« God Save the King | Main | Rumors on the Potomac »

18 October 2006

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

dan

Fascinating. And that's only one element in the Iranian retaliatory package.

Would be interested in what the assessments of Iranian options regarding Iraq and Kuwait were.

Nicholas Weaver

IMO: If those with brains actually got through to Bush on Iran, this is a big BIG deal, and probably the first time that the bubble around him has ever been succesfully penetrated.

Anyone with an ounce of clue and a good nature for Red Teaming could see all the nasty options Iran could respond to a US attack with.

And what I think may have gotten through to Bush is the following sentence: "Four to Five Dollar a Gallon Gasoline".

As that is what an attack on Iran could easily cause, as Iran can (and probably would) effectively stop most or all oil export from the Persian Gulf area.

Will

the tradesports.com contracts for the Iran war actually come down after the New Year.

So it appears for traders now is the optimum time for Dumbya to strike. I"m glad he"s coolin his heels but not surprised Dead Eye dick is all gung ho. After all with five deferments the chickenhawk never has internalized the consequences of war.

Then there's the Israelis with their Jericho missles and nukes?

Best Wishes

Abu Sinan

Good comments. I was struck by this:

"attacking Iran did not mean eliminating its suspected nuclear sites but also having to destroy "Iran's entire retaliatory capability," in the words of one."

I think maybe the Israeli attack against Lebanon/Hizb'Allah might have been an important part of this plan. Iranain retaliatory capability would still be there if conventional military assets were destroyed.

The attack against Hizb'Allah might have been, in part, an attempt to neutralise one facite of this assymetrical threat early. It failure I reckon plays a role in this comments.

But the Iranian threat is much greater than that. I think were the US to attack Iran we could expect attacks here in the USA, and abroad on USand Israeli assets as well as any supporting parties.

I view Iranian agents and Hizb'Allah as being potentially more dangerous than al-Queda. Such an attack on Iran would see if I am right.

Keone  Michaels

You put the money paragraph at the start not the finish.

“Administration officials told me on Monday that President George Bush is likely to announce "an exit strategy" that would draw down current U.S. force levels in Iraq.
"I think the dimensions of the catastrophe there has finally sunk in," one administration source said.

I smell lots of deal making in the future..

Got A Watch

I would be surprised if Bush is really listening - when has he listened to reason in the past? IMHO this administration is pretty much immunised to reality - is this enough to puncture the bubble? I fear not.

One factor I don't see discussed much in public is the Lloyds Insurance on tankers in the Persian Gulf. In the event of any hostilities, the insurance would be pulled or raised to exorbitant levels. Tanker owners would not send ships to the region, effectively shutting the Straits regardless of Iranian action. The US government would have to escort US/UK owned tankers in convoy and guarantee their insurance - ships owned by other countries would probably just sail away from the region. So the price of oil could be expected to hit $150-$200 even if Iran can't really block the Straits fully.
This would immediately plunge the world economy into deep recession, severely hurting financial markets.

Alex

Good point, Dan. Now when are you going to get a blog, already?

I hadn't thought of them trying to *cross* the Gulf. Ambitious but probably stupid, but very troublesome.

Will

live.com search reveals Richard Sale is a highly regarded intelligence reporter for UPI. He is quoted in the article linked below on HA's electronic abilities in the July War.

The Israeli press often blames the commander of the ship for not having his anti-missle protection devices on, but the article below posits that EW measures evaded those protective devices!

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HI09Ak01.html

"How hi-tech Hezbollah called the shots"

Best Wishes

John Howley

This is grounds for optimism assuming that all of the relevant military assets on both sides are under tight central control. There's a lot of ordnance in and around the Gulf and more on its way.

arbogast

Bush is an opportunist. In and out. He likes to make the people who know he's a moron frustrated by his antics, but when things start to heat up in the kitchen, he is outta there.

Cheney, on the other hand, has pump brain. His personality, which was never much to write home about, was changed by by-pass (a well-known phenomenon). He is a 100% psycho.

