Sic Semper Tyrannis

MY PPT on the Military Orders

I spent the morning giving a lecture on the Crusader states and the Military religious orders.  Here are my slides.  There is no text.  Make up your own.  pl

Download The Crusader States2

I was a bit tired yesterday when I put this up.  I felt something like that Templar to the left.  forthose who might want to reac something about this general subject I suggest:

Zoe Oldenbourg, "The Crusades," out of print but available.

Sir John Runciman "A History of the Crusades," 3 volumes

Anything by Joshua Prawer

There is some new research concerning the origins of the people of the 1st Crusade and the demographic pattern of the Kingdom of Jerusalem.

I recommend the director's cut of the movie, "The Kingdon of Heaven,"  There are a number of ahistorical things about the film but I think it captures the spirit of the thing well.

I would welcome comments that add to the bibliography of this subject.  800 years ago wasn't really so long as one might think.  pl

The search for the "New South"

"Dickinson says you know you're in real Virginia "when the big issue is hunting. People who are for hunting and the Second Amendment are going to vote Republican to protect against radical socialist communist views. It's also about faith: I don't see how any person who believes in Jesus Christ could vote for Obama or any Democrat." "  Fisher

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"There's no such anxiety up the road at Northern Virginia Community College in Woodbridge in Prince William County. The "real Virginia" concept draws nothing but blank stares here. Most students feel no connection either to Southern culture or to the notion that Northern Virginia is an outpost of the District. They think of Prince William as generic suburbia, hardly different from similar settings in New Jersey or North Carolina."  Fisher

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Walker Percy wrote in "The Thanatos Syndrome"  that if there is such a thing as Southern culture, part of it consists in not talking about it.  Percy knew very well that the South abides, but his point was well taken.  Ron White says that he knows he should be quiet about some things, but "lacks the ability."  Amen, brother.

I learned long ago that people see what they want to see.  Marc Fisher drove south along I-95 all the way to Fredericksburg, fifty miles from Washington in search of "proof" that Southerners are inbred, mouth breathing, trolls.  He found what he was seeking.  He could have stayed in the District of Columbia and found equally bizarre, if slightly different folk.

This "controversy" over the blueness or the redness of places in Virginia is silly, but...

"Let's Vote!"

"Never have so many people in the region registered to vote, and with the intense interest in the presidential election, officials expect turnout rates as high as 90 percent. Virginia has added 500,000 registered voters to its rolls since the 2004 presidential election and now has more than 5 million. Maryland's list has grown 10 percent, to almost 3.5 million, and the District has almost 427,000.

"The numbers are going to be staggering," said Guy Mickley, president of the Maryland Association of Elections Officials."  Washpost

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On election day, my wife and I will walk a few blocks to "Matthew F. Maury School" to cast our ballots in the school gymnasium.  She was an election official for many years and the polling place will be filled with poll workers who are old colleagues of hers.  The people waiting in line to vote will be neighbors.  It will be a scene that Norman Rockwell would have liked to paint, but, in fact, the Rosemont neighborhood is altogether like that.

Until a few years ago candidates were not identified by party on Virginia ballots.  We do not register to vote by party.  Hell, until a few years ago you did not need an ID card to vote.  You certified as to who you were subject to prosecution if you lied.  In Alexandria, Virginia civic activism is a major participant sport.

Having said all that, I think that the level of public interest in this election is noticeably higher than anything I have seen before.  The turnout for this one is going to be massive.  There are candidate signs everywhere on lawns.

It is ironic that the NAACP is suing Governor Kaine over the issue of preparations for the election.  Kaine is a Democrat.  He is a co-chair of Obama's national campaign.  He is a former mayor of Richmond, a city dominated by Black Virginians.

As the man said last night on "The Daily Show," let's get this over with.

Let's vote!  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102801788.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008102803740&s_pos=

The Raid Into Syria

""Iraq is in contact with the American side about reports regarding the attack along the frontier with Syria. This region is a theatre of insurgent activities against Iraq using Syria as a launch pad," Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said in a statement.

He said Baghdad was also asking Damascus to extradite members of an unnamed group it accused of killing 19 Iraqi security guards in a recent attack.

In Syria, the official press said Sunday's attack -- which the authorities say left eight civilians dead, including four children -- was a "war crime" by the administration of US President George W. Bush.

"The American forces from Iraq committed cold-blooded murder," government newspaper Tishrin wrote. "They committed a war crime in killing eight Syrian civilians in a quiet village."

Official media reported that American helicopter-borne troops from Iraq launched an assault on a building site Sunday in the village of Al-Sukkiraya, which lies just eight kilometres (five miles) from the border.

It was the first confirmed US action of its kind into Syrian territory amid frosty relations between Washington and Damascus."  AFP

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How does one explain this operation?

At present; the Bush Administration and its perennial and unending hostility to Syria is about to disappear, negotiations between the US and Iraq are in a delicate condition, Syria has signaled a desire to improve relations with the US, Israel and Lebanon, there is a new US commander in Iraq.

Where in all of that is an explanation for this US commando raid into the Syrian border country?

Some thoughts:

- The US Special Operations Forces (USSOF) counter-terrorist forces may have been "off the leash" on this one.  These forces are exclusively focused on hunting down terrorist people and support group world-wide.  Rumsfeld made them largely independent of the regular military chain of command.  They amount to a global SWAT team.  They develop their own targeting intelligence and make their own plans.  The amount of control that the local US joint commander has over them is not very clear.  They are not noted for a great deal of insight into geopolitical niceties.

- General Odierno, the man who replaced Petraeus in Iraq, is not famous for nuanced reactions to frustrating situations.

Whatever the cause, the result of ham fisted actions of this kind can be disastrous for the chance of making something better emerge from the situation that Bush/Cheney is leaving for President Obama and his team.  pl

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5idcYqma-8uXPWUzIwI5oujhh03gg

GOP = Whigs?

Millard Fillmore was the last Whig president.  He succeeded Zachary Taylor upon Taylor's unexpected death.  There were a few more Whig candidates for president after Fillmore, but the game was really over for the Whigs.  The party broke up over the internal "contradictions" of its Northern and Southern factions.  Complicating the situation was the competition provided by the "Know Nothing" nativists, the "Free Soilers,' the "Anti-Masonic" party, and the small abolitionist movement.

