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13 June 2009

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johnf

Your extremely pessimistic analysis might be right.

But there's also the possibility that Ahmadinejad walks in to see Khamenei with a great big smile on his face and Khamenei says "Just the guy I want to see. You're just the person I need, sitting on a personnal victory that no one can undermine, to push through my peace plans with the West."

Obama might be thinking just the same with Netanyahu.

In Northern Ireland peace only came when the two really hardline men, Paisley and Adams, finally sat down in the same room.

If liberals agree a peace, the right can always undermine it. If rightists agree it, then any attempt to undermine it only destroys themselves.

curious

Iran is going Ukraine full blown or belarus.

ahmadinejad has an option, come down very hard (ala Burma's junta) or resign. Or reach out to the student faction.

If he does come down hard, he has to find the source and channel that drive the street protest.

Rafsanjani is afraid now. (he was accused of corruption. which probably he is, since he is the richest man in Iran.)

But it's all students and female voters. Ahmadinejat obviously didn't get them.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/6/13/742004/-Breaking:-Rafsanjani-Resigns,-Iranian-Police-Fleeing-from-DemonstratorsVideo

Rafsanjani has resigned all duties in protest to Supreme Leader Khamenei's endorsement of Ahmadinejad as winner of yesterday's election.

Josh

Please look up the correct translation of the Farsi quote by Khomeini that has been misappropriated to Ahmadinejad - there is no such phrasing as "wipe off the face" - it is really much closer to "...the occupation regime over Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time..."

curious

from the way it looks, if things aren't calming down by thursday, start buying oil future.
It will hit $90- $120 in the blink of an eye.

There is no such thing as economic recovery, the stimulus is dead.

If the iranian goes completely bonker, they will shut everything down and start preparing trade war, then real war.

Watch intel movement in china and russia. Might as well watch how they move military asset too. Central asian game is about to change a great deal.

Whatever comes out of this green revolution. It wont be nice.

Walter

The position of Western governments has never made sense to me. Ahmadinajad's position seems logical to me. Why should the Palestinians pay for the sins of the Germans? If the USA and England are so sympathetic to the Zionists, why do they not provide land in Idaho or Wales for them?

It seems like intellectual/moral dishonesty to denounce the position of Palestinians and their sympathizers.

My only conclusion is that Western governments do not want peace, they just want what they want.

Harper

Early report from on the ground in Tehran: There is widespread belief that this was massive fraud. Mousavi people were doing some very active polling, in the course of lining up their pollwatching and get out the vote operations, both in big cities and in rural areas. They were reporting, just on the eve of the elections, that Ahmadinejad was incapable of getting more than 14 million votes. So there had to be a big turnout--above 30 million votes--for Musavi to win. The official turnout numbers run between 30-34 million, the kind of big turnout that was going to benefit Musavi. The announcement of the winner was made at 1 AM, hours before the morning prayers, and by the time the sun rose, the police were out in force on the streets of Tehran. The problem the opposition faced, all along, is that a "parallel apparatus" to the clergy, including the IRGC, the Basij militia and the Martyrs Brigade have a tremendous vote fraud capability. You don't vote by precincts in Iran. You can vote anywhere, so vote padding is possible. But in this case, this "parallel apparatus" runs the Interior Ministry and control the poll and vote count apparatus. This looks like Chicago-style dumping one set of ballot boxes in the river, and replacing them with a different set.

The Supreme Leader Khamenei has declared that he accepts the outcome, but that is by no means the end of the story. Stay tuned for some nasty developments in the immediate hours and days ahead.

curious

Sianat az ara (Protectors of Votes) Iran' Election Commission, have called the result fraud and are calling for new election.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/6/13/742004/-Updated-III:-Breaking:-All-Telephone-Cut-Off-Teheran,-Mousavi-Arrested:-Rafsanjani-Resigns


Things are accelerating now. Ukraine it is.

curious

Update your wiki...wooo....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_House#United_States_and_Israel

F. William Engdahl notes Gene Sharp authored a text a basic how-to manual for the color revolutions From Dictatorship to Democracy was funded by the US Congress, NED and the Soros Foundations, to train people in and to study the theories of ‘non-violence as a form of warfare.’ Sharp had worked with NATO and the CIA over the years training operators in Burma, Lithuania, Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine to Taiwan, Venezuela and Iraq. Furthermore, Engdahl says Freedom House endorsed the text and gave it rave reviews. Engdahl argues that, "

in short virtually every regime which has been the target of a US-backed soft coup in the past twenty years has involved Freedom House, NED, Gene Sharp and usually, his associate, Col. Robert Helvey, a retired US Army intelligence specialist. Notably, Sharp was in Beijing two weeks before student demonstrations at Tiananmen Square in 1989. The Pentagon and US intelligence have refined the art of such soft coups to a fine level. RAND planners call it ‘swarming,’ referring to the swarms of youth, typically linked by SMS and web blogs, who can be mobilized on command to destabilize a target regime.

