Sic Semper Tyrannis

"In the Land of the Blind..."

"Indeed, Hamas's victory has set off a debate whether the administration was so wedded to its belief in democracy that it could not see the dangers of holding elections in regions where Islamist groups were strong and democratic institutions weak.

"There is a lot of blame to go around," said Martin Indyk, a top Middle East negotiator in the Clinton administration, referring to Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, and his Fatah party. "But on the American side, the conceptual failure that contributed to disaster was the president's belief that democracy and elections solve everything."

Ms. Rice pointed out that the election results surprised just about everyone. "I don't know anyone who wasn't caught off guard by Hamas's strong showing," she said.."  NY Times

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I know that I am nobody but I think a cursory glance over postings related to this topic will show a certain apprehension that Hamas was going to do well, very well.  Starting back at least as far as "Something Wicked This Way Comes" I believe you can discern in my scribblings the pattern of what happened in Palestine.

Why did the federal government not foresee this event?  It is because the political echelon of government has walled itself off from dissenting views of reality and spends its time in mutual intellectual masturbation and assurance.

The intelligence people?  They were made into moral eunuchs years ago and now are too involved in the intricacies of the "kowtow" to say anything distracting and awkward.

I have been rebuked in the past for my lack of faith in the efficacy of the "reforms" carried  out in the intelligence community in the last few years.  I will say again that real intelligence reform is a matter of the spirit not of bureaucracy.

Pat Lang

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/30/international/middleeast/30diplo.html?_r=1

Airborne, All the Way

Download 81waystarbursts2.wmv

Someone will say this is fake.  I hope not.

Pat Lang

The Duck Rule

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0601/29/le.01.html

I listened to the CNN chat with the Hamas fellow from Gaza. I thought he was remarkable frank. Mahmoud al-Zahhar is his name and he is a surgeon. He said (roughly):

-We are Islamic. This is an Islamic government and it will stay that way.

-We will not be threatened over money. There are other sources of money in addition to the wallets of Americans.

-We will not recognize Israel. If they allow us to create our state then we will make Hudna with them (renewable)

-We will not give perpetual recognition to Israel because religiously we can not give up recovery of the land as a long term goal.

-We are willing to make short term arrangements (10 years, 20 years) but not sign any permanent cessions of land.

-We could live next to them on that basis.

Already the rationalizing has begun in the chattering classes. The dimly sighted want the election result to be about “Corruption!!!! (NOT THAT!), “Inefficiency” anything, anything but religious nationalism. President Bush is remarkably insensitive to the power of religion. The neocons and some Israelis want desperately to believe that Hamas, the religious revolutionary group, will prove to be really “agrarian reformers,” “crypto-socialists” “pragmatists” “moderates,” etc. These things were all said of the Mullahs in Iran and look where we are.

The Hudna thing is interesting. They would observe a truce. The Muslims just about always do. In the life of the Latin States (Crusader states.) there were many Hudna (jama' aysh? "Hadaneh" mumkin?). Most were for 10 years, some longer. See Joshua Prawer for details. The Muslims never gave up on their duty to return Palestine to the Umma. They won’t this time either. Last time it took 190 odd years. I suppose the inference insures that the Israelis don’t like that analysis.

Epistemology:

1-Duck Rule: If it walks like a duck, squawks like a duck and has feathers, it probably is a duck.

2 – Sherlock’s Rule: When considering a problem, remove everything from consideration which seems untrue. What is left is probably the truth.

3-Occam’s Razor: In considering a complex phenomenon with many factors and a variety of explanations, remember that the simplest explanation that accounts for the factors is probably correct.

4- The KISS principal” “Keep it Simple, Stupid.” (Army Rule)

On the basis of the application of these philosophical tools, I judge that Hamas is exactly what it says it is and that Israel will re-occupy the Palestinian Territories after Natanyahu returns to power. It may take him a while but his analysis will resemble mine.

Pat Lang

"Pie in the Sky"

"So," he said, in a conclusion that may not seem immediately logical to outsiders but was repeated again and again in interviews here, "I think it is the best chance for peace. I think Hamas can understand there is no way to destroy the state of Israel and will take a course to peace.

"Hopefully."

Among Israelis, already reeling from having a prime minister in a coma, there is no lack of shock and anger that Palestinian voters overwhelmingly chose a radical Islamic group with a deadly résumé: 21 dead at the disco here in 2001; 19 dead on the No. 32A bus in Jerusalem in 2002; 23 dead on the No. 2 bus in Jerusalem in 2003; a double bombing on buses in Beersheba in 2004, killing 16 and injuring 100. And that is only a small, and recent, part of the list."  NY Times

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"We will continue to fight against the occupation..."  Hamas speaker in Gaza.

Occupation----  Interesting word.  The sweet in nature and soft of head have heard that kind of language a lot from Palestinians (and generally heard in it what they wished).  "All we want is our land back.."  It took me some time to understand that what is really meant is all of Palestine, all of it, maybe a piece now, a sliver later.  Maybe it will take more generations of struggle and death.   "I will struggle and live in misery and pain, but my grandson will live free in his own land."  I have heard that many times, from Muslims, from Palestinian Christians.

The "occupied" have a certain right to be deceptive and disingenuous in pursuit of what they see as FREEDOM.  A lot of us in the West still have a remarkable naive and patronizing attitude towards the Arabs, and the Palestinians are not made exceptions to this rule.  We still think of them as essentially childlike and waiting to have revealed to them the "truths" of our civilization, which we "know" must constitute the unitary path to the future and progress of mankind.

