Rumors on the Potomac

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/19/AR2006101901907.html?referrer=email

http://insider.washingtontimes.com/articles/normal.php?StoryID=20061019-115632-5191r

Guess what, folks, these stories are mutually exclusive if they are to be taken as indications of a likely change of course for the USA in Iraq.

There is a great deal of wishful thinking going on along the Potomac these days.  The Post article speaks of discontent and brooding among  members of Congress, "foreign policy experts" and the like over the goings on at the Baker/Hamilton run Iraq Study Group.  There is talk of a coming visit by a "senior" group of Republican law-makers to Bush (GStK) to tell him that he must "change course" in Iraq ("cut and run") or? (something).  There is also the rumor that the friends of "the father" (small "f") have marshaled their forces and "girded their loins" for a similar effort.

Unfortunately, all of this inspired rumor-mongering seems to be based on whispering occurring outside the hearing of the president (GStK).  Bush, himself, and his spokesman, Tony Snowjob, went out of their way yesterday to make it clear that this is all "hooey."  Read the WT article!!  It could not be more clear.  Do not mistake Bush (GStK) for a businessman who maintains a brave front until his latest venture reaches the stage of collapse.  He never was much of a businessman and lacks the instinct for "cutting and running" as he would think of it.  If he had been Henry Ford he would still be making "Model As."  To hell with the market!  He does not have a clue when it comes to such concepts as "sunk cost."

People are asking me uninformed and fantasy laden questions. 

1-  Will the military be willing to continue along the present path?  Hell yes, they will.  What do you think this is, Paraguay getting ready for a coup against "El Jefe?"  As long as they receive legal orders, the military will obey.  That is the essence of being a soldier and they all understand that.  In addition, they do not want to run this country and they know that ultimately this would be their fate if they stopped fulfilling their constitutional function.  General Caldwell's unhappiness in Baghdad?  Understandable, but not something that will be tolerated for long.

2- Congress?  They authorized the war.  Will they vote to un-authorize it?  I think not.  Their only real lever against a really intransigent president in a war situation is to cut off the money.  Do you really think they are going to do that?  I think not.

3- The Bush 41 people?  What are they going to tell him, that he is naughty?  They should start thinking (with the Congress) of what kind of statement they are going to make to the press in the West Wing driveway after he shows them the door.

The president can not be re-elected.  Whatever is going to happen in the mid-term is going to happen.  It appears to me that they have precious little leverage to use against him. (GStK)

I will begin to take seriously the current rumors of great things a coming when Bush or Tony start to "crack" in public.  I have not seen it yet.

Pat Lang

Comments

[billmon]

In general, the winds travel from West to East. Arbogast: "The radiation from a nuclear war in the Middle East will probably stay in the Northern Hemisphere to a very great extent. Or at least that's what the Bush's hope."

It didn't help them much in "On the Beach"

[Marty]

I followed the Great Billmon over here from his blog. I was already aware of Pat Lang (from The News Hour), but if this site is good enough for Billmon to post comments, I'm reading this site every day from now on!

[Byron Raum]

Unfortunately, there's a problem with the "winds blow West to East" theory, on account of the rather simple fact that the earth is round. Nuclear fallout will not respect the international date line and stop moving when encountering it. Here's a fairly easily understood discussion about global wind patterns: http://kids.earth.nasa.gov/archive/nino/global.html ; essentially, it'd appear that any poison will end up at the equator and carried to the other hemisphere?