Sic Semper Tyrannis

"Feeling morally, intellectually confused?"

The following is posted at Keith's blog.  If you don't want to read it, check out the video posted at Crooks and Liars.

This was a great surprise when I saw it last evening.  It is an argument against my recent conclusion that we have grown a generation of illiterates in this country.

Good work, Keith Olberman.

Pat Lang

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Feeling morally, intellectually confused?

"The man who sees absolutes, where all other men see nuances and shades of meaning, is either a prophet, or a quack.

Donald H. Rumsfeld is not a prophet.

Mr. Rumsfeld’s remarkable speech to the American Legion yesterday demands the deep analysis—and the sober contemplation—of every American.

For it did not merely serve to impugn the morality or intelligence -- indeed, the loyalty -- of the majority of Americans who oppose the transient occupants of the highest offices in the land. Worse, still, it credits those same transient occupants -- our employees -- with a total omniscience; a total omniscience which neither common sense, nor this administration’s track record at home or abroad, suggests they deserve.

Dissent and disagreement with government is the life’s blood of human freedom; and not merely because it is the first roadblock against the kind of tyranny the men Mr. Rumsfeld likes to think of as “his” troops still fight, this very evening, in Iraq.

It is also essential.  Because just every once in awhile it is right and the power to which it speaks, is wrong.

In a small irony, however, Mr. Rumsfeld’s speechwriter was adroit in invoking the memory of the appeasement of the Nazis. For in their time, there was another government faced with true peril—with a growing evil—powerful and remorseless.

That government, like Mr. Rumsfeld’s, had a monopoly on all the facts. It, too, had the “secret information.” It alone had the true picture of the threat. It too dismissed and insulted its critics in terms like Mr. Rumsfeld’s -- questioning their intellect and their morality.

That government was England’s, in the 1930’s.

In a small irony, however, Mr. Rumsfeld’s speechwriter was adroit in invoking the memory of the appeasement of the Nazis. For in their time, there was another government faced with true peril—with a growing evil—powerful and remorseless.

That government, like Mr. Rumsfeld’s, had a monopoly on all the facts. It, too, had the “secret information.” It alone had the true picture of the threat. It too dismissed and insulted its critics in terms like Mr. Rumsfeld’s -- questioning their intellect and their morality.

That government was England’s, in the 1930’s.

Book Review of "Cobra 2" and the IDA Report. Lang

Download lang_bkrv.pdf

The two books reviewed here bring to mind the remark of Crown Prince Rupprecht (Wittelsbach) of Bavaria who said of the British Expeditionary Force of 1914-15 that they were "an army of lions led by asses."

This will be in the Autumn number of "Middle East Policy" in the book review section and can be seen there or on their site in the last week of September.

http://www.mepc.org/journal_vol13/0609.asp

Pat Lang

Gunter Grass and 10th SS Panzer Division Frundsberg

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1103AP_Poland_Guenter_Grass.html

Seattle Post-Intelligencer

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I "wuz" drafted is his story.  He says he first was in a labor unit, then he tried to join the navy (submarines) and then "found himself" in the Waffen SS.  That may well be.  This division was mainly formed from conscripts.   For a long time the Heer (German Army" succesfully resisted allowig the SS to draft Germans, but late in the war that broke down.  Pat Lang

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"During the war the organization was presented as a multinational force protecting Europe from the evils of Communism. In addition, training emphasised unit cohesion and mutual respect between officers and men, rather than strict discipline. In the Waffen-SS, it was not a requirement to salute officers and a more casual salute was adopted (the right arm raised vertically from the elbow - a relaxed version of the Heil salute. This salute is portrayed in many war films). Added to this, the practice of addressing a superior as Herr ("Sir") was also forbidden, with everyone up to Himmler being addressed simply by their rank.   Wiki - Waffen SS

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Actually the Waffen SS was not part of the Wehrmacht at all but rather was a party militia which received greater and greater government support as WW2 turnd into a maelstrom from the German point of view.  The ethos of the Waffen SS was formed in its earliest days when Freikorps front line veterans of WW1 made up the cadre.  Such men have little patience with things like saluting and "sirring" all the time.  The more formalistic trappings of military life are more appealing when "motivating" troops is the first priority.

The Waffen SS more resembled the Pasdaran or the Syrian saraya difaa' (protection companies) than Napoleon's Guard or Saddam's Republican Guard which were army formations rather than formalised militias.  Pat Lang

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Division_Frundsberg

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This was Grass's outfit, one of the higher quality "late" Waffen SS divisions.  Along with its "twin"  SS Panzer Division "Hohenstaufen" it held the bridge at Arnhem in "Operation Market Garden."  You remember. Maximilian Schell played the corps commander (2nd SS Panzer Corps?).  He looked like maybe he had transferred from the Heer (army) in search of promotion.  Some did.

Some of you folks will sort me out on this but I have doubts about Grass's "legend."  Kurt Waldheim has been hounded unmercifully for having been a staff lieutenant in an Army Group headquarters in the Balkans.

Is Gunter Grass going to be given a "pass" for his politics? 

Pat Lang

Vietnam War

Someone said in a recent comment that we should thrash it out about Vietnam.  OK.  Start here.

Pat Lang

http://www.vietnam-war.info/myths/

The Advisor 26 August, 2006

Download the_advisor_26_august_2006.pdf

Someone should proof read these.

Pat Lang

Iraq Fatalities

"The death rate of American troops in Vietnam was 5.6 times that observed in Iraq. Part of the reduction in the death rate is attributable to improvements in military medicine and such things as the use of body armor. These have reduced the ratio of deaths to wounds from 24 percent in Vietnam to 13 percent in Iraq."  Washpost

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That is the unofficial insignia of the 1st Cavalry Division's medical evacuation unit in Vietnam. 

This is a very informative article about patterns of mortal losses in Iraq along with an occasional glance backward to compare the patterns to those of Vietnam.  There are still a lot of mythological beliefs "floating" around abut the statistical structure of combat losses in Vietnam.  Mis-statements were then politically convenient for some because of their disapproval of the war and these falsehoods live on.  Therefore, it is a good idea to establish the truth at an early date.  This article tries to do that.

A few comments:

- A lot of people wore body armor in Vietnam at least occasionally.  Body armor is better today but the multi-ply Kevlar worn then would stop fragments and was warm at night.

- The higher percentage of deaths in the Marine Corps is probably caused by the Army having a lot more logistical and administrative structure (some of which supports the marines as well).  This reduces the percentage of deaths since it is the "grunts" who take most of the hits as is always the case.

- Hispanic Lance Corporals (E-3s) in the Marine Corps are the most likely to die in Iraq.  Presumably these are infantrymen (grunts) and are the most exposed to fire.  Hispanics have a long running "love affair" with the marines.  They like the uniform.  They like the sense of regimental brotherhood.  They like its manliness.  As a result there are a lot of them in marine infantry specialties.  This carries a price.

- Blacks were killed in Vietnam in numbers roughly equivalent to their numbers in the US population and their numbers in the force in Vietnam.  In Iraq Black service people are dying at much smaller percentages than "all others."  The explanation is simple.  This is a volunteer force.  In general, recruits negotiate their way into the specialty of their choice.  A lot of Black soldiers have chosen to serve in specialties that do not expose one to fire on a regular basis; medical, supply, and so forth.  Navy medical corpsmen serving with the marines and national guardsmen seem to be exceptions. 

- Lieutenants in the infantry are exposed to hostile fire exactly as their men are exposed.  For that reason their losses are high.  The structure of the military is very hierarchical and by its very nature tends to move more senior officers to the rear as managers if they allow the system to push them that way.  Ever increasing administrative pressures push officers in that direction.  This is not a good idea.  If the troops get the idea in their heads that officers are not sharing the risk, then, in the end they lose respect for officers. 