The exit polls told us this would not happen?  Surprise!  People routinely lie to pollsters in the Arab World.  Why?  It is because knowledge is power and why should one give power to strangers?

So, when we find that they are filled with guile and skillful at manipulating words to tell us what they see we desire to believe, then we are surprised.  Delightful!  Mufaja'a ya al-Ajanib!  The same pollsters have told us for years that the Palestinians want PEACE, like the Israelis are said to want peace, but in neither case have they ever convincingly told us WHICH PEACE either group wants.

Now we are predictably told that Hamas are not really religious-nationalist fanatics (seemingly mutually exclusive but nevertheless doable).  No, rather, they are the next wave of negotiators who will come to the table once they realize that they can't collect the garbage on time and that the Americans are unhappy.

"There'll be pie in the sky bye and by, bye and bye........."

Joe Hill (sort of.  My old man was a wobbly at heart.  This is for him)

Pat Lang

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/29/international/middleeast/29israel.html?_r=1

"The Buffalo Theory"

Download BuffaloTheory.jpg

TGIF

Review of "King Kong"

Download king_kong.doc

Alan Farrell

Might have been a better flic with the sex scenes. Actually, the monkey should stop by Ben Benson's on 52nd street and forget about the rest.

Pat Lang

The Price of Fantasy

"on Thursday morning, Hamas officials said the group had won up to 75 seats — giving it a solid majority in the 132-member parliament.

Officials in Fatah conceded that Hamas had won at least 70 seats, or enough to rule alone. They spoke on condition of anonymity because counting in some districts was continuing.

Palestinian pollsters were at a loss to explain the discrepancy between the exit polls and the reality. It may have been partly due to a reluctance by some voters to admit to pollsters that they were abandoning the ruling party.

Also, the errors appeared especially glaring in the district races, where smaller numbers of voters were polled. "  Yahoo News

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Some estimates indicate an 80 seat majority for HAMAS.  If this were not so sad a development, it would be amusing.  What is "revealed" here is that in a popular democracy, voters, given a chance to vote their will in secret will do just that.  I wonder how "Miss America" is going to deal with this outcome.

As in Iraq, and with regard to Iran as well, the neocons and other utopians have operated on the assumption that if empowered, Muslim and Arab voters would vote for western style secular liberals, heavily acculturated away from their own people and traditions.  This has not happened anywhere, not in Lebanon, not in Iraq, not in Egypt, not in Iran and now most spectacularly in Palestine.  Nevertheless, the "faith" of people at AEI, Heritage and in the West Wing has not been shaken and we will probably continue to seek the creation of earthly paradise through the mechanism of implementation of electoral reform.  Well, good for us.

Why do the Muslims and Arabs keep voting for theocracy?  Don't kid yourself.  Theocracy is what HAMAS, Hizballah, The Shia Alliance in Iraq, the MB spin-offs in Egypt and the Ahmadedinajad all really want. 

I live with a very perceptive observer of the Middle East.  She says that the reason we don't "get it" about the Middle East is that we have missed the point that many people in the Middle East really do believe in God and are really more concerned with salvation (look it up) than they are with democracy.

I can hear it now!  Surely that can't be right!!  Surely, these folks really want what we do; a "chicken in every pot," an SUV parked out front of the single family dwelling and freedom from religion.

Maybe not.

Pat Lang

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060126/ap_on_re_mi_ea/palestinians_election

Picture Title

I have "run into" this picture in a number of settings but have not been able to identify it precisely by title, medium, artist, period, etc.  Anyone know?  Is it an illustration?

It depicts the final defense of St. Jean d'Acre.

Pat Lang

For those interested a friend has provided the following information about the picture:

""Guillaume de Clermont defending Ptolemais (Acre), 1291," by Dominque Louis Papety, dated 1845?"

A New Palestinian Legislature

"The latest surveys show HAMAS, which obtained major success in the local elections against the group, al-Fatah, lead by President Mahmoud Abbas, will get more than one third of the votes in this election and become an important political power.

According to the latest public survey conducted by Ramallah-based Palestine Politics and Research Center, 42 percent of voters intend to vote for the Fatah and 35 percent for HAMAS.

It is also claimed the Islamic Resistance Movement emerge victorious in the elections.

Authorities said the election is like a test that forces the Movement, a body that has previously supported the use of force against Israel, to make a choice between "politics and weapons." Zaman Online

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"Something Wicked This Way Comes" was the title of an earlier post on the rise to political power of Islamist groups across the Middle East.  Tomorrow we will see another instance of this coming to pass.  Hizballah in Lebanon was said to be in a "state of transition" from armed struggle to political participation...  Well, they have effectively walked away from their role in Lebanon's government rather than even discuss seriously the idea of giving up their weapons.  They stand on the  sidelines of the US "Greater Middle East" project ensuring that Syria and Iran know that they have friends and allies in south Lebanon backing up their decisions.

Tomorrow the Palestinians will elect a legislature.  There will be a large role in that body for HAMAS.  Will Israel deal directly with HAMAS cabinet ministers?  They say no, they will not.  Will HAMAS government officials deal sirectly with Israeli government officials?  They say no, but they might communicate with them through intermediaries.

Not very promising. 

Pat Lang

http://www.zaman.com/?bl=international&alt=&trh=20060124&hn=28987

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamas

Lebanon, the perpetual pawn.

