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10 July 2008

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mo

I daresay, knowing Syrian guile, that they are not looking to replace the relationship they have with Iran (which I don't believe they will ever give up on - the Iranians have no AIPAC to "suddenly" cause a change of heart in the Presidency).

Rather, they will be doing what they always do. Try to promote themselves as the peacemaker, the perfect go-between, the guys both sides can talk to, at a price of course.

Of course, you are right. Now that the the US and Israel have "proved" that Syria had a WMD program by bombing it, Syria can surrender this program.

The old citadel in Halab is also worth a visit.

mo

I daresay, knowing Syrian guile, that they are not looking to replace the relationship they have with Iran (which I don't believe they will ever give up on - the Iranians have no AIPAC to "suddenly" cause a change of heart in the Presidency).

Rather, they will be doing what they always do. Try to promote themselves as the peacemaker, the perfect go-between, the guys both sides can talk to, at a price of course.

Of course, you are right. Now that the the US and Israel have "proved" that Syria had a WMD program by bombing it, Syria can surrender this program.

The old citadel in Halab is also worth a visit.

Leila Abu-Saba

I'm planning a trip to Syria in October, barring war or economic collapse. I want to go see my family in Lebanon, and I want to see Damascus in this lifetime. Now is my chance.

There are some monasteries, including Maloula (sp?) to which my family members make pilgrimages. They insist I must go, since prayers are being said for me in all these places. I will probably go to at least one, but have to map out travel times - I have limited energy for car rides and winding roads.

I don't have to agree with a government's leaders and their policies in order to visit a country - I live in the USA, don't I? At this point only all-out war will make me cancel my travel plans.

Kieran

The Syrians are not going to sacrifice their Iranian alliance, their WMD, or any of their other less salubrious activities on the side for the sake of a 'relationship' with the US - whatever that is worth to them, at this point. They are already having growing success in breaking out of isolation without US assistance, and they have enough confidence in their pivotal position to believe that the Europeans will soften up sooner or later (as France is doing now). Moreover, the Hariri investigation has hit a dead end and everyone knows it.

What is going on right now between Syria and Israel is tactical in nature. Israel is seriously contemplating bombing Iran, and is trying to shore things up on its borders to limit Iran's retaliation options to firing some Shihabs and/or hitting the Americans in the Gulf and Iraq. Syria is talking peace to keep its head low during any firing, and to spur its reentry into the international community (whether or not that includes America).

As to whether these talks mature into anything more serious like a Golan deal, peace treaty, warming of US ties, and Syrian severance of ties with Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas etc.... that is much less clear. It is not impossible or even unlikely in the long run, but it is probably some ways away yet. The Syrians would need to feel considerably more secure about Israel and US intentions than they do now, to take such a risk as to burn their only real strategic bridge. Conspiracy theories are rife. This is not the atmosphere for Assad to shake Olmert's hand.

The Syrians are waiting for two things before making any big strategic decisions: 1. to evaluate the next administration and 2. to see how the US, Israel, Iran thing plays out. Until then, everything remains tactical.

As for visiting Syria, spending a day getting lost in the old city of Damascus is a must. At night, go to mount Qasyun and take in the city. Salahadeen castle is also very atmospheric.

zanzibar

I don't understand why the Syrians would ditch their alliance with Iran and Hizballah to get an ephemeral pat on the back from us fickle Americans. I'm sure they know that AIPAC pulls the strings around DC and that pat could become a slap at moments notice.

Maybe there's more nuance than my pea brain gets.

I guess all the neo-cons are wetting their pants with eagerness and anticipation of an Israeli strike on Iran with a follow-up forced retaliation by the US that carpet bombs Iran. I will be really surprised if that happens as I believe that there are at least a few saner heads in our nation's capital. But with the traitors in charge I suppose anything is possible but seriously...

Trent

"Yes. The Syrians want a relationship to replace that which they have with Syria." I think you mean "Iran."

The suq in Damascus is worth a visit for the doors alone. Somebody will know about this: isn't it one of the few straight/vertical or non-labyrinthine suqs in the ME?

John Howley

Syria is unlikely to agree a peace deal with Israel without assurances from Washington that it would also be removed from the US list of "state sponsors of terrorism."

Which status carries serious disabilities under US law.

This gives Washington a veto.

Guam Guy

Col.,

When talking about tourism in Syria, don't forget Palmyra, Apamea and the norias of Hama (without forgetting the reason there's a park in the center of town).

JohnH

Restoring Syria to the good graces of the Bush administration would require it to kiss Bush's ring and allow US firms to get all rights to oil and gas pipelines from the Persian Gulf. Anything more than nominal profit/control of the pipeline would be a non-starter, even though the West desperately needs to break the Turk/Russian monopoly on pipeline routes routes.

Leila Abu-Saba

Not to brag or anything (ok, to brag) but I have family connections in Damascus, in the old Christian quarter *I believe*. My cousin married into an old Damascene Christian family and my uncle has promised to take me to visit them. The family name is also quite well-known in Lebanon but I don't want to go around claiming political connections, it's too far a stretch. These families are enormous and far-flung. I'm just hoping they live in an old house or area, not a new apartment block.

David W.

Leila, when you go, be sure to ask at the Syrian border if they would kindly not stamp your passport--that will help avoid the matter upon your return to the US.

Godspeed on your journey!

dano

The president of Syria will be the special guest of the president of France (currently also the president of the European Union) on 14 July, Bastille Day. This is a special celebration en la France. That goes a ways towards rehabilitation in the international community.

Clifford Kiracofe

Isn't there a substantial amount of investment money heading into Syria from the Gulfies?

Have Assad and his wife been noted as low key tourists in Qatar, for example, from time to time?

Kieran

There is an enormous amount of money coming into Syria from the Gulf. Even Saudi investment has been on the rise despite all the political problems.

So much for isolation!

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