David Frum is a Canadian born neocon who wrote speeches for "W" for a few years and now has taken root at the American Enterprise Institute.  He is a utopian in political thought who has consistently supported an aggressive pursuit of democratic westernization in foreign policy but has never shown much interest (so far as I know) in American domestic affairs.  A few years back, he wrote a book entitled "The End of Evil" with Richard Perle (you remember him). Got the picture?

In the article linked to below, Frum repudiates the strategy of the disastrous McCain campaign.  In doing so he also implicitly repudiates the coalition of forces that has made up the present composition of the Republican Party.  In recent years the GOP has become a party in which a right wing foreign policy elite has manipulated the voting power of a "base" increasingly made up of small town, rural, white, faith driven activists oriented towards "issues of conscience" such as; abortion, gay marriage, gun control, etc. 

The problem with that coalition is that the activists and the neocons do not make up a winning majority on a national basis and the mass of supporters of this coalition are only that, supporters.  They are not activists.  There are other potential priorities for them.

The country has now come on hard times.  The economy, the foreign policy mess into which the neocons led the public, the real estate losses of ordinary Americans, the growing hatred of the Wall Street "Masters of the Universe" (perceived as Republican insiders); all these factors are destroying the aggregation of numbers that has led to Republican victories for decades.

The neocon and nativist/rural factions of the Republican Party may be too deeply entrenched in power to be removed from control.  This may mean that the Republican Party itself is not salvageable. 

It will be a good idea to look very closely at the the "internals" of the coming election results.

The time may be coming when the centrist parts of both parties have more in common than they have with the existing party structures.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/23/AR2008102302081.html

Will OPEC production cuts work?

"Even the Saudis, who argued for keeping the markets well supplied at the last OPEC meeting, seemed to have been struck by the speed of the price drop.

When prices spiked this summer, the cartel’s leaders attributed the jump to speculation, and Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil producer and OPEC’s most powerful member, opened the taps and increased production to a record of 10 million barrels a day. The Saudis have since pared their output to around 9.5 million barrels a day, according to analysts.

As the lowest-cost producer, Saudi Arabia can afford to let prices fall for a while without hurting its budget. Most analysts estimate that the Saudis could live with oil at $55 to $65 a barrel. But other producers need higher prices. Nigeria’s oil minister said his country would be more comfortable with $80, Qatar has set a range of $70 to $90, and Iran’s representative said that prices below $90 a barrel would hurt.

For Iran and Venezuela, the drop in prices is particularly painful,"  NY Times

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OPEC agreements on production cuts are not going to halt the fall in the world price of crude.  The fantastic prices that prevailed in the Summer of 2008 were the outcome of trading in oil as financial investments rather than as commodities.  Deregulation led to this as it led to speculative excess in many other commodities (real estate derivatives being the most famous example).  A valuation of crude by the financial markets resulted that had little to do with short term demand and everything to do with the boundless "greed" espoused by Gordon Gecko.

The collapse of the stock and credit markets that has occurred has started an unwinding of the fantasy of the false short term valuation of crude oil.  At the same time the actual economic slowdowns that are happening around the world are reducing real short term demand for oil to even lower levels.  This produces a downward spiral that has a certain built in momentum.

The oil producing countries need the revenues that they were earning at the inflated prices of oil that prevailed last Summer.  In many countries the governments themselves are the principal owners of the oil producing companies.  A loss of revenue by the oil companies is a direct "hit" on the governments' budgets.  Political stability in these countries is to some extent dependent on budgets.  Cutting production is a gamble that many of these governments will hesitate to adopt.  Cheating on OPEC established quotas for production is an old feature of the oil supply situation.  In addition, there will be countries who will simply not "play ball" with OPEC in this.

Conclusion:  Production reduction efforts on the part of OPEC will not be fully effective.  Demand will continue to fall for some unforeseeable period of time. Therefore, crude oil prices wil continue to decline.  To what level will prices decline and for how long?  That is not knowable at this time, but It is likely that price will decline to below 50 dollars a barrel.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/business/worldbusiness/25oil.html?_r=1&pagewanted=2&bl&ei=5087&en=e931bc5317323329&ex=1225080000&oref=slogin

Tribe on tribe - Pakistan

"The wounded men, and many others in the hospital, were supposed to be the backbone of a Pakistani government effort to take on the Taliban and its backers, Al Qaeda, with armies of traditional tribesmen working in consultation with the Pakistani military.

The tribal militias, known as lashkars, have quickly become a crucial tool of the Pakistani strategy in the tribal belt, where the army has been fighting the Taliban for more than two months. Their emergence is a sign not only of the tribesmen's rising frustration with the ruthlessness of the Taliban, but also of their traditional desire to run their own affairs and keep the Pakistani Army at bay, Pakistani officers and law enforcement officials say.

But even though some in Washington have pointed to the emergence of the lashkars as a hopeful parallel to the largely successful Sunni Awakening movement in Iraq, the tribesmen, armed with antiquated weaponry from the 1980s Afghan war, are facing better-equipped, highly motivated Taliban who have intimidated and crushed some of the militia.

Unlike in Anbar Province, one senior U.S. official said, where the Iraqi tribes "woke up to millions of dollars in government assistance and the support of the 3rd Infantry division," the support by the Pakistani Army and civilian government for the tribal militias has been "episodic" and so far "unsustained.""  IHT

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"Four things greater than all things are,

Women, and horses, and power and war."

R. Kipling

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This will work.

The takfiris and the Taliban are irritants in Pakistani tribal territory just as they were in Anbar and Diyala.  The lives of the tribesmen have a certain rhythm, a rhythm that has developed over hundred of years.  They may well be fanatics of some sort within the larger Islamic galaxy of communities, but  they are their own kind of fanatics.  Their lives are ruled by their conception of Islam, their tribal customary law and their allegiances to family, clan and tribe.  As in Iraq the Sunni takfiri jihadis seek to "reform" the lives of the tribesmen, to make them "pure" as they imagine the early community of the Muslims was "pure."  Nobody wants to be made "pure" according to someone else's conception of "purity."

This is the great weakness of the international movement of the takfiri jihadis.  They are vulnerable everywhere to armed rejection by those they wish to "save." 

I have no specific knowledge of this but I would wager that the "episodic" nature of the support these tribesmen have received will be a lot more dependable soon.

This may bring on civil war in tribal territory?   Quite possibly.  pl

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/23/asia/militia.php

http://www.poetryloverspage.com/poets/kipling/ballad_of_kings_jest.html

The McCain/Palin Administration - Not!

