17 may 2009 - Not a Good Day for Bibi

"The report acknowledges dramatic technological gains by Iran, and it predicts that the country could probably build a simple nuclear device in one to three years, if it kicked out U.N. inspectors and retooled its uranium-processing plants to make weapons-grade enriched uranium. Another five years would be needed to build a warhead that would fit on one of Iran's missiles, the panel says. U.S. intelligence agencies have made similar predictions; Israel maintains that Iran could build a bomb in as little as eight months."  Wapo

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This report was available to Natanyahu yesterday.  This was not good news for someone embarked on a campaign to discredit American intelligence analysis of the "Iranian Threat" (something like the "Yellow Peril").  Today, the news of the great Natanyahu/Obama meeting was on page 10 of the Washington Post along with this little gem about the conclusions of a joint US/Russian study. 

And then, on the editorial page we have an OPED by John Hannah, the Bush Administration Middle East staff hack (now at WINEP).  He is unhappy with the Obama crew's attitude over Iran.  What could be better!

It sounds to me as though things went well at the meeting from the American perspective.  Obama gave up nothing over Iran, i.e., we will look at it again by the end of the year.  Obama insisted that a two-state solution remains American policy in Palestine.

Look to see the lobby try to stage a US "revolt" against Obama over this.  I predict that it won't work and will just cause more damage to Israel's position in the U.S.  Natanyahu is in the process of destroying the special relationship between Israel and the US.  His arrogant belief that the ant can dominate the elephant will do the job.

Now is the time for the Iranians and the Syrians to step forward offering an open hand.  pl

Comments

[J]

I move we 'close' the Israeli's embassy in D.C. and use that space for feeding hungry Americans. Then proceed to close every Israeli Consulate they have on our U.S. soil and send them packing to Israel.

[charlottemom]

My opinion is that that Obama will blink (and principles, him included, know it.)

Who won the day? Israel fared better but Netenyahu had public assistance from both the press and Congress.

Press assistance - article (NYT comes to mind) "misreporting" on the meeting's Iran focus, followed by news accounts of Iran's powerful missles and "Israel in range." Quinn piece on Jones fits in here too.

Congress assistance - letters to Obama supporting Israel.

Of course the televised Obama/Netanyahu meeting looked tense and uncomfortable. That's what it looks like when two people are talking past each other and are determined to get "their lines in" for their respective audiences. I cynically believe that event would never have been televised if players didn't already know their positions would come together in the end.

The press post-meeting gushing (ignatius) about Obama's leadership rings hollow to me too. How exactly have his speeches, statements been reflected in actual policy changes and implementations?

All in all press has done a fine job of maintaining Obama's illusion of trajectory change when in fact there is none. See his economic plan and advisors. So too US/Israel relationship trajectory will not change.

So next stop: Obama will compromise/amend/soften his stated positions due to pressure from Congress (democracy ya know), accounts of Iranian aggression, etc. OR

There will be a historic meeting to set up meetings to discuss side-by-side nation solution vs. two-state solution; then meetings to decide who should be at the meetings; I think you get the point...nothing will happen

[Babak Makkinejad]

kao_hsien_chih:

You might enjoy reading:

Japanese and the Jews (Translated from the Japanese By Richard L. Gage)by Isaiah Ben-Dasan

Clifford Kiracofe:

The arrangement will look like Lebanon and the name of the country will be Palestine Republic.

[curious]

Well this is predictable. Land invasion in less than 2 yrs. count down starts now

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1086642.html

IDF bombs Gaza after Qassam hits Sderot

Israel Defense Forces warplanes on Tuesday attacked the southern Gaza Strip near its border with Egypt, several hours after a rocket fired from the coastal territory exploded in the yard of a western Negev home.

An IDF spokesman said Israel targeted four border tunnels and two sites in Gaza where weapons were produced, in response to rocket and mortar fire aimed at Israel from the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

[johnf]

After a big important meeting both sides, like squid, broadcast clouds of obscufation into the media, so its very difficult to say which side is winning.

