"How Bad Could It Get?"

I have received this worst case scenario from our beother Erasmus.  I thank him for it spares me the necessity of posting my own worst case.

Pat Lang

Download how_bad_could_it_get.doc

Comments

[W. Patrick Lang]

Tom

I am not a Navy person but from watching the US Navy operate in those waters before, I would think that the Iranians could probably get in one good hit in the transition from peace to wat (always difficutlt) but that after that they would lose their ---. pl

[Curious]

This has Al qaeda finger prints all over. They start eating away the civilian infrastructure.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/4/19/85521/0257

Teachers beheaded in Baghdad in front of students

Separate groups of gunmen entered two primary schools in Baghdad on Wednesday and beheaded two teachers in front of their students, the Ministry of State for National Security said.

[Curious]

So somebody what's so different between us and Al qaeda in the middle east? Same tactic, same goal.

Al qaeda is winning in that, we in the end can't create stable regime. (in Iraq) And chaos persist and spread.

http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060417fa_fact

If the order were to be given for an attack, the American combat troops now operating in Iran would be in position to mark the critical targets with laser beams, to insure bombing accuracy and to minimize civilian casualties. As of early winter, I was told by the government consultant with close ties to civilians in the Pentagon, the units were also working with minority groups in Iran, including the Azeris, in the north, the Baluchis, in the southeast, and the Kurds, in the northeast. The troops “are studying the terrain, and giving away walking-around money to ethnic tribes, and recruiting scouts from local tribes and shepherds,” the consultant said. One goal is to get “eyes on the ground”—quoting a line from “Othello,” he said, “Give me the ocular proof.” The broader aim, the consultant said, is to “encourage ethnic tensions” and undermine the regime.

[W. Patrick Lang]

Curious

I suspect that a lot of that is BS fed to Sy as IO material pl

[rpe]

Col Lang,
I'm not a Navy person either, but since the Iranians have had 18 years to digest the sharp lessons the USN taught them at the end of "the Tanker War" and acquire a large number of relatively modern antiship missiles, I'm not as sanguine as I used to be. The main target for the Iranians would be our Kuwait-bound transports and, I suspect, tankers carrying Kuwaiti oil. These are big, slow targets and Iranians with good binoculars, in conjunction with mobile land-based missiles, could be a lethal combination. I have read that in both the Tanker War and Gulf Wars I&II we were not able to locate and destroy a single Iraqi or Iranian mobile launcher. I have every confidence that the USN would eventually triumph -- it always has -- but I fear that the cost could be steep.
If there are any retired Naval officers with expertise in these matters, I would love to hear from them.