Israel plans to "correct" the Iran NIE

"In his remarks — Israel's harshest criticism yet of the U.S. report — Avi Dichter said the assessment also cast doubt on American intelligence in general, including information about Palestinian security forces' crackdown on militant groups. The Palestinian action is required as part of a U.S.-backed renewal of peace talks with Israel this month.

Dichter cautioned that a refusal to recognize Iran's intentions to build weapons of mass destruction could lead to armed conflict in the Middle East.

He compared the possibility of such fighting to a surprise attack on Israel in 1973 by its Arab neighbors, which came to be known in Israel for the Yom Kippur Jewish holy day on which it began.

"The American misconception concerning Iran's nuclear weapons is liable to lead to a regional Yom Kippur where Israel will be among the countries that are threatened," Dichter said in a speech in a suburb south of Tel Aviv, according to his spokesman, Mati Gil. "Something went wrong in the American blueprint for analyzing the severity of the Iranian nuclear threat.""  Yahoo News

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Yup.  Tail wags dog.  Mouse gives diving eagle the finger.  Dog bites the hand, etc.

Israeli intelligence has been the foster child of American government for so long it is impossible to remember when anything was different.  I suppose before '56....  Maybe.

The reference to the "Yom Kippur War" is amusing since the surprise experienced by Israel was entirely the product of their own analytic failure.

In any event, now they have a satellite or two and they have arrived at their own theory of the state of mind of the Iranians.  In that context, their officials speak grandly of "the American misconception of Iran's nuclear weapons."  My.  My.

In fact what happened is that the US intelligence community punctured the balloon of illusion concerning Iran's programs  That balloon had been skilfully painted in gaudy colors that fit the Israeli "misconception" of the world.  Now there is unbridled rage among the Jacobins, the Cheneyites and the Israeli government over an unexpected failure.

I hear that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is going to make a visit to Israel.  The Israelis actually say that they will make a maximum pitch to him for repudiation of the intelligence community's work.  That should be interesting since a lot of the intelligence community belongs to the Defense Department.

Then, there is the visit of the president, supposed to occur in January.  Israelis  have told me that he must be going there to coordinate the next moves in the Iran game.  I told them that they should believe that his trip is connected to a renewed peace process.

They found that amusing.  They do not believe there really is a peace process.  pl

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071215/ap_on_re_mi_ea/israel_us_iran

Comments

[Cloned Poster]

Check the underside of our automobile any time you have cause to use it, for starters.

[Will]

Our own UN Ambassador, Khalizad al Afghani, is simpatico w/ Dicther. Friday Lunch Club links to a 12.13.2007 Haaretz article which reports:

" The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Zalmay Khalilzad, addressed the National Intelligence Estimate on the Iranian nuclear program on Thursday, saying that the United States "scored a [soccer] goal" against itself.

Khalilzad's remarks were made during a speech Thursday morning at the Union of Reform Judaism's biennial convention in San Diego, California. "

In the same Haaretz article one cannot miss the irony of a politico injecting himself into intelligence while decrying such crap. Team B redux below:

"Republican Senator John Ensign plans to introduce legislation to create a bipartisan commission to produce an alternative report on the same intelligence.

"We just see politics injected into this," said Tory Mazzola, Ensign's spokesman. "When it comes to national security we really need to remove politics. We're saying, let's take a second look "

Lincoln at one time quoted Jesus "a house divided against itself cannot stand." Jesus used this to refute the charge that he was exorcising demons w/ satanic aid. Lincoln's use was in a different context which certainly applies here. Civil War in the U.S. gov't.

[Charles I]

Well, here's the WAPO chiming in with Joseph Weisberg letting the hoi-polloi know that basically, all spies are liars, probably double agents, so don't believe any of it under "Why Is Spying So Hard?"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/14/AR2007121401519.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

I find a somewhat reliable measure of where things stand by the tenor of the slugs at Debkafile.

They are in full hysterical panic mode.

I am actually beginning to believe that the penny may have dropped, the emperor has no clothes, and that the tipping point of a gigantic pile of bs about to cascade down upon the pilers has, or soon will be, passed.

[stanley Henning]

Who is the client state? We need to distance ourselves from these guys. There really appears to be a major push to get the US to precipitate another, even larger and more disastrous conflict. Under such conditions it is not hard to see why Iran would want a nuclear capability. Israel naturally wants us to pull the trigger and they know the Neocons would like to oblige. We have met the enemy and they are us if we let Israel maneuver us into this one.

[Martin K]

Oy Vey. The apocalyptics are in charge of Israel. Shite is about to hit the fan, as we say over here.