Pat Lang

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/25/AR2006082500940.html?nav=hcmodule

La Rendicion de Breda

Diego Velazquez

"Fight 'em there or fight 'em here"

The cartoon involving Zawahiri below is here as a symbol of the vapid incomprehension of the Jihadi adversary which characterizes the thinking of many who suscribe to the "Fight 'em there or fight 'em here" school of "thought."

PL

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Is there a causal connection between civil war and insurgency in Iraq and an absence of Jihadi attacks in the United States?

Let's see - What would it be?

- People now fighting us in Iraq would otherwise be fighting us in the streets of Peoria?  How?  There were no Iraqis among the 9/11 attackers.  The bogus claims of people like Stephen Hayes that evidence exists of Saddamist/Al-Qa'ida collaboration are a fraud.  The only people who say or think that anymore are the simple minded dupes of the Bush Administration, committed neocons like the AEI crowd and the merely ambitious and venal hoping to have a few "bones" thrown their way.

- War in Iraq keeps the Jihadis fully occupied so that they don't have the planning energy left to work against the West in Europe or the United States.  Hello!!  Madrid, London twice, Indonesia, etc.

The fact is that the War does one thing.  It gives the Jihadis a convenient place to fight us and it may in the future give the Iranians a place to fight us on their own terms.

The RNC crowd are still saying this egregious crapola as a response to anything they don't like.  Ridiculous.

Ah, yes, what will be the reponse to this thought?  -Leftist- Defeatist- Jihadi Sympathizer - Someone who wants Saddam back in office, etc.

Sorry, I do love freedom, but the present Iraqi government ain't it.  No.  It is the triumph of Twelver Shiism.  This is something the Shia had never managed for themselves, but they have done well with the help of folks like Chalabi, my friend Reuel Gerecht and Zal Khalilzad (greatest American of all time according to Biden).

Pat Lang

Pete Hoekstra and a new Snow Job.

"The Washington Post said the House of Representatives' intelligence committee report backed the White House position that Tehran was developing a nuclear weapons program that posed a significant danger to the US, but it chided the intelligence community for not providing enough direct evidence to support that assertion.

"American intelligence agencies do not know nearly enough about Iran's nuclear weapons program" to help policy-makers at a critical time, the report said.

Information "regarding potential Iranian chemical weapons and biological weapons programs is neither voluminous nor conclusive", and little evidence had been gathered to tie Iran to al-Qa'ida and the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, it said. The report warns the US intelligence community to avoid the mistakes made regarding weapons of mass destruction before the Iraq war, noting that Iran could easily be engaged in "a denial and deception campaign to exaggerate progress on its nuclear program as Saddam Hussein apparently did concerning his WMD programs". " Washpost

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Out of sight!

The last quotation is the best. "as Saddam Hussein apparently did concerning his WMD programs."  Right!!  SH sought to "deceive" the world by not admitting that he no longer had any such capability."  Yup.  He fooled the US government and made us believe he still had capabilities that he did not have.  No?  Where is the evidence that he had such capabilities?   The pitiful 20 year old stocks of artillery shells that someone has dug up and that the desperate (like Santorum) want you to believe were a threat to the US armed forces or the United States itself.  By the way, I think Santorum is probably going to be elected, a commentary on Pennsylvania.

This 29 page retort from the House Intelligence Committee is so obvious a "stage setter" for another attack on the credibility of the Intelligence Community that this is just absurd.

The intelligence products that were used to justify the Iraq War were truly an intelligence failure as were the failed policy decisions and pressure that led to those documents.

What went wrong in the Intelligence Community?

1-Rotten leadership at the top that was both political and self-serving.  (Tenet and Jacoby)

2-Unremitting neocon pressure on analysts and intelligence managers to "support policy" by finding evidence, however flimsy, to support PR campaigns against the American citizenry.

This kind of pressure against the analysts, which never demands a re-write, but always demands a re-consideration of unfavored views inevitably leads to the desired result if intelligence and policy leadership do not halt it.

By the way, the emphasis on "media management " and internal propaganda has continued unabated.  Today, even formerly respectable military officers accept the concept of "information operations" directed at the American people.  Such operations continue apace with the eager cooperation of the corporate media.

The various committees, boards, etc., who declared that no one had been pressured?  Give me a break..  The Republicans like Roberts and those who wanted to curry favor were careful to interview officers in such a way as to make it clear that one could not entrust one's fate to such people.  In some cases the witnesses had been reminded by senior leadership before their testimony that they had not been "pressured."

So, now it has come again, the "beast that walks."  The principal author of this report was John Bolton's assistant in the State Department when the first "snow job" was underway.  What new discoveries about Iran will be the product of such pressure?

Pat Lang

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20244975-31477,00.html

Pirates Part 2 - Farrell

Download pirates_of_the_caribbean_dead_mans_chest.doc

General Farrell's review.

"Lebanese Public Opinion"

"What do Lebanese want? Lebanese Public Opinion. Well, there is a new public opinion survey released by the Beirut Center Quite revealing. 72 % of Lebanese believe that the resistance (a reference to Hizbullah) came out victorious from this war (70.8% of Sunnis; 96.3% of Shi`ites; 62.8% of Druzes; and 59.7% of Christians. To the question "Was the Israeli war on Lebanon due to the capture of two Israeli soldiers or to a premeditated plan, 84.6% of Lebanese believed it was due to a premeditated plan (81% of Sunnis; 97.2% of Shi`ites; 76.7% of Druzes; and 79.7% of Christians). 25.5% of Lebanese believe in the possibility of "peace with Israel" (21.3% of Sunnis; 1.9% of Shi`ites; 32.6% of Druzes; and 41.9% of Christians.)"  Lubnani

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I received the above polling data from the "Beirut Center" today through my friend "Lubnani.  Additional data on recent polling can be found at their website below.  I have no particular insight into the validity of this poll.

Pat Lang

http://www.beirutcenter.info/default.asp?contentid=692&MenuID=46

U.S. Intelligence officials: Israeli raid a violation

According to serving U.S. intelligence sources, Israel's commando raid conducted Saturday in eastern Lebanon aimed at recovering the two Israeli soldiers captured July 12 by Hizbullah.

These sources said that the Israeli commandos were wearing Lebanese Army uniforms during the operation.

They added that the Israeli soldiers apparently mispronounced an Arabic password while attempting to get through a Hizbullah checkpoint. They got through but were met a deadly ambush at the next checkpoint, these sources said.

The raid ccaused a firestorm in the Middle East. CNN quoted the Lebanese Defense Minister, Elias Murr, as threatening to halt the deployment of Lebanese Army troops to the country's southern region unless the United Nations can ensure Israeli compliance with Resolution 1701 requesting a pause in the fighting.

Israel defended its Saturday raid by claiming it was an operaton aimed at interdicting the transfer of weapons from Syria and Iran to Hizbullah, according to Israeli public statements.

But one U.S. intelligence source said, "That was an excuse worked out in advance -- to give the operaton some legitimacy. The real target was its two kidnapped soldiers," he said.

Another U.S. source said that ia commando raid was not an appropriate way to go about intercepting weapons shipments.

Richard Sale

Disarming Hizbullah

"Asked soon after about a new resolution, Bolton said, "As we've always contemplated, the disarming of Hezbollah, which was not specifically addressed in 1701, would have to be addressed, and that should be coming shortly."

But U.S. officials stressed that there is no new resolution on the drawing board yet.

"It's premature to talk about the timing of a second resolution at this point," said Bolton's spokesman, Richard Grenell. "Our priority right now is to get a robust international force on the ground."