http://leopolis.blogspot.com/2004/12/pundits-cia-money-and-orange.html


The Yushchenko Mythos by Justin Raimondo was one article that attempted to set the record straight about the Orange Revolution, but missed the mark completely. Raimondo is an blogger and a pundit, not an analyst of Ukraine or a political scientist, so I will not spend too much time on his opinions. His point is that Yushchenko is not a democrat, but a “CIA stooge” funded by US organization and

…billionaire George Soros, who has his own interests in Ukraine and the former Soviet Union. According to the Ukrainian Center for Political and Economic Research (UCPER), a poll of the mostly pro-Yushchenko Ukrainian NGOs reveals that foreign sponsors pick up 60 percent of the tab, including: "'Vidrodzhenya' (Revival) sponsored by George Soros - 36.3%, 'Freedom House' (the U.S.) - 22.7%, 'Poland-America-Ukraine Cooperation Initiative' - 22.7%, USAID - 22.7%, National Endowment for Democracy (the U.S.) - 18.2%, the World Bank - 13.6% (the total percentage exceeding 100%, since the respondents often named several sponsors)." Ms. Timoshenko, who boasts of having a fleet of six jets at her disposal, no doubt picks up the rest…

-------

ok.

- insertion of operatives (check)
- "color" check
- facebook, cellphone, fax, email, students (check)
- NGO's (check) ..still can't find newbie politicians that is being propped.
- polarization (check)
- street protest (check)


This is going to end with one or two people die...at least.

worst case scenario, full blown crack in Iran government. (Why do they have guardian of revolution if it can't function? it's designed precisely for this type of event.)

Babak Makkinejad

Col. Lang:

After the war, then what?

Babak Makkinejad

All:

For the past four years of his presidency, Mr. Ahmadinejad had been criss-crossing Iran together with his cabinet ministers. He has visited every single Iranian province during the last 4 years and held meetings with the locals and conducted state business at provincial cities together with his cabinet. He has been doling out money and investments in the provinces. In effect, he had been campaigning for the last 4 years.

He also had consistently positioned himself as a humble, corruption-fighting man-servant of the Iranian people.

That he has been re-elected in a landslide is quite plausible given the activities I mentioned above.

I seriously doubt the allegations of wide-spread fraud and clearly Mr. Mousavi has a very respectable showing at 13 million votes.

I caution you all that Northern Tehran does not speak for Iran.

Simon

I have had problems with the Western media's coverage of the Iranian presidential election from the start. The certainty that change was coming always seemed like wishful thinking. From all reports Ahmadinejad has had strong support from the poor and rural population whose numbers are much higher than the young people and women who voted in Tehran. I have no doubt that there was some election fraud, but the confidence that Musavi won seems foolish.

Iran is not the Ukraine. If I had a dollar for every time someone predicted the end of the Islamic Republic, I would be a millionaire. The Iranians no matter how unsatisfied they are with their government are not any more likely to "rise up" against them any more than we are in this country.

swerv

Colonel:

Any chance of having Mr. Babak Makkinejad weigh in on this? I'd love to get his perspective.


Also Saad El-Hariri on the elections at :http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/12/AR2009061203452.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

Jose

Since the appointment of Dennis "the menace" Ross, any hope of real change in the Middle East was over.

Right before the Iranian elections, "the menace" published a book, "Myths, Illusions, and Peace: Finding a New Direction for America in the Middle East."

Here is the link from Amazon.com: http://www.amazon.com/Myths-Illusions-Peace-Finding-Direction/dp/0670020893/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1244925071&sr=1-1


Editorial Reviews
Product Description
Two experts debunk misconceptions about the Middle East and set clear-eyed policies for the future

Why has the United States consistently failed to achieve its strategic goals in the Middle East? According to Dennis Ross and David Makovsky, two of America’s leading experts on the region, it is because we have been laboring under false assumptions, or mythologies, about the nature and motivation of Middle East countries and their leaders. In Myths, Illusions, and Peace, the authors debunk these damaging fallacies, held by both the right and the left, and present a concise and far-reaching set of principles that will help America set an effective course of action in the region.

Among the myths that the authors show to be false and even dangerous is the idea that Israeli-Palestinian peace is the key to solving all the Middle East’s problems; that regime change is a prerequisite for peace and democracy; and that Iran’s leadership is immune from diplomatic and economic pressure.