Why in the lords name is it not possible for the US to keep a tighter grip on Israel, and force them to concessions.? They defy UN measures every day.

[Mad Dogs]

An additional factor to "bet" on is the likelihood that whomever gets elected as the 44th President come November 08, regardless if it be Democrat or Republican, will continue the "kowtow" tail-wags-dog foreign policy towards Israel as has been the bi-partisan accommodation since its birth.

The fat lady hasn't finished singing, nor will she go away.

A seemingly permanent state of paranoia has subsumed "rational" Israeli foreign policy thought and politics.

Yes, even a paranoid has enemies, but that doesn't make the paranoid any less paranoid.

The Neocon/Likud/Flathead dominance in both Israel and American foreign policy politics is not dead, but merely catching its breath. War with Iran is still very much on the table.

They (the Israelis) only have to win once, while we (the Americans) have to win every time.

[Babak Makkinejad]

All:

I would like to pose the following questions:

1- Why does US care so much about Israel [note the lobbying to get that state created in 1948, Nixon's alert in 1973]?

2- Is this a religious issue for the American people - the Protestants I hasten to add?

3- Is there a formal defense treaty between US and Israel?

4- If there is no such treaty, would it be politically possible for US to offer such a treaty to Israel on the condition that she has well-defined borders that are internationally recognized?

5- If such a treaty exists, what is US committed to do in defense of Israel?

[McGee]

Pat,

I'm with you. Let's have hearings - lots and lots of them. (I'm probably a thread or two late with this - please forgive!) Have never been prouder of the intelligence community. Let's all hope they maintain their spine. Also think it reflects well on General Hayden who certainly could have quashed this (think Porter Goss here....). Makes earlier praise which Jim Bamford wrote about Hayden and his reputation at NSA (pre-Iraq war) and which I for one began to question a year or two ago, now ring perhaps very true indeed.

[arbogast]

Money.

The Jewish community in the United States wields unbelievable financial power, and money wins elections...legally and illegally.

Money is the God in which the United States trusts.

The entire US has been brainwashed. We believe in the Mall.

[Will]

Just No.'s 1&3 for now

1. w/o the need for allies b/c of their wealth, position, % influence (but they have surplus allies), have already addressed the IQ shift (115 average for US Ashkenazi) which leads to one out of very four Americans w/ an IQ over 140 being a Jewish-American. Most appear blind and reflexive Israeli supporters.

3. An informal defense treaty is already there. Uri Avnery puts the matter in a better perspective, "the tail wags the dog, and the dog wags the tail." Irak was invaded, in part, b/c of Israel and the Iran project is, in part, Israel driven.

Krauthammer, the wheelchair bound psychiatrist-lawyer pundit flathead, tells the truth for once:

" And what were Nixon's outer acts vis-a-vis Jews? Well, in 1973, he saved Israel from possible destruction with his massive weapons airlift during the Yom Kippur[(October 73] War. He even put the U.S. military on worldwide alert to keep the Russians from intervening on Egypt's behalf. "

Nixon On the Couch

see the wiki on
Operation_Nickel_Grass

w/o that massive American resupply, some say, the IDF would have had to resort to their nukes.

[Visitor]

This question was asked, "Is this a religious issue for the American people - the Protestants I hasten to add?"

Only those Protestants that tend to be modern day pre-millennial dispensationalists (rapture) in their theology. The best known is Pastor John Hagee out of San Antonio.

[arbogast]

I should add that after their experience in Lebanon, the Israeli's are looking harder than ever for shleppers to take over the dirty work in the Middle East.

Recall: Israel's vaunted army is the best in the Middle East. Israel has nuclear weapons. And the Sunni dictatorships that fear Iran are in Israel's pocket: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc.

But, somehow, the Israeli's just don't want to do it themselves. It's shlepping, and they don't shlep.

So American boys and girls have to get killed for them, to keep them safe.

[Cieran]

Many thanks to Babak for asking the right questions here...

As far as Question (2), this is definitely a religious issue for Americans, and especially those of the conservative Protestant variety. The dispensationalists are a good example of this emerging Protestant/Israeli coalition, with their associated beliefs regarding the need for a revival of a Jewish state in all of former Israel.

Non-denominational Protestants often embrace dispensationalist beliefs (as I discovered when I moved to the Bible Belt and learned from my Evangelical friends of my great talent for papist apostasy), so this affection for a greater Israel is quite common among Protestants. Many well-known Evangelical figures (e.g., Jerry Falwell) have advanced the goals of the dispensationalist movement.

And the whole Left-Behind school of literature (*cough*) is found along the edges of this larger religious subculture.

