Khamenei is likely to go away.

My view of the Iran situation is that the particular 'ulema/pasdaran/basiij clique now governing Iran is digging a grave for itself with each passing day of unwillingness to compromise, share power or respect the collective right of the Iranians to express their discontent.  Beneath the surface, the 'ulema, the business commmunity and many Iranians are hardeniing in their attitude towards the ruling apparat.  I think there is likely to be a sine curve of resistance that fluctuates between relative quiet and street action.   This will eventually either eliminate this clique or cause a massive change in its policies.  I am not necessarily talking about an end to vilayat e faqih, but there is likely to be a change in the manner of application of this doctrine.

I think Obama is doing the right thing in expressing support for the demonstraters while keeping some distance from them.  Since I  am who I am, I would discreetly provide funds for the opposition, but, that's me. 

Most importantly, the action of the Iranian people has made it virtually impossible for the war party here and in Israel to succeed in dragging us into another one of their adventures.

In the meantime, there is something wonderful happening in re Syria.  pl

Comments

[Bill Wade, NH, USA]

I think the immediate losers will wind up being Shah Jr and his Israeli backers, the mainstream media - all their coverage and commentary has backfired as now it's going to be a very difficult "sell" to attack Iran and it's "Freedom Fighters" and then eventually the hard-liners in Iran.

[J]

Colonel,

With Mousavi id'd as the 'Butcher Of Beirut' with American blood on his personal Mousavi hands, how do you think that D.C. will handle Mousavi if he were to wrangle the Iranian Prez position?

[Clifford Kiracofe]

"Most importantly, the action of the Iranian people has made it virtually impossible for the war party here and in Israel to succede in dragging us into another one of ther adventures."

Hopefuly the war party here and in Israel is also digging its own grave, although like Dracula they will be back from time to time.

Reporting out of Iran suggests that some adjustments in the structure and operations of the Islamic Republic might be coming. This is not the same as the end of the Islamic Republic itself. At the state to state level, we will still be dealing with the Islamic Republic although the offices and chief officers might be changed.

On the other hand, it is quite clear that a very large number of Iranians are fed up with certain aspects of their present situation.

Western media only presented what they had easy access to...metropolitan middle class Tehran. What about the unrest and discontent in the working class areas? How widespread is this? Probably more than one would think given the disintegration of the economy and the unemployment issues etc.

[Curious]

This is amazing. I finally understand how terrible war actually started. The whole "YB Yeats" thing.

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;

-------------

Mousavi clearly is weak and has lost control. his follower falls apart and turn into angry mob demanding blood and martyrdom. Who knows who controls their communication channel and what orders enter the communication those communication channel.

Iranian students. Blind of idealism, They don't know the difference between burning a building or burning the country and the people along with it. Good luck explaining that in the future.

Iranian status quo. Years of cutting corner, simple thuggery, ideological lies, and massive group think finally strangled everything. I don't even know anymore, if they know what to do but lack conviction to bear the political cost, or simply flailing around. Their situation is not unique and the solutions are all over the place. It's basic political dissatisfaction, turns into riot, which in turn coopted by external power. Basic incompetent.

US policy, biggest CYA, petty power play, grandiose statements and lies. This is a replay of "Iraq WMD" all over again. Clever schemes, media play, finally people die, and everybody plays dumb while somebody has to clean up the mess.

Amazing.

My prediction:
- Iran successfully destabilize
- Nobody really controls that place after the coup and who knows where all those military technology will go.
- We will be tangled in massive central asia conflict within a decade. China/Russia.
- Dollar destabilization, following twin deficit.

------

Bottom line. There are too many things going wrong in Tehran street. Too many people trying to put on blood splattering TV show. And the world WILL get that show.

But it won't end like how the clever planners think event will unfold.

[BT]

PL:

I really enjoy your blog. I am a neo-pinko who lives in California (Santa Monica no less), and I find the analysis and opinions here to be very candid informed and intelligent.

Keep it up!

BT

[Mr. R]

A retreat under fire is one of the more dangerous maneuvers in war and the same goes in politics, particularly when faced with Coloured-Revolutionaries who are trained to exploit such openings and escalate demands. Khamenei is playing this very well. His sermon last Friday has had its desired effect. The dispute, he says, must be dealt with through official channels and institutions and nowhere else. To do otherwise is to start the escalating demand game outside the structure of the law, and a recognition that those hurling mud have legitimacy to dictate terms. Khamenei has most of the power structure on his side, he has the winning hand right now. They are extending the examination period for checking the vote because of irregularities. Khamenei has said that he is of the opinion that irregularities are insufficient to change the vote... Some might say he shouldn't have given this opinion and let this process end before pronouncing such, but then again the gap between the candidates is quite large and they'd have to find pretty dramatic fraud to change the results. Musavi has been in cobwebs for twenty years - he really was not that strong a candidate and Ahmadinejad appeals to many who see corruption in the old guard, that guard of which Musavi is a part.