To add to the clouds but to counter some of "The Israelis are Winning" pessimism, this from pro-Likud Yedioth Achronoth:

>"A senior Israeli official who was present at the meetings defined them as 'a fight' and 'mutual arm-wrestling,' with Netanyahu trying to put an emphasis on the Iranian issue, and the members of Congress insisting on returning to the issue of the settlements. The senior official emphasized that there was full coordination between President Obama and the members of the Democratic majority in Congress. Netanyahu discovered yesterday how much Congress had changed, the senior official said. In 1996, Netanyahu recruited the Republican majority that existed in Congress against Clinton, the Democratic president. Today, this is impossible."

http://tinyurl.com/opovmq

[curiouus]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/18/content_11391638.htm

JERUSALEM, May 17 (Xinhua) -- Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) announced Sunday that the country is officially in a recession.

According to CBS's data, Israel's gross domestic product fell by 3.6 percent in the first quarter of 2009, following a 0.5 percent drop in the last three months of 2008. The formal definition of a recession is two consecutive months of negative economic growth.

Israeli business sector revenue fell at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2009, following a 1.6 percent drop in the last quarter of 2008 and a 1-percent rise in the third quarter of 2008, the data showed.

[curious]

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2009/05/guest_post_by_w/

There was some substance, however, to take away from the meeting.

First, Obama made it clear that Israel must honor its commitment to freeze settlement growth if it is to be taken seriously as a partner in the peace process (note: it would have been nice if a reporter could have put this question to Netanyahu in front of Obama, rather than harping on Iran for most of the half hour-long Q&A).

Second, while he did not set a specific deadline, Obama did lay out a rough metric for diplomatic efforts with Iran by identifying the end of the year as a point of assessment.

Third, and probably the only mild surprise, we later learned that Netanyahu and Obama set up a US-Israel working group on Iran, although it is unclear what exactly this amounts to.

Fourth, Obama intends to take a broader regional approach to the peace process, hoping to be able to offer the normalization of relations with moderate Arab regimes as an incentive for Netanyahu to engage his government in the process.

With regards to the last point, in the past many administrations have tried the regional approach and failed - but this does not mean it is a mistake to try again. A sustainable equilibrium is possible only if all of the major regional stakeholders are on board.

This point was emphasized by Zbigniew Brzezinski at a recent national policy forum on US-Saudi Relations hosted by the New America Foundation and the Committee for International Trade. Brzezinski explained that over the last 30 years we have seen clearly that this conflict cannot be resolved by the Israelis and Palestinians alone. He argued that "there is an urgent need for an American - Saudi Arabian genuine alliance for peace in the Middle East."

[curious]

Right on schedule. Lebanon again. Next escalation against syria and Iran. (watch the news within months, weird bombing and assassination.)

Somebody better put Israel economy in very deep depression, before they blow up stuff and starting another war. The economy cannot handle their antics.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2009/05/israel-prepares-for-nasrallah-assasination-says-hezbollah-official.html

LEBANON: Israel prepping for Nasrallah kill, says Hezbollah

Everyone in Lebanon has been noticing how Hezbollah's rhetoric has been heating up lately.

The group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, made it clear in a number of speeches this week that his party would tolerate neither spies, Israeli "aggression" nor what he described as Lebanese government hypocrisy.

It's volatile talk ahead of critical June 7 elections in which Hezbollah needs to sway at least some Christians to vote in its favor.

On Monday, Nasrallah warned that the Islamic militant group would be on high alert as Israel prepared to conduct its largest military maneuvers since 1961, a series of armed forces and emergency services drills expected to take place toward the end of the month.

[curious]

score one for Israel lobby, they restore arrow3 funding.

http://www.examiner.com/x-4814-LA-Middle-Eastern-Policy-Examiner~y2009m5d21-US-comes-through-will-fund-Israels-Arrow-3-missile-defense-system

U.S. comes through, will fund Israel’s Arrow 3 missile defense system

[curious]

Bibi to Hillary: you can bite me too.

(get ready for oil hitting $150. as saudi ambassador said.)

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2009/05/israel_rebuffs_us_call_for_total_settlement_freeze.php

Israel defied a surprisingly blunt U.S. demand that it freeze all building in West Bank Jewish settlements, saying Thursday it will press ahead with construction.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Wednesday that President Barack Obama wants Israel to halt to all settlement construction — including "natural growth." She was referring to Israel's insistence that new construction is necessary to accommodate the expansion of families already living in existing settlements.

Government spokesman Mark Regev responded by saying "normal life in those communities must be allowed to continue." He confirmed that this meant some construction will continue in existing settlements.

[J]

If the Israelis wont' stop their settlement construction, then immediately close Israel's D.C. embassy, their consulates, and trade shops all around the U.S.. Watch how quick the Israelis snap to.