"No consensus exists on a vision for Lebanon. Hizballah’s strategic alliances with Syria and, more significantly, Iran make improbable a serious dialogue on disarmament, which the party’s leaders consider an existential threat. Nor does Hizballah feel an urge to compromise, since it retains support among Shiites. The Hariri-Jumblatt tandem, in turn, controls a slight majority in parliament, but suffers from the physical absence of Saad Hariri, who lives outside Lebanon, fearing assassination. Moreover, Hariri is said to be under pressure from the Saudis to be more conciliatory with Syria, since Riyadh does not want events in Lebanon to destabilize the Syrian regime. The sectarian contours of the Hariri-Hizballah rivalry are sharpening, and while violence remains unlikely, the fight for Lebanon’s soul will continue for some time to come."  Michael Young

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"Riyadh does not want events in Lebanon to destabilize the Syrian regime."  Sound familiar?  (See earlier post on this subject)  Lebanon is now an even bigger political mess than it usually is.  Riyadh does not want Syria destabilized since Saudi Arabia believes it is close to achieving a dominant role in Syrian policy, but the neocons and their Lebanese and Israeli political allies DO want to see regime change in Damascus in the belief that  general change in the political culture of the "Greater Middle East" would be good for the "natives"  and GREAT for Israel.  There is a certain tension among these groups.  Caught in the middle are the career officials of the State Department under the idealistic leadership of "Miss America" herself, the CIA, and the armed forces.

This should go well.

Pat Lang

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2432

"Brokeback Mountain" a Review

"what inspired Annie maybe since this is after all a woman’s vision not a man’s"  Farrell

"the scary menace of the guy culture"  Farrell

I haven't seen this movie yet, but now I am sure I will make the effort.  A lot of women don't understand men any better than men understand women.   Over the decades I have heard women say the most amazing things about men.  I had a secretary once who thought that any indication of affection between men must mean that they were gay.  Another woman colleague thought  that the lack of physical modesty in American soldiers meant that they were participants in a "homosexualizing" culture.

The man in the foreground in the picture is an American.  The one in the back is a Montagnard of the Malayo-Polynesian group.  I was introduced to one such who looked me in the eye and said, "You die, me die." I never felt like I wanted to kiss him, but.....

This might be a better movie without the "three minutes" of thrashing about.  It might then actually say something real about men and their feelings for each other.  I'll let you know after I see it.

Pat Lang

Download brokeback_mountain.doc

Alan Farrell

A Truce? - Unlikely

""As for similar operations taking place in America, it's only a matter of time. They are in the planning stages and you will see them in the heart of your land as soon as the planning is complete."

But it also says, "we do not mind offering you a truce that is fair and long term ... so we can build Iraq and Afghanistan ... There is no shame in this solution because it prevents wasting of billions of dollars ... to merchants of war," the Associated Press reported.

The conditions for such a truce were not made clear."  CBC

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In the Arab context an expressed interest in negotiations or a truce usually indicates that the interested party needs to get the fighting to stop.  Because of this, my first reaction to the statement concerning a truce in the latest putative Bin Laden tape was to think that it meant that the Jihadis see their war effort as not going well at present.

But, after listening to the larger message of the tape, I am inclined to think that the "truce talk" is intended for the Muslim audience as assurance that the Jihadis do care about the welfare if the Islamic masses, especially in Afghanistan and Iraq, and to deliver the message that it is the Kuffar (infidels) who are responsible for the continuation of the misery of war.

This tape is basically a pep talk for the Faithful, wherever they may be.  For us, in the West, it means nothing.  Did we think they had "gone away?"

Pat Lang

http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/01/19/osama-tape20060119.html

Iran's Countermove

In my previous post "and the Winner is - Saudi Arabia" I argued that Saudi Arabia has recently made a successful effort to "acquire" Syria as a state operating within the sphere of influence of "the Kingdom." 

Syria has been for many years an ally of Iran.  In this time of renewed Iranian assertiveness as a major power in the Middle East intent on achieving a dominant status it is not surprising that President Ahmededinajad is in Damascus offering a "basket" of "goodies" presumably as inducement to a continuation and solidification of the old relationship between the two countries.

Will the Iranian effort to "recapture" Syria succeed?  It is not at all certain that this will happen.  The Kingdom will not want this to happen and will "throw" additional inducements, either positive or negative in nature into the competition.

The Alawi rulers of Syria have a difficult time in having themselves taken seriously as "real" Muslims.  They like to think of themselves as a Shia sect.  Not many Shia think of them that way, but the Alawi treasure the idea and it inclines them toward the Iranians and Hizballah.  At the same time they have a good grasp of the attitude toward them of the Sunni, Wahhabi government of Saudi Arabia.

How will all this "balance out" in the context of the hostility of the American and French friends of the Saudis?  Only time will tell.

Pat Lang

http://www.guardian.co.uk/syria/story/0,,1690447,00.html

Interment at Arlington, 17 January, 2006

Iranian Conference on the Holocaust

"Last month, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a speech, "They have invented a myth that Jews were massacred, and place this above God, religions and the prophets."

He added, "The West has given more significance to the myth of the genocide of the Jews."

He argued that the "myth" of the Holocaust served as Europe's pretext for the existence of Israel."  CNN

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It will probably surprise a lot of people that the notion that the West invented the story of the Holocaust as an excuse for the creation and continuing support of Israel is believed by many in the Arab and Islamic Worlds.  There are also many in those parts who think that the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" is a historical document which somehow "leaked" from within Jewish circles.

