Who is correct on Iran?

"U.S. and European counterproliferation experts believe that Iran's centrifuge program has already produced enough low-enriched uranium, an essential precursor to the production of bomb-grade material, to provide feedstock to produce enough highly enriched uranium to make a bomb. However, that is an arduous and technically complicated process. Many U.S. and European experts say that Iran is still experiencing technical problems with centrifuges it would use to produce bomb-grade uranium, which could delay any Iranian bomb program for years.

An Obama administration official says that top policymakers are being told that there is no significant disagreement among U.S. intelligence agencies and experts about the latest assessments regarding Iran's nuclear effort. That may encourage the White House's efforts to continue to try to engage Iran in diplomatic dialogue, including discussion of Iran's nuclear ambitions."  Newsweek

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Dan Rather, the prize asset of HDtv, was on the Joe and Mika show today pushing his new "special" on the subject of Iran.  When asked the right programmed question, Rather solemnly pronounced that he has reached the conclusion that Iran is proceeding methodically toward deliverable nuclear weapons and opined that they could assemble a weapon "any time."  He said that he had been talking to "some people" who had convinced him that this is the truth.

Is it?

Who are these people to whom he spoke?  Did the owner of HDtv get him this access to these sources of information?  Are they American?  What does David Albright have to say about this?  What does Kyran Mish have to say about it?

It should be no secret now that a massive political warfare campaign is underway that is intended to push the United States into war with Iran. 

The truth matters, not the truthiness of Rather's production concerning Iran's capabilities and intentions, but the actual truth.  pl

 

Comments

[Bill Wade, NH]

The CIA declared in 2003 that Iran had abandoned their nuclear weapons program and we haven't heard a thing from them since, perhaps it's time for the CIA to pipe up again.

[J]

Colonel,

Israeli government supplying 'kooked' intel in the Iraq WMD fiasco intentionally pushing the U.S. into an unnecessary Iraq war,showed themselves to be no friend or ally. Once again Israel is doing the same regarding Iran. Israel is intentionally lying regarding Iran. Israel being fearful or not regarding Iraq and/or Iran is an Israeli affair and should never/have never involved our U.S..

Once again Israel is showing they don't care how many American military and intelligence personnel die/are sacrificed on the altar of Israeli security, just as long as their selfish self-centered Israeli objectives are achieved.

It's time to pull the plug on the annual $15-20 Billion U.S. economic/trade/military aid to Israel.

Iran is no threat to our U.S., and that should be the base line -- how does it affect the U.S., not how does it affect a foreign power!

[Cieran]

I'll take the bait, Colonel!

What I have to say about it is this: every technological task looks really easy to those who don't have to sweat the engineering details. And Dan Rather has no idea how complicated this can get. So until Mr. Rather earns a Ph.D. in physics, he should just STFU.

What science has to say includes these:

--enriching LEU to HEU is a lot harder than it looks. The metallurgy alone is intractable, as radioactivity is one of the best ways to degrade metals, and HEU is mighty radioactive!

--once you have enough HEU, you still have to fabricate a weapon you trust will work (it's poor form to fire away at your enemies and then discover that your bullets are all duds). That means you gotta worry about testing the device.

--an assembly weapon can be fabricated from HEU and potentially deployed without testing, but good luck carrying it on a missile.

-- an implosion weapon could be engineered to fit on a missile, but would need testing before deployment (e.g., the U.S. tested the Fat Man design in the Trinity test a few weeks before Nagasaki). Failing to test this kind of design is incredibly risky, especially when various neighboring nations have plenty of their own nuclear weapons.

What I find most ironic about this war drumbeat is that the #1 sanction proposed for use against Iran is to embargo gasoline supplies imported by Iran. Since refining gasoline is an infinitely simpler engineering process than "refining" HEU, why do we believe that an oil-rich country that can't make enough gasoline for its own citizens is about to assemble an arsenal of nuclear weapons?

Is there uncertainty involved here? Surely there is. But unless we are to believe that one of the world's oldest civilizations has suddenly developed a collective death wish, it's hard to imagine that Iranian nuclear programs are oriented towards anything more than the obvious, i.e., a near-term form of electricity, and a long-term deterrent capability.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

"It should be no secret now that a massive political warfare campaign is underway that is intended to push the United States into war with Iran. The truth matters..."