The Security Council received a briefing Monday on the latest situation in Lebanon and efforts by the U.N. peacekeeping department to rapidly put together an expanded force.

Asked how confident he was that the U.N. can come up with the numbers it needs, Bolton replied: "I think it's still a work in progress. I think that's the best I can say. I don't think there's any doubt in our mind of the urgency of the deployment of the full, enhanced UNIFIL as soon as possible."

Bolton stressed that the U.S. "road map" includes full implementation of Resolution 1559 adopted by the Security Council in 2004, which calls for the disarmament of all militias in Lebanon — including Hezbollah.

"So the question of dealing with Hezbollah — or whether they deal with themselves by becoming a real political party instead of a terrorist group — is obviously on the agenda," he said.

Bolton said the initial force "can be deployed now but it's obviously closely linked" to disarming Hezbollah.

"And we want the disarming of Hezbollah to be accomplished rapidly so that the democratically elected government of Lebanon can establish full control over its territory," he said.

Bolton said an expanded force could be deployed and then have its mandate changed later."  Yahoo

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I am having another of my "I don't get it" minutes.  Let's see - Resolutions from the UN are only as good as the possibility of implementation.  HA fought the IDF to a standstill in a month of combat and recently roughed up a heliborne raid by "elite" IDF commandos.

This demonstrated military potential makes Nasrallah and company the strongest "player" in Lebanon.  Without his military force Nasrallah will be at the mercy of his many enemies.  The Levant is not a forgiving place.

Why is it that Bolton and Bush think the Nasrallah is going to comply with a UN resolution that calls for his force to disarm.  Why would he do it  Why?  The Iranians are going to be sanctioned by another UN resolution which they are going to ignore.  So, they are not going to be urging HA to comply.  Bashar Assad is another unlikely sponsor for disarmament.

I am sure that some of you will explain this notion of the two "Bs" for me.

Pat Lang

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060821/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_un_2

"Lack of adequate logistical support"

"The Iraqi Army presently must rely on US logistical support to conduct the majority of its operations. It currently lacks critical support services such as transportation, medevac capabilities, medical logistics, and intelligence. Until the Iraqi Army can develop these capabilities, it will continue to depend on US forces for support."

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There are a number of related things about the situation in Iraq that continue to bother me.  One of them came into clear focus today when I heard a "talking head" (British) mention the lack of "underpinning" and military "infrastructure" possessed by the new army that we have been building in Iraq.

Armies are famously dependent on their logistical "tail," that is the aggregation of all the services an army needs to exist and operate and the organizations which fulfill those needs.

-Supply

-Maintenance

-Medical service

-Transportation

-Communications

Add some more categories if you like.

The old Iraqi Army had all these services.  That was one of the good reasons for not abandoning it as an institution.  I am familiar with the argument that the old Iraqi Army had disbanded itself and I reject that argument because the officers and men who manned the above listed services were still present in the country and could have been brought back into service to resume performing the jobs they had done all their professional lives.  These men had sustained a long, long war against Iran and had continued to sustain what was left of their army through many years of sanctions and Saddam's idiocy.  They could have done the job.

Bremer is eager to take credit for the dissolution of that army and its replacement with a madcap collection of semi-militia national guard units, a tiny, under-equipped border defense force and a lot of police.  This has "morphed" into a sizable army which is still under-equipped for combat against both the insurgents and the true sectarian militia armies from whom the army will ultimately and inevitably have to wrest control of Iraq.

To make that worse, much worse it now seems clear to me that this army that we have been creating is almost entirely an organization made up of headquarters and combat units...  As it is now, the Iraqi army depends on the coalition for its logistics.

Well, folks, we need to have a discussion about that.  Until the Iraqi Army can sustain itself, we coalitionists can never leave without leaving behind us a collapsing force.

Pat Lang

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Iraqi_Army#Lack_of_adequate_logistical_support

Grimgrins' Pony

Grimgrin offers this.  I would rather have him/her say it.  pl

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How do you say "And as long as I'm dreaming, I'd like a pony" in Hebrew?

Off the top of my head, Mr. Kimche makes 6 glaring errors in this piece.

First he asserts that Israel won on the battlefield but was "convinced" it lost by skilled propaganda. That doesn't even pass the laugh test, as I'm sure everyone here knows. A war is not a boxing match. The winner is the one who accomplishes their goals, not the one who scores the most hits.

Second he asserts that this was a war suddenly thrust upon Israel. This is an utter lie. Israel was planning a war in southern Lebanon for years and had even been planning operations with the U.S. .Of course this lie is necessary to bolster the first, because if he admits that it was a long planned war then it becomes harder to pretend that they won this round.

Third, it's somewhat ironic that in a piece titled "Put Away the long knives", the author spends three paragraphs blaming the previous Israeli Government and the army for their performance in this war. After he just got through telling us that Israel won on points. "We didn't loose, and anyway, it's not our fault we lost" is a succinct way of putting it.

Fourth he conflates the opinions held by the leadership of the Arab world with the populace. The Arab heads of state are probably less worried about Iranian hegemony, and more worried about their own positions if militias patterned on Hezbollah spread through the region.

Fifth, he declared that Christians and Sunni are convinced they have to "Go on the offensive". Really? Against a group that just fought Israel to a standstill? He persists in talks about the Christians and Sunni Muslims as if the war had done nothing to shape their opinions about Israel, Hezbollah and the west. "Do we want Rivera or a bunker", given that the Rivera just got blown up by Israeli jets, I'd imagine the bunker, and Hezbollah with it is looking pretty good to citizens on the ground.

Finally he talks about the need for a new peace process. He doesn't seem to realize that the terms an invincible Israel got from Arab heads of state are not likely to be the same as the terms that will be offered to an Israel that's been beaten on the battlefield by a homegrown army.

The idea that Syria and Iran would agree to disarm the most effective opponent to Israel and America for a vague notion of rejoining the international community, again doesn't pass the laugh test.

Mr. Lang, I remember you saying to watch the length of posts, so if you like you can replace this comment with "The article is delusional bullshit from start to finish"."

Grimgrin

"Put away the long knives, and move forward"

This is from the Jerusalem Post (new Christian edition, I believe). pl
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"Put away the long knives, and move forward
By DAVID KIMCHE

Our latest Lebanese War has turned our entire region upside down. We in Israel are, of course, preparing for the next war, the War of the Jews. The long knives have already been sharpened.

Some of the shriller correspondents in the daily press share the view of the propagandists across the border that Hizbullah achieved a resounding victory, and they loudly proclaim that the government, therefore, must be sent packing. To those bemoaning our terrible defeat, I suggest they read an article in The Times entitled "If this was a defeat, the Israelis must be praying for a lot more of them." The article analyzes the war, and ends with the following words: "If this is a 'defeat,' then Israel can afford many similar outcomes."

There certainly was no outright victory - or defeat - in this war. We won on points on the battlefield, and Hizbullah won handsomely in the propaganda war, and perception being all-important, many people, including in Israel, are convinced that Israel suffered a terrible defeat.

There can be no doubt that many mistakes were made. A newly appointed government led by two inexperienced leaders had a war suddenly thrust upon it. Yet their decision to pick up the gauntlet was a correct one. If they had hesitated or procrastinated then Hizbullah could have justly proclaimed a real victory. The premier and his defense minister relied, correctly, on their top adviser in military affairs, the chief of staff, just as previous prime ministers and ministers of defense have done in similar circumstances.

The Advisor 19 August, 2006

Download the_advisor_19_august_2006.pdf

"Scoop" a movie review

Download Scoop.doc

By Alan Farrell

A One Sided Truce

"Lebanon threatened on Saturday to halt troop deployments to the south of the country after Israeli commandos struck deep in the Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, putting the six-day ceasefire with Hezbollah guerrillas to a critical test .

