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01 August 2005

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This is perhaps the best clearly elucidated, pragmatic appraisal of the dynamics involved with the Iraq insurgency and our military presence there. It has seemed abundantly clear for quite a while now that at a certain point Sunni interests and the broader and intrusive jihadi interests would diverge, and Dale Davis's view of this seems quite realistic.

My broader question about all this goes to US behavior in response to these dynamics. I happen to believe that the Bush administration, for all it's grandiose rhetoric and posturing, doesn't really want stability to take root in Iraq for fear that such stability will undercut their ability to legitimize what I regard as their desire to maintain a large, long-term military presence in the region. In short, I suspect the US leadership would prefer to remain a catalyst for inciting the violence and providing grounds for the Sunni/Jihadi interests to remain united in their quest to force us out of that territory.

I'd be interested in your thoughts, (both Dale's and Pat's). Is there a useful benefit in considering that what I surmise as to US intent might be true? Is there an argument to be put forward to specifically counter US behavior if it does in turn take a path that will only continue serving as the catalyst for this violence?

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