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14 October 2009

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optimax

Man, I thought the big point is that the Western frame of reference sees the world as incomplete and our job is to rid the world of evil, to make it good, to perfect it, create a perfect stasis which we will design and manage from the computers in our dens. It's bending the savage world to our will that's complicating things.

The Chinese see the world as complete, just changing balance, fluid, something to adjust to, instead of forcing the world to adjust to your way of thinking.

I assumed that was why the Chinese were expanding and we were contracting. I didn't know.

optimax

Curious, I don't understand what your big point is. see a lot of small points that could add up to many different scenarios.

What I wrote above is what I think is happening in the balance of the two big powers, mostly on the economic front but China sees an advantage in us depleting our treasure in Afghanistan. They're not the only ones.

curious

detail of situation on the ground, local politics, personalities of big decision makers, and how money flows are my favorite pointers.

The meta narrative of conflict in central asia has always been about competing national interest of big power. (territory, energy, trade route, geopolitical advantage, ...the usual.) It's that raw.

Of course nobody runs around saying "we gonna kill you all, so we can get mineral/land/conquer". It's wrapped under high minded ideas so it is acceptable to public.

Take taliban for eg.. One has to ask, why are the Tajik or western afghanistan shia not going crazy and blowing up stuff when they seen and did the worst violence during the 30 years afghanistan war? But north east mountain of afghanistan? Really? the spot where taliban begun? Or why things radiate out of Peshawar? The biggest supply coordination point to mujaheedeen?

Nobody is going to admit where muj/talibs originate, how they mutate or that the power that be lost control of these armed militias. More importantly, nobody is going to admit, holy cow... you know, the basic of COIN strategy is exactly what the soviet did. How is that going to mesh with muj/taliban/ISI/CIA original drive? How is Karzai going to ever be able to pull that off with the skill and connection he has. It's 180 degree. (tho' I seriously don't think Karzai even think on this term. he fancy himself to be the king of afghan. He is turning his clock all the way back to 1950's. When the king's court lost favor and modern political parties and secularism arise, hence the anti soviet game in the 70's-80's.)

Russia and china see afghanistan as continuation of cold war mess. They don't say it outright yet, but if you follow the obscure news (but with significant money and long term importance, thus they must put some serious analysis.) you can guess how the big power see each other, plan and anticipate. Those are more honest review of what's going on in afghanistan. Nobody can fudge energy consumption pattern and the need of cheap energy supply. Nobody can fudge the desire to increase value of investment. It won't be a surprise when things turn into low intensity war between big power soon instead of guerrilla war. Once the balance of taliban danger vs. national interest tips.

Knowing afghanistan history where in the end somebody always pulls string arming guerilla to get the other, watching how the big guys think is important. All world major powers clashed in central asia. It's been like that since the beginning of time.

concrete prediction:

-Afghanistan election politics will create major rift. (Watch Norway vs. Galbraith, porcupine oil -- afghanistan election referee)

-Watch how germany negotiate the new NATO treaty (eg. their involvement in afpak and long term arm commitment to US)

- watch how Japan new party reconsider afghan spending, thus entire balance of power in Asia in next 4-5 years.

- watch the trilateral meeting between Russia-China-India, and recent china/India border incidence.

- definitely watch anything Israel - Iran

- Pakistan internal politics

- Watch the finger pointing and accusation between the powers. Cause sooner or later it will turn into war by proxy, then hot war.

Then combine with al qaeda pattern of attack. or what taliban is doing.

you can almost sense what they gonna do next.

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