[arbogast]

What's happening in Syria?

There's a monastery there that is apparently a great place. In the mountains. That's all I know.

[Mark Stuart]

Colonel Sir:

Isn't financing and propping up the pro-Mousavi opposition just simply delaying the crumbling of a system that refuses, no matter who is in power, to tackle one of the major spoiler of any democracy: corruption? and if it is, then at what cost in and for the future of our security in the region?

MS

[Matthew]

Col: You say: "Most importantly, the action of the Iranian people has made it virtually impossible for the war party here and in Israel to succede in dragging us into another one of ther adventures."

The ironic cross pollination of issues has begun. See http://www.philipweiss.org/mondoweiss/2009/06/iranian-intifada-is-celebrated-in-the-us-while-palestinians-are-still-ignored.html

You know, the neo-cons didn't want to see this linkage.

[N. M. Salamon]

Colonel:

For what it is worth, I think you are already contributing to the protest through your Governemnt's attempts to destabilize IRAn [ Mr Bush's executive Directive was no countermanded by Mr. Obama, Pakistani Officer indicated that other funds [$400 million were also used in the near past from Uncle Sam].

From the news in MSM and otherwise [see cole etc] this seems to be a protest by the middle and upper classes againt the present regime. Thy do not appear to have the backing of the masses or the army, which is necessary for any meaningful change [see the fall of the Shah]. So whatever happends in the next few days months, Mr. Obama will have to deal with the Iranian government, which does not appear to be in any danger of changing.

It is, of course, a difficult postion for the USA and Mr. Obama, for the attempted destabilization of IRan does not endear the Irani Government to look kindly at USA. No there will be no war, as the world can not stand a probable oil disruption, one one hand, and since Russia and China among others has recognized the present government, there is no hope of any fancy UN resolution.

[JoeC]

It is most interesting to see Col Lang and Pepe Escobar at AsiaTimes Online “on the same page” about something in the Middle East!

See -

Iran's streets are lost, but hope returns
By Pepe Escobar

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF25Ak02.html

[Spaniel]

COL Lang,

Is it safe to assume the "good news from Syria" you speak of is the opening of the US embassy?

[Dave of Maryland]

If the revolution succeeds - which I, like others who have posted, doubt - I don't think that will make the warmongers go away. They want their war too much to worry about details.

If the revolution fails, that would seem to make immediate war an imperative.

Heads, the neo-cons win.

Tails, the neo-cons win.

Who put these guys in charge of the world, anyway?

[Peter]

Over the last several years, the American government has directed hundreds of millions of dollars towards the goal of destabilizing Iran, and has openly talked of working to forment a revolution.

The idea that the current opposition hasn't benefited from these funds defies belief.

[curious]

Interesting. (true/not true?)

http://tehranbroadcast.com/Secret-negotiations-between-the.html

According to unconfirmed news, the British Defense Secretary has secretly traveled to Tehran on Sunday, via a commercial Emirates flight from Dubai. This secret trip has lasted one day, during which the British Minister has attended a joint meeting with Dr. Velayati, Khamenei’s advisor in foreign affairs, Manuchehr Mottaki, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Asghar Mir-Hejazi, Head of the Leader’s Intelligence and Security Office, and Mohammadi Golpaygani, Head of the Leader’s Office.

In this meeting, the following requests have been made by Ali Khamenei’s representatives:

1. The UK must stop its moral support for the protests and demonstrations in Iran.

2. BBC must stop or tone down its coverage of the election fallout and ensuing upheavals in Iran.

3. The UK must lift the freeze on $1.6 billion Iranian assets in Britain. These assets were frozen in Britain under international sanctions imposed over Tehran’s nuclear program on Thursday, June 18. According to our sources, the assets belong to the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

[zanzibar]

For the first time in a long time I watched corporate media while at the gym - Kyra's interview of David Gergen.

Kyra was putting out the bait that shouldn't there be an intervention to prevent genocide. Gergen went for that hook and stated that we can't do it unilaterally but under the auspices of the UN. Essentially calling for the "blue helmets" to lead the charge. He also mentioned that Joe Lieberman is bringing up a bill that would penalize any company that sells gasoline to Iran.

So it looks like the plan would be to ratchet up the pressure. What happens to Iran's support to the Iraqi Shia parties and to Hizballah and Hamas? Does that go with regime change?

[readerOfTeaLeaves]

Col Lang, your description of the 'sine curve' of quiet-action-quiet-action is the best description of what appears to be unfolding. IMHO, that's all to the good if it gives people time to adapt without outright civil war.