These and other historic misunderstandings have generated years’ worth of failed policies and crippled America’s ability to make productive decisions in this volatile part of the world, a region that will hold the key to our security in the twenty-first century. Ross and Makovsky offer a critical rethinking of American perceptions at a time of great import and change.

About the Author
Dennis Ross is special advisor to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for the Gulf and Southwest Asia. He is the author of the bestselling The Missing Peace.

Analyst and former journalist David Makovsky is a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and the author of Making Peace with the PLO. - Amazon.com

Were we ever really serious about peace or just the same failed policies with better public relations?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/09/AR2009060903131.html

Could all this have had an impact on the election in Iran?

So, just because our guy lost, there had to be massive fraud?

Hardy a good environment for "change we can believe in" by replacing Elliot "bow tie" Cohen with Dennis "the menace" Ross.

Just my two cents...

Babak Makkinejad

Harper:

Rebuttals regarding fraud:

http://www.terrorfreetomorrow.org/upimagestft/TFT%20Iran%20Survey%20Report%200609.pdf

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/13/iranian-election

http://djavad.wordpress.com/2009/06/05/surprising-results-for-inequality-in-2007/

Patrick Lang

Babak

Wreckage in both countries.

The US can not stand another big war economically. We are a borrowing, creditor country. Further massive war caused indebtedness will simply be more "living beyond our means." You can only borrow so much money before the household finances collapse. we are close now, having exported our manufacturing base. We are mere consumers, living on credit.

Iran? You have not seen destruction of this kind. pl

Highlander

Hey Colonel,

You being the DIA "Uber Spook", in your hey day.

What further tidbids can you( or anyone else) offer up to us mere citizens, regarding Freedom House,NED,Gene Sharp, and Colonel Robert Helvey US Army retired? Are they good , bad, or just more government cows in the world's china shop?

But please! For Lord's sake don't metion George Soros and his foundations, or we'll all be pushing up daisies!

curious

I seriously doubt the allegations of wide-spread fraud and clearly Mr. Mousavi has a very respectable showing at 13 million votes.
I caution you all that Northern Tehran does not speak for Iran.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 13 June 2009 at 03:25 PM

Well what do you expect? Iran is a prime target. You should have expect and prepare for this.

my take:

1. Ahmadinejad is ahead in this riot game. People in general do not like city riot. If amadinejad can show firm authority, but also accomodative to all players concerned, he wins. He has to show leadership. The core government leadership has to stay intake. (military, civil servant, religious leadership.) Everybody has to issue exact same statement. (maintain stability, everybody help with calm, anarchist will be apprehended) Draw the line, but also provide people with way to let steam out.

2. Musavi has overextend himself with his statement claiming victory. However the election has been declared illegit but ruling bodies. So this is a mess. Why not national recount?

in case of re-doing it. Ahamadinejad already a guarantee win. All he has to do is be a leader. Let's do this, urge calm and order. "save the country and economy". Musavi cannot claim that. So ka-ching. (With the rioting, mousavi credibility is gone forever. nobody like chaos. He can't control his people, there is no way people will trust him to control the nation.)

as for reount. declare the time at your choosing. this is incumbent biggest ace. (no government in the world can anticipate and prepare clandestine operation at this scale without deep preparation.) Even a student riot cannot be coordinated in short period of time. Everybody need security and alternate plan. Iran afteral is still a state police.

So declare new election in 3-4 weeks. Use television to appeal for calm (lots of "chat" and images of city distraction, then appeal for calm. that's your second ace) Start screening "the nasty guys. in the meantimes. 3 weeks is enough to cougt everybody)

Remind everybody to let the police work. (Police has to be very discipline. No idiots beating up people senselessly in the street. No in fronnt of camera at least. Put your most discipline team in front, and the dumber one second in line.) Absolute leadership and discipline in security aparatus. Othewise, chaos.

3. Nobody dies. At this very moment, Iran is quickly heading toward venezuela style coup attempt. (rioting, mysterious sniper, dead student) control every guns, ask people to keep an eye on anarchist. Put surveillance camera, and scope everywhere.

Student is the future, those who march in front rows from elite school will lead the nation one day. Work with them. They want better future, just like everybody else. Talk and invite them to work together. The idiot who burns stuff and go running around doing violance, usually from B and C school. detain them. Liquidate the ring leaders. Nobody will remember them.

4. scan all phone, emails, blogs, student lists. Pictures of rioters. Who gave what speech, newspaper editors, meeting minutes, communique. Looking at the images so far. the demographic is very narrow (age and how they dress), the student doesn't have a lot of public support. I give them few days, if the police and security apparatus are doing their work properly. It's students, everybody did this sort of stuff in their days. What's so new about it?