Israel said the raid was launched to stop arms smuggling to the militant Shiite fighters, but Lebanon said the operation violated the UN truce agreement. One Israeli officer was killed fighting Hezbollah guerrillas, and two were wounded, one seriously.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora accused Israel of a "flagrant violation of the cessation of hostilities announced by the Security Council," and said he would take the issue up with UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.

Defence Minister Elias Murr threatened to halt deployment of Lebanese troops if the United Nations did not intervene against Israel.

"If there are no clear answers forthcoming on this issue, I might be forced to recommend to the cabinet early next week the halt of the army deployment in the south," he told reporters after a meeting with UN representatives."  Canada.com

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If Israel persists in unilateral attacks justified by its own understanding of the terms of the UN Resolution, the truce will surely become meaningless very soon.

Pat Lang

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/story.html?id=47140c71-3a54-4219-a34f-5bf5df50f1d4&k=20945

And furthermore: this violation of a truce is typical of the IDF when faced with the "niceties" of international law and the customary law of war.  They observe the rules when it suits them.  Pat Lang

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060819/ap_on_re_mi_ea/lebanon_israel

Brothers in Arms?

""Hezbollah and the army are united. We are one," the Lebanese military sergeant said, declining to give his name because he was not authorized to speak to the media. "I will tell you the truth. My brother is in Hezbollah, so why would I want to take his weapon?

"We couldn't do it even if we wanted to. Hezbollah is stronger than we are."

The sergeant's view was commonplace in Lebanon.

Virtually nobody in this country thinks the Lebanese Army is up to the task assigned to it under UN Resolution 1701. Even the Lebanese government has said its troops will only ask Hezbollah not to carry their weapons which still includes an arsenal of about 8,000 Katyusha rockets around in public"  Canada.com

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France is in the process of opting out of a large troop commitment to the "international force" because the French government rightly sees that the mandate envisioned for the force does not match reality on the ground and probably never will.  Without a lot of French troops the whole intention of the "international force" will be thwarted.  France is the only European country with an expeditionary power projection capabilty sufficient to the job.  I doubt if Israel will find the prospect of having its northern bvorder "secured" by Turks, Malaysians, Indonesians, etc. to be very attractive.

On a different but related subject, the Arab states have now declared at the UN that they want a new peace process to begin in the Middle East because the "road map" is dead.  What they want is a new "Madrid," a new beginning in the everlasting attempt to find peace between the Arabs and Israel.

Will the United States want that?  Probably not.  Why?  It is our policy to seek an end to the govenments that would be parties to such a peace, not to consolidate their positions as signatories of a peace that would bring them the approval of their people.

Pat Lang

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/story.html?id=d31ac7bc-ee2a-4338-924a-c22baeba3239

A Levantine Solution

"The Lebanese government ordered the army to "insure respect" for the Blue Line, the U.N.-demarcated border between Lebanon and Israel, and "apply the existing laws with regard to any weapons outside the authority of the Lebanese state."

That provision does not require Hezbollah to give up its arms, but rather directs them to keep them off the streets.

The Cabinet session to implement the cease-fire was twice delayed because two Hezbollah members of the government objected to enforcement of the key U.N. demand that the guerrilla force be disarmed.

Hezbollah's top official in south Lebanon issued the strongest indication yet that the guerrillas would not disarm in the region or withdraw, but rather melt into the local population and hide their weapons. "  Yahoo

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How Lebanese!  Mabrouk!

Lebanon is a country which remains more of a geographical expression than anything else.  Created as a kind of "reservation" for the Maronite Christians by the French, it has never really come together as a nation-state, although the Israelis are making more progress in uniting the citizens of Lebanon than has been seen before.

This will be the solution:  The Lebanese Army, the French led UNIFIL+, and the Hizbullah army will co-exist in an unhappy but more or less amicable co-dominium for the foreseeable future.  Resolution 1701 will be satisfied and from the point of view of the Lebanese, honor will be satisfied.

(This is General Pellegrini the commander of UNIFIL+)

Only the United States and Israel will be left to contemplate the frustrations of their hopes and plans in baffled anger.

Will the armed conflict be renewed at some future date?  Of course it will.  More importantly the strategic deterrent of both Israel and the United States has been badly damaged and from that much evil will come.

How could Israel have been so foolish as to believe what it evidently did believe?  After all these years of study of the Arabs and Lebanon...

Pat Lang

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060817/ap_on_re_mi_ea/lebanon_israel

Endorsement

------These are Macaca monkeys.  Senator George Allen called a young American man of Indian ancestry a "macaca" at a campaign function in Virginia this week.

This young man was born in Fairfax County, Virginia and is as American as Allen.

He works for the Jim Webb senatorial campaign and was filming Allen at the time that Allen called him that to the crowd.

Allen was wrong to do this, and more seriously is too stupid to represent Virginia in the US Senate.

I have added the following citation to this post from "The Forward" of an article which describes Allen's heritage.

http://www.forward.com/articles/alleged-slur-casts-spotlight-on-senator%e2%80%99s-jewis/

I find it hard to believe that Allen did not know of his own rather illustrious ancestry on his mother's side.  This puzzles me because Virginia has a long record of relatively amicable relations among religious communities.  Considering Senator Allen's peculiar behavior, and close adherence to the "line" of the Bush Administration on foreign policy, I will vote for Webb.

Pat Lang

"Nasrallah didn't mean to"

By Amira Hass

"During the past month, Hezbollah's Katyushas killed 18 Israeli Arabs among the 41 Israeli civilians who died in the war. Clearly, Hassan Nasrallah didn't mean to kill them. But as someone who knows that many Arabs live in northern Israel, and as someone who knows that the launchers for his inaccurate Katyushas cannot choose the target they will hit - the fact that it was unintended is meaningless. More than anyone, Israelis should understand Nasrallah's claims that this was "unintended," identify with the primacy he attaches to the "unintendedness" relative to the fatal results, and identify with the disjunction he creates between the rationale that is inherent in the war machine he has built and his subjective will. "We didn't mean to" is a mantra that is frequently recited in Israel when there is a discussion of the number of civilians - among them many children - who are killed by the Israel Defense Forces. To this, the claim that "they" (Hezbollah and the Palestinians) cynically exploit civilians by locating themselves among them and firing from their midst is automatically added." Amira Hass in Ha'aretz --------------------------------------------------------------- Israeli bombardment of Lebanese towns in the north and infrastructure seems to have been intended as an "incentive" for Lebanese government cooperation.  The Israelis maintain that they attacked targets in the "deep north" that were picked to impede Hizbullah operations and logistics.  Beirut airport?  Come on...  If you believe the Israeli description of their motivation, then I have a bridge that I would like to sell you.  The fire that went into towns in the south was more clearly linked to the failed attempt to drive Hizbullah away from the Israeli border.  As Amira Hass says in this Ha'aretz column such use of firepower will inevitably kill and wound civilians who are in the way. Hizbullah did the same thing.  They fired into Israeli towns with weapons systems so inaccurate that the town itself must be the aiming point.  I will leave it to some colleague to explain the firing characteristics of unguided artillery rockets. Both groups place military facilities and targets in populated areas.  It is inevitable that they should do so. Immoral equivalence?  Without a doubt.  Unfortunately, a lot of that is inherent in warfare. Pat Lang

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/750978.html

Leaving the Battlefield

KHIAM, Lebanon, Aug. 14 -- A little after dawn Monday, the shells crashed every few seconds. The last fell at 7:56 a.m. Then they stopped, as suddenly as they had begun 33 days before. And into the streets of this Shiite Muslim town, where electricity wires laced through rubble and a tree branch sprawled across the hood of a green BMW, the fighters emerged, bathed in a cool mountain breeze.