Sarah Palin started calling it the "McCain/Palin Administration" immediately after her coronation at the Republican convention.  Most of us "inside the beltway" creatures knew right away that this was a bad thing.  For the vice-presidential nominee of any party to claim that he or she will exercize executive power during the administration of the presidential nominee is an act of unconstitutional bravado unsupported by history or law.

"W" gave Cheney delegated power, power based not in law but in his own willingness to sign over function and authority.  It should be understood that "W" could have delegated the same authority to "Joe" Wirzelbacher (or whatever his name is).  So long as he was a citizen, the same powers that "W" gave Cheney could have been "loaned" to "Joe."  The point is that the "loan" of powers by Bush to Cheney was a personal matter, and the loan does not endow future vice-presidents with similar or indeed any powers or functions other than to succeed to the presidency and to act as the president of the senate.  Former vice-presidents have not claimed that the presidency of the senate involved anything other than an occasional appearance in the chamber and the casting of tie breaking votes.  Sarah Palin's apparent belief that she could inject herself into the business of the senate seems to be unprecedented.  It would have been interesting to watch.

Alas, it will not be.

After watching the developing dynamic of the election state by state, I have come to think that this election will be a landslide of historic proportion.  This is a "perfect storm" for the Republicans.  There are many cyclones that have produced this typhoon; revulsion against the proto-fascism of the neocons, the muddle that is the Bush Administration, "Darth" Cheney and his henchmen, the two wars, the failure to capture bin Laden, the stock market crash, the rumors of a coming depression/recession, etc.  Add some more disasters to the list if you like.  There are many possibilities.

It looked for months as though the deep seated racism of many Americans might be enough to hold back the wind, but that ancient sin and defect has not proven to be effective this time. 

Obama will be president.   The Democrats will hold both houses of Congress so strongly that they will be tempted to govern unwisely, pushing the country farther to the left than its nature will allow.

McCain will be finished.  Perhaps he can find some peace in that.  Palin will become queen of the Northwest and prophetess of the Evangelicals.  Unfortunately for her, there are not enough votes in that base to elect her president.

We will see what the new adminsitration will be like.

It would be a good thing to have a government made up of human beings.  pl

Fortunato's Creed

"Pat Army Specialist Stephen R. Fortunato (25) passed away in Afghanistan this past week. He wrote the following recently and if you see fit please pass it on as it is especially poingant considering his short time here. He was from my hometown, though I did not know him I knew his family and he came from fine stock. All the Best Bobo " ""If I may … I’d like to say something….Just to get it out there so it is clear. To all the pampered and protected Americans who feel it is their duty to inform me that I am not fighting for their freedom, and that i am a pawn in Bush’s agenda of greed and oil acquisition: Noted, and Fuck You. I am not a robot. i am not blind or ignorant to the state of the world or the implications of the “war on terrorism.” i know that our leaders have made mistakes in the handling of a very sensitive situation, but do not for one second think that you can make me lose faith in what we, meaning America’s sons, daughters, fathers, and mothers in uniform are doing. I am doing my part in fighting a very real enemy of the United States, i.e. Taliban, Al Qaeda, and various other radical sects of Islam that have declared war on our way of life. Unless you believe the events of 9/11 were the result of a government conspiracy, which by the way would make you a MORON, there is no reasonable argument you can make against there being a true and dangerous threat that needs to be dealt with. I don’t care if there are corporations leeching off the war effort to make money, and I don’t care if you don’t think our freedom within America’s borders is actually at stake. I just want to kill those who would harm my family and friends. it is that simple. Even if this is just a war for profit or to assert America’s power, so what? Someone has to be on top and I want it to be us. There’s nothing wrong with wishing prosperity for your side. I am a proud American. I believe that my country allows me to live my life more or less however I want to, and believe me, I have seen what the alternative of that looks like. I also believe that our big scary government does way more than it has to help complete fuck-ups get back on their feet, a stark comparison to places where leaders just line their own pockets with gold while allowing the people who gave them their power and privilege to starve. I have chosen my corner. I back my country, and am proud to defend it against aggressors. Also, if you dare accuse us of being inhumane, or overly aggressive because we have rolled into someone else’s country and blown some shit up and shot some people, let me remind you of just how inhumane we COULD be in defending ourselves. Let me remind you that we have a warhead that drops multiple bomblets from the stratosphere which upon impact, would turn all the sand in Iraq to glass, and reduce every living thing there to dust. Do we use it? No. Instead we use the most humane weapon ever devised: the American Soldier. We send our bravest (and perhaps admittedly craziest) men and women into enemy territory, into harms way, to root out those whom we are after and do our best to leave innocent lives unscathed. …One last thing… A proposal: I know it has been stated time and time again but I just think it is worthy of reiteration. If you find yourself completely disgusted with the way America is being ran, and how we handle things on the global stage, you can leave. Isn’t that amazing? No one will stop you! If you are an anarchist, there are places you can go where there is no government to tell you anything. That’s right…you are left solely to your own devices and you can handle the men who show up at your door with AKs in any way that you see fit. Just don’t try good old American debate tactics on them because you will most likely end up bound and blind-folded, to have your head chopped off on the internet so your parents can see it. However, if you insist on staying here and taking advantage of privileges such as free speech and WIC, keep the counter-productive shit to a minimum while the grown ups figure out how to handle this god-awful mess in the middle east. Stephen R. Fortunato 26th Infantry Regiment US Army"'

Schedule

I will be gone until Wednesday.  I am on a panel at Fordham University Tuesday.  It is at the Manhattan Campus of the law school from 1 to 5 PM.  Subject "Torture and American Culture."

For those who might be interested, I have fnished a draft of my next novel, "Death Piled Hard."  pl

http://www.fordham.edu/Campus_Resources/Public_Affairs/topstories_1379.asp

Powell endorses Obama

I watched this.  I suppose that President Obama will find something for Colin Powell to do for the next few years, but that will be unfortunate.

Powell is someone who truly "blotted his copybook" as the Brits used to say.  After a lifetime of service and achievement, Powell chose in the end to "drink the koolaid" that flowed in the bloodstream of the Bush/Cheney/neocon regime that has ruled the United States for the last eight years.  He was Secretary of State at a time when his firm opposition, and ultimately his resignation would have crippled the onrushing utopian crusade for Westernization in Iraq. 

