"U-turn puts Hezbollah in the driving seat" - Moubayad

"Those who rejoiced at the election results in Lebanon on June 7 had a big surprise this week, as the tables seemed to turn on the pro-Western coalition in favor of the Hezbollah-led opposition, and Damascus."  Moubayad 

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Walid Jumblatt is moving away from the Jeff Feltman (and US) backed 14 March movement in Lebanon and toward the "evil" Syria and Iran backing 8 March movement.  Translation:  If he goes all the way into a political alliance with the "8ers," this will effectively reverse the Lebanese parliamentary election held in June.

Why is the Druze enigma taking his tribesmen in this direction?  Wadih! (Clear!)  He sees that Syria's position is improving vis a vis the US and in that context the obvious paramilitary strength of Hizbullah mandates a change in his posture.

There will be consternation in Israel over this.  pl

 

Comments

[Abu Sinan]

I just have to shake my head at Jumblatt. It would be hard to find more of a political opportunist in human history than this guy.

March 14th need not worry, if the wind blows in the opposite direction they'll find the Druze leader walking in their direction again!

[R Whitman]

I remember the Israelis saying many years ago that the Druse always ally themselves to the strongest political power in the area. Is this true here??

[J]

Jumblatt's survival instincts coming out eh? Wonder how long it will be before the Israeli Mossad puts him on one of their 'hit lists' and Jumblatt will be just another notch in their Lebanon assassinations' belt?

[William R. Cumming]

Let's develop a list of small countries that create much of the world's disorder and give rankings!

Certainly, Lebanon in top ten but what if worse case occurred (this would also be Israeli worse case) and solid governing coalition showed up in Lebanon?

[Different Clue]

Perhaps Jumblatt moved now rather than waiting further so that he could be seen to be influencing an outcome rather than just recognizing the inevitable outcome after the fact. If so; he may enhance his political standing as holding the "balance of power" between contesting sides and his ability to turn the slight-minority side into the slight-majority side by joining it.
This would enhance the future value of the Druze bloc as a bloc to have on one's side for rounding out one's majority. Such value might outlive Jumblatt's own career in active politics. Would that achievement make Jumblatt a Druze tribal statesman to be remembered by the Druze for decades or longer?

This reminds me of articles and comment threads about Lebanon I read
a couple-few years ago. I remember offering the suggestion that the forming of the Iriquois League on the principles of the white roots of the Tree of Peace might offer the peoples of Lebanon something to study for ideas on a better-functioning national polity because it was so removed from any of them that none of them would risk being favored or disfavored by it.
Mo thought it was interesting but probably not workable or applicable, and Babak Makkinejad thought
it and especially Lester Pearson's "two founding Canadian peoples" concept was just a pipedream. But I still wonder.

Whatever stable political culture system emerges in Lebanon will have
to be based in the facts of Lebanese political culture going forward. To this purely lay observer it looks like the Lebanese leadership classes pursue the making and unmaking of evershifting interfactional alliances as an endless sport; only fun as long as it can continue. The tables
always turn, the plates are turning in place upon the tables, the chairs turn around the room. If this is Lebanon's political future; is there a way for the faction leaders to agree
on a few basic things which would benefit Lebanon at large in such a way as to allow a sharing of that benefit among all the factions and leaders?

And will the faction-leader system be able to adjust to the younger people
who are becoming semi-post-factional and who thought their votes were being cast for a particular direction for the country overall?