-2002 gop governors in virginia

dem president clinton

2002-2010 gop governors in virginia

gop president bush

2010- gop governor in virginia

dem president obama

the symmetry isn't perfect but it is darn close

the white house changes political parties and virginians seem to choose a governor from the opposite party

lina

Mr. Smith:

I adopted the newborn baby of an illegal immigrant. I have a little more than a whimsical interest in the treatment of immigrants in the U.S.
I find Col. Lang's idea that they would find a "home" in the GOP nothing less than astonishing.

Patrick Lang

Lina

I have a framed original sign on my study wall from 1912 that is inscribed "Help wanted, no Irish need apply."

Are there no Irish Republicans? pl

Sidney O. Smith III

Lina

I spend a lot of time representing indigents, so I have an interest in immigrants as well.

Plus, I was almost married to an immigrant back in the day. Korean business woman. She was a libertarian or Chuck Hagel Republican waiting to happen.

Based on that experience and from what I can tell, Zanzibar’s comment is spot on.

Plus, as inferred from a comment above, we live in a time of “ideological disarray” (Phil Weiss’ words). Not sure any labels apply anymore, imo.

lina

Col:

They are even organized:

http://www.irishgop.com/

Of course the further away from stepping off the boat, the less one's immigrant status matters. We have a long history of demeaning the last people who got here.

My son't birth mother gave me her baby to raise because she couldn't feed her other three children. Had she been other than a Latina Roman Catholic, she might have scraped the money together to have an abortion. One could call her a "cultural conservative." She works hard and lives hand to mouth. Perhaps in multiple generations, if planet earth has not gone the way of Mars, her decendents might vote "conservative." For the forseeable future, however, I wouldn't bet on it.

curious

Have you ever been here? What do you make of the big Central American immigrant community? pl

Posted by: Patrick Lang | 09 November 2009 at 05:29 PM

Trying to avoid DC as hard as I can, my top city of soul sucking deadbeat meetings. My knowledge is passing and based on few friends/thin segment of city, but overall seems generic enough. 1)Latinos DC voters largely are part of NoVa tech boom in the past 2 decades. 2)the so called latinos community isn't as deeply rooted as other major cities (I am unfairly comparing it to places like little Havana or east LA here). Most are young professionals, just starting family. New. I am pretty sure various asian american communities in NoVa are bigger and have been around longer.

on top of that, the latinos in VA are really diverse. I don't know how they can be so confidence treating the group as a coherent voting block they can target prefab slogan on. It's not 3% voting block, but 5-10 small groups of 0.3% that pollsters conveniently lump together for easy check mark. But I guess I would know better if I go to church and eat at all the popular lunch places.

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