He did not choose to follow that path.  Instead, he chose to believe the corrupted judgments of an intelligence community leadership that betrayed the country and the armed forces by producing nonsensical estimates designed to create support for war among an ignorant and bellicose public that hungered for revenge aganst an enemy they could not even define.

Today, when he was asked by Brokaw about his role as perhaps the greatest enabler of the Iraq War decision, he took shelter behind the collection of garbage that was served up in 2002-2003 by George Tenet and company as justification for war.

For Shame!  For Shame!

He should hide himself and hope that someday men will remember the good of him and not the worst.  pl

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081019/pl_politico/14714

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Powell

PS  Contrary to Brokaw, on MTP, it does not appear that Powell commanded an infantry battalion in the 101st Division in VN.  Comment?

"Serving the President"

Today it was once again possible to hear both serving officers of the armed forces and the newspeople who cover them speak of their belief that military and naval officers "serve the president."  This time the mention was in connection with the "discovery" that Petraeus and Odierno have decided (some time ago) that they will not vote in the national election.  Odierno was taped saying that voting would be a bad idea because to do so would compromise his ability to "serve the president" whomever that might be.

It was actually a very old custom of the US Army that regular officers did not vote.  My father did not vote until he retired from the Army.  That custom has not been followed for a long time, but the reason that Odierno gave is not the reason that was contemplated in the past.

In days of old, it was understood that members of the armed forces served the constitution and through that instrument they served the federal union.  That is quite different.

The principle is simple.  The president is not sovereign.  He is the instrument of the constitution as are the members of the armed forces.  The president has no authority or right to order anyone in the armed forces to do anything that is unconstitutional or indeed illegal.  If he does, then he need not be obeyed and such an order is proof in itself of a "high crime."

The present administration in Washington has done everything in its power to persuade that, in effect, the president IS sovereign.  This is a lie and a pernicious doctrine that, if accepted, would make us all the servants of a king or perhaps a queen.

I have had old army friends argue to me that they DO think of the president as king and that they must think thusly because how else would they know whom to obey.

I think it must be said that such ideas are unworthy in those to whom the constitution and the people have entrusted so much.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereignty

"Joe" and the Magic Plunger.

Someone wrote to ask if I thought "Joe" might be a "plant," a "shill,"  a "ringer," etc.  The appearance of this fellow in the midst of the desperate search by Rick Davis, McCain et al for a rallying figure among the white, working class electorate does raise a certain question for me.

Someone should be taking a close look at Mr. Joe the everyman.

He brings to mind a bit of doggerel that my "mates" used to sing in pubs in the Gulf:

"Oh who IS the Sultan of Muscat and Oman?

Is he a yes man or is he a no man?

Or is he indeed, the abominable Snowman?"  Anon.

Look closely boys and girls of the media.  That is what you are paid for.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/nyregion/17plumber.html?em

The GOP and the income tax.

A new feature of the ever evolving memes and themes of the McCain presidential campaign is the accusation that Obama is in favor of a "redistribution of wealth" in the United States through what amounts to confiscatory taxation.  Both McCain and his familiar, Rick Davis, have been saying that (paraphrase) "Americans do not want to see income redistributed through taxation" and that to redistribute income in that way is (paraphrase) "not the American Way."

They must be talking about some other "America," an "America" that exists in a parallel universe, hidden away behind the walls of the "Racket club," or the "River Oaks Country Club." 

This "America," the one that most of us live in has had a graduated, progressive income tax as a feature of life and death for as long as any among us can remember.

Now, it is true that the denizens of that other, more exclusive "America" often manage to use the intricacies of the tax code in their favor so as to not pay very much income tax.  Warren Buffet's famous remark that his cook (or some such person) actually pays more tax than he does come easily to mind.  Nevertheless, a progressive income tax is what we have.

Does this mean that McCain opposes the progressive income tax?  Does he favor a flat tax or a "national consumption tax on steroids" as I do?

Are the Republicans serious when they mock poor Biden (ole foot in the mouf) for implying that paying taxes is patriotic?  Surely they do not mean that?  The US income tax is largely collected on the honor system-----  Hmmm.

Actually, we all know that the tax drivel is just irresponsible propaganda.  This too will pass.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_Income_tax

Trouble reaching SST?

I number of people are reporting difficulty in reaching SST.  How many?  pl

Outplayed again in Iraq?

"If the parliament refuses, Maliki would have "no choice" but to request a U.N. extension "because the American forces will lose their legal cover on Dec. 31," he told the Times of London in a weekend interview. "If that happens, according to international law, Iraqi law and American law, the U.S. forces will be confined to their bases and have to withdraw from Iraq," Maliki said.

U.S. officials do not dispute that the absence of an agreement would probably require an immediate end to combat operations and, at a minimum, confinement to bases on Jan. 1. Officials refused to discuss the sensitive issue on the record while negotiations are ongoing.

"I am actually reasonably optimistic we will come to closure on this in a very near future," Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters Friday as he returned from a five-day trip to Europe. A month earlier, on Sept. 8, Gates told Congress that he expected an agreement "within the next few weeks."

"But I had hoped that some weeks ago," Gates added.

Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi said yesterday that an accord is unlikely before the end of the year, citing the number of parties that must sign off on the deal. "I'm not sure that the time we have left is enough for all of these organizations to study it, revise it and agree on the text," Hashimi told McClatchy Newspapers.  Karen de Young

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Ah, the wily Saracens....

How does that piece of Kiplinesque doggerel go?

"It is not good for the Christian white

to hustle the Asian brown.

For the Christian riles and the Asian smiles

and he weareth the Christian down.

The end of the fight is a tombstone white

with the name of the late deceased and

the epitaph drear

"A fool lies here who tried to hustle the East."

So maybe Kipling didn't write it exactly like that.... I like it this way.

I have the following from our brother Al:

"What are the odds that what all this really means is that Maliki is planning to wait until the December 31^st deadline in order to avoid making this difficult political decision?  This would allow him, in effect, to plead that he is forced by circumstances beyond his control to order the United States out of Iraq.

Best, 

Al "

Pretty good thinking Al, pretty good.  I had thought earlier that Maliki and Company would cave in to US demands.  Seems like I was wrong.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/13/AR2008101302846.html

TA post on reading list.

Take a look.  pl

Merely An Observation

THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE!!