There was no gunfire in the air, no chants, no jubilant displays of celebration. There were, rather, the satisfied expressions of survival. Men embraced, kissing each other's cheeks, some emerging into sunlight for the first time in weeks. Cellphones, in almost everyone's hand, rang with queries of others' whereabouts, the fate of houses and the reality of a cease-fire that still seemed fragile. They smiled. "Thank God for your safety" was the refrain.

And Hussein Kalash, burly, hard and confident,   offered three words that defined the war for Khiam's defenders, the Hezbollah fighters.

"We're still here," he said.

Anthony Shadid

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Israel is leaving the battlefield in Lebanon.  It has already begun to withdraw troops from north of the border, and plans to withdraw all of its forces when relieved by UNIFIL+ and the Lebanese Army.  When that relief might take place is unclear.

What is clear is that Hizbullah's forces remain in place all over the disputed zone and that its command and control of its forces remains effective.  How can you know that?  Easy.  The day before the cease fire Hizbullah fired 250 rockets into Israel and since the cease fire has fired none. This represents unmistakable evidence of effective command.

The IDF believes that Hizbullah is using the southward flow of returning refugees to infiltrate reinforcements and re-supply into the area near the border only partially occupied by the IDF.  Between and among the scattered positions of the IDF there are many areas empty of Israeli troops.  There are Hizbullah forces in these areas waiting for re-supply.  The IDF must know that.  Why are they vacating the battlefield in these circumstances?

A basic lesson of history is that one must win on the battlefield to dictate the peace.  A proof of winning on the battlefield has always been possession of that battlefield when the shooting stops.  Those who remain on the field are just about always believed to have been victorious. Those who leave the field are believed to be the defeated.

Lee remained on the field a day after both Antietam and Gettysburg waiting to resume the fight.  McClellan and Meade did not respond and Lee then moved away withdrawing to the south.  He is thought to have been defeated in both battles although both could be argued to have been a "draw."

Look at the man on the stretcher.  If this situation continues to develop along present lines, he will be considered the victor of the 2006 Israeli/Hizbullah War.

Pat Lang

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/14/AR2006081401345.html

A Saracen Blade

Someone created this for me.  The blade is Damascus steel.  The Guard is metal from a meteorite.  It is wrapped in Springbok sinew and the handle is a cave bear tooth.

It was made to fit my hand.  I was asked to re-post this.

Pat Lang

"Conclusions" by GaW

Received this from "Got a Watch."  Interesting.

Pat Lang

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"My conclusions, tentatively, on the Lebanon "war""

-the main battle tank (and indeed most armored vehicles) are increasingly vulnerable to modern weaponry...the balance has shifted in favor
of infantry firing missiles, and this trend can only continue unless some new light-weight impenetrable armor can be devised.
-the same can be said for the helicopter gunship, as evidence by the recent US cancellation of the new gunship program over vulnerability to missiles
-both of these factors point to the increasing importance of infantry over more advanced systems, which is a boost for less well equipped guerrillas
-the power of "Air Power" is vastly over-rated by western militaries, and they will no doubt continue to rely on it more and more, which is why any campaign in Iran is doomed to failure before it starts (also because bombing infrastructure only angers the population and stiffens resistance)
-western military doctrine in general sems to be moribund, preparing to fight the next WWIII on the WWII model..witness the US obsession with locating military bases all over the world to "encircle" future enemies like Iran, China etc.
-popular movements like Hezbollah can not be defeated by any kind of military force...they may be suppressed, but they will rise again unless the geo-political reasons for their having come into existence are not addressed
-the leading cause of modern Islamic terrorism is 60 years of bad foreign policy by USA/UK...or to put it more bluntly, when you go into other peoples countries at will to interfere, you only make more people angry at you - I read that Osama founded Al-Qaeda in 1982 because he saw on TV the Israeli devastation of Lebanon. How many new Al-**** have been created by the last month's events, I wonder. (I am not excusing religious fanaticism, but more than religious differences are required to motivate suicide bombers, there has to be perceived "unjust" action from the other side too
I have more thoughts, will assemble them for a future post - keep up the good work people. Too bad nobody in Washington in a position of real influence seems to be listening. In short, IMHO America as a nation has lost its way, mistaking aggression for wise policy. Wise might be someone who can recognise a situation that they do not like but have to accept for the sake of future stability."  Got a Watch

"The Advisor" 12 August, 2006

Download the_advisor_12_august_2006.pdf

John Pistone

A Lebanese View

"what a joke:

the Leb. govt' pledges it will be the sole "power" south of the Litani ...

I want to see them enforce that: How can you prevent the son of, let's say  Maroun il rass from returning home? regardless of affiliation. Unless the jesters like Nayla Moawad and Joe Sarkis have a "plan." 

"They" will return Home, back to being teachers, grocers and barbers ... Officers of the UNIFIL and the LAF will be their clients ... and they'll wait to fight another day.

weaponry you ask? haven't seen any... have you??"

Lubnani

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I received this from a friend in Beirut who works for the Lebanese Government.  I have been thinking about the probable outcome of the "cease-fire" that is supposed to go into effect tomorrow.

Bethmann-Hollweg, the German Foreign Minister said in 1914 that the treaty that protected Belgian neutrality was "a scrap of paper."   What he meant was that treaties are observed when they serve the interests of the parties to them.

Israel wants to destroy Hizbullah.  It has not done that as yet.  Hizbullah is a home-grown Shia force.  As "Lubnani" says they will go home if there is peace and wait to fight another day.  Hizbullah has not yet been defeated. 

Some poor French general is going to lead French, Italian and Turkish soldiers into this maelstrom where they are to be ready to fight Hizbullah all over south Lebanon?  On top of that he is supposed to coordinate with and assist 15,000 Lebanese soldiers who will be expected to fight other Lebanese in order to disarm them?

I hear that Elliot Abrams thinks this has been a big victory for our policy of revolutionary change in the Middle East.

Maybe he and Olmert could open a restaurant together, somewhere...

Pat Lang

Bad Tux on IDF Performance

"I would be very careful about coming to any conclusions about weapons that HA is using based upon IDF sources. The IDF has a natural desire to hype up HA's weaponry as an excuse for their poor performance. It is unlikely, for example, that HA possesses many Kornets. Syria bought around 1,000 Kornets, but the chances they gave HA many of those Kornets is slim -- they need the Kornets as a deterrent against Israeli armor for their own defense. Iran itself does not have Kornets in any great quantity (if at all), they are relying on their Sagger, Spandrel, and TOW clones, which they reverse-engineered or licensed and produce cheaply in their own factories. Iran is very careful about their arms purchases in order to get the best bang for the buck, and if they can make effective weapons locally (and the above-named are plenty effective if deployed in sufficient quantity and provided with upgraded warheads and guidance systems), they do not buy, they build.

I read a description of the Israeli attack upon Marjayoun by a Western reporter. He painted a picture of Merkavas slowly trudging along through a valley then suddenly HA appeared on the ridge lines surrounding them. As the Merkavas attempting to engage targets with their weaponry, HA missiles flew in from all sides. He saw a Merkava disabled, apparently by a missile that came from its hind quarter, which even on a Merkava is weaker than the frontal armor. The Merkava caught on fire, and its crew bailed and ran for shelter at another Merkava as the line of Merkavas started pumping out smoke everywhere to fend off further attacks.

