It's "Bibi" time again.

Natanyahu takes office today with his cabinet of extreme nationalists, religious parties and a variety of other "friends of AIPAC." 

What can be expected from this cast of characters?

- An endless evasiveness on the subject of a state for the Palestinians.  Bibi and co. will instead try to sell them on the idea of a comfortble life as serfs, helots or whatever term one prefers.

- An effort to strike a clearly unequal bargain with Syria.  The deal must be seen by the Likudniks as unbalanced and in Israel's favor or they will not feel good about themselves.  After all, if you are not screwing your "enemies," then who are you?  This is a very Middle Eastern attitude, a place where a game that is not a zero sum game is thougt to be a defective game.

- An endless hostility toward Iran.  An Iran that fulfills the need for enemies, enemies that can be defeated and frustrated as a kind of memorial to bygone enemies.  Bibi's government will lean toward a unilateral first strike on Iran if the USA can not be maneuvered into doing the "business."

- the Iran "issue" will probably be the proximate cause of the confrontation between Bibidom and the Obama White House that I have been expecting.  Bibi has let it be known that he will not "tolerate" an American effort toward an "opening" with Iran.  Bibi thinks the United States is a sort of "cash cow" to be manipulated by clever people like him.  He, Avigdor Lieberman, et al will seek to bully and dominate the US using propagandists in the media, propagandists from captive think tanks, friendly media outlets and servile members of Congress.  In the end, a personal confrontation involving President Obama himself is an inevitability.  Then we will see...  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSLU207116

Comments

[Highlander]

What exactly do you expect to see Colonel?

Obama is a complete creation of the American Jewish politcal establishment. Starting from his financing, to political operatives, to media opeations, to lobbyist connections, to the "Wall Street Gang".

On election night at a celebration in Chicago one very prominent Jewish politcal financier jubilantly proclaimed that,"Obama was the first Jewish President".

As I've said before, Obama will do a little anti Israel Kabuki theater from time to time. Just to keep the far lefty "schmucks" in line. But at the end of the day it will be Israel all the way. You really think he has a real choice?

I suspect that "Bibi" holds one hell of a lot more trump cards than you would like to acknowledge.

Face it! You antizionists have been had once again.

[Leanderthal]

Col. Lang,

Thanks for saying what needs to be said. We need you, and others like you who have the essential and necessary supporting credentials, to make this case.

[Mike Martin, Yorktown, VA]

No doubt he will come with a repeated demand for the freedom of Pollard, Franklin, etc, and OBTW, how much longer will it take the United States to realize that the USS Liberty was an unfortunate misunderstanding.

[par4]

Bibi will lose that confrontation.

[Patrick Lang]

highlander

That's what I want to see. I want to know whether or not you are right. pl

[David Habakkuk]

Highlander,

You say that with Obama 'at the end of the day, it will be Israel all the way'?

Do you think Obama himself has any real belief in the Zionist cause?

Do you think he believes that unquestioning support for Israel is in the interest of his own country, the United States of America?

[Mike Martin, Yorktown, VA]

Any conjecture on Rahm Emmanuel's role wrt how Obama will deal w/ Netanyahu?

[Cieran]

Highlander:

But at the end of the day it will be Israel all the way. You really think he has a real choice?

He certainly has a choice, by virtue of the fact that he was elected by citizens of the U.S., not those of a foreign nation. If economic times were good, he could afford to keep Bibi happy, but times are not good, so...

I agree with the Colonel here -- we do not yet know what choices the Obama administration will make, and therein lies the interest. The electoral picture in America is changing rapidly, and if Obama has to choose between dealing with emerging populist rage in the U.S. and dealing with silly Bibi tricks in Israel, we'll quickly see just how good of a politician he is.

The question I wonder about is this: have Israeli politicians figured out how rapidly the electoral map is changing in the U.S.? Are they operating from a set of assumptions that is no longer an accurate measure of the mood of the U.S. voter?