Indeed. The truth is that the Israel Lobby influences at least 75% of the votes in Congress, constantly pressures the White House, and penetrates the executive branch and its departments.

Given ownership patterns, the US media print and electronic is Israeli friendly to say the least. Gentile journalists make adjustments on "taboo" topics so as to maintain their careers by being Israel friendly.

Are we looking at a replay of Suez 1956?

1.) Iranian leaders as the "Hitler" figure...just as Nasser was the Hitler figure for the European propaganda (British and French specifically) per Suez.

2.) Europeans raising the Iran WMD thing. We can recall the British "dodgy dossier" per Iraq which was closely coordinated with Israeli entitites. Nasser as a threat to the "West" etc...(or was that just French and British colonialism.) Presumably the Europeans are coordinating with the Israelis on these "intelligence"/black propaganda ops against Iran. Given the US media such black ops are a "cakewalk" as the Rather thing indicates.

3.) Use of Israel to strike first against Nasser allowing the British and French to come in under Israeli political cover. The "Hitler" stuff to create sympathy for Israel and thus public support for the Suez attack in Britain and France.

Let's say that the US intelligence community assesses that US involvement in an attack on Iran would be counterproductive over the near and long term.

But let's say that there are those in the world who wish to entrap the US and weaken it so as to improve their own relative power position(s).

Thus, one might argue that Europe (UK, France, and those whining about Iran) would like to see the US dragged into still another conflict in the Middle East. Teaming up with the Israelis, the Europeans (British, French, etal.) do a Suez with a twist. Israel does the first strike or something to trigger the conflict, then the US (NOT the clever Europeans) comes in to defend Israel and to continue the attack on Iran. The Russians gloat, the Chinese get nervous about their dollar-denominated holdings but take a pass, the Japanese take a pass.

Are there not some rather significant counterintelligence issues here? And I do not mean just with respect to Israeli influence in the US as we saw with the AIPAC case/Franklin etc.

For example, what is the real story with Jane Marriott -- Holbrookes little helper -- who David Habakkuk has just identified for us as a participant in the British "dodgy dossier" (falsified WMD scare stuff) matter which supported Blair's desire (thus British policy) for war in Iraq.

How about other similar penetrations of the current Administration? Are those foreign COIN specialists --like the one from Australia -- who are advising the US in effect agents provocateurs?

If the Europeans would like to go to war with Iran they should simply join in the Israeli attack and suffer the consequences. Meanwhile, we can as did the Eisenhower Administration express outrage and so on.

For Suez 1956, one might consult: Keith Kyle, Suez. Britain's End of Empire in the Middle East (London: IB Tauris, 2003).

[Thomas]

Will turcopolier push aside his misgivings of the MSM and take them on?

[confusedponderer]

Rather's statement is in contradiction to the U.S. intelligence community reporting to the White House that Iran has not restarted its nuclear-weapons development program. [Link]

[N. M. Salamon]

Colonel:
An interesting take on this issue:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KI18Ak01.html

IMO that there will be no war,
1.,as the consequences are too dire in case of the unforseen
2., China, a VETO holder, depends on Iranian oil to about 2 m barrels/day.
3., Russia does not want a war on her borders [also a Veto holder].
4., Possible dissolvance of NATO if any more soldiers are demanded for a 3rd war of choice [or is it 4th after Somalia?].
5., Any major economic upheaval from such a war would put paid to USA economy, whose dependence on foreign oil has no end.
4., All the major creditors of USA, China, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, EU nations need uninterrupted oil supply. While Aipec might not worry about such matters [being essentially a foreign agent], it should be presumed that there are adults in other offices of USA, President, Sec Def, and a few others.

Gl with the negotiations!

[turcopolier]

CP

That is correct. Pl

[Brett J]

News-reporting, or News-making, Dan? I suppose wars look better on HDtv than standard definition.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

Another way to look at this matter would be to consider the mindset of the war party. This is taking into consideration that the US war party is composed for foreign elements as well as US elements. The US elements are led by the plutocracy.