Also agree, and 'tis a wonder to behold, that after what those of us in the US and EU and other interested onlookers have seen the past two weeks, the war party -- in US or elsewhere -- has lost their 'demon'. The Iranians now look human; in some cases, all too bloody, and wrenchingly human.

The other surprise for an onlooker like myself has been to see how moving Moussavi's messages have been; at least the English translations that I've seen are articulate, humble, and give the sense that some kind of Iranian cultural Rubicon has been crossed. (I'm in no way qualified to spot when or where it occurred, but one senses that even Moussavi never expected things to unfold this way.)

Sadly, it appears that the cultural and demographic divide in Iran has become so vast that the ulema/basiji clique genuinely does not comprehend what it's up against. I don't know much about Islam, but it seems exceedingly unlikely that it advocates RoboCop, truncheon wielding thugs.

Appreciate your insights very much.

[curious]

This is some weird shit. Is this Scowcroft version of quickly stabilizing situation in Iran and subduing the protestors? what the he...

Everybody knows there are tons of operatives in Iran. The question is why this semi official acknowledgement? (part of bargain?)

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2009/06/2009624225744811593.html

US 'has agents working inside Iran'

The US has intelligence agents in Iran but it is not clear if they are providing help to the protest movement there, a former US national security adviser has told Al Jazeera.

Brent Scowcroft said on Wednesday that "of course" the US had agents in Iran amid the ongoing pressure against the Iranian government by protesters opposed to the official result of its presidential election.

But he added that he had no idea whether US agents had provided help to the opposition movement in Iran, which claims that the authorities rigged the June 12 election in favour of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the incumbent president.

[WILL]

from the moustachioed ZionKon NYT columnist Tom Friedman- an admission that the KSA (Saudis) brought down the Evil Empire. He never stated the obvious reason- blowback for the Invasion of Afghanistan.

"In a 2006 speech entitled “The Collapse of an Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia,” Yegor Gaidar, a deputy prime minister of Russia in the early 1990s, noted that “the timeline of the collapse of the Soviet Union can be traced to Sept. 13, 1985. On this date, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani, the minister of oil of Saudi Arabia, declared that the monarchy had decided to alter its oil policy radically. The Saudis stopped protecting oil prices, and Saudi Arabia quickly regained its share in the world market.

“During the next six months,” added Gaidar, “oil production in Saudi Arabia increased fourfold, while oil prices collapsed by approximately the same amount in real terms. As a result, the Soviet Union lost approximately $20 billion per year, money without which the country simply could not survive."

Eventually Bibi, the Israeli Firsters, and the NeoKon Likudniks thru blindness on Palestine will put us in the same position w/ respect to the petro-states as the Soviets which have now vanished from the pages of time.

[eakens]

"Most importantly, the action of the Iranian people has made it virtually impossible for the war party here and in Israel to succeed in dragging us into another one of their adventures."

versus

"Most importantly, the action of the Iranian government has made it entirely possible for the war party here and in Israel to succeed in dragging us into another one of their adventures."

Khamenei needs to go away, otherwise the neocon war-mongers will have a stronger argument as to why Iran must be stopped. The government of Iran is clearly brutal and ruthless, and cannot be trusted, because if this is what they do to their own people, imagine what they would do to Israel.

That is what is being sold to the populace here today.

[William P. Fitzgerald III]

Pat Lang,

He will go away. Everyone does, sooner or later. I don't, however think that the Islamic Republic is going anywhere. It seems to me that the main and most germane point of your post is that the election brouhaha will de-rail Israeli schemes to sufficiently demonize Iran so as to embroil the U.S. in a war with that country.

Meanwhile, hyperbole is the order of the day, including reference to genocide. As for being "brutal, ruthless, oppressive, and cruel" to one's political or ethnic opposition, Iran seems to have a rather long way to go to catch up to such American allies/client states/stooges as Argentina, Chile, Israel, Guatemala and so forth.

WPFIII

[Abu Sinan]

Like an Iranian-American journalist said the other night on NPR, it is a case of bad or worse. There is no good side in Iran.

The opposition is backed and funded by Rafsanjani and his family who are probably one of the most corrupt families on the face of the earth.

[Babak Makkinejad]

readerOfTeaLeaves:

Would a group of Americans from rural Alabama tolerate a group of Americans from the Upper East Side (of New York City) to overthrow the Government of the United States?

[Patrick Lang]

WPF

"such American allies/client states/stooges as Argentina, Chile, Israel, Guatemala and so forth."

Reflexive lefty drivel. Our "allies and stooges?" you obviously have never had to actually deal with countries like those. pl

[Patrick Lang]

Babak

You increasingly sound like an operative of the Iranian state. pl