One of our correspondents who shares my measured optimism concerning the financial markets offers the following observations:

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Companies which have less than 20% debt/equity ratio and at least

$1B in cash, a track record of profitability, and ratios which suggest

they are adequately capitalized to meet their short and long-term

obligations are:

GOOG

AAPL

CEO

QCOM

MON

RIMM

LFC

GLW

ADBE

BEN

TCK

DOX

WFR

SAY

MSFT

Google and Apple each have north of $10B in cash and zero debt.

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The screen that was run to identify them was:

Cash > $1B

Debt/Equity > 10%

Return on Equity > 5%

Return on Assets > 5%

Current Ratio > 2

Quick Ratio > 1

Earnings Growth Next 5 Years > 5%

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AGAIN.  THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

I am not invested in any of the above listed companies.  pl

Dowd on Seneca

"The decline and fall of the American Empire echoes the experience of the Romans, who also tumbled into the trap of becoming overleveraged empire hussies.

As our sand-castle economy washes away under the tide of bad gambles and debts, this most self-indulgent society lurches toward stoicism (even bankrupt Iceland gives us the cold shoulder and turns to a solvent superpower). It’s going to require more than giving up constant infusions of stocks, Starbucks and Botox.

As Seneca, the Roman Stoic who advised treating the body “somewhat strictly,” wrote in a letter: “Avoid whatever is approved of by the mob, and things that are the gift of chance. Whenever circumstance brings some welcome thing your way, stop in suspicion and alarm ...They are snares. ... we think these things are ours when in fact it is we who are caught. That track leads to precipices; life on that giddy level ends in a fall.”

The study of Latin and Greek, with illuminations on morality, philosophy, mob rule and chariot races, reached a nadir in the greedy ‘80s and ‘90s, when it seemed irrelevant for kids who yearned to be investment bankers and high-tech millionaires. But now we’ve learned the hard way that greed is bad — avaritia mala est — and the classics have staged a comeback. Amo Latinam, so I was happy to see last week’s Times story about the soaring enrollment for Latin classes in New York." Dowd

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IRONY ALERT!   IRONY ALERT!

Seneca?  Marcus Aurelius?  Epictetus?  Surely we are too far gone for that.  Education?  Real education?  Learning that leads to "the proper study of mankind?"  Nah!  If you do that, you will end as a waiter, someone who brings drinks for the Masters of the Universe.

There's precious little of actual education around in a world of shallow people, people who experience every new thing as though example is not available that would illuminate the event.

Trade school!  That's the thing!  Marketing!  Yes!  Marketing is all!  "Branding!"  Yes!  Branding was good enough for Lincoln and Jefferson, was it not?  Why should it not be good enough for us?

Why indeed?    pl

END OF IRONY ALERT

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/12/opinion/12dowd.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoicism

"Playing with Fire"

"The McCain-Palin ticket has given toxic speeches accusing Obama of being a friend of terrorists, then released short, meek repudiations of some of the rough stuff, including McCain's call Friday to "be respectful." Back in February, the Arizona senator apologized for the "disparaging remarks" from a talk-radio host who sneered repeatedly about "Barack Hussein Obama" before a McCain rally. "We will have a respectful debate," McCain insisted afterward. But pretending to douse flames that you are busy fanning does not qualify as straight talk.

What I find most unconscionable is the refusal of the McCain-Palin tandem to publicly condemn the cries of "traitor," "liar," "terrorist" and (worst of all) "kill him!" that could be heard at recent rallies. McCain is perfectly capable of telling hecklers off. But not once did he or his running mate bother to admonish the people yelling these obscene -- and potentially dangerous -- words. They may not have been able to hear the slurs at the rallies, but surely they have had ample time since to get on camera and warn that this sort of ugliness has no place in an election season. But they have not. Simply calling Obama "a decent person" is not enough. "  Washpost

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Something happened that caused McCain to rebuke a woman at a rally who fumbled in frustration for words and then called Obama an "Arab."  McCain drew back from that and insisted to her that his opponent was a "decent man, a family man, with whom I disagree on some things."  The mob did not like that.  It hissed and cried out in frustration when denied its leader in hatred.  The mob had a right to be confused.  McCain had made no previous objection to this kind of talk.  The mob was puzzled.  Appeals to hatred of the "other" have been occurring at his rallies for a couple of weeks.  Something must have happened to change his attitude.  Did the Secret Service object to this incitement of violence?  Did some saner soul amongst the Republicans object?  Something happened.

The McCain/Palin base is now revealed as essentially nativist and "know nothing."

They howl for Obama's blood.

This is not Conservatism.  Barry Goldwater would be dismayed.

It is now clear that for many people in the United States, foreigners are indistinguishable in their variety.  East Asians, Muslim/Arabs, Africans, Europeans, and Latinos are the groups into which a lot of people sort "the other."  Canadians are generally thought to be shamming their foreignness.

For that woman in the upper Mid-West who fumbled for a word with which to describe Obama, the people who attacked us on 9/11 were Arab/Muslim/Black/terrorists.  For her there are no separate nations or countries in the Middle East and if there were, the differences among them would be unimportant.  For this woman, the idea is unattainable that there could be Arab Christians or a man who is; half black African, half white American, and a Christian.  The fact that he has an Arabic and Muslim middle name but is not an Arab or a Muslim is unapproachable for such people.  People like that are dangerous and there are a lot of them.

Someone will now protest that "Hussein" is a Swahili name.  Yeah?  So what.  Like a lot of words in Swahili it is a loan word from Arabic, as is the word "Swahili"   itself.  "Hussein" is not a Muslim name?  Baloney!  I have been around a lot and have never met anyone with the given name, Hussein, who was not a Muslim, but that does not make Barack Obama a Muslim.  He did not name himself.

And what if he were a Muslim?  What if he were a Jain, or a Sikh or a Baptist?  (The Baptist part was a joke.)

In any event. McCain should get his dogs under control.  He is truly playing with fire.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/10/AR2008101002456.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

MACVSOG Betrayal - again

"[Federal Register: October 9, 2008 (Volume 73, Number 197)]
[Notices]   
[Page 59613]
From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]
[DOCID:fr09oc08-63]   

=======================================================================
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DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Department of the Air Force


Active Duty Service Determinations for Civilian or Contratual
Groups

SUMMARY: On September 24, 2008, the Secretary of the Air Force, acting
as Executive Agent of the Secretary of Defense, determined that the
service of the group known as the ``Vietnamese Citizens Who Served in
Vietnam Under Contract With the U.S. Armed Forces and Were Assigned to
Reconnaissance Teams and Exploitation Forces Within the Military
Assistance Command, Studies and Observations Group (MACVSOG), Ground
Operations OP-35, Command and Control (C&C), From January 1964 to April
1972.''
  Shall not be considered ``active duty'' for purposes of all laws
administered by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA).

