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26 September 2008

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Drongo

It seems to me over here outside the USA that Mr Obama's cool detatchedness in the face of this crisis is the most sensible, wisest and indeed presidential approach to adopt to this crisis. He does not and should not seem to endorse Pres. Bush's apparent attempt to blackmail your nation into rushing through a piece of legislation that is deeply unpopular with the taxpaying electorate. He appears detatched, quiet, non-committal and free of any commitments or promises that would have to be kept once he becomes (as he surely shall) president.At the same time he is not challenging the President and his policies by going for the populist option that would make him vulnerable to the attacks of the rabid right wing redneck tendency whose instinct is to destroy unthinkingly any intellectual with liberal tendencies - any "uppity nigger" who has the effrontery think he can control the destiny of their country. I get the impression that over here in Europe, the present shenanigans in Wall Street and Washington will damage Mr McCain's already low reputation and that the great majority here, if they had the had the vote in your presidential elections would go for Mr Obama.

Cold War Zoomie

I want a poker player at the negotiating table with Putin.

Many months ago I recommended this fellow for president!

Anyone for a friendly game of chance?

swampy

"swampy, there is always Ralph Nader. Look at where all the votes for him got us. But at least you can wash your hands of 'responsibility'."

Fred,
I believe it's the political parties responsibility to get it's own candidate elected. My responsibilty is to vote for whom I think would be best suited for the position. If they can't select a candidate that I like, why should I vote for them?

Cold War Zoomie

I think it's a miracle in itself that Obama is doing as well as he is!

When he was born Jim Crow was still alive.

The fact that he has done this well only 44 years after passage of the Civil Rights Act is astounding.

That's what I see when I read the polls.

John Howley

On crypto-racism. I assume this is a reference to the "Bradley effect" which is discussed thoroughly here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect.

It is important to understand this because it is one of several factors that can introduce error or distortion into poll results as compared to actual election results.

Needless to say, with both a major candidate who is Black and all the usual shenanigans, the legitimacy of the outcome may come under more scrutiny than usual (usual?).

So, Obama's race may be reducing the Democratic lead in national opinion polls (which are of limited value because the outcome is determined by the Electoral College but that's another story). However, THAT reduced lead is NOT the Bradley effect.

The Bradley effect comes into play on election day when we learn that while some hypothetically accurate poll gave him a vote share of say 56 percent, the vote outcome was 50 percent.

The Bradley Effect means that any Obama polling lead must be discounted by...six or seven points, according to some.

Andrew Hacker discusses race and the election in the New York Review of Books:
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21771.

We will hear much, much more about this issue.

Mark Logan

I feel like Leonardo:

"Between the expressions of laughter and weeping there is no difference in the motion of the features," Leonardo da Vinci wrote in his posthumously published Treatise on Painting, "either in the eyes, mouth or cheeks.” With the difference between the physical expression of emotions so subtle, artists had a challenge on their hands: How to differentially depict, in the words of Sir Joshua Reynolds, the "frantic joy of a Bacchante and the grief of a Mary Magdalen"?

Paul

When Obama ran in the New Hampshire Primary his speeches employed words and cadence reminiscent of a pastor preaching in church. Many staid Yankees were taken by his enthusiasm. He has not used that type of delivery in the campaign for obvious reasons.

That being said, I find Obama not only calm but consistent and alert. Isn’t that a wonderful change? We had a faceless and humble peanut farmer; followed by an actor who was actually senile in his second term; then came a dull-as-pig-iron rich guy; a frat-boy with manners; and a stupid and drunken frat-boy who still cannot find his ass with both hands

Obama sounds like an adult compared to those who came before him in that office. He does not need fireworks or heavy breathing to make his point. One has to listen to fully appreciate what he conveys. I don’t agree with everything he says, but he does not and will not shout. It should be reassuring to most, but to many (perhaps too many), he’s just another crazy “you know what”.

He’s as mellow as the “stuntman” is outrageous.


Will

Mon Col. s'addresse le meme probleme profounde.

Maybe he has given a different articulation.

James Zogby, the famous pollster has pointed out the same problem. He says this election should not be this close give the democras' advantages. B. Husein Obama . has not closed the sale.

He predicts it will either remain close or it will break into an electoral college route for J. Sidney McCain three sticks (III).


just google following to find story
"pollster election landslide"

mlaw230

Ronald Reagan beat Carter 50 to 41, i.e by 9%, and won 44 states. It was a blowout.

Obama appears to be ahead by about 5-6 right now and McCain's numbers are dropping like a brick. Add to that the real possibility that the polls are skewed, that folks over 60 or so are going to have a very real problem voting for non-caucasian, and that approximately 30% would vote for any candidate the Republicans put up, suggests that Obama is doing just fine.

Barring a truly horrendous blunder, or tragedy, and he should win comfortably.

Grumpy

There is only one poll that really counts. There are many people in this Country, who still believe a vote is a very private matter. People taking polls, I ask them the first question. Does this poll have anything to do with voting? If yes, that is the end of the discussion and "DO NOT CALL BACK!" How does somebody get this way? I have found most polls are manipulative and not open-ended. Grumpy, have you ever voted for a "third-party" candidate? YES! I have never even considered not voting, this will be my 39th election, voting started at the age of 21. My Father had a rule in the house, if you don't vote, don't complain, you made it this way!

V/R - Grumpy

Marcus

Obama is an avid basketball player. Are great basketball players the highly emotional and volatile types, like Charles Barkley? (Probably one of the greatest talents in the game but never led a team to the championship)

No the great ones, (think Jordan, Jabar, West) were calm, cool, and collected when the going gets tough and the game is on the line.

Tyler

"Independent voters" are as much a problem as anything, wanting to be pandered and coddled and shifting with every political wind. You want to know why politics is so pandering? Because of the mythical "independent centrist" voter who gets trotted out every election cycle that will instantly run into the arms of whoever is promising the bigger unicorn.

Also, when was Palin elected Govenor of Alaska? I was stationed in USARAK (United States Army Alaska) for four and a half years, and I don't believe I ever met the governor of Alaska. In all my remembrances, it was the LIEUTENANT govenor who was considered "Commander of the Alaskan National Guard" at all the deployment/redeployment ceremonies I ever stood at parade rest through, not the governor.

Anyone care to confirm that little bit?

Will

from the CBSNEWS blog site some early debate news

remember Karl Rove opines the first debate is the most important

" CBS News and Knowledge Networks conducted a nationally representative poll of approximately 500 uncommitted voters reacting to the debate in the minutes after it happened.

These figures are still preliminary and could change as more respondents complete the survey. But here's what we have so far:

Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw. "

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