[Sidney O. Smith III]

Avi Dichter’s response to the NIE report is like manna from heaven. It gives Americans hope. 07 is turning out to be a very grand year.

And Dichter’s response sure did bring a lot of laughter, as the news just gets better and better. When it comes to the art of statecraft, the GOI of late just doesn’t get it, if they ever did at all. It is like watching Michael Jordan play baseball -- a misapplication of talent. Dichter, who looks like Mel Brooks to me, should write comedy. He has that kind of talent.

The more publicity that the NIE garners, the greater the odds that the most recent NIE report will assume historical significance, perhaps on the same magnitude as Kennan’s “X” article. It looks to represent the beginning of a paradigm shift that started within the US intel community.

Proximate causation in history, at least to me, is not linear. It works more like a stone thrown in a pond that creates waves moving outward. This NEI report may effect history in the same way, and all for the better. It is a gift to the American people and those who believe in the experience of E Pluribus Unum. I sure hope the people take note. Congressional hearings would help.

Perhaps one day -- if the NIE report does send the neoconservatives hurtling deeper into their death throes -- the American people should consider commissioning a sculptor to create a statue to commemorate the accomplishment of the US intel community in 07. Their work shredded the most dangerous manifesto to arise in the American experience in awhile -- “Leo Strauss and the World of Intelligence (By Which we do not mean Nous).”

“By which we do not mean Nous”. You got that right…totally soulless.

Since the NIE report, one hopes, destroyed the neoconservative manifesto as it existed in the US intel community, perhaps the statue should be done in the style of neo-classical. Neo-classical triumphs over neo-conservative. In my opinion, the greatest neo-classical sculptor in American history was Moses Jacob Ezekiel. His work is an American treasure. One of his greatest is a tribute to “religious liberty”.

Doubtless, Moses Jacob Ezekiel would have created a work of art that would have vanquished Dichter. As his name certainly implies, Moses Jacob Ezekiel has soul and he would have created a stunning piece of work as a tribute to the men and women of the US intel community of 07 -- a neo-classical work that, as a historical metaphor, perhaps should be called “Sons of Liberty -- By which we mean Nous”.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moses_Jacob_Ezekiel

[JohnH]

This post is the perfect sequel to Habakkuk's. While the neocons may have learned theory from Leo Strauss et al., I believe that they perfected their art from the Israeli PR machine, which has been turning BS into fertilizer for 60 years. It started when ethnic cleansing was depicted as frightened Arabs fleeing. However, we know that even the revered Yitzak Rabin participated in ethnic cleansing (it was in his book).

Israeli public relations experts are real pros and have successfully convinced the world of their supposedly progressive, enlightened democracy while demonizing whomever they choose. Now they have set themselves the task of convincing the world (along with their neocon co-conspirators) that Iran must be attacked. Given their track record, it's not a threat to be taken lightly.

[Charles I]

Today over in the Mudline on the Doonesbury page at Slate.com John Bolton opines on the NIE analysts:

"Got Iraq wrong and now they're overcompensating by underestimating the potential threat from Iran"

http://www.doonesbury.com/strip/dailydose/index.html

I believe his picture is found under the entry for Chutzpah in the English/Flathead dictionary.

[Grumpy]

Col., since the "N.I.E." being made public, there seems to be a lot going on all of the time. It seems like you're the cook and you put out the crock pot with a few ingredients for the soup with some heat. Then everybody else adds their bit to the soup. We have many opposing view points, but still have a basic respect for the people. Col. and to all of the commentors, GREAT JOB!

At the top, under the fold (line), You have a line that starts with "Yup. Tail wags dog. Mouse gives diving eagle the finger." The last sentence, are you referring to a cartoon titled, "The Last Great Act of Defiance?" I first saw it as a line drawing.

Grumpy

[Matthew]

Col: If Bush doesn't isssue an order to de-conflict our forces in Iraq and the Gulf, what can Israel do? Could Israel even attack Iran without American complicity?

[Andy]

Grumpy,

I just want to point out that the NIE has not "been made public." Rather, an unclassified version of the NIE's key judgments was released. A small point, but an important one I think.

[pbrownlee]

Didn't the late, great Leo Rosten define "chutzpah" as the quality displayed by a man who shouts "Help! Help!" while he's beating you up?

[Will]

the part about "Americans" waking up is bullcrap. Jewish-Americans form the elite of American thought and power from print media, electronic media, the senate, you name it. And many more have Jewish roots such as Murdoch, Wesley Clark, John Kerry or spouses and children such as Howard Dean. The analytic basis for it is the IQ spread magnified by the Guassian curve at the elite range where it matters.