[Cato the Censor]

I sincerely hope that President Obama is canny enough not to be taken by a thug like Netanyahu.

[Patrick Lang]

highlander

My only interest in zionism is the obvious success it has had in manipulating US policy. pl

[J]

If President Obama will only continue to keep trash like former Mossad head Uzi Arad from entering our U.S. at least that will be one positive start (Arad has been shown to have been involved in several hostile Israeli espionage operations against the U.S.).

[zanzibar]

As Pat stated it is to be seen how Obama handles himself when the inevitable confrontation with Bibi arises?

Yes, the wait and see. But if his complete capitulation to the Wall Street Finance lobby to the detriment of working Americans is an indicator he may buckle easily to the Israel First lobby as was seen with the Chas Freeman case. We will likely have the kabuki of rhetoric as we have seen with the excess compensation distraction while the American taxpayer is being robbed blind.

David - we may be making an error in assuming that Obama like Bush/Cheney before him places the interest of his country before his own personal interest? The lure of massive wealth and celebrity may be hard to resist.

Cieran - yes he does have a choice but will he choose the side of the citizens that elected him or those that he perceives are the real "movers & shakers" - the political and financial elite. We saw how Congress voted on the non-binding resolutions during Cast Lead. We have seen the effectiveness of information operations over the short term. What is your perception of the mood of the US voter?

I have reached the point that I am skeptical that Obama will guide policy in the best interests of our country. I hope however that it is just unfounded cynicism.

[Bill Wade, NH, USA]

If it turns out that President Obama does not do Bibi's bidding, we can then breathe a sigh of relief that Obama is his own man. But, if the opposite happens, then what?

[Arbogast]

Key quote:

Bibi thinks the United States is a sort of "cash cow" to be manipulated by clever people like him.

What is the connection between the bailout of large "banks" and Israel?

Nothing? Independent events?

Just remember that Henry Kissinger said that Maurice Greenberg, the head of AIG, was the most honorable man he had ever met.

[frank durkee]

What does anyone here make of "Bibi's' threat in an interview today to act against Iran's atomic project, if we can not contain it?

[johnf]

>Any conjecture on Rahm Emmanuel's role wrt how Obama will deal w/ Netanyahu?

I remember reading a few months ago - but can't remember where now - that Emmanuel and Netanyahu had a serious run in while Clinton was president and Bibi came off worst. Bill Clinton certainly had no time for Netanyahu. Neither, one suspects, does his wife.

[Leanderthal]

Goldberg of The Atlantic confirmed your prediction.

That didn't take long.

[Patrick Lang]

FD

I suppose I qualify to give an opinion.

The Israelis can strike Iran with the Jericho 2 and/or 3 with either conventional or nuclear weapons.

My military friends think eiher is possible. The conventional warheads would be intended to make a US second strike necessary. pl

[Cieran]

Zanzibar:

Good comments, as always. As far as this:

What is your perception of the mood of the US voter?

The only characterization I would assert on that topic with any degree of certainty would be that said mood is volatile, and more mutable than I have ever seen.

Given that, I would suggest that if Bibi wants to start causing more trouble in the middle east, he might want to check his assumptions about the mood of the U.S. voter, because the "special relationship" between the U.S. and Israel was calibrated during the last administration, and the world has shifted quite a bit since then.

[batondor]

Pat,

There is something tragically ironic in my reading on this subject today:

First, your contribution with which I largely concur...

Followed by Uri Avnery's piece on the same subject that echo's your own views in somewhat more sarcastic terms through the eyes of someone with a bit more at stake:

http://www.avnery-news.co.il/english/index.html

Then moments ago, thoroughly depressed by the uncertainties laden with doubt to which you and your posters point, I found this somewhat encouraging account in Haaretz that suggests that Obama's own advisors on the subject have put a plan on the table for him to put before Bibi that the new PM will find difficult to even have on his plate, not to mention swallow with a smile:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/objects/pages/PrintArticleEn.jhtml?itemNo=1075120

But finally, it fades in the hasty, nasty, and presumptuous glare of Bibi himself:

http://jeffreygoldberg.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/03/netanyahu_piece.php

Is Bibi's haste an indication that he knows where Obama is headed and he's trying to beat him to the punch? Something like "Eliminate the possibility that Iran might obtain a nuclear capability and then we'll talk about the Palestinians?".