For the sake of argument, we could say there are two basic elements: 1) designing men and women and 2) stupid and interested endorsers.

In the designing men and women camp we might further break down the list into: 1) those who are in effect foreign agents of influence and 2) interested endorsers.

In the first group of designing men and women we would find the "pro Israel" types liked closely to Israel itself. But we would also find some who would be linked to other foreign countries and transnational interests.

In the second group of designing men and women we would find those simply interested in careers and financial benefit.

The problem for the war party is a rather simple one:

How do you move the US into a war with Iran and/or more military activity in Af-Paky if there are still patriotic souls in US institutions such as the intelligence community, law enforcement community, and so on.

Congress is already bought so it is not a problem. The generals aren't really a problem any more as there are no more Marshalls and many of the retired ones are raking it in via their association with the multibillion dollar war contracting industry. Upcoming officers note this and are looking for the gravy train after they put in their 20. One can argue the present US military is corrupt down to the captain level....careerism and etc. Why is COIN so popular? It's the ticket to the gravy train.

It is the residual patriotic elements in our federal (and state and local) institutions -- particularly intelligence and law enforcement -- who pose a problem for the war party.

These patriotic elements would advise against more foreign war we can posit. Law enforcement would emphasize domestic threats from organized crime, terrorists, foreign gangs etc. Counterintelligence pressure could result in arrests and trials of foreign agents of influence as well as spies who are in the war party or who are fellow travellers.

So the war party has to deal with the problem of the institutions and residual patriotic elements in them. One way is the Chas. Freeman treatment to send a message to everyone. We saw how the Bush-Cheney Administration stuffed the institutions with Neocons and etc. Now they are being stuffed with the Liberal Imperialist crowd whom the Neocons support anyways.

But to undermine still further any institutional resistance to the war party, the massive information/black ops campaign through the pro-Israel US media provides a good "active measure."

So the Dan Rather project can be seen in this context. I wonder how much he is being paid for the program...more than 30 pieces of silver I should think.

[Mark Stuart]

Cieran:

Did you really mean that Rather should "just STFU." or that he should STUFF it?

CP:
Rather's statement is in contradiction to the U.S. intelligence community reporting to the White House that Iran has not restarted its nuclear-weapons development program.

And Colonel Lang tells us: that is correct.

But is that the truth?

ms.

[WILL]

Rather, presumably a typewriter man from way back, did not have the smarts to tell proportional typeface from evenly spaced courier in the Dubya National Guard fiasco story on 60 minutes. Come On. Dan Rather has no credibility on anything!!! The man is an imbecile.

[frank durkee]

Note the report of Ehud Barak that "Iran obtaining a nucluer weapon is not an existential crisis for isreal in his judgement". and the "secret" IEA addendum stating that they opine tha Iran is pursuing a weapons program.

[Jose]

Perfect timing, day after the Goldstone Report and attributed to "some people".

[N. M. Salamon]

An interesting analysis of the nuclear issue from a Tehran prof who als has positions in USA think thanks:

http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/wopj.2009.26.3.21?cookieSet=1

Enjoy

[Cieran]

J:

It's time to pull the plug on the annual $15-20 Billion U.S. economic/trade/military aid to Israel.

If Israel possesses nuclear weapons (and there's every reason to believe that they do), then that U.S. aid is arguably illegal under the provisions of the Symington Amendment.

So whether it's time to pull the plug or not, it may be the law to do so...

[Charles I]

In the last week, I have heard radio news reports of Iran's Supreme Leader reiterating the Fatwa against the use of nuclear weapons(vs deployment?).

Today I heard in the car SecDef Gates reported stating Iranian ICBM's, i.e. delivery capacity is a mite father off than stated in some quarters so we all can, should, relax.

Clifford I sure hope that you're wrong, or that as Krulak writes in Para 2 of his letter above, about a proper Afghani surge, there's not enough capacity left to pull the Israeli's chestnuts from the fire.

[curious]

my quick take.

- Basic nuclear weapon technology is not very high tech. It's 50's technology. (single stage 20kt device) Any sufficiently industrialized country will be able to achieve it. Uranium itself is not the rarest metal. And nuclear power plant does have its appeal. Iran will keep their nuke, just as Pakistan and Israel defend their nuke.