There has to be a fxcking end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict imposed by the U.S., Russia, the EU, China, & the surrounding countries (including Iran & Syria) that is balanced enough to stick.

Otherwise it's going to be one war after another one. The elites will make sure of it.

Otherwise, it's going to tear this country apart one day.

[Will]

on a different laptop & don't have my html template. goto google & enter
"rootless cosmopolitan uri"

it will take you to Tony Karon's blog. He has a hilarious republishing of Uri Avnery's take on the NIE

"How They Stole The Bomb From Us

By Uri Avnery

It was like an atom bomb falling on Israel.

The earth shook. Our political and military leaders were all in shock. The headlines screamed with rage.

What happened?

A real catastrophe: the American intelligence community, comprising 16 different agencies, reached a unanimous verdict: already in 2003, the Iranians terminated their efforts to produce a nuclear bomb, and they have not resumed them since. Even if they change their mind in the future, they will need at least five years to achieve their aim. 

Shouldn’t we be overjoyed? Shouldn’t the masses in Israel be dancing in the streets, as they did on November 29, 1947, sixty years ago? After all, we have been saved! "

[Grumpy]

Andy, you are quite right. This is an unclassified version of the N.I.E. I stand corrected, God forbid that the American citizenry should know the facts. The Administration and the Intel community have a responsibility. If these two say or agree about something, in the ACTUAL NIE, CLASSIFIED, there are questions which must be answered. YOU SAY, YOU BELIEVE CERTAIN THINGS, WHY, WHAT MATERIAL EVIDENCE DO YOU HAVE THAT SUPPORTS YOUR BELIEF? This last situation by the intel community rattled some cages. One more thing, POLICY MAKERS AND YOUR STAFF STAY THE [REDACTED] OUT OF IT! I'M SURE SOME OF THE OLD TIMERS OUT THERE CAN FILL IN THE REDACTED PORTION APPROPRIATELY!

Grumpy

[arthurdecco]

"Otherwise, it's going to tear this country apart one day." posted by Will

Will, you may not have noticed because of the war-worshiping media blanket that has insidiously crept over America since Raygun, but the country is already tearing itself apart - between the reasonable and moral on one side and the self-absorbed and resentful on the other, with both being manipulated by those who malevolently control the levers of modern power through communication and finance.

I don't know how many of the readers here are familiar with Kevin MacDonald's work, (he's a cultural anthropologist – a Professor of Psychology at California State University, Long Beach, who has written a trilogy on Jewish influence in the USA – describing both their benign AND their ominous black-as-nite influence over America). You might want to read his books, starting with #3, “The Culture of Critique”. It answers a lot of the questions I see being asked here.

Tellingly, in spite of years of concentrated efforts to have him removed from the faculty of his university by the usual suspects, he's still there - his scientific methodology and opinions irrefutable. His enemies don’t have a leg to stand on when they label him an anti-Semite or he’d be long gone, wouldn’t he? (Think poor Norman Finklestein.)

Link: http://www.kevinmacdonald.net/books.htm

Lower down on the linked page is a connection to a fascinating and disturbing, (in the light of today’s goings-on), essay:

"Stalin's Willing Executioners: Jews as a Hostile Elite in the USSR".

http://www.kevinmacdonald.net/SlezkineRev.pdf

[arthurdecco]

"Otherwise, it's going to tear this country apart one day." posted by Will

Will, you may not have noticed because of the war-worshiping media blanket that has insidiously crept over America since Raygun, but the country is already tearing itself apart - between the reasonable and moral on one side and the self-absorbed and resentful on the other, with both being manipulated by those who malevolently control the levers of modern power through communication and finance.

I don't know how many of the readers here are familiar with Kevin MacDonald's work, (he's a cultural anthropologist – a Professor of Psychology at California State University, Long Beach, who has written a trilogy on Jewish influence in the USA – describing both their benign AND their ominous black-as-nite influence over America). You might want to read his books, starting with #3, “The Culture of Critique”. It answers a lot of the questions I see being asked here.

Tellingly, in spite of years of concentrated efforts to have him removed from the faculty of his university by the usual suspects, he's still there - his scientific methodology and opinions irrefutable. His enemies don’t have a leg to stand on when they label him an anti-Semite or he’d be long gone, wouldn’t he? (Think poor Norman Finklestein.)

Link: http://www.kevinmacdonald.net/books.htm

Lower down on the linked page is a connection to a fascinating and disturbing, (in the light of today’s goings-on), essay:

"Stalin's Willing Executioners: Jews as a Hostile Elite in the USSR".

http://www.kevinmacdonald.net/SlezkineRev.pdf