All I will add is that I hope Obama preempts Bibi's full court press in May when he seems to hope to come to the US, stir up the troops, and then prance into the WH to give Mr. Obama his marching orders:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/objects/pages/PrintArticleEn.jhtml?itemNo=1072217

I frankly do not agree that Israel can seriously consider a unilateral first strike against Iran as viable, but doing so forces me to prove the unprovable negative. I just read your comment on the capability that Israel retains with its Jerichos, etc. and do not doubt the accuracy of the assessment...

... but I also presume that this generation knows the unspoken downside of the Six Day War and its aftermath: Israel's military leaders thought that they would neutralize Egypt for twenty years, only to be surprised in a most shocking manner within six!

On the other hand, Avnery's argument seems confirmed that Bibi has positioned himself at the absurd center between his Right wing and Left wing ultra-nationalists that leaves him with only one real weakness: a loss of support from the United States.

My hope, frankly, is that the President will not appreciate Bibi's haughty behavior one bit...

[Jackie Shaw]

Batondor,
When I read Bibi's remarks earlier, your sentiment was what I was hoping.

"My hope, frankly, is that the President will not appreciate Bibi's haughty behavior one bit..."

I hope someone gives Bibi enough rope.
Jackie

[Andy]

My prediction: We won't see Obama seriously challenge the status quo with Israel for a couple of years at least. Here's why:

Consider the President's position and all the critical priorities he must address, the economy being number one. His political capital isn't infinite, so he must concentrate on the most critical tasks.

As head of a new government Bibi is not likely to compromise on many issues, so President Obama must consider what is realistically achievable. In my judgment, confronting Bibi at this point in time would accomplish little while being politically costly and distracting from more pressing aspects of the President's agenda. My sense is that Israel is a pretty low priority for the American people at the moment. Therefore I think Israel will go on the back burner as long as the economy is in crisis. Any movements on Israeli policy with be minor and/or at the margins.

Depending on how long domestic issues remain the priority, significant changes in policy regarding Israel may stay on that back burner until after the next election. I actually think that's likely since election season in the US over a year long now and the economic crisis will last 2-3 years at least.

So, if policy toward Israel does not change, I think it would be a mistake to make the assumption that President Obama either caved to or was bought by Israeli interests. It could just as easily be timing, the precedence of more pressing issues, and a low or negative cost-benefit ratio.

The wildcard in all this, of course, is any move by Israel to unilaterally attack Iran.

[frank durkee]

Given the reports that Cheney was downplaying Obama's capacities to be an effective leader to Bibi and others in Isreal; is there a significant chance that this is a coordinated effort tobox the president in?

[graywolf]

If Netanyahu can blow up Iran's nuclear program, what's wrong with that?
FYI.....Any country whose foreign policy is "death to America" is certainly not our friend.

[curious]

Bibi's in tough choice. he can wait until Obama popularity goes down, as it normally would for all president. Then Bibi can push his agenda with whatever murky situation he can stir up. At the very least bibi will have much more leverage when Obama is in tough political situation.

On the other hand, Israel's point of attacking Iran diminish over time. (what's the hurry about attacking Iran a year or two from now? They already said iran would have nuke in late '08, then Q1 '09, then again late 09. Bombing Iran in 2011, is a bit dubious in term of political discourse.

so, this will be triangle dance. Israel-Iran-US.

Frankly, I think if Iran insist "I don't know what you two are talking about" until late 2011. The whole thing will cool by itself. israel nuke argument would not make any sense at all to the public, since it would means they have to also argue iran is either not as dangerous as they insist.