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Contact Mr. James D. Johnston at the
Secretary of the Air Force Personnel Council (SAFPC); 1535 Command
Drive, EE Wing, 3d Fl.; Andrews AFB, MD 20762-7002.

Bao-Anh Trinh,
Air Force Federal Register Liaison Officer.
[FR Doc. E8-23966 Filed 10-8-08; 8:45 am]

BILLING CODE 5001-05-P"

The four in the front are the kind of men that are disavowed in this decision.

These auxiliary American soldiers, not ARVN at all, were employed and led by USSF in cross-border recconnaissance and combat operaions against the NVA, Pathet Lao and Khmer Rouge.

USMACVSOG was a joint activity of the Department of Defense.  It was largely funded under a classified directive of the DoD that provided funds from a portion of the USAF budget.  Presumably that is why the Department of the Air Force was given this decision to make.  Since these soldiers were funded then under the Air Force budget, and were legally Air Force contract employees, their funding now might involve a transfer of USAF funds to the VA.  Since these men mean nothing to the Air Force, this decision by the "Air Force Persomnnel Council" bureaucrats was probably an easy one.

Before you ask, these men had nothing to do with the Phoenix Program.

We abandoned them all to their fate long ago.  I guess simple abandonment wasn't enough to do to them.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Studies_and_Observations_Group

Brad Sherman shoulda known better...

Congressman Sherman was interviewed on a radio talk show in Austin.  Listen to him talk about what he said on the floor of the House.

What he is saying is that one or more members of the House (Whips probably) told him that they had been told by other members of the House that there would be various bad and catastrophic results if there was a second failure to pass the Paulson bailout law.

He does not say that the Executuve Branch threatened anything like that.  His statement has nothing to do with anything that Northcom is doing.

He is basically talking about the kind of feckless nonsense the Congressmen say to eash other when trying to line up members for a vote.

Naomi Wolf?  A flake if ever there was one.  Her piece, linked to below, is a tissue of fantasy.

What is the matter with you people????  pl

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bH1mO8qhCs&NR=1

http://www.alternet.org/rights/101958/thousands_of_troops_are_deployed_on_u.s._streets_ready_to_carry_out_%22crowd_control%22/

The Bottom Approaches

As you probably know I think that 95% of the difficulties experienced recently in the markets is hokum based on the psychology of panic.

The recent panic among the ill educated but greed consumed trader class started with well intentioned mandates which directed the US banks to make mortgages to "red lined" populations.  That might have been harmless in a tightly regulated banking and investment system of systems, but the Bush Administration and their committed anti-regulation friends (in both parties) dumped the regulatory ballast over the side and freed the traders of any restraint.  The result was an orgy of speculative and trading excess in mortgages and mortgage derivatives that rode on a myriad of mortgages in the hands of many who could not possibly pay them off or even pay them at all for very long.

The bubble, like all bubbles, eventually burst, wiping out trillions in paper profits and some peoples' real money.  Confidence in the value of the banks declined following the realization of the potential worthlessness of the paper they were sitting on.  The contraction in credit between banks followed.

The panic in the trader class has been impressive.  It has been pumped up a lot by the trader fringe group employed by the financial media. 

But,  I think the bottom of the panicky slide is approaching.  A fire only burns so long as there is fuel.  The hedge fund managers and other such riff-raff have been busy de-leveraging themselves.  That means that they have been divesting assets in order to acquire cash with which to stabilize the companies that they run.  After all, the life style that enables them to stand at the bar in Ben Benson's and bellow boorishly to each other depends on money in the till.

We are nearing the bottom of the pile of fuel available.  The governments have done everything they could for the restoration of trading confidence.  The stage is set for the moment when investors and traders look around and see that huge, confidence devouring swings in the markets have eased.  At that moment it will be noticed that money is to be made at these prices and the game will resume.  pl

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/10/09/ap5530706.html

NORTHCOM? Calm Down.

"In a barely noticed development last week, the Army stationed an active unit inside the United States. The Infantry Division’s 1st Brigade Team is back from Iraq, now training for domestic operations under the control of US Army North, the Army service component of Northern Command. The unit will serve as an on-call federal response for large-scale emergencies and disasters. It’s being called the Consequence Management Response Force, CCMRF, or “sea-smurf” for short.

It’s the first time an active unit has been given a dedicated assignment to USNORTHCOM, which was itself formed in October 2002 to “provide command and control of Department of Defense homeland defense efforts.”"   Amy Goodman

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Hyper-ventilation is not a good thing.  Take a deep breath, everyone who is concerned about "sea-smurf."

In the obscure world of Army and armed forces function things are not always what they might seem to the outside observer.  I lived inside that system for many years. 

My analysis of how "sea smurf" came to be:

- First there was 9/11.  The national concern (hysteria?) about homeland security led to many precipitous actions, i.e., the Patriot Act, the Department of Homeland Security, Guantanamo, etc.

- The Defense Department looked around in the context of those times and decided that there was no headquarters that existed that had the mission to plan for US domestic emergencies and to coordinate resources across the Department of Defense for employment in support of civil authority in the event of such crises.  The individual services, the  Army for example, had headquarters that could do that but there was not an interservice headquarters.  Many people in the civilian world may have some difficulty understanding why the military is so focused on unified commands and joint planning.  It is a feature of military culture that has evolved from hard experience of failure in the absence of such a focus.

Round 2 tonight

"Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama have revealed certain debating styles over the last year or so, and those approaches are likely to be evident again tonight. Watch for Mr. McCain to present a hotter, more confrontational persona, while Mr. Obama will show his cooler self, both in the sense of remaining unruffled and in staying at more of a remove from the audience."  Seeley - NY Times

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This is going to be about style.  McCain looked medicated last time out of the barn.  That might be a good idea this time also.  One of his boyhood nicknames was "McNasty."  OK.  Bring on the tranquilizers.  Washington abounds with first and second hand stories of McNasty's outbursts.  I hear them every day here "inside the beltway."  (I actually do live about half a mile inside the beltway in the "People's Republic of Alexandria")   A face to face with Obama is going to be a real test for McCain.  We will see how well he can tolerate anyone he sees as competition.

