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24 August 2006

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Grimgrin

Got A Watch, just a minor correction, the Dolphin class are not ballistic missile submarines. If used as a nuclear delivery system, they'd be launching cruise missiles through their torpedo tubes, rather than vertical launch ballsitic missiles like the Typhoon or Ohio class subs.

searp

I discussed Iraq with a spectrum of Iraqi exiles last week. They represented a pretty broad confessional mix, including Christians.

One person said he thought that there were 1-2 million Iranians in Iraq. This wasn't disputed by the others.

I do not know what our intel assessment is, but I would think that Iran has excellent intel about our forces in Iraq and some pretty serious capability in place to deniably disrupt logistics.

So: an attack on Iran would require some re-posturing in Iraq. Watch for redeployment of our own troops, that would be a sign of serious commitment.

Babak Makkinejad

searp:

"1-2 million Iranians in Iraq"; just another lie.

W. Patrick Lang

Babak

How about "new Iraqis?"

Just kidding.

Any thoughts on the Ramsey farce as evidence of "Dusk in America?" pl

Babak Makkinejad

Farce it was.

As you are probably aware, the Muslim historian referred to pre-Islamic period (specially in Arabia) as the Darkness (Jahiliyya). (Before them, Rabbis rejected Rome as essentially anti-God.)

When a Muslim is confronted by the contemporary American scene, one of the things that will no doubt strike him is this drift towards Darkness.

A case in point is that in the United States there is serious debate re-defining marriage to include homosexuals. At the same time, US has made polygamy illegal. Large numbers of Muslim people (in hundreds of millions) find this incomprehensible.

Other examples are stem-cell research, assisted suicide, and surrogate motherhood.

Vast areas of Earth are in Darkness (China, Japan, Korea, parts of Africa,). EU seems to be crowing about its direction towrds Darkness.

US, one could argue, is also on that path, but since it started long after EU, it has not gone as far towards Darkness.

zanzibar

Babak

Morality is tricky. What is Darkness to some is Light to others.

Social mores have varied over time and under different contexts. There seems always to be conflicts between acceptable and unacceptable. And consistency does not seem to be a human trait.

I have traveled extensively in India where religious traditions and rituals are very much at the surface and the dissonance between rational and spiritual very apparent. Yet notions of morality never consistent.

Babak Makkinejad

zanzibar:

Understood.

Morality is a method for reaching an aim.

Darkness is the denial of the existence of an aim, or alternatively, the identification of the aim with the collective powers of mankind.

confusedponderer

Got A Watch,
"Dolphin" class submarines bought from West Germany (and one third paid for by taxpayers in Germany - guilt over WWII fuels WWIII). These subs can launch nuclear ICBM's from underwater, and have been armed with Israeli and American misiles, both cruise and ballistic."

You're bringing up a myth I'm happy to rebuke:

#1 - Guilt:
Yes, to an extent. It has also to be understood as a hidden subsidy to the German shipyards involved, in the tradition of US 'Military Aid'. Low risk too, because it is unlikely the Israelis will ever provide something as embarassing as footage of Israel using a Dolphin class sub against stone throwing Palestinians.

#2 - The boats:
The boats have 6x 533mm and 4x 650mm calibre torpedo tubes, that means they can launch cruise missiles and torpedoes. They can launch Harpoon anti-ship cruise missiles. They never received 'the real thing', Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US.

#3 - Size matters:
Then there is the question of size. Both are too large to fit. Israel is frankly incapable of modifying the Dolphins themselves, by adding sections needed to hold ICBM or IRBM launchers. They don't have the know-how. If they did, the changes would be clearly visible, like on a Boa snake that ate a sheep.

An ICBM, like the American Trident has a length of 13m, the older polaris has a length of 10m. Israel's Jericho-1 and 2 missile both have a length of 14m. The hull diameter of the approx 1600ts Dolphin boats is 6.2 m. They are too small for missiles.

#4 - Possible alternatives:
* Germany has built external 'mine belts' for their tiny Type-206 A submarines, which can be fitted when needed, and then allow to carry mines without sacrificing torpedo load. It effectively doubled their warload. It is possible that a missile carrying belt could be developed. Yet nothing like that has ever been spotted or reported to have been developed for or by Israel.

* Also, Israel could perhaps modify something smaller, perhaps a field artillery rocked like their MAR-350, for sub launch, but it would probably be too unprecise, and offer less throw weight to range than a cruise missile. They'd rather invest in a cruise missile.

#5 - Bottom line:
I hold Israel to be perfectly capable of modifying a missile, like their drone Delilah, to have a long range and carry a nuclear warhead, and to be fired from a torpedo tube.

Cruise missiles - yes, ballistic missiles - impossible.

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