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27 June 2006

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ckrantz

The victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.
- Sun Tzu

Serving Patriot

COL,

If you were in Tehran, wouldn't you stall for time too?

I mean heck, once you have the Bomb, you are pretty much left alone.

SP

Spud

Got a link for that Khamenei quote? It would be helpful to know when he said it and in what context.

Spud

Missed the disconnected link following the entry. Apologies.

Curious

negotiation has fail.

Condi and team is trying to pull the clinton's North Korean package against Iran. (give em a promise of a super complex reactors that everybody knows not EVER gonna get built) And them act stupid. Condi and friend might as well promise the Iranian lollipop in exchange of quitting the nuke. What the hey... at least that's funny.

What Iran wants:
1. Security against Israel
2. Assurance from us that we are not going to attack them. (which pretty much bunk, after Dubya and crew say, everything is on the table including option to strike Iran)

Only then we can get their assurance they are not going to mess with us in Iraq.

but...I am afraid since condi tries to fool around, they also just gonna fool around.

In the meantime, Israel is going banana. They just decide to do full frontal assault against Palestine. (wanna bet, the kidnaped soldier is not a freak accident? but a predictably designed event that will give Israel excuse to invade Palestine. They have bombed Palestine 3 times without success trying to provoke them.)

So, now we are back to marching forward toward regional war. I'll give it several more months till the entire arab world decide to declare war against Israel. (If not people start calling jihad)

And then we have to choose, do we go to war to protect Israel or sit in the middle of shooting range.

And we are only half way through summer.

Watch the oil price tick upward people...$80 by end of summer if Saudi raise their voice against Israel assault on Palestine.

Curious

If you were in Tehran, wouldn't you stall for time too?

Posted by: Serving Patriot | 27 June 2006 at 01:56 PM

DEFINITELY. The amazing thing is that Iran even want to negotiate. Which to me indicate they still want to keep the option open.

I mean, they can just play dumb instead and do the North Korean gambit. (no more inspection, unplug the camera. then goes silence. and start tweaking the oil price to the moon.)

But they are talking... and amazingly Condi botches the chance by clowning around. (Probably she actually believes she can stop Iran having nuke instead of negotiating grand peace plan)

anyway, it's fubar.

I am back to initial assumption.

1. Iran have nuke
2. Israel declares war and start launching attack against Iran
3. Iran retaliate
4. we have to do something...

greco

"Supreme Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Tuesday that Iran does not need to talk with the United States about its nuclear program because there is nothing to be gained from the negotiations. State television quoted Khamenei as saying, "We do not negotiate with anybody on achieving and exploiting nuclear technology ... But if they recognize our nuclear rights, we are ready to negotiate about controls, supervisions and international guarantees."

Western media jumped on Khamenei's remark and began flooding the airwaves with reports that Iran had categorically rejected talks with the United States, feeding the popular perception that the world is headed toward a major crisis on the Iranian nuclear issue..."

searp

I'm surprised Khamenei said it. Talk is cheap...

Curious

I'm surprised Khamenei said it. Talk is cheap...

Posted by: searp | 28 June 2006 at 12:10 PM

specially if it makes oil goes up $2... gotta be the cheapest trick to pump up oil price in the book.

Curious

Keep your betting tab open people.

Regional war or not.

The Palestinain/Israel attack will drag Syria and Iran into the conflict soon enough.

(Obviously, Israel thinking is. If we don't attack Iran, then they will find a way to bring Iran/Syria into the war... all before the nuke is ready.

They gonna beat up on Palestinians first just to warms things up...)

Whew... this thing is so predictable, somebody is going to make A LOT of money out of this conflict.

Serving Patriot

So,

Does the IAF's low levels over Pres Bashar's house count as a causus belli?

The Israelies seem particularly aggressive this time around. Maybe Curious is right.

(Although a mid-summer is nothte right campaign season in the region.)

SP

Curious

I mean, seriously right...

Hamas didn't even make a peep, no comment, no bombing, nothing...they just minding their own business for last 3 months.
They just trying to hold things together from the massive economic sanction. They seem to be able to negotiate and patch thing up with all side they need to make amend. (Fatah, etc)

(This in contrast to everybody that predicts Hamas gonna start sending suicide bombers every day 24/7 after they take power)

now... suddenly in the past 10 days or so. Israel start launching missile against gaza. (3 times) still nothing.

Then the soldier kidnapping by some mysterious Palestinian group. (I mean...seriously...who? Hamas and Fatah knows everybody in Gaza area and they have no interest picking up a fight against Israel right now)

Then, Israel bombing Power station, important bridges, detain law makers..

And they fly over Syria.

Hamas is a group with a past. But they definitely look like people who try to go legit. And in the past months they seems like people who can keep their words.

... we are definitely effing them now, and the entire middle east region see the rigged justice.

this gonna get ugly fast.

Hamas gonna have to decide what to do against Israel incursion soon. I mean what they gonna do? do nothing and sit there? They are elected by the people to fix thing and achieve independence.

so... with more pressure they have to declare independence war against Israel.

Sean-Paul Kelley

With all due respect Col. I believe you are wrong on this. Having some experience with the peoples of Central Asia and the Middle East, and how the negotiate and/or haggle I will just simply add that this is par for the course, completely normal behaviour. When trying to cut a deal with a Persian, an Uzbek, a Hazara or a Turk this is what happens. They walk away. They say no way. They try to change the price already agreed upon, massive confusion is all a part of the game.

The United States and Iran are working on a deal. This is all a part of it. It will all come together at some point.

W. Patrick Lang

Sean

We will see, pl

Curious

The United States and Iran are working on a deal. This is all a part of it. It will all come together at some point.

Posted by: Sean-Paul Kelley | 29 June 2006 at 11:53 AM

... except that doesn't add up. I for one believe when a country has nuke, they will behave differently and try not to think everything in term of buying a water mellon in a bazaar. Saying otherwise is silly.

It's a little like an Iranian saying, well, 'I've been around in boondock Miss. auto show and know how people deal with buying second hand auto parts' It's all part of dealing with rednecks at states dept. So relax.. the nuke deal will all come together. ... whatever.

That's a stupid attitude. Either one is serious, or not. The reason we eff up talk with North Korea is precisely that. We fool around and wasn't serious. They calculated everything included the WWF style TV talk by Rumsfeld. They give us the most logical outcome and we lost. They got everything. We gonna be in exact same situation again with Iran. (same clowns are running the show, what do you expect?)

In Iran case, they know Israel and the neocon are coming after them. They also know they need little more time to pump up the nuke production. My sense Iran is trying to feel the whole scene, on top of not really wanting to have direct clash with us in Iraq.

but now Iran conclude Condi and Dubya are not serious people. Both are jsut threating everybody else like fools and not answering the core problem. (are ya gonna attack me, and what's the deal with Israel. Instead Condi is offering some enginering knick-knacks and other BS offers)

So that's that. The diplomatic effort with Iran fails. I don't think they gonna take us seriously now, particularly with recent event in Palestine.

It'll take some serious heavy weight person to revive the talk with Iran.

-------

anyway, with Syria and Iran tied in common front agreement. and Israel just fly a plane over Syria after showing aggression in Palestine.

I seriously doubt we can see Iran straight in the eyes and make serious deal without saying something abut Israel messing around with Syria.

..well my take at least.

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