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08 September 2005


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If the Sunnis are able to defeat the Constitution through electoral means, it will demonstrate to them that they can achieve change without violence. This can have a great impact on support for the local sunni insurgency, as they see their power at the ballot box, they are likely to divert more energy to that venue. This will leave the Jihadists allied with al Qaeda on their own. If they Sunnis feel they can challenge the system at the ballot box, and can effect change (i.e. a constitution more in tune to their demands) they the next government that comes to power becomes more legitimate.

Pat Lang


Maybe, or maybe the Shia will decide to dump the process since it would not have produced the desired result. pl


If there is any chance that the Sunni could vote successfully against the constitution, SCIRI and Badr Corp will take care that they can not vote. Just bomb some election places and for do the "recount" like in the first election. Three days closed door recount by Allawi, like last time, or someone else will make sure that there is no suprise.

But than, as PL demonstrates, it's irrelevant anyhow.

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