Bush, of course, is also a burnt-out alcoholic with all the paranoia and sicko traits such a person can have. But he isn't a pump head. And he sure as hell doesn't want "real" trouble.

Will

Gertz in Inside the Ring column in the Wash Times reports
http://www.washtimes.com/world/20061014-121835-6681r_page2.htm
that radiation was sampled confirming a N Korean nuke test.

It is thought to be a partial PLUTONIUM bomb detonation.

Two kinds of conventional nukes. Enriched Uranium and Plutonium. the Hiroshima bomb was the enriched type. Foolproof don't need to be tested, never was, except over Hiroshima. Just bring the two subcritical masses together to achieve critical mass.

But the Nagaskai bomb had to be tested b/c the Plutonium bomb is very, very, intricate. Contrary to conventioanl wisdom, the details are still calssified. It requires explosive lenses, trace elements, intricate timing.

Enriched U requires centrifuges, or other intricate methods of separation, purification from natural uranium but the bomb is easy to make though heavy.

The Plutonium bomb is difficult to make but once mastered can be more easily fitted onto warheads because it's lighter. Plutonium can be made from breeder reactors w/o those pesky centrifuges.

Everybody laughed at the NK test, so they're going to try it again.

Best Wishes.

Babak Makkinejad

I hope you guys are right for the sake of the United States and Iran.

Green Zone Cafe

One minor point: who says Iran's subs would have to stay in the shallow Gulf? They have ports outside the Gulf. Their only limitation is that they are diesels and have to be refueled and get air.

Plus, it's a long time since I did antisubmarine warfare stuff, but I remember something about salinity and temperature gradients in the Gulf making ASW there a bit problematic.

MarcLord

arbogast,

right-o on your Cheney/Bush analysis. Cheney plays for keeps, and he is after Iran.

I will repeat myself: achieving a war with Iran is as simple as having them "sink" one or more of our ships. Preferably including a sub for some variety, and better secrecy. Cheney is in charge of the security apparatus, not Bush, and has been since May of 2001 by Executive Order.

I believe the choices of the Bush family's extended circle are rapidly narrowing, down to either accepting an unwinnable war with Iran or with ridding our government of some undesireable elements, by means both prudent and necessary.

Say what you want about the First Family, but they know how to make a hell of an omelette and they've been doing it for a long time. Cheney is a usurper who has taken control of their son.

rick

this is a very optimistic article.

I made a bet that Hastert would be gone 2 weeks ago, so my predictions are fallible, but i think that this is a VERY optimistic article. Interesting that it's a month before the election that this story is getting out, hmmmm?
I always tell my wife that she is the great moderator on my basically anti-social nature, and the world is fortunate that I have her, because without her, my hostility would be completely without restraint; this is how i see the election's effect on Our Beloved Leader. Come 11-8-06, that boy has nothing stopping him from doing anything he wants.

I would not be selling any insurance in Iran for a while, but again, i could be wrong, and hope that this very optimistic article is proven to be correct in the fullness of time.

Will

you guys got me stomped again!

google, live.com, and more importantly my wife who works for Department of Social Services was no help.

What is a "pump brain," as used in "Vice is a pump brain."

Best Wishes

Will

it's all in how you search
i just didn't include cheney in the search term
paydirt
http://uplink.space.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=humanbio&Number=235250&page=16&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=0&fpart=

"
One worry can be if you had an open-heart operation.

Depending on the surgical techniques used, and time that the patient was on a heart-lung pump, about 33-88% of survivors of open-heart operations suffer significant cognitive impairment (IQ, short term recall, and long term memeory recall). The amount of IQ loss is deemed significant if it is more than 20%. There are many journal papers on this subject, unfortunately not many links on the net.

This effect is commonly called "pump-head syndrome".