The president of Iran is not universally thought of as a "nut" in the Middle East.  Many think he is merely indiscreet.  It should be instructive to those who think that the West's problem with the Islamic World is about communication that while this head of state can comfortably spout such tripe, to say the same thing is a felony crime in many European countries.  My father was in the government of occupied Germany and I was taken to see the camp at Dachau at the age of eight.  Ahmadinejad is wrong.  What would cause people to deny a historical catastrophe of this magnitude?

Many people in "the region" see life as essentially an us versus them, zero sum game in which the "other" is felt to be altogether alien, enemy and hostile.  Not all people feel that way, but many do.  For folk with that mentality the actions of the other must always be seen as motivated from the same kind of exclusivist hostility that they feel themselves. This is mirror imaging with a vengeance. 

The creation of Israel by the Zionist movement with British collusion is seen by such people as a hostile, anti-Arab, anti-Islamic plot carried out with malevolent intent.  The idea that such a thing could have happened as a product of serendipitous circumstance is discounted as absurd in such a world view.  The West says continuously that the impetus for the independence of Israel after WWII was the Holocaust, therefore this statement must be a lie and part of the plot.

Don't believe me?  Wait and see what the judgment of the conference will be...

Pat Lang

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/01/15/iran.holocaust/

Cinema (Ptui!) by AF

Ten Memorable Moments from the Movies

10. Grace Kelly, décolletée down to here and recumbent on a sofa the size of your porch, invites Cary Grant in the dim light of that Monte Carlo penthouse, to “look at these.” “Did you ever want anything any more in your life?” she purrs. Cary Grant, impenetrable as ever, adverts gentlemanly to her string of pearls, but behind him a roman candle goes spurrrrrrrt in the night sky. To Catch a Thief.

9. Bad guy goes to kick Hondo Lane’s dog, Sam, flaked out in walkway of cavalry commandant’s tent. “I’ll be hanged if I’ll go out of my way for any cur dog,” he says. Click of hammer drawn back on a Winchester ’92. John Wayne at his fortyish, virilest, best. He will shoot you, par’ner. “Man oughta do what he thinks best,” he rasps, in a whisper dark with menace. Guy weenies out and walks around. Hondo swings a boot half-heartedly at his dog: “Quit blockin’ the door.” Hondo.

8. In a rain-pelted back alley off a noisy New Yawk avenue, Holly Golightly and Varcek, Paul hunt for Cat. Soaked and soul-weary, Holly finally admits she’s not Holly, embraces Paul, sheds Illusion, finds Love, finds Purpose… finds Cat. Mooooooo-ooon river, wi-i-i-i-i-i-i-der than a mi-i-i-i-i-i-i-ile… Breakfast at Tiffany’s (Note: When the guys come over for beer, better tuck this one in the desk drawer or footlocker or something… or at least wedge it in between Magnificent Seven and Dirty Dozen)

Favorite Flics

I have been thinking of mentioning some of my favorite movies.  Here are a few in no particular order:

"The Third Man"

"The Searchers"

"The Blues Brothers"

"Chinatown"

"The Ninth Gate"

"Farewell to the King"

"The Duelists"

"Full Metal Jacket"

"The Four Feathers" (original)

"The Fifth Element"

"Hopscotch"

"The Spy Who Came in From the Cold"

Pat Lang

On A Nuclear Iran

""We won't be intimidated ... You don't even want us to do some research," said Ahmadinejad. "That's not fair. Even if you bring in the international community, we're still not going to listen to you the way you want. You are just tricking us, and this is not fair. You're not going to stop our research."

He accused the Western nations of using the threat of referral to the U.N. Security Council as a "stick" to threaten Iran. "Every day, they bring in a stick and tell us either we have to listen to them and do what they want or be referred to the Security Council ... You are using it as a stick, you are threatening us with it.""  Yahoo News

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"And I'll huff and I'll puff and I'll blow your house down..."  (wolf to little pigs)  It appears that the Iranian government (the one that Michael Rubin et al say is unpopular in spite of its recent election) has decided that our bark is worse than our bite.  They are probably correct.  There is a lot of "action" just now in the blogosphere concerning Western "plans" to raise hell with the Iranian "nucular" program with commandos or a massive air campaign.  Forget the commando thing.  Iran is a large, hostile country.  There are literally millions of people there just waiting for an opportunity to help the "authorities" hunt down a commando force.  You could get in, but how would you get out?  The complex itself is composed of a large number of facilities, some of them hardened against attack.  This is not a suitable target set for special operations forces.  Could a US air campaign set back the Iranian program enough to be worth considering?  Yes, but a fruitful result would require a maximum effort on the part of US Air Force and US Navy world-wide.  We are talking about something in the nature of a thousand strike sorties of aircraft and cruise missiles using platforms deployed from all over the planet.  One could do this with nuclear weapons at a fraction of the effort and cost, but the rational among us know that this will not happen.