I do not think possession of a Kornet (or not) would have made much of a difference in that situation. If HA is successfully drawing Israeli armor into kill boxes, you will see tanks killed, period, even if all HA had were the upgraded Saggers that I referred to earlier. It simply is impossible to armor a tank equally over its whole body, the tank would be so heavy as to be immobile. A tank will always have weak points, and if you can get tanks into a kill box like described above, you will have tanks getting killed.

As for what the Iranian Saggers, Spandrels and TOW's cost to build, vs. a Merkava, think maybe $5,000 apiece, max, for the missiles if you have free labor (as Iran effectively does). A Merkava costs approximately $4.4 million dollars (or about the same as a M1A1). However, the Merkavas thus far disabled by HA have mostly not been cooked off, thus are salvageable and repairable. Merkavas are designed to be easy to repair, so it is likely that most of those "killed" by HA will go back into combat sooner or later.

In any event, as Pat has noted earlier, pay little attention to the technology that HA is using. It is not the technology that is making them effective. It is their training and dedication that are making them effective. And for that matter, Israeli incompetence -- it is not so much that HA is fighting like supermen (they have obviously studied their art and are executing it, but if they were really the supermen they've been accounted to be, Israeli casualties would be much higher), as it is that the IDF is fighting extremely poorly. Tankers, for example, should never allow themselves to get into enclosed kill boxes where the enemy can fire down onto their less-armored top and rear parts. The fact that IDF tanks have managed to put themselves into exactly that position is a sign of incompetence on their part, rather than super-human competence on HA's part. HA is just doing Warfighting 101. The IDF is doing... well, poorly."

-BT

------------------------------------------------------------------

"Bad Tux" is the "handle" of a frequent commenter on SST 2006.  This is an informed analysis of IDF performance thus far.

BT is correct in observing that the IDF has not fought well in Lebanon so far.  Tank/infantry coordination has been poor and the state of training and equipment of reserve units is not impressive.

Pat Lang

OP8 and the Future

""OP8. Calls for Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution based on the following principles and elements:

-- full respect for the Blue Line by both parties;
-- security arrangements to prevent the resumption of hostilities, including the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river of an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the government of Lebanon and of UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11, deployed in this area;
-- full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of July 27, 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state;
-- no foreign forces in Lebanon without the consent of its government;
-- no sales or supply of arms and related materiel to Lebanon except as authorized by its government;
-- provision to the United Nations of all remaining maps of land mines in Lebanon in Israel's possession.  UN Resolution 1701

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1- "Between the Blue Line and the Litani River."  The Litani closely approaches the panhandle of Israel in the area of Metulla.  The river then extends north away from Israel.  What are the boundaries of the "buffer zone" in that area since the language of the resolution does not describe them?

2- Since Hizbullah is a legal political party in Lebanon with representation in parliament and ministers in the government, what is to prevent the integration of Hizbullah forces into the Lebanese government security forces?  If that occurs then the provisions of OP8 will be fulfilled with regard to the exclusivity of the possession of armed forces by the Lebanese government.

3- In the event of the integration of Hizbullah forces into those of Lebanon, then re-supply of those forces from outside Lebanon will not violate the relevant portion of OP8.

It should be remembered that Hizbullah and its Shia political ally "Amal" control a bloc of seats in the Lebanese parliament amounting to 35 seats out of 128.  Democracy in action.

Pat Lang

http://newsinfo.inq7.net/breakingnews/world/view_article.php?article_id=14873

The Tabouleh Line - 3

To the left we have the town of Cassino, south of Rome.  This is "where" the war in south Lebanon is headed.  Pat Lang

"Hizbullah's older anti-tank weapons have been effective against armoured personnel carriers and buildings used by soldiers for shelters. Its newer weapons such as the Russian Kornet and US TOW missiles have been highly effective succeeded in piercing the armour of Israel's main battle tank, the Merkava, reputedly one of the best-defended tanks in the world.

One member of an Israeli tank crew who had just left Lebanon told the Guardian: "It's terrible. You do not fight anti-tank teams with tanks. You use infantry supported by artillery and helicopters. Wide valleys without shelter are the wrong place to use tanks."

Although he said Hizbullah's weapons had been supplied by Iran, Lt Col Rafowicz admitted the militants' prowess also stemmed from its morale and organisation. They are very keen to engage our forces. They are not wearing suicide bomb belts but they are not afraid to die, which makes deterrence very difficult."

Gen Nehushtan said: "We have to recognise that we will be dealing with new definitions of victory. There will be no white flags being raised on this battlefield," he said." Guardian

--------------------------------------------------------------

That is quite a tribute from General Nehushtan.  The British parliament attempted to censure Churchill when he said something similar about the German 1st Airborne Division during the battle for Monte Cassino.

No suicide belts.  That means that they are just going to "slug" it out with the IDF.

I am still puzzled by the assertions being made in some quarters that Hassan Nasrallah is going to accept a UN "deal" that implies that he lost the war.

Perhaps I am missing something.

Pat Lang

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1842276,00.html

The Tabouleh Line - 2

"Israeli soldiers have been shaken by the fighters’ skill and commitment, describing them as an army, not a rabble. “Even I have been surprised at the tenacity of these groups fighting in the villages,” Timur Goksel, who served with UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon from 1979 to 2003, said. “They have fought far beyond my expectations and they haven’t even committed all their fully experienced troops yet.” "  London Times

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I hear that the Israelis have been engaged so far with "village reserves," and that they have not yet met the standing forces of HA.  This echeloning of categories of forces sounds a lot like the Viet Minh/NVA/VC politico-military set up.  Other revolutionary armies?

This is not guerrilla war.  Forget that.  This is positional warfare waged using field fortifications as the base and pivot so that a heavier force advancing into the "grid" of the defense can be engaged and defeated by attrition.  So far, they are doing quite a job.  A force in the process of evolution is what I would call HA.

Don't get too worked up about how old the equipment is or who built what.  If it kills, it kills, and the quality of the fortification project speaks for itself.

It is what is inside these men that counts.  As the old "gunny" says in "Full Metal Jacket," "It is the hard heart that kills."

Pat Lang

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,251-2306510,00.html

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,251-2306725,00.html

The "Tabouleh Line?"

"Although the army had conquered the town, Hezbollah men were hiding in underground bunkers well camouflaged from the outside. The bunkers had been stocked with large quantities of food, enough to last for weeks, and ammunition, including antitank missiles and, in several cases, short-range rockets.

The bunkers are connected to electricity and, according to one report, are air conditioned. When the fighting dies down, Hezbollah fighters emerge from the bunkers and set up ambushes for IDF soldiers and armored vehicles.

That is why soldiers are hit repeatedly in the same places.

On several occasions, there have been difficulties evacuating wounded soldiers under fire. At times, Hezbollah fighters have fired rockets at Israel from areas close to the border that the IDF had supposedly conquered already. The means available to flush the guerrillas out of their underground shelters are not always employed."  Ze'ev Schiff in Ha'aretz

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

These fellows have had a lot of help from someone.  One does not learn how to organize and plan a deliberate defense like this from reading a few books.  They may have learned a good deal by reading about construction of such positions but the "art" of integrating all this into a coherent whole probably required outside help.  I would "vote" for the Iranians as "helpers."

It is to be expected that there may be further fortified belts to the north of this one.  "Belts" may not be an exact dexcription.  What I mean is a defense distributed in depth over a considerable distance.  It has usually been the case that command of a defense like this is facilitated by organizing the command structure into zones of some kind.

It begins to sound like an historic battle in the making.  The intention seems to have been clear.  It was to lure the Israelis into an attritional battle.

Pat Lang

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/748441.html

Polling Data from Lebanon

I received this from a Lebanese friend now in Beirut.