Here are some: http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=136922 and http://www.memory-key.com/Seniors/senior_research_clinical.htm
http://heartdisease.about.com/cs/bypasssurgery/a/pumphead.htm
Same is true for young babies who need heart operations: http://perfline.com/main/journal.cgi?folder=revonline&next=20

(I can not help to note that Dick Cheney has had multiple bypass operations, including one after he was elected. He should have self-tested before/after, and voluntarily resigned from office if he suffered from pump-head syndrome.)


"

Never let it be said that Will gives up easily
Best Wishes

W. Patrick Lang

All

Hedley Lamarr is banned for giving me a faux e-mail address. pl

Will

Of course I promptly made an edit to Vice's Wikipedia article and it got promptly deleted.

I placed the following on his discussion page to see if I could get some supporters before getting in a wheel war.

" == Pumphead Syndrome ==

The medical literature shows that a large percentage of people that have bypasses suffer significant cognitive impairment. Vice with the help of his helper Scooter maneuvered us into the Iraq War and is all Gung Ho about getting us into an Iran War. It is very fit and proper to make this edit in the medical section.

*'''An open question is whether Cheney has suffered any cognitive impairment from his bypasses due to [[pump-head syndrome]], a condition where a significant percentage of bypass patients suffer cognitive impairment.[http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/abstract/344/6/395?ck=nck]'''

Let me know what you all think. After 2,700 dead over 20,000 wounded, a trillion dollars blown and no exit in Iraq, it may be derelict to the readers not to let them know there are some medical issues out there. Best Wishes. Will314159 00:05, 19 October 2006 (UTC) "

BadTux

Interesting. So the puppet (Bush) is no longer doing the puppetmaster's (Cheney's) bidding? Given that Cheney appears delusional lately regarding the situation in Iraq (or is the world's biggest liar -- or maybe both, they're not mutually exclusive, y'know?), that's probably the best news for the country that I've heard in six years... which is a sad note on where we've gone these past six years, I suppose.

John

Here's to Richard Sale's info being accurate that the administration's appetite is lost over Iraq and Iran. One concern with the Baker commission is that it appears that not one of the ten have meaningful military experience from which to draw, formulate policy, strategy, or even make a cursory cross-walk of strategic to operational to tactical ways, means and ends.

Will

the proper scientific term for pumphead syndrome folks is postperfusion syndrome

there is a nice National Enquirer article about it and William Jefferson Clinton
http://www.nationalenquirer.com/politics/62632

but the scary focus should be on deadeye dick
I am now scared shxtless

I should have skipped readind Sic Tyrannis today!!!!!

Best Wishes

Bill D

The pentagon is aware how quickly any attack on Iran could go south. It could happen in a matter of days rather than the years that it has taken for failure to become apparent in Iraq. "Oh my goodness, who could have imagined" will not cut it this time when the gas price signs start to soar into uncharted territory.

There is no way of knowing where Rumsfeld is on this. He doesn't appear to be as big of a fool as Cheney. There can't be many general officers willing to be Rummy's fall guy, at this point.

I doubt if Bush's Iran briefings will end with the same "and then we all ride home on our shiny new ponies" that he got before Iraq. There will be a lot more, "we would not lose southern Iraq, we just will not be able to move supply trucks thru there any more", or "we plan to reopen the strait by day 27, unless we run out of marines, or amtracks, or heavy helicopters, or minesweepers first", or "maybe the Iranians will not want to destroy all of the oil facilities on the Arabian side of rhe Gulf".

We will soon see if Bush is a committed megalomaniac or just a dabbler.

wcw

Duke had a pretty definitive paper on "pump head" a few years back. It's all over Pubmed by now; just do a search for "bypass cognition". A recent article is titled, "Can cognition survive heart surgery?"

Cheney had his quadruple bypass in 1988.

taters

Thank you for posting this Colonel. And first rate as usual from Mr. Sale.
Will, re "Never let it be said..." - those words would never come from my lips.

The comments to this entry are closed.

My Photo

July 2020

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  
Blog powered by Typepad