- Time to review the childish relationship between US and Iran. Because this conflict involved Israel/Hezbollah/Palestine And Israel will escalate to keep US engaged or they are toast. Israel has zero ability to sustain their occupation and military policy if US decide to change middle east policy. Israel is not willingn to play positive role. At this moment there is enough proof that they are as pernicous as apartheid regime. Elemination of the regime is the only answer. The formation of new Israel by global pressure is the only answer. 50 yrs is enough time to go beyond reasonable doubt what Israel current regime is all about. If current path continues, US will be involved in massive regional nuclear war in less than 2 decades.

- in the next 3 yrs at least global economy cannot take any conflict that can drive up oil price. prolonged Japan style recession is very real for the US.

- US is involved in 2 wars on Iran borders. (Iraq, Afghanistan) On top of fully supporting what Israel is doing. That fact alone would justify Iran to take US as serious hostile power. And nuclear is logical strategy for the Iranian to make sure any attack will be exponentially expensive (eg. nuking Kuwait port with 20kt weapon will very much grind US oil economy a halt and pin 100K US troop in Iraq with no easy supply line.)

Nuking khyber pass does same thing minus the oil effect. These two doesn't need missile to pull to be very effective strategic weapon.

- Israel getting nuked? It's their problem with Iran. Their nasty behavior determine world tolerant toward what they do. US cannot afford keep supporting Israel crime without itself being isolated from the world.

- Failure to isolate Iran oil industry and quickly weakening US dollar are a strong sign that the global geopolitics are realigning. The post WWII era is finally over. All major powers has recovered and national influence between major power is quickly equalize. Russia and China will defend their national interest fiercely. Japan and Germany will end US occupation and be more independent in term of international politics and economy. NATO will not play post WWII role anymore.

- The next major economic realignment will involved destruction of US dollar as global reserve currency. If that happens, than entire US fiscal policy then will have to answer to global market pricing. (oil, commodity, transportation cost)

Bottom line: conflict with Iran is not just another middle east misadventure, it will greatly accelerate global geopolitical realignment, since it's connected to oil price, and Russia/China insterest in central asia.

It's not going to be $150/barrel oil or if Russia will supply S-300. It will be a question of US putting troop in Israel and go to regional nuclear war that will destroy all major oil facilities in the middle east. It will be a question how to move around 300K troops around the entire length of Asia. From Israel all the way to western china.

[HMV]

Colonel:

Enriching enough uranium to make bombs requires a lot of electricity. Oak Ridge, for example, used 20 per cent more electricity than the entire city of New York at one point during the Manhattan Project.

Granting that such usage wouldn't stand out as much today, surely the US and Israeli governments have the surveillance capacity to tell whether or not some hidden/undeclared site within Iran is using this kind of enormous quantity of electricity. Until one of the two governments produces hard technical evidence of this sort, I'll tend to think that international inspectors, who say there isn't much cause for concern, are seeing everything there is to be seen. I'll also take it that the 'intelligence sources' that crop up in news reports making wild claims are, at best, imagining things that don't exist.

[DGH, Seattle]

Dan Rather got his new approved ranking with his comeuppance. This ranking gives him authority that would be missing if he had not had his comeuppance. Now we can trust him because the rightside screamers brought him down. Simple isn't it?
Anyway I've always covered my suspenders.

[A. Allen]

Some time back HRC gave a speech that I think was very telling of this Adminstration's true position. Here it is -- http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/23/world/asia/23diplo.html?_r=1&bl&ex=1248408000&en=26edfbfbe564636f&ei=5087. In it she speaks of the need for defensive shield in the event of a nuclear Iran. At the time I interpreted her comments as a signal to Israel that we would not engage in agression on their behalf.

I too do not believe the war talk will lead to anything. Common sense will prevail. This is all, of course, entirely ludicrous, as the MAD doctrine applies, if only the parties can be relied on to act rationally. My hunch is that the leadership of Iran is far more rational than the hot-heads/cynics that (mis-)lead Israel.