Pat Lang

------------------------------------------------------------------------

A new poll from Lebanon. I have just received from Abdu Sa`d, director of the Beirut Center for Research and Data, the results of a new public opinion poll that was conducted between 6th and 7th of August in Lebanon (and it included refugees from South Lebanon). The survey had one question: "Should Lebanon consent to international resolutions that are in conflict with the seven points that were adopted by the Lebanese government"? 88% of the Lebanese people said no. Shi`ites had the largest percentage of rejection (96.6%); followed by Sunnis (91.4%); followed by Christians (80.4%), and then Druzes (79.4%).

An End To Militias

We have tended to think of Hizbullah in terms of mobs of men marching around Beirut in odd looking uniforms carrying yellow flags.  We are now learning that reality is more like this fellow on the left.  The big war in the south of Lebanon is not over yet.  We have yet to see a really serious Israeli ground effort there, but based on what has happened so far, I think we have to rate the Hizbullah army as a serious ground force.  It is said that the Hizbullah army was trained by the Iranians but, I think that in a more profound sense they were trained by the Israel Defense Force.  Clausewitz maintained that the best school of war is war itself.  This is a variant of the old saw that claims that "whatever does not kill you makes you stronger."  The Hizbullah army fought the IDF for many years.  Throughout that time the Hizbullahis (or Hizbalians according to POTUS) observed the methods and "style" of the IDF.  Israeli soldiers returned from Lebanon express surprise that the guerrillas look and dress like them.  They should not be surprised.  It is a kind of compliment.

On the other hand you have these guys, seen here observing a demonstration.  The Lebanese Army is a force of "asphalt soldiers."  They have never really fought anyone and their governments have carefully avoided putting them to that test.  They are a mixed group in confessional terms, although the command of the force has always been entrusted to a Maronite Christian under the terms of the National Accord.

Israel has said that it is one of its war aims to have this force move to the south where it would occupy the border country and "control" the Hizbullah army after disarming it with the "assistance" of an international or possibly interplanetary force from outside Lebanon.

The Lebanese government has now offered to send 15,000 of these perhaps fierce, but certainly untested, tigers to accomplish this stated Israeli desideratum in return for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.  The Israelis no longer seem as charmed by the prospect.

Why?

1- The Hizbullah army command does not seem concerned at the prospect of 15,000 Lebanese Army troops in their area.

2- What will be the re-action of these 15,000 soldiers when confronted with the idea of actually fighting their own countrymen who are in arms against a common foe?

3- The most frequently heard suggestion for consolidating armed force under the Lebanese government has been the incorporation of the militias (read Hizbullah) into the Lebanese Army.  The Lebanese Army has nicer uniforms, and the survivors of the fights in Bint J'bail and Aita al-Sha''b will look good in them.

That will take care of the Israelis' problems? 

Pat Lang

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Lebanon

Amre Moussa and the UN

"Arab foreign ministers decided Monday to send a delegation to the United Nations to represent Lebanon's interests at the Security Council, an aide to Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora said.

The three-man delegation will include the foreign ministers of Qatar, the only Arab member on the Security Council, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa.

"The Arab delegation will support Lebanon's position at the United Nations and seek to amend the U.S.-French draft resolution," the aide told The Associated Press."  Yahoo

Arab League photo

of Amre Mousa

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I have had the privilege of meeting with this gent (AM) on several occasions.  I was always about the least important person at the meeting and so was able to concentrate on observing him.

Several Observations:

- I would like to have the tapestry that was hanging on the wall in his Foreign Ministry office.  (Wonderful tapestries in Egypt!!)

- He is good at dissimulation but at heart is a very old fashioned Egyptian.

- He is a Pan-Arab nationalist of the Nasser school.  His survival to date in Egyptian government is a monument to his skills as a bureaucrat of vast guile and flexibility.

- He went from the job of Foreign Minister to the Arab League because he wasn't as cooperative in matters concerning the US and Israel as his boss (HM) wanted.

- He does not really like us Americans.  (strange)

Summing up - I like him.  I don't care for foreign leaders who want to be petted all the time and he does not.  Is he crooked (money)?  Well... Everything is relative. in the ME.

In short, he is George W. Bush's idea of an "Arab League" Secretary General from Hell.

"The Arab delegation will support Lebanon's position at the United Nations and seek to amend the U.S.-French draft resolution,"

You can bet your next paycheck on that.

If the Arab League condemns the resolution ultimately adopted, this will provide "cover" for the Arab rulers to re-position themselves with regard to the Hizbullah/Israel war, and they will do so.  Israel's high handed conduct in Lebanon and GWB's assumption that he has the rulers under control insures that they will.  They are not children to be treated this way.

Pat Lang

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060807/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_fighting_arabs

"The Advisor" 5 August, 2006

Download the_advisor_05_august_2006.pdf

"An Arab Guerrilla Army"

"Hizbullah is proving to be something altogether new, an Arab guerrilla army with sophisticated weaponry and remarkable discipline. Its soldiers have the jihadist rhetoric of fighting to the death, but wear body armor and use satcoms to coordinate their attacks. Their tactics may be from Che, but their arms are from Iran, and not just AK-47s and RPGs. They've reportedly destroyed three of Israel's advanced Merkava tanks with wire-guided missiles and powerful mines, crippled an Israeli warship with a surface-to-sea missile, sent up drones on reconnaissance missions, implanted listening devices along the border and set up their ambushes using night-vision goggles.

NEWSWEEK has learned from a source briefed in recent weeks by Israel's top leaders and military brass that Hizbullah even managed to eavesdrop successfully on Israel's military communications as its Lebanese incursion began."  Newsweek

---------------------------------------------------------------------

There have been Arab guerrilla armies before.  The "Arab Revolt" against the Turks in WW1 was in part a campaign fought by Beduin guerrilla forces and in part a conventional war fought by "regular" units of infantry, cavalry, etc. led by former Ottoman officers of Arab extraction and advised by the British and French.

In the Iraq of the '20s and the Syria and Palestine of the '30s Arab guerrillas fought colonial and Zionist forces for years.  In the end they all were defeated by the application of technology, western methods of warfare, and police methods imported by the colonial powers from such places as India and Ireland.

The Lebanese Hizbullah "Arab Guerrilla Army" is something different.  What Newsweek describes is a force in transition, a force becoming a real army.  Vo Nguyen Giap wrote in "People's War, People's Army"  that a national resistance movement's armed force must "evolve" from political agitprop activities to guerrilla war and eventually to the status and capability of regular armed forces if it is to succeed in defeating its enemies and seizing " a place at the table" in its country's future.

Some will say that Hizbullah's army is not a "national force."  They will say that it is merely a cats-paw of the Iranians and the Syrians.  They will say that the money and the equipment are Iranian.  This is all true, but the polling today in Lebanon indicates that the Lebanese (both Christian and Muslim) believe Hizbullah's army to be a national force.  I would welcome comments in regard to that polling.

I think that the Lebanese/Israeli war is pounding the "arch" of Lebanese society with a hammer, driving the "keystone" into the arch and tightening the fabric of cohesive national resistance to Israel.  That keystone is now painted with a yellow flag.

Pat Lang

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14208385/

"Iraqi civil war has already begun, U.S. troops say."

By Tom Lasseter

"BAGHDAD, Iraq - While American politicians and generals in Washington debate the possibility of civil war in Iraq, U.S. officers and enlisted men who patrol Baghdad daily say it has already begun.

Army troops in and around Baghdad interviewed in the last week cite a long list of evidence that the center of the nation is coming undone: Villages have been abandoned by Sunni and Shiite Muslims; Sunni insurgents have killed thousands of Shiites in car bombings and assassinations; Shiite militia death squads have tortured and killed hundreds, if not thousands, of Sunnis; and when night falls, neighborhoods become open battlegrounds.