The Israelis?  With what set of imaginary assets could the Israelis do anything more than anger the Iranians?  Their smallish air force lacks the strength, range, tanker capability, targeting capability, etc.  The target set would require numerous waves of re-strikes after bomb damage assessments were made.  The Izzies would have to overfly Jordan, Iraq, the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia.  All of these countries would object loudly.  They are all allies of the United States.  Think about it!  Would the Shia run government of Iraq give its assent to overflight or, better yet, to use of Iraqi air bases by Israel?  Ignore them?  Hey!  They are the SOVEREIGN government of Iraq.  We made them that, and they become more entrenched in government by the day.  A talking head host observed last evening that the Israelis have "THE ARROW..."  Say what?  The Arrow is an anti-ballistic missile weapon with an engagement slant range of about 100 km.  Arrow-Iran strike?  Duh!

Oh yeah, Osirak.  That always comes up in a discussion of Israel and the Iranian program.  It is true that Israel struck the Iraqi nuclear facility at Osirak long ago.  The facility was one single set of undefended above ground buildings and the Israelis struck it with half a dozen planes.  Not the same thing at all.

So, what is going to happen?   Probably not much.  We and the Europeans will eventually go to the UN for sanctions against Iran.  The Iranians will continue with their program and eventually weaponize.  The Iranians will seek reprisals against us all in Iraq and elsewhere.  With nuclear weapons in hand Iran will become the dominant local power in the Gulf.  They will have no pressing need to use these weapons because their mere possession will ensure that everyone in the region, including Israel, will have to deal with them as a major power.

What do I think of that?  I think that an Iran armed with such weapons will be a major rallying point and supply source for jihadi forces everywhere.   The possession of such power by Iran will greatly undercut the goals of modernism and democracy which the United States has embraced (for good or ill) in the Islamic World.  The probability of a major war in the region will have been greatly increased.  What will be the posture of the United States if the Iranians have nuclear weapons and we still have forces in the Gulf and in Iraq?  Should Europe feel safe?  They should contemplate the ranges of ballistic missiles which the Chinese have previously sold to Middle Eastern countries (Saudi Arabia for example).  Who knows what China will sell in the future and to whom.

http://216.26.163.62/2002/me_saudis_10_31.html

People will ask if it is not "just" that Iran should have nuclear weapons.  I don't care if it is "just" or not.  A nuclear Iran is too dangerous to be tolerated.

Pat Lang

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/01/14/iran.nuclear/index.html

"An Incendiary Threat in Iraq"

January 12, 2006

Editorial

"Iraq's most powerful Shiite politician has just dealt a huge blow to American-backed efforts to avoid civil war through the creation of a new, nationally inclusive constitutional order. That leader, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, has turned his back on the crucial pledge, made before last October's constitutional referendum, that the new charter would be open to substantial amendment by the newly elected Parliament. Instead, Mr. Hakim, who runs the dominant, Iranian-supported fundamentalist party, now says no broad changes should be made. In particular, he defends the current provisions allowing substantial autonomy for the oil-rich Shiite southeast.

The vote count from last month's parliamentary election is not yet complete. But it is already certain that the Shiite religious alliance, in which Mr. Hakim is the most important leader, will hold enough seats to block any constitutional changes it doesn't like. The only recourse is to persuade Mr. Hakim to respect that earlier pledge.

Mr. Hakim's latest position is a prescription for a national breakup and an endless civil war. It is also a provocative challenge to Washington, which helped broker the original promise of significant constitutional changes. On the basis of that promise, Sunni voters turned out in large numbers, both for the constitutional referendum and for last month's parliamentary vote. Drawing Sunni voters into democratic politics is vital to creating the stable, peaceful Iraq that President Bush has declared to be the precondition for an American military withdrawal. The most unacceptable defect of the new constitution for Sunnis is its provision for radically decentralizing national political and economic power, dispersing it to separate regions.

In a quirk of geology, most of Iraq's known oil deposits lie under provinces dominated by Shiites or Kurds, while the Sunni provinces of the west and north are resource-poor and landlocked. Iraq as a whole is rich enough to support all of its people relatively comfortably. But a radically decentralized Iraq would leave the Sunnis impoverished, aggrieved and desperate, driving them into the arms of radical Sunni groups in neighboring lands.

Although Sunnis are a minority in Iraq, they are an overwhelming majority in the Arab world. An irreconcilable split between Iraq's Shiites and Sunnis would leave the Shiites even more dependent than they are now on Iran and American troops.

Constitutional changes are needed in other areas as well, especially in regard to women's rights and the overly broad prohibitions against former members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party. But decentralization is the most dangerously explosive issue right now. Mr. Hakim seems perversely determined to inflame it."  NY Times

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It was sadly obvious from the time of the First Gulf War that intervention in the internal affairs of Iraq would lead to this point.

A systematic de-stabilization of a major country at the heart of the Arab World in which a minority (Shia) in the rest of the Arab World is a majority locally could only lead to civil war.  Is it surprising that the Shia Arabs of Iraq, having been empowered by us should now insist on retaining that power?  Is it surprising that this minority majority looks to its coreligionists to the east for support?  Not surprising.

The New York Times now perceives the threat of an Iraqi/Iranian bloc at the the head of the Gulf.  Who wrote the editorial?  Surely it was not David Brooks.

Pat Lang

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/12/opinion/12thur2.html?pagewanted=print

"Shi'ite challenge to US policy"

By Gareth Porter in "Asia Times"

WASHINGTON - In escalating their conflict with the United States over its efforts to weaken the Iraqi insurgency by co-opting Sunni political figures, Shi'ite party leaders may have delivered a fatal blow to the US strategy.

