A New Decision?

Richard Sale sent me the following analysis of the "state of play" concerning Iraq/Iran in the White House. If this is correct, then the Iraq Study Group might serve a purpose. After all, if the "Decider" decides to decide something different.... GStK!

Pat Lang

PS - This is Bush as Ahab.

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“Administration officials told me on Monday that President George Bush is likely to announce "an exit strategy" that would draw down current U.S. force levels in Iraq.
"I think the dimensions of the catastrophe there has finally sunk in," one administration source said.
He and two others I talked to refused to speculate on details of any withdrawal, but all said that Bush would begin public statements after the upcoming elections were completed.
But they did say that Bush is also becoming "increasingly pessimistic" about any military action against Iran. According to one, "Bush really wanted to mount an attack on Iran earlier this year -- he was really hot to trot," but military briefings brought home to him that attacking Iran did not mean eliminating its suspected nuclear sites but also having to destroy "Iran's entire retaliatory capability," in the words of one. This capability is formidable; U.S. intelligence sources say Iran has underground missile batteries southwest of Abu Musa with the HY-2 advanced version of the Silkworm anti-ship missile. There are also Scud-Cs which could hit any UAE ports, including those to the south and west of Abu Dhabi and they could also strike Dubai where U.S. naval sources currently dock at the port of Jebel Ali.
Since the Scuds are long-range missiles, they don't need to be moved to the Gulf islands in order to hit targets on the Saudi side of the Gulf.
The underground storage bunkers also store the newer Chinese-made C-801 and C-802 anti-ship missiles and it could easily transport them to Abu Musa if they are not already there as a few U.S. experts contend. The majority I spoke to felt they were there already.
They could also be transported to places like the Tunbs, Sirri and other islands in the blink of an eye where they would be sheltered in bunkers.
There is also the threat of Iran's Navy. It has much amphibious capability -- both flat bottomed ships and hovercraft -- and a brigade of marines, all of which it showed off in exercises in the spring of this year, meaning it could cross the Gulf at any point it chose to, say experts.
Iran has submarines that could be easily sunk, the Gulf being so shallow, and so Tehran would likely resort to its array of E-boats, mini-subs, combat swimmers, and fast missile patrol craft to wreak damage. Iran is also training fundamentalists from Egypt, the Gulf States, Tunisia, Algeria and Lebanon at Iranian facilities, and would be likely to have a Fifth column in place in the Gulf States long before any conflict began.
Iran's ability to do this quickly and effectively is pretty much taken for granted, U.S. officials said.
One military analyst pointed out that in 1986-1988 when Iran's oil infrastructure was being savaged by Iraq, Iran responded by using fast interdiction boats like Boston Whalers, Boghammers as well as helicopters to launch attacks against Saudi and Kuwait shipping. Tehran could be expected to resort to this tactic again, experts say.
If the United States began the bombing of Iran's conventional military forces, Iran might attempt to close the Straits of Hormuz before losing its chief military assets.
In Qatar, there is currently underway a $50 billion natural gas project funded mutually by Exxon-Mobil and the Qatar government. The United States is fast running out of natural gas, and the Qatar program would ship in new reserves to take up the shortage. But even though Qatar has assured Tehran that it does not back any action against Iran by the United States, Tehran has made it clear that Qatar would be heavily damaged in punitive attacks if the Bush administration starts a war.
As one civilian military expert said, "Iran would be likely to do a great deal of damage in the Gulf before its assets on the mainland and islands were neutralized."
In other words, if attacked, Iran would respond asymmetrically, and any U.S. Iran war would be more frightful, full of bloody slaughter and unintended consequences than current U.S. planners think. This is what is giving Bush pause.
Cheney is still pushing hard for a strike, but Bush has become more skeptical of the vice president's ardor as he looks over the wreckage of Iraq, U.S. officials said.

Richard Sale”

Comments

[dan]

Fascinating. And that's only one element in the Iranian retaliatory package.

Would be interested in what the assessments of Iranian options regarding Iraq and Kuwait were.

[Nicholas Weaver]

IMO: If those with brains actually got through to Bush on Iran, this is a big BIG deal, and probably the first time that the bubble around him has ever been succesfully penetrated.

Anyone with an ounce of clue and a good nature for Red Teaming could see all the nasty options Iran could respond to a US attack with.

And what I think may have gotten through to Bush is the following sentence: "Four to Five Dollar a Gallon Gasoline".

As that is what an attack on Iran could easily cause, as Iran can (and probably would) effectively stop most or all oil export from the Persian Gulf area.

[Will]

the tradesports.com contracts for the Iran war actually come down after the New Year.

So it appears for traders now is the optimum time for Dumbya to strike. I"m glad he"s coolin his heels but not surprised Dead Eye dick is all gung ho. After all with five deferments the chickenhawk never has internalized the consequences of war.

Then there's the Israelis with their Jericho missles and nukes?

Best Wishes

[Abu Sinan]

Good comments. I was struck by this:

"attacking Iran did not mean eliminating its suspected nuclear sites but also having to destroy "Iran's entire retaliatory capability," in the words of one."