Those who think that Obama should display a lot of "passion" and aggression tonight are going to be disappointed.  The man is what he is.  He has spent many years becoming a dispassionate intellectual.  He is a thinker, first, last and always.  If he tries to be something else on stage it will look false.  We should want a president who thinks rather than emotes as a way of doing business. Think about the possible consequences of unbridled emotion in the White House.

I think Obama will do very well tonight.  pl

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/07/watch-to-watch-for-during-round-2/?hp

Saudi mediation for Afghanistan

"Next week it will be seven years since the war on terror was officially launched when the US military, with British support, unleashed a devastating bombardment on 31 al-Qaeda and Taliban targets in Afghanistan.

But despite the heroic efforts of coalition forces and the deployment of vast resources, the West appears no closer to achieving its long-term objective of eradicating the threat posed by Islamist groups and helping to turn failed states into ones capable of sustaining democratic government based on the rule of law."  Telegraph

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If an agreement can be worked out that does not return Afghanistan to medieval barbarism under Taliban versions of Shariah such an agreement might be useful to the Coalition.

The war in Afghanistan is not going very well.  The Coalition needs to reduce its profile and expenditures for a variety of reasons.  Taliban interest in talking about a "deal" with the Karzai government indicates that they, too, are hurting in the war.

The neocons want to make Afghanistan into a Western clone.  They wanted that in Iraq as well.  They will not get what they want in either place. 

A truce of some kind with the Taliban would enable the Coalition to concentrate on its worthwhile objective in Central Asia.  This is the extirpation of takfiri internationalism in the region.

Pakistan is a looming problem of potentially vast proportion.  The Afghanistan problem should be dealt with on the basis of Afghan internal politics and their application to coalition goals.  (See my earlier piece on engaging the tribes)

In any event, the neocons would be so unhappy about such a development that the entertainment value of such an event would be desirable for that reason alone.  pl

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/10/03/do0304.xml

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban

Lang's Fearless Forecast

Obama/Biden will win election comfortably.  The "Perfect Storm" has emerged to consign McCain's hopes to the "dust bin of history."  The economy, the burden of Republican disunity, the Bush era, the doubts bout McCain's temperament.  These are all greater burdens than any ticket could carry to victory.  That will be the end of McCain.  It will be interesting to see if he remains a significant figure in the senate.  Palin?  When they lose not even McCain will answer her phone calls.

In the House, the Democrats will increase their majority.

In the Senate, the same thing will occur.  There the Democrats will pick up less than ten seats.

I am not altogether pleased with this outcome.  Power corrupts, etc.  This is too much power for one party, any party.

To add to this wealth of power, there will be retirements on the left from SCOTUS.

Too much power.  Too much.  pl

http://www.minnpost.com/ericblack/2008/09/24/3627/us_senate_races_a_perfect_storm_would_give_democrats_a_filibuster-proof_senate_majority

Olmert- Too Late! Too Late!

"He said that traditional Israeli defense strategists had learned nothing from past experiences and that they seemed stuck in the considerations of the 1948 war of independence.

“With them, it is all about tanks and land and controlling territories and controlled territories and this hilltop and that hilltop,” he said. “All these things are worthless.”

He added, “Who thinks seriously that if we sit on another hilltop, on another hundred meters, that this is what will make the difference for the State of Israel’s basic security?”

Over the last year, Mr. Olmert has publicly castigated himself for his earlier right-wing views and he did so again in this interview. On Jerusalem, for example, he said: “I am the first who wanted to enforce Israeli sovereignty on the entire city. I admit it. I am not trying to justify retroactively what I did for 35 years. For a large portion of these years, I was unwilling to look at reality in all its depth.”"  Ethan Bronner

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I remember Olmert when he was deputy mayor of Jerusalem under that great and good man, Teddy Kollek.  He would sit in meetings brooding over Kollek's clear willingness to think of himself as the mayor of all the people of Jerusalem/Yarushalayim/Al-Quds.  He did not like that attitude.  His own attitude of chilly indifference to people other than his own was patent.

Now he wants to make peace.  NOW he wants it.  It is unfortunate that he did not experience this "conversion" before he allowed himself to be compromised by people who surely do not want to see accommodation in the Holy Land.

When he speaks of the Israelis as a people who have lost a sense of proportion about themselves he speaks the truth.  That delusion lies at the heart of much that is otherwise inexplicable.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/world/middleeast/30olmert.html?scp=4&sq=ETHAN%20BRONNER&st=cse

Will "Paulson" money flee the country?

"Dear Col.

Here is an idea for discussion on SST.

Questions:

If the bailout is approved, what is to keep the bailout money in the US?

Will the bailout result in a massive transfer of investment money out of the U.S?

What is to keep the international markets from importing junk into the US, cashing it for above market prices at the Treasury, and then exporting huge sums of money received to foreign countries?

Given the broad latitude for choice of assets purchased under the bailout, is there any real certitude that the money disbursed would help US institutions. The bill contains no provision limiting the mortgages and other bad assets to instruments secured by US realty.

Won't most of the money go overseas and do very little here?

Isn't it logical that once the traders start trading the securities destined for the bailout, that it is internationalized and can not be directed to help US institutions?

Just some thoughts from WP.

I enjoy your blog.

WP"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_economic_crisis_(1999%E2%80%932002)

Paulson's bill passes - now what?

"It is impossible to predict the final cost of the bailout but officials insist it will be far less than $700 billion. Because the Treasury will purchase and then resell assets, potentially at a higher price, there is a chance the program will break even or perhaps turn a profit.

The deal provides for tight oversight by two boards, including an independent Congressional panel. And requires the government to use its status as an large-scale owner of distressed, mortgage-backed securities to take more aggressive steps to prevent foreclosures.

The bill also seeks to limit the pay of executives of some companies that sell bad debt to the government, including restrictions on so-called “golden parachute” retirement plans.

It also provides several taxpayer protections, including a mechanism for the government to take an equity stake, in the form of stock warrants, in some of the firms that seek government help, which will give taxpayers a chance to make money should the companies profit in the months and years ahead.

And, if the rescue plan has lost money after five years, the bill requires the president to submit a plan to Congress for recouping the losses from the financial industry, perhaps through fees or a tax on securities transactions. "  NY Times

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With the provisions described in the last two paragraphs above, the bill is minimally aceptable.

Let us all hope that it does act to "unstick' the credit markets.  The passage of the House version of the bill was immediately followed by admissions on the part of many of those who had led the hysterical demands for the bill that they were uncertain that the new law would affect very much.