"There's one street that's the dividing line. They shoot mortars across the line and abduct people back and forth," said 1st Lt. Brian Johnson, a 4th Infantry Division platoon leader from Houston, describing the nightly battleground that pits Sunni gunmen from the Ghazaliyah neighborhood against Shiite gunmen from the Shula district.

--------------------------------------------------

This requires no comment.

Pat Lang

http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/15201701.htm

Peace? Where?

"That appeared to be a major victory for the U.S. and Israel. France and many other nations had demanded an immediate and halt to violence without conditions as a way to push the region back toward stability.

The French presidential palace in Paris said a deal was reached on a resolution that seeks a total halt to hostilities and would work toward a permanent cease-fire and a long-term solution."  AP

---------------------------------------------------------------

1- France and the United States are not at war with each other.  They cannot agree to end the fighting.

2- Hizbullah thinks it is winning both tactically and strategically.  Why will it agree to anything other than a cease-fire in place?

3- Such a cease-fire will be a victory for Hizbullah.

4- Who will disarm Hizbullah if it accepts such a cease-fire?

The news babble over this non-event is meaningless.

Pat Lang

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060805/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_fighting_un

The Value of Allies

"...Hence Israel's rare opportunity to demonstrate what it can do for its great American patron. The defeat of Hezbollah would be a huge loss for Iran, both psychologically and strategically. Iran would lose its foothold in Lebanon. It would lose its major means to destabilize and inject itself into the heart of the Middle East. It would be shown to have vastly overreached in trying to establish itself as the regional superpower.

The United States has gone far out on a limb to allow Israel to win and for all this to happen. It has counted on Israel's ability to do the job. It has been disappointed. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has provided unsteady and uncertain leadership. Foolishly relying on air power alone, he denied his generals the ground offensive they wanted, only to reverse himself later. He has allowed his war cabinet meetings to become fully public through the kind of leaks no serious wartime leadership would ever countenance. Divisive cabinet debates are broadcast to the world, as was Olmert's own complaint that "I'm tired. I didn't sleep at all last night" (Haaretz, July 28). Hardly the stuff to instill Churchillian confidence.

His search for victory on the cheap has jeopardized not just the Lebanon operation but America's confidence in Israel as well. That confidence -- and the relationship it reinforces -- is as important to Israel's survival as its own army. The tremulous Olmert seems not to have a clue."  Krauthammer

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

People in the armed forces of the United States often ask each other the question raised here by Dr. Krauthammer.

What is Israel's value to the United States as an ally? 

This is a different question than whether or not the support and if necessary the defense of Israel is an American "value," even if self-assigned.  The Holocaust is something nearly all Americans feel strongly about.  A nagging feeling of guilt still exists over the issue of whether or not antisemitism played a role in decisions about welcoming Jewish refugees to the United States in the World War 2 period.  Did we Americans act quickly enough against Hitler?  Are we really not prejudiced against Jews?  In spite of the evidence presented by the prominence of Jews in our society, these feelings of guilt linger on.

Israel hates the idea of being defended by foreign troops.  In the minds of many Israelis, a need for foreign protection would undercut the very reason that the state of Israel exists.  Nevertheless, it is accepted by the vast majority of Americans that if Israel's existence were really threatened, the United States would intervene.

Having said that, it is necessary to consider, as Dr. Krauthammer does in his column whether the alliance with Israel is a net plus or a net minus for the United States from a strategic point of view.  Realpolitik?  You bet it is.  Countries live or die by their interests, not by their sentiments.   The Israelis have always followed a foreign policy firmly rooted in that idea.

As Krauthammer implies, Israel is an American political and strategic "investment."  This latest expedition into Lebanon is just the latest in a long series of payments made into that investment account by the United States.

Like any investor, the United States expects to see that its "capital" is well employed.

If Israel wishes to be thought a good "investment" rather than simply a beneficiary of sentiment and good will, then the IDF had better win its war against Hizbullah, and "handily" at that.

Without the context of a crushing defeat of Hizbullah, the whole imaginary diplomatic "Potemkin Village" of; Resolution 1559, disarmament of militias, re-training of the Lebanese Army and international forces designed to protect Israel's northern border will come crashing down.

What then will be the estimate of Israel's strategic value as an ally?

Pat Lang

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/03/AR2006080301258.html

Hobbesian Fear - Richard Sale

Pat: I thought you might want to use this on the blog.

One of the tragic elements of the Arab-Israeli dispute is that it is being staged as a melodrama -- pure good against the embodiment of the world's wockedness. Because each side is so intensely conscious of its own rectitude, so enraged with the other for leaving it without any alternative but war, they have eyes only for each others crimes.

In other words, both parties fall into what is known as the Hobbesian fear --you may vividly feel the terrible fear you have of the other party, but you cannot enter into the other man's counter-fear that he has of you. You can't even understand why he should be nervous since your intentions are so good and your heart so pure. You know that you mean him no harm, and that you want nothing from him but guarantees for your own safety; and it is never possible for you to realize or remember properly that since he cannot see the inside of your mind, he can never have the same assurance of our intentions that you have.

Thus neither party sees the nature of the predicament he is in, for each only imagines that the other party is hostile and unreaonable.

That is what we are seeing now in Lebanon and it is heartbreaking for all.

Richard Sale

"Israeli Defense Forces - all they can be?"

So far, Israel's performance in this war has not been impressive. Its air and artillery fire has not hindered Hizbullah's ability to fire rockets into Israel. The heliborne raid on Baalbec this week signals Israel's intent to change to a more aggressive use of ground combat power. But it is another fair question to ask how much damage that poor performance in the early stages of this campaign has done to effective deterrence, which the fear of Israeli and US forces has exerted until now.

Israel has now announced that it is going to "campaign" to the Litani River line and then wait to be "relieved" by an international intervention force. If there is not a cease-fire in place, that force may never arrive, but what is almost certain to arrive is an ever-growing number of international Islamic "volunteers" to fight with Hizbullah. "  Lang in the Christian Science Monitor

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0804/p09s02-coop.html

Deja Vu All Over Again

The United States plans to help train and equip the Lebanese army so it can take control of all of its territory when the warfare between Israel and Hezbollah eases, the State Department said Thursday.

The program was approved by Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld and Secretary of State  Condoleeza Rice to take effect "once we have conditions on the ground permitting," said department spokesman Sean McCormack.

McCormack provided no details on what equipment the United States might provide, the type of training that would be conducted, how many U.S. personnel would be involved, or how Associate Press

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In 1982-1984 The United States attemopted the same thing.  There was a lot of mutual admiration and congratulation among all those involved.

All went well until an attempt was made to use the "new Army" in combat to assert the sovereign authority of the Lebanese government.  this was in the Chouf Mountains south of Beirut.

Once contact with Druze and Christian fighters was made there the units involved fell to pieces.

The United States ended its reform attempt shortly thereafter.

Pat Lang

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060803/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_mideast_1;_ylt=Ai5jNaj8tIMyiVjfF72PxxMUvioA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

Ou sont les vieux?

My judgement on the strategic course being followed by Israel has been clear.  The airborne raid on Baalbec and the decision to "grasp the nettle" and re-occupy south Lebanon that have passed since I wrote this a couple of days ago indicate that "sobriety" has set in in Israeli policy circles.

Will the new policy yield the desired long term effects?  That depends on the IDF's ability to decisively defeat Hizbullah (note transliteration) and the sad future faced by the people of South Lebanon.

Pat Lang

Download the_death_of_a_legend.doc

Download the_death_of_a_legend.pdf