I think maybe the Israeli attack against Lebanon/Hizb'Allah might have been an important part of this plan. Iranain retaliatory capability would still be there if conventional military assets were destroyed.

The attack against Hizb'Allah might have been, in part, an attempt to neutralise one facite of this assymetrical threat early. It failure I reckon plays a role in this comments.

But the Iranian threat is much greater than that. I think were the US to attack Iran we could expect attacks here in the USA, and abroad on USand Israeli assets as well as any supporting parties.

I view Iranian agents and Hizb'Allah as being potentially more dangerous than al-Queda. Such an attack on Iran would see if I am right.

[Keone Michaels]

You put the money paragraph at the start not the finish.

“Administration officials told me on Monday that President George Bush is likely to announce "an exit strategy" that would draw down current U.S. force levels in Iraq.
"I think the dimensions of the catastrophe there has finally sunk in," one administration source said.

I smell lots of deal making in the future..

[Got A Watch]

I would be surprised if Bush is really listening - when has he listened to reason in the past? IMHO this administration is pretty much immunised to reality - is this enough to puncture the bubble? I fear not.

One factor I don't see discussed much in public is the Lloyds Insurance on tankers in the Persian Gulf. In the event of any hostilities, the insurance would be pulled or raised to exorbitant levels. Tanker owners would not send ships to the region, effectively shutting the Straits regardless of Iranian action. The US government would have to escort US/UK owned tankers in convoy and guarantee their insurance - ships owned by other countries would probably just sail away from the region. So the price of oil could be expected to hit $150-$200 even if Iran can't really block the Straits fully.
This would immediately plunge the world economy into deep recession, severely hurting financial markets.

[Alex]

Good point, Dan. Now when are you going to get a blog, already?

I hadn't thought of them trying to *cross* the Gulf. Ambitious but probably stupid, but very troublesome.

[Will]

live.com search reveals Richard Sale is a highly regarded intelligence reporter for UPI. He is quoted in the article linked below on HA's electronic abilities in the July War.

The Israeli press often blames the commander of the ship for not having his anti-missle protection devices on, but the article below posits that EW measures evaded those protective devices!

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HI09Ak01.html

"How hi-tech Hezbollah called the shots"

Best Wishes

[John Howley]

This is grounds for optimism assuming that all of the relevant military assets on both sides are under tight central control. There's a lot of ordnance in and around the Gulf and more on its way.

[arbogast]

Bush is an opportunist. In and out. He likes to make the people who know he's a moron frustrated by his antics, but when things start to heat up in the kitchen, he is outta there.

Cheney, on the other hand, has pump brain. His personality, which was never much to write home about, was changed by by-pass (a well-known phenomenon). He is a 100% psycho.

Bush, of course, is also a burnt-out alcoholic with all the paranoia and sicko traits such a person can have. But he isn't a pump head. And he sure as hell doesn't want "real" trouble.

[Will]

Gertz in Inside the Ring column in the Wash Times reports
http://www.washtimes.com/world/20061014-121835-6681r_page2.htm
that radiation was sampled confirming a N Korean nuke test.

It is thought to be a partial PLUTONIUM bomb detonation.

Two kinds of conventional nukes. Enriched Uranium and Plutonium. the Hiroshima bomb was the enriched type. Foolproof don't need to be tested, never was, except over Hiroshima. Just bring the two subcritical masses together to achieve critical mass.

But the Nagaskai bomb had to be tested b/c the Plutonium bomb is very, very, intricate. Contrary to conventioanl wisdom, the details are still calssified. It requires explosive lenses, trace elements, intricate timing.

Enriched U requires centrifuges, or other intricate methods of separation, purification from natural uranium but the bomb is easy to make though heavy.

The Plutonium bomb is difficult to make but once mastered can be more easily fitted onto warheads because it's lighter. Plutonium can be made from breeder reactors w/o those pesky centrifuges.

Everybody laughed at the NK test, so they're going to try it again.

Best Wishes.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I hope you guys are right for the sake of the United States and Iran.

[Green Zone Cafe]

One minor point: who says Iran's subs would have to stay in the shallow Gulf? They have ports outside the Gulf. Their only limitation is that they are diesels and have to be refueled and get air.

Plus, it's a long time since I did antisubmarine warfare stuff, but I remember something about salinity and temperature gradients in the Gulf making ASW there a bit problematic.

[MarcLord]

arbogast,

right-o on your Cheney/Bush analysis. Cheney plays for keeps, and he is after Iran.

I will repeat myself: achieving a war with Iran is as simple as having them "sink" one or more of our ships. Preferably including a sub for some variety, and better secrecy. Cheney is in charge of the security apparatus, not Bush, and has been since May of 2001 by Executive Order.

I believe the choices of the Bush family's extended circle are rapidly narrowing, down to either accepting an unwinnable war with Iran or with ridding our government of some undesireable elements, by means both prudent and necessary.

Say what you want about the First Family, but they know how to make a hell of an omelette and they've been doing it for a long time. Cheney is a usurper who has taken control of their son.

[Will]

you guys got me stomped again!

google, live.com, and more importantly my wife who works for Department of Social Services was no help.

