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28 December 2005

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Patrick Henry

Thank Pat..Thats a good read..and clearly shows the reality of the current situation in iraq..Very..very Delicate..Indeed..

Patrick

'Don't be too sure that the Kurds and Turks are not cooking something as a surprise.

Well, I am sure that it is possible...war betweeen them perhaps?

Or war together against Iran with the urging, mediation and support of the US and Israel? Or, hmmm, a border treaty again at urging of US and with repatriation of Turk Kurds?

Everyone from time to time writes mysterious and knowing one-liners, but one like that ought really to have you asking questions.

Happy Jack

"Kirkuk will be ours."

By "ours", does he mean KDP or PUK?

W. Patrick Lang

HJ

Doubt if the KDP means to give them much. pl

avedis

I am entertaining the notion that perhaps the most realistic best possible and longest lasting solution to the ME situation would be a return to something resembling the Ottoman Empire.

There are certain advantages to that scenario; just one of which is that it would be muslims ruling muslims (despite the differences between Turks and Arabs and Persians) instead of American Zionist "crusaders".

Perhaps, at least, Turkish rule of Iraq would not be so bad?

RJJ

An analogous entertaining notion might be:

Mexico, like most of Latin America, is Roman Catholic and has a large indigenous population. Would a Mexican satrap[y] be the answer to our difficulties with Colombia and Venezuela?

ikonoklast

"Don't be too sure that the Kurds and Turks are not cooking something as a surprise."

How about Turkey cuts a sweetheart oil deal with an independent Kurdistan in return for military support, maybe sends or allows its own Kurds over the border (plenty of time later to deal with that nasty ethnic problem). With the oil the Turks get leverage with a US they resent and an EU that treats them like inferiors. They recover some nationalist pride, the Kurds get security.

(My very uninformed armchair geopolitics ...)

W. Patrick Lang

ikon

sounds about right. pl

J Thomas

The turkish government is limited by turkish public opinion. They can't do things that the public (or the rank-and-file in the army) would object to too strongly. I don't know what the turkish public would put up with, but I think the arguments that the turks would invade are based largely on opinions about that.

If the turks could truly improve conditions for their own kurds it would help get them into the EU. Would it hurt them? In theory they might be no worse off than canada is with quebec continually thinking about seceding. But in practice?

The kurds don't have any good choices for local allies. The turks are probably the best of a bad lot. Could they actually bring themselves to put aside their problems with turkish history?

The conventional wisdom is that the turks and kurds are implacable enemies and the turks will not tolerate a kurdish nation at all. Every now and then we find out the CW is wrong about something. Since it isn't all that unusual for politicians to find they misjudged what their own publics would tolerate, it shouldn't be surprising when foreigners get it wrong.

avedis

RJJ, not sure the Mexican analogy is really all that good of a fit.

However, overlooking the substantial differences to address your question - yes.

Maybe the Mexican satrapy would be a good solution provided that the Mexicans had a military capacity to keep a lid on an oil rich Latin American that was on the verge of disolving into anarchy and chaos with a decided anti-American flavor. And provided that the Mexican Satrapy was willing and able to deal with the US in something resembling a normal business relationship regarding the oil reserves.

(automated robots posting comments?!?! Sounds like you've been having trouble with Bush supporters on this site)

RJJ

Before the war started "if the scitte hits the fan, they can always send in the Turks to restore order" was considered graveyard humor.

I was responding to the idea of "muslims ruling muslims" as some sort of improvement. You must not know any Baptists.

phinky

I'd bet the deal between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds is Turkey recognizes an independent Kurdistan on the condition that Kurdistan defines its borders as the former northern part of Iraq and Kurdistan stays out of the affairs of Turkish Kurdistan. The Turkish Kurds can move to Kurdistan in the former Iraq, but cannot move back to Turkey. Ethnic Turks living in Kurdistan can relocate to Turkey. The Kurds get aid and assistance in getting rid of Ansar al-Islam (who are closely tied with the Sunni Arabs, especially al-Zarqawi) and the Kongra Gel.
BTW, Turkey and Greece did this in the last century, but it involved the forced relocation of Christians to Greece and Muslims to Turkey.
Did you also notice that the Kurds made a deal with Norway concerning Mullah Krekar?

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