5. Whoever stand up and do the right thing will lead Iran for next 12-15 years.


As long as nobody dies and the security apparatus maintain discipline, all these is just a hick up.

Once people die and state security apparatus start cracking, then everything goes to hell. Buy your ticket to disneyland.

Tosk59

Re Iranian elections, there almost surely was a lot of 'putting the thumb on the scales' but the assumption that the results "prove" electoral fraud is a stretch (so far), and most analyses are rather unsupported by reason or fact (e.g. see link below)

As to your point that Ahmedinajad's re-election is Natanyahu's wet dream and that they are beating the drums of war, you are spot on... But how does one resist?

http://tinyurl.com/me874r

curious

Who is the Mayor of Tehran? His riot police is terrible. he needs to tell his crew to maintain line and control flow. Not picking up fight with people. Restore order and show authority.

They can't even maintain line. If this is real city riot, the entire city would be burned in ashes.


http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/6/13/742141/-Tehran-Street-Photos

Babak Makkinejad

curious:

You wrote: "However the election has been declared illegit but ruling bodies. So this is a mess.".

That is noit factually correct.

I repeat, Mr. Ahmadinejad has been campaigning, in essence, for the past 4 years. One should be rather surprised if the receivers of his government's attention and largess in the provinces would not want to return him to office.

Mr. Chavez also has been elected and re-elected by margins above 60%. No one talks about fraud there.

kao_hsien_chih

Iran is not the Ukraine.

Iran is closer to Ukraine than not, I think. In Ukraine, the strength of the pro-Russian sentiment cannot be ignored--those to the east of the Dnieper are heavily pro-Russian and they number as much as 40-45% of the Ukrainian population. They solidly backed Yanukovich in that disputed election--and from their perspective, the West and "the traitors" stole the election from them through the so-called "Orange Revolution."

In Iran, the only difference is probably that the supporters of the "color revolution" are probably far fewer in numbers than in the Ukraine and Ahmedinejad's support much broader--and he has been, as Babak noted, far smarter politician--in the Western, more "democratic" sense--even if we don't like what he does in foreign policy.

eakens

...the last time the riot police in Iran tried to stay organized and shied away from being aggressive...there was a revolution.

Anyhow, this whole election was a power play between Khamenei and Rafsanjani to determine which one's son would ascend the "thrown". Ahmadinejad is nothing more than Khamenei's tool to undermine Rafsanjani's efforts to undermine Khamenei - after all, he's been by Khamenei's side for how many years and now has been publicly called out by Ahmadinejad and thrown under the bus? That wouldn't have been permissible without the explicit and tacit approval of Khamenei.

If the fracas keeps up, the people might get another election. But it will end up being a Pyrrhic Victory because what follows will be a lot more than the people bargained for.

DICKERSON3870

RE: " Why has the United States consistently failed to achieve its strategic goals in the Middle East? According to Dennis Ross and David Makovsky, two of America’s leading experts on the region, it is because we have been laboring under false assumptions, or mythologies, about the nature and motivation of Middle East countries and their leaders."

MY COMMENT: This smells like 'Team B'.

WIKIPEDIA: "Team B"

(EXCERPT) ...Team B also concluded that the Soviet Union did not adhere to the doctrine of mutual assured destruction, but rather believed it could win a nuclear war outright. Pipes --in his commentary article--argued that CIA suffered from "mirror-imaging" (i.e., from assuming that the other side had to--and did--think and evaluate exactly the same way); Pipes further wrote that Team B showed Soviet thinking to be based on winning a nuclear war...not avoiding such war due to MAD...

SOURCE - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Team_B

SEE ALSO: "RUSH FROM REALITY" by Rick Perlstein

(EXCERPT)...This was the doctrine of the "principle of reversal" enunciated by John Birch Society founder Robert Welch. Welch explained that in order to understand what the Communists are saying, you have to translate it into its opposite. Though it was a principle, of course, that Welch frequently honored in the breach. When a Communist said something he thought was embarrassing, Welch hammered home that the Communist meant exactly what he said.
The sole authority, of course, qualified to decide when a Communist meant the opposite of what he said, and when he meant exactly what he said was Robert Welch....

SOURCE - http://www.ourfuture.org/blog-entry/2009020926/rush-reality

Babak Makkinejad

curious:

The mayor of Tehran is Mr. Ghalibaf.

But the riot police do not report to him.

Babak Makkinejad

Yes, Col. LAng - the fight with your neighbour that leaves you a blind cripple and him dead is not worth fighting.

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