In the last few days there have been more and more indications that the claims that "main street" was deeply threatened have been exagerated or at least anticipatory rather than actual.

The financial media have done very poorly in all of this.  Very poorly indeed.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/04/business/economy/04bailout.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hp&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1223057039-KO1bcp56XbWIW47ZIpvplg

"Tribal engagement in Afghanistan"

"...facet of the Iraq strategy that McKiernan doubts can be duplicated in Afghanistan is the US military's programs to recruit tribes to oppose insurgents. That effort, begun in 2006 in Iraq's Anbar province, led a loose coalition of tribes to turn against the Sunni insurgent group al Qa'ida in Iraq and side with the U.S. military. It was expanded in early 2007 in a U.S. military effort to hire local tribesmen and former insurgents to serve as armed guards in their neighborhoods. In Iraq, nearly 100,000 of the volunteers, primarily Sunnis, are on the job. "  Wash Post

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"Tribal engagement in Afghanistan is also vital, McKiernan said, but it must be carried out through the Afghan government and not by the U.S. military.

"I don't want the (US?) military to be engaging the tribes," he said. Given Afghanistan's complicated system of rival tribes and ethnic groups and the recent history of civil war, allying with the wrong tribe risks rekindling internecine conflict, he said. "It wouldn't take much to go back to a civil war." "  Wash Post

********************************************************************

General McKiernan is someone deserving of respect.  He was the coalition ground force commander for the invasion of Iraq.  His principled resistance to Rumsfeld's demands for an excessively small troop list for Iraq was impressive.

There clearly are not enough US ground troops in Afghanistan.  The lack of enough force is limiting action severely and causing troops to be spread across the landscape in such a way that tactical risk is markedly increased.  The same phenomenon increases reliance on air power for the fire support needed to redeem bad situations. 

Nevertheless, I think McKiernan is looking at the situation in Afghanistan in an unrealistic way. 

Afghanistan is a country dominated by tribal loyalties and structures.  No matter what the State Department or his political scientist advisers may tell him, those loyalties and lifeways are not going to change much any time soon.  The US government is rotten with the political science inspired notion that societies evolve and "progress" in the direction of the creation of geographically logical centralized states.  This is merely a theory.  It was created to provide a satisfactory (to some)explanation of European history.

The Afghan government of today is merely one of the many "players" in the complex socio-political situation in Afghanistan.  If the United States backs the Karzai government with the idea of creating a highly centralized state in Afghanistan, then it is going down the road to re-creating the same social chaos that led to several years of ferocious tribal and factional revolt in Iraq.

Afghanistan is never going to be the kind of country that the neocons would like to see.  Success in Afghanistan will require a realistic use (manipulation if you prefer) of the actual playing pieces on the board of Afghan Chess.

Can the existing Afghan government adequately engage its tribal and clan competitors and adversaries?  I doubt it.  The ability to coordinate the efforts of varied tribal entities often depends on a certain independence of interest. 

TE Lawrence is back in fashion.  We seem to have missed this lesson that his example teaches.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/01/AR2008100100789.html

The "Deal" is not good enough yet...

Stripped of the "Bells and Whistles," the "Christmas Tree Ornaments," and other distractors, the basic bailout remains an arrangement in which the government of the US would:

- Buy bundles of securitized mortgage paper of various kinds from those willing to sell them.  These bundles would be bought for prices greater than their current value (why else would they be sold?) but less than they cost the sellers. (Again, why else....)

- The government will hold the paper until some of it evaluates to a level at which commercial buyers on a preferred list (not just anyone!  You there!  Forget it!) will be established.  The government will then sell the evaluated paper for less than it is then worth.  The rest of the paper? (the worthless part) Who knows? I would bet that the government (you and me) eats that part.

- The buyers of the "good" paper will then seek to enforce the terms of the loans.  Why else would they have bought it?

What a good deal for the taxpayer.

We are told that this crisis is about "main street" and not "Wall Street" and that it is about credit shrinkage, not the value of companies like Goldman Sachs where Paulson still has a lot of his money in a "blind" trust.   Financial media anchors plead desperately for proletarian plebeian understanding of the immediacy of the threat to every day life.  On one CNBC today, the winsome anchor trembled at the story of a woman in California who runs and owns an olive products business.  Her enterprise has been a success over the last years and she wants to expand through increased staffing and marketing.  Sadly, she went to the local banks and was turned down for a quarter million dollar loan.  This is a sad thing.  Sigh.  Sigh.  At the very end of the story the network felt obliged to add that after this story had been run earlier in the day, the olive merchant had received many calls from private investors and a couple of banks offering to loan her the money.  Anecdotal?  Yes, but much of what is being said about the end of credit operations is worse than anecdotal. It is mere rumor mongering and scare tactics.

The "Bells and Whistles" in the "rescue plan" are such nifty things as increased FDIC insurance limits, and an improvement of the AMT situation.  It is quite openly admitted that the "sweeteners" are just that.  They are designed to provide cover for members of the House in order to enable them to face voters in their constituencies.  The citizenry seems to be widely hostile to the basic deal that I outlined.  The citizenry is referred to with thinly concealed contempt by the financial media, most politicians and a lot of bloggers.  Well, the financial media speak for traders, not taxpayers.  Their reverential attitude toward people like Buffet is revealing.  Buffet is the proud owner of five billion dollars (newly purchased) of Goldman Sachs debt.  He said today that if the bailout is not passed he will have made a very bad bet.  We should take his advice about this?

The framers of the the Constitution deliberately created a system in which the House of Representatives is elected every two years and represents constituencies of a size that make members more vulnerable to the citizenry than the senate.  The Constitution also requires that all revenue bills originate in the House.

To overcome that "difficulty" Senator Dodd and friends have arranged to vote on a cleverly shaped non-revenue bill filled with "meatiness."  The purpose of this exercise is clearly to chivvy the House along into compliance with the received wisdom of the elites (and the moneyed).

If we accept the claim that the credit markets are in severe danger, then we citizens should demand a better deal for accepting a role.  Equity in the companies we are going to save is one possibility.  Alternatively, Paul O'Neill has recommended a federal guarantee for the value of the presently rotten paper so that it will trade like money.  That would be another way out that would not put taxpayers directly at risk.  The alternatives that do not depend on taxpayer exploitation have not been developed.

Citizen voters should remember what happens in the next few days.  pl