[confusedponderer]

I put Rather's remark in context of this:
Iran attack: Israel ex-min sees end-yr deadline
and especially this:
US-Iran Talks Start October 1.

My hunch is that the people who persuaded Rather on the Iranian Menace, if he needed persuasion, oppose Obama's talks with Iran, which Bill Kristol called "Obama’s message of weakness."

That of course only makes sense under the premise that after all, Iran is evil, and undoubtedly pursues nukes - so Obama just talking with them without preconditions, shows great weakness in face of evil. We don't negotiate with evil, we defeat it! as one member of the last administration famously quipped. The spirit is still there, Iraq notwithstanding.

Israeli fulminations over the dire threat posed by Iran are aimed on exerting pressure on the US. It is their variation of the 'Madman doctrine': The threat is dire, and if you don't accommodate us, and quickly, we might just do something real crazy'. If the talks with Iran fail, all the better for them, They'll do their very best to facilitate failure.

[William R. Cumming]

By the way how is Dan's lawsuit doing or did I miss out on something? Is Dan showing that like the American INTEL community his reliance on a "Curve Ball" will reveal truths? Is the truth or reality just what most believe? The one solid piece of INTEL about Iran we do have is that they have been digging, digging, digging underground since 1979 usually with help of the Germans and their digging technology [still the world's best as many NAZI underground facilities not known about until well after WWII]! So the reality is that without penetration by whatsoever means of these facilities many unknown to IAEA there is no basis upon which we (US) can know the truth. Since neither Israel nor the US has boots on the ground envisioned for Iran then this dog's day [IRANs WMD efforts] is done and unless you have those 100 mech infantry divisions ready to seize and hold one of the world's largest countries by geography and demographics this is not going to work out for anti-proliferation efforts. Oh well maybe we can stop Venezuela from WMDs!

[LeaNder]

Hmm? CP? MS?

Any thoughts on the Goldstone UN report, Colonel?

Can the US ever allow a precedent? So why not bury the "antisemitic UN" and its report under more war. To set the records straight: The right of the stronger and whoever sides with him is beyond law?

Onward weary soldiers against the Muslim threat, Islam ante portas. Pan-Islamism threatening Europe, the US and the bastion of the righteous in the ME?

This is http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/17/missile-defence-shield-barack-obama>good news.

[Clifford Kiracofe]

"a massive political warfare campaign"

Yes indeed, and it needs to be examined closely. Per this issue the intrepid and well informed Raimundo casts light on the cast of characters. Again one might conclude there are some significant counterintelligence issues with respect to the war party...

This time on BPC (Bipartisan Center) yet another Washington DC paper mill:

"The Bloomberg piece attributes the BPC’s report on Iran to former Democratic Senator Chuck Robb, of Virginia, Republican Dan Coats, former Senator from Indiana, and retired Gen. Charles Walk, former deputy commander of the US European command. But as Jim Lobe, of IPS News Service, points out (here and here), the real authors were Makovsky and Michael Rubin, whose ideological orientation may indeed be "bipartisan" – after all, the neocons infest both parties – but who very definitely have an ideological axe to grind.

"Makovsky is supposed to be some sort of expert on the oil industry, which is the capacity he served in for the Office of Special Plans – an odd job for someone whose doctorate is in history, and has no experience working in the energy industry. His older brother, David, is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy – the "thinktank" wing of AIPAC, the leading pro-Israel lobby in the US. He once worked for Sen. John Danforth, after which he moved to Israel, where he intended to pursue a career as an Israeli diplomat (without, however, giving up his US citizenship), after serving in the Israeli military." and etc.
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2009/09/17/the-worms-in-the-apple/

General Wald's piece in the Wall Street Journal at:
http://online.wsj.com/article/
SB10001424052970204908604574332753028699432.html

Wiki on Wald:
"General Wald, director and senior advisor to the Aerospace & Defense Industry for Deloitte LLP, is responsible for providing senior leadership in strategy and relationships with defense contractors and Department of Defense (DOD) program executives. He is a subject matter specialist in weapons procurement and deployment, counter terrorism, national, energy and international security policy. Prior to joining Deloitte, General Wald was the Vice President, International Programs for L-3 Communications Corporation, based in Washington D.C."...