US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad has been trying to convince the Sunni population that a share of political power will protect their interests. But the ruling Shi'ite party - supported by the anti-US cleric Muqtada al-Sadr - has now broken decisively with that strategy, castigating both Sunni political leaders and the US as being apologists for terrorists.

Responding to the January 5 suicide bombing in Karbala that killed 60 Shi'ites and wounded 120, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader

of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), which heads the ruling Shi'ite coalition, said, "We hold responsible coalition forces and political elements that have openly announced their support for terrorism, for the pure blood that has flowed."

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So, I guess Hakim would be a "partisan" critic?

Seriously, this is bad news.  If Hakim and his Shia friends are going to do the predictable thing and simply oppose anything that might placate Sunni Arabs enough to lure them away from support of the various insurgent groups, then the effective dissolution of Iraq, either "de facto" or "de jure" is virtually inevitable.

Some people write to me to express their ideas as to how things "ought to be" in Iraq.  Often they do not seem to understand the difference between "idea" and "reality."  They believe that "right thinking" and "justice" are "reality."  In fact they are "idea."  Sounds a little like "The Cave?" Even soldiers read Plato. (and not at the University of Chicago)

In Iraq, we have an example of the trouble one can get into by confusing "idea" and "reality."  Our "idea" in Iraq has been a transformed polity run on the basis of "one person, one vote," universal suffrage, the rule of law, a belief in the countrywide acceptance of Iraqi nationality as the primary basis of self identification, in short a NEW IRAQ.  Unfortunately, this NEW IRAQ does not seem to be emerging from the smoke and flame.  A number of senior American government people cling bravely (or egregiously as the case might be) to all or various parts of this "idea" of ours concerning Iraq.  I imagine that they will do so even in their memoirs, years after the climax of these events. 

Hakim's "reality" seems to be shared by a great many in Iraq.  In his "reality" the Shia (one man, one vote) majority is going to use its voting power to dominate and "punish" the Sunni Arabs for the millennium of oppression which they suffered at their hands. 

I can hear it now!  Is this not FAIR?  Is it not JUST?  Yes, it is!  Justice will have been served in that outcome, but Iraq as it has been will cease to be and warfare at some level of violence will continue in Mesopotamia indefinitely.

Is Justice not more important than Peace?

I suppose the answer depends on the identity of him who answers. 

Pat Lang

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HA11Ak02.html

Bombing at the Interior Ministry

"The two suicide bombers managed to enter the Interior Ministry compound in east Baghdad, as dignitaries including the U.S. ambassador were at a nearby parade to mark National Police Day.

One was wearing the uniform of an Iraqi police major while the other was dressed as a lieutenant-colonel. Both had security passes that enabled them to go through the compound's main checkpoint and would have admitted them to the ministry itself.

"We're dying to know how they got hold of these badges to enter the building," one police source told Reuters. "This is a disaster. We can't understand how they managed to get inside without being searched."

Once inside the checkpoint, guards became suspicious of one of the attackers because of his bulk and shot at him, detonating his explosive belt. The second bomber then blew himself up, causing more carnage. Besides the 28 dead, 25 people were injured.

"Two brothers...got through nine checkpoints that the infidels set up around the building, then one of them piled into dozens of ministry officers," Al Qaeda said in a statement posted on a Web site generally used by insurgents.

"After fear spread among the apostates, the second brother blew up his belt, bringing great misfortune upon them," read the statement, whose authenticity could not be verified."  Reuters

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"We're dying to know how they got hold of these badges to enter the building," one police source told Reuters. "This is a disaster. We can't understand how they managed to get inside without being searched."

Really!!  You are penetrated, idiot!  That's how!  The Iraqi government (with US assistance) has been hiring and promoting policemen on the basis of standardized tests provided by an American industrial psychology company that specializes in testing people for employment in public sector jobs that require quality and reliability screening.  The tests were built on models used in other cultural contexts and were further adapted for the Iraq environment.

This company was warned by people familiar with Iraq and th Arab World that the tests would not be predictive of behavior or loyalty.  i.e., the candidates will lie either to get a job or to infiltrate the police.

This advice was ignored.  Is there a connection between that means of choosing people and today's events?  You figure it out.

There have been enough close calls now for Khalilzad that HE should have "figured out" that eventually....

Pat Lang

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-01-09T172600Z_01_SIB934014_RTRUKOC_0_UK-IRAQ-BLASTS.xml

And The Winner Is.... Saudi Arabia!

"Syrian President Bashar Assad made surprise journeys to Saudi Arabia and Egypt on Sunday for talks on finding a face-saving solution to a UN request to interview him about the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. At a summit with Assad in the Red Sea city of Jeddah, Saudi King Abdullah called for an improvement to crisis-stricken relations between Damascus and Beirut in the name of regional security.

Abdullah "asserted the need to consolidate and strengthen Syrian-Lebanese relations," said a joint Saudi-Syrian statement issued after the summit.

Lebanese-Syrian relations should be improved "in all sectors in  order to protect the interests of the two brotherly countries and  the security of the region," said the statement read on Saudi state  television.

The statement said the two parties agreed on "activating the joint Saudi-Syrian committee, and to intensify the communication between them in order to serve the Arab and Islamic issues."

Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal came to Damascus earlier Sunday and met with Assad and Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa. He said he had traveled to Syria to prepare for Assad's "important" Saudi visit, but refused to give any details."  Beirut Daily Star

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We really are laughable from the Arab point of view.  For many years now Saudi Arabia has labored and schemed discretely to reclaim Lebanon and Syria from the clutches of various Christian and heretical Muslim groups and to return these countries to the bosom of the Umma (Sunni dominated, of course).  Rafik Hariri was an instrument of that policy for a decade or more.  His murder prevented a return to power in Lebanon in which he would clearly have been a continuing asset of his former homeland, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  Abd al-Halim Khaddam, now bleating of "reform" Paris was one of Hariri's principal allies in Damascus and as a Sunni member of the Syrian Baath oligarchy one of the larger recipients of Hariri "channeled" largess.

The US, France have played a very useful role from the Saudi point of view.  They have pressured Bashar Assad to the point that he believes in his own vulnerability.  He knows where the pressure really has come from. This has been a pressure exerted in Washington and Paris, but influenced by regional politics and so he has gone to "Canossa" to make his peace with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia.  He has gone to accept Saudi hegemony in the Levant.

The side trip to Egypt is insignificant, a face saving gesture for all concerned.

Now, Washington will have to deal with the Kingdom.  If the "kowtow" was convincing, Abdullah et al will not want their "satellite" disturbed much more.

It should be interesting to watch.

Pat Lang

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=21346

Movie Review - "Aeon Flux"

Download aeon_flux.doc

Download aeon_flux.pdf

Alan Farrell

DoD Identifies Army Casualties

"The Department of Defense announced today the death of five soldiers who were supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom.  They died in An Najaf, Iraq, on Jan. 5, when an improvised explosive device detonated near their HMMWV during convoy operations.  The soldiers were assigned to the 3rd Battalion, 16th Field Artillery, 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, Fort Hood, Texas.

            Killed were:

            Maj. William F. Hecker, III, 37, of St. Louis, Mo.

            Capt. Christopher P. Petty, 33, of Vienna, Va.

            Sgt. 1st Class Stephen J. White, 39, of Talladega, Ala.

            Sgt. Johnny J. Peralez, Jr., 25, of Kingsville, Texas.

            Pvt. Robbie M. Mariano, 21, of Stockton, Calif.

Let's all pray and give our support to the families and friends of these 4ID Soldiers."

In Memoriam - CPT Christopher Petty FA

My friend, Paul Petty wrote last night to tell us that his son, Captain Christopher Petty was killed in action yesterday in Iraq.

"Dear Friends and Family:

    "Greater love hath no man than this, that he give up his life for his friends."

    Early this morning In Iraq, Chris and four of his soldiers were killed by a so-called "improvised explosive devise" implanted along the route they were taking between Baghdad and Najaf, to the South.  Details, at this point, are sketchy but we know that the explosion was powerful enough to kill all five occupants of the armored HUMVEE in which they were traveling.  He had been in Iraq only a few weeks.

    This we know for certain.  Chris was in harm's way out of dedication to his comrades and soldiers.  He loved his family deeply. But he also loved his troops and, after he took command of the Headquarters Battery, despite his frustrations with the army and a full awareness of what was right and wrong about Iraq, there was absolutely no question in his mind that he had to go back with his soldiers for the second deployment.  He would never expect them to do anything that he wouldn't do himself.  He was a professional in every sense of the word, as were his men.  Their dedication to their mission and to each other was unswerving.  Those of us who have never been in combat do not know of the kind of bonds which develop among fellow soldiers.  And though my heart ached to see him go for a second time, I could never bring myself to pressure him not to do what he did.  I know his wife feels the same way.  It was his choice as it is the choice of all of our soldiers.  The level of dedication and selflessness among them is unequaled and almost unfathomable in our society.

    Chris is the first member of our family to die in combat since W.W.II.  He is survived by a Grandfather who served in that war and an Uncle who served in Vietnam.  We grieve!  Oh, how we grieve for him!  And for his wife, Deb, his 3 year old son, Oliver, and his less than three month old son, Owen, who will never know his sweet Daddy.  God rest his soul.

    Chris asked to be buried in Arlington, should the worst happen.  He liked the dignity of military ceremony and took the rituals seriously.  I am sure he thought they would comfort us and in some small way demonstrate the appreciation of the nation to his grieving family and friends.  We will do our best to see that his wishes are honored and to honor his memory in our lives.

Yours,

Paul"

Alan Farrell's thoughts on this sacrifice:

Takfir wa Hijra

Frank Anderson is an old friend and colleague who offers this additional thought on my earlier post.

Poat Lang

""Takfir wa Hijra" is the extremist splinter from the Egyptian MB whose late 20th century ideological/theological reference is Sayyid Qutb.  ("Takfir" refers to Qutb's "doctrine" that those with whom he disagreed could be/should be declared "kufra" irrespective of their adherance to Islam in any form but that which he defined as genuine.)  They are the folk that assassinated Sadat, exported the group that did WTC bombing number, and one gave us the " blind sheikh" Omar Abd Ar-Rahman's plot to blow up the UN.  Their most prominent leader in exile (now that the sheikh lives in the Metropolitan Corrections Center) is Ayman Zawahiri, popularly known as Bin Ladin's "Number Two."  I have hunch that Zawahiri, in fact, has always been the real top man in A-Qa'idah, using Bin Ladin's name and money to build and motivate the movement.  Al-Qa'idah recruiters use Sayyid Qutb's books/language, not that of any "old fashioned" Najdi ulema, in talking folk into the jihad against jews and crusaders (and Shia').  I think "takfiri" is a more accurate label than "salafi" or "wahabi" for the movement that we now are confronting."