What is a "pump brain," as used in "Vice is a pump brain."

Best Wishes

[Will]

it's all in how you search
i just didn't include cheney in the search term
paydirt
http://uplink.space.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=humanbio&Number=235250&page=16&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=0&fpart=

"
One worry can be if you had an open-heart operation.

Depending on the surgical techniques used, and time that the patient was on a heart-lung pump, about 33-88% of survivors of open-heart operations suffer significant cognitive impairment (IQ, short term recall, and long term memeory recall). The amount of IQ loss is deemed significant if it is more than 20%. There are many journal papers on this subject, unfortunately not many links on the net.

This effect is commonly called "pump-head syndrome".

Here are some: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=136922 and http://www.memory-key.com/Seniors/senior_research_clinical.htm
http://heartdisease.about.com/cs/bypasssurgery/a/pumphead.htm
Same is true for young babies who need heart operations: http://perfline.com/main/journal.cgi?folder=revonline&next=20

(I can not help to note that Dick Cheney has had multiple bypass operations, including one after he was elected. He should have self-tested before/after, and voluntarily resigned from office if he suffered from pump-head syndrome.)

"

Never let it be said that Will gives up easily
Best Wishes

[W. Patrick Lang]

All

Hedley Lamarr is banned for giving me a faux e-mail address. pl

[Will]

Of course I promptly made an edit to Vice's Wikipedia article and it got promptly deleted.

I placed the following on his discussion page to see if I could get some supporters before getting in a wheel war.

" == Pumphead Syndrome ==

The medical literature shows that a large percentage of people that have bypasses suffer significant cognitive impairment. Vice with the help of his helper Scooter maneuvered us into the Iraq War and is all Gung Ho about getting us into an Iran War. It is very fit and proper to make this edit in the medical section.

*'''An open question is whether Cheney has suffered any cognitive impairment from his bypasses due to [[pump-head syndrome]], a condition where a significant percentage of bypass patients suffer cognitive impairment.[http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/344/6/395?ck=nck]'''

Let me know what you all think. After 2,700 dead over 20,000 wounded, a trillion dollars blown and no exit in Iraq, it may be derelict to the readers not to let them know there are some medical issues out there. Best Wishes. Will314159 00:05, 19 October 2006 (UTC) "

[BadTux]

Interesting. So the puppet (Bush) is no longer doing the puppetmaster's (Cheney's) bidding? Given that Cheney appears delusional lately regarding the situation in Iraq (or is the world's biggest liar -- or maybe both, they're not mutually exclusive, y'know?), that's probably the best news for the country that I've heard in six years... which is a sad note on where we've gone these past six years, I suppose.

[John]

Here's to Richard Sale's info being accurate that the administration's appetite is lost over Iraq and Iran. One concern with the Baker commission is that it appears that not one of the ten have meaningful military experience from which to draw, formulate policy, strategy, or even make a cursory cross-walk of strategic to operational to tactical ways, means and ends.

[Will]

the proper scientific term for pumphead syndrome folks is postperfusion syndrome

there is a nice National Enquirer article about it and William Jefferson Clinton
http://www.nationalenquirer.com/politics/62632

but the scary focus should be on deadeye dick
I am now scared shxtless

I should have skipped readind Sic Tyrannis today!!!!!

Best Wishes

[Bill D]

The pentagon is aware how quickly any attack on Iran could go south. It could happen in a matter of days rather than the years that it has taken for failure to become apparent in Iraq. "Oh my goodness, who could have imagined" will not cut it this time when the gas price signs start to soar into uncharted territory.

There is no way of knowing where Rumsfeld is on this. He doesn't appear to be as big of a fool as Cheney. There can't be many general officers willing to be Rummy's fall guy, at this point.

I doubt if Bush's Iran briefings will end with the same "and then we all ride home on our shiny new ponies" that he got before Iraq. There will be a lot more, "we would not lose southern Iraq, we just will not be able to move supply trucks thru there any more", or "we plan to reopen the strait by day 27, unless we run out of marines, or amtracks, or heavy helicopters, or minesweepers first", or "maybe the Iranians will not want to destroy all of the oil facilities on the Arabian side of rhe Gulf".

We will soon see if Bush is a committed megalomaniac or just a dabbler.

[wcw]

Duke had a pretty definitive paper on "pump head" a few years back. It's all over Pubmed by now; just do a search for "bypass cognition". A recent article is titled, "Can cognition survive heart surgery?"

Cheney had his quadruple bypass in 1988.

[taters]

Thank you for posting this Colonel. And first rate as usual from Mr. Sale.
Will, re "Never let it be said..." - those words would never come from my lips.

[arbogast]

It is incorrect to focus on "cognitive impairment" alone after cardio-pulmonary bypass. Far more significant are the very well-documented personality changes.

Usually, patients become disinhibited. The people around them notice this, "Gee, grandpa never used to get angry that easily," or "Gosh, gramma seems to be taking a new interest in men these days," that sort of thing.

Whatever remaining belligerence and hatred Cheney had locked up in him, got unlocked by bypass. That's the hypothesis