Lebanon, the perpetual pawn.

"No consensus exists on a vision for Lebanon. Hizballah’s strategic alliances with Syria and, more significantly, Iran make improbable a serious dialogue on disarmament, which the party’s leaders consider an existential threat. Nor does Hizballah feel an urge to compromise, since it retains support among Shiites. The Hariri-Jumblatt tandem, in turn, controls a slight majority in parliament, but suffers from the physical absence of Saad Hariri, who lives outside Lebanon, fearing assassination. Moreover, Hariri is said to be under pressure from the Saudis to be more conciliatory with Syria, since Riyadh does not want events in Lebanon to destabilize the Syrian regime. The sectarian contours of the Hariri-Hizballah rivalry are sharpening, and while violence remains unlikely, the fight for Lebanon’s soul will continue for some time to come."  Michael Young

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"Riyadh does not want events in Lebanon to destabilize the Syrian regime."  Sound familiar?  (See earlier post on this subject)  Lebanon is now an even bigger political mess than it usually is.  Riyadh does not want Syria destabilized since Saudi Arabia believes it is close to achieving a dominant role in Syrian policy, but the neocons and their Lebanese and Israeli political allies DO want to see regime change in Damascus in the belief that  general change in the political culture of the "Greater Middle East" would be good for the "natives"  and GREAT for Israel.  There is a certain tension among these groups.  Caught in the middle are the career officials of the State Department under the idealistic leadership of "Miss America" herself, the CIA, and the armed forces.

This should go well.

Pat Lang

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2432

Comments

[ali]

As the likely replacement for Assad is someone much closer to Hamas than Václav Havel how does Israel stand to gain here?

[Tuli]

Dear Patrick:

'“Miss America,” herself'? What are you suggesting by saying this, and using this terminology?

Regards, Tuli

[Geoff]

Love that pic. I remember when I first saw it. It made me wonder: Who dressed 'Miss America' this morning.

Tuli: check out the pic (enlarge it)

[searp]

PL: how about the drumbeat over Iran? We didn't nuke the Soviets, who were a real threat, and now the drumbeat has started for a nuclear attack on Iran.

Am I not smoking the correct plant or something?

[wtofd]

"This should go well."

Classic. What could possibly go wrong when the Israelis and the US get involved with Lebanon?

What? Oh. Right.

PL, with both Iran and the Saudis courting Assad do you see any chance that the Syrians leave Lebanon alone?