Frank Anderson

Takfir wa Tawhid

"KARBALA, Iraq - Suicide bombers targeted Shiite pilgrims in the south and police recruits in central Iraq Thursday, killing almost 100 people in a stepped-up line of attacks. Thursday's bombings came a day after insurgents killed 53 people, including 32 killed by a suicide attacker at a Shiite funeral east of Baqouba.  The blast near the Imam Hussein shrine in central Karbala, 50 miles south of Baghdad, killed at least 49 people and injured 52, said Karbala police Col. Razaq al-Taie.  The site was a scene of chaos with men ferrying the wounded in push carts and pools of blood on the ground. The bomber appeared to have set off the explosion only about 30 yards from the shrine in a busy shopping area.  In Ramadi, police and hospital officials said at least 50 people were killed and 40 injured in a suicide attack on a line of police recruits."  Samir N. Yacoub

100 today so far.  This begins to sound like an answer to the question I posed yesterday as to whether or not the insurgents ans their supporters were going to accept a negotiated but subordinate role in the government being created by the Shia and Kurd winners of last month's election.  I hear people saying things like, "Well, they will just have to GET OVER IT and learn to live with minority status.."  Sorry, but they have another option and that is to continue to wage a terrorist war against us and the Iraqi government in the belief/hope that eventually something will change in the situation and a-the country will break up and they achieve independence in the Sunni Arab heartland north and west of Baghdad or b- they can dominate the same area with lines of communication running out of the region into Sunni run countries.  In either case they will, by now, believe that eventually we will leave and that our departure will "level the playing field."   If the United States leaves a smallish (less than 100K) force in garrisons in country and increases the number and intensity of TACAIR strikes in support of government forces this will have only a moderate effect on the scenario described above because 1-Our garrisons will become more and more occupied with securing themselves and the embassy and 2- TACAIR in the hands of the Iraqi forces will be a double edged sword, protecting those forces and at the same time adding to the recruiting efforts of the insurgents.

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"Karbala's governor, Aqeel al-Khazraji, blamed "takfiris and Saddamists" for the Karbala attack. The takfiri ideology is followed by extremist Sunni Muslims bent on killing anyone considered to be an infidel, even fellow Muslims who disagree with their doctrine. Al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is a takfiri. His group has often targeted Shiites."  Samir N. Yacoub

I do not know Samir N. Yacoub, but from his name he might be a Christian Arab.  If he is a South Asian then he is probably Muslim.  I mention that because it is interesting the way he throws the word "takfir" around.  This word means something like "heathenizer" or "calling others heathen."   The governor of Karbala is undoubtedly a Shia.  I have a question for my learned friends - Do the "takfiris" call themselves that or is this term applied to them by their enemies?  I would have thought that they would call themselves something like "Muwahidun." (monotheists)

Pat Lang

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060105/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

Coalition or Conflict?

"A suicide bomber killed 32 mourners and wounded dozens at a funeral for the nephew of a Shiite politician, one of several attacks Wednesday across Iraq that killed a total of 53 people — making it the deadliest day since the Dec. 15 elections. The increased violence came as Iraq's three major political parties were close to forming a coalition government that would include Shiites, Sunni Arabs and Kurds, according to a Shiite politician. "  Yahoo

I guess this is IT.  We are going to find out if a political deal among the leading party organizations will suffice to cause a turning away from the insurgents on the part of those "civilians" who are supporting them in one way or another.

I have no idea what the outcome will be but the present negotiations among the parties and what comes after will give us a a better idea of the true options available.

Pat Lang

http://news.yahoo.com/fc/world/iraq

Movie Review "Walk The Line"

Download walk_the_line.doc

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"Walk The Line"  Alan Farrell

Fair Elections Do not Equal Peace in Iraq

It becomes ever clearer to me that most Americans believe that because in their own country the body politic accepts the outcome of elections conducted with a modicum of fairness, that this must be true in all the rest of the world.

They are mistaken in this.  In many places in the world, peoples' primary self identification has little to do with the idea of citizenship in a particular state and much more to do with ethnicity, religion as sect, actual tribes or regional interests.  This is so of Iraq.  Elections conducted in Iraq with the idea that people really believe in the idea of "one man, one vote" merely enable the most numerous identity groups to "put paid" to the less numerous.  That is what is happening in Iraq between majority Shia and the minority Sunni.  The Sunni Arabs know this and will continue to fight to prevent it.

"Civil War?  Iraq has been engaged in civil war among its primary identity groups since the End of the Coalition Provisional Authority's catastrophic reign.  The CPA's projection of the Bush Administration's policy of putting the Shia Arabs in charge of Iraq doomed Iraq to civil war.

Elections (democracy) and political correctness are the modern civil and secular religions of America.  Americans believe that elections are in themselves transformative and beneficial, and that a government fairly elected is necessarily a good thing.

This is not the case.  The historical example of the rise of National Socialism to power in Germany and Fascism to power in Italy should indicate the patent falseness of such an idea.  Elections reveal what is in the hearts of men.  They do not change those hearts.  The Shia and Kurd majority in Iraq show little sign of giving the Sunni Arabs enough power to lure them from support of the insurgents.

There are predictions on TV today of how well things will go in Iraq this year.  They will not go well unless there is a change in the hearts of men.

Pat Lang

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-fg-civilwar1jan01,1,5125966.story?page=1&coll=la-headlines-frontpage