It seems to me that I said much of this last year but it is good to know that the Israeli government agrees with me. pl
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Winograd Commission Not In Awe of RMA

CDI Science Fellow Haninah Levine has translated and summarized the findings of Israel’s Winograd Commission Interim Report that studied a selection of Israel’s failures in its recent conflict with the Hezbollah in Lebanon. The report goes into several issues, some of them indirectly, and it would seem to have ignored some other controversies. However, a few of the findings are very relevant to the defense debate – such as it is – in America. The report is bad news for the advocates of the so-called “revolution in military affairs” here. We provide a summary of some of Levine’s findings and a copy of his complete analysis of the Winograd Commission Interim Report.
Levine, an Israeli citizen and CDI science fellow, writes in his summary of the Winograd Commission Interim Report that the failures the Israel Defense Forces encountered “stemmed, according to the commission, from ‘excessive faith in the power of the Air Force and incorrect appraisal of the power and preparedness of the enemy, amounting to an unwillingness to examine the details.’” More precisely, the failure can be attributed to a new twist in the decades-old agenda of the advocates of air power. Levine’s analysis connects what some in this country call the “revolution in military affairs” to a “new doctrine [in Israel] which emerged as stating [according to the commission] that ‘success can be achieved by means of ‘effects’ and indirect ‘levers,’ in place of classic concepts of success….’” Later, Levine writes, “Faith in advanced air and artillery system as magical ‘game changing’ systems absolved the [Israeli] General Staff from the need to consider what capabilities … the enemy possessed, and led the IDF into a strategic trap….”
It is a trap, one might add, that America now finds itself enmeshed in Iraq and Afghanistan in large part for the same reasons.
Levine’s summary of the interim commission report also goes a step further: the inappropriate reliance by Israeli’s Chief of Staff Gen. Dan Halutz and others on their new doctrine was complemented – rather exacerbated – by a low state of readiness in the backbone of the Israel Defense Force, the reserve ground forces. Levine writes, “the annual training given to reserve combat units was slashed dramatically [before the war].” Moreover, he writes, “the military’s emergency supply depots witnessed a steady decline in equipment levels, such that by the outbreak of the war in July 2006 supplies of both ammunition and medical equipment were dangerously low. ‘Even more worrisome,’ according to the commission, ‘is the lack of awareness within both military and civilian echelons regarding the factual state of matters.’”
The commission stated specifically, “the quality of equipment in the depots sent a message about values to the reserve soldiers. And in fact, missing, obsolete or broken equipment told the reservist that there was no one making sure that he would be equipped in a manner … that would allow him to operate in an optimal way….”
Given the shortages in many categories of U.S. equipment before and during the American invasion and occupation of Iraq (such as tactical radios, small arms ammunition, first aid kits, machinegun repair parts, M4 carbines and much else – to say nothing of body armor) and the backlogs of unrepaired equipment lining up at American military depots, the Israeli commission’s findings have a particularly unpleasant ring all too close to home.
Levine sums up the witches brew of high tech fantasies and basic unpreparedness: “as the conflict unfolded, Halutz’s optimistic assessment of the military’s state of readiness merged with his false confidence in the abilities of its advanced weapon systems … to create a state in which the chief of staff’s concept of what his forces were capable of achieving was completely divorced both from reality and from what the information available to him suggested.” One could, of course, substitute the name Donald Rumsfeld for Halutz in this conclusion.
Because the Winograd Commission failed to address them, two major issues are not discussed. There is a potential, perhaps even direct, connection between Halutz’s preoccupation with Israel’s version of the “revolution in military affairs” and the low preparedness of the Israeli ground forces: to pay for the high cost of high tech wizardry, it seems very possible that military readiness was selected as the “bill payer.” Secondly, the Winograd Commission’s interim report apparently did not address one of the most controversial elements of the campaign in Lebanon: the apparent “collective punishment” of civilian targets in Lebanon by Israeli artillery and air systems.
In the United States, the “revolution in military affairs” is being recognized as an abject failure only dimly and only in some corners; the Winograd Commission would seem to indicate that in Israel the matter is being faced a little more directly. On the other hand, in both countries it is not clear when, even if, the body politic will confront the issue of the civilian deaths resulting from domestic military forces and the very likely huge and long lasting ramifications that “collateral damage” (an atrocious euphemism) will incur, and already has.
The entirety of Levine’s summary of the Winograd Commission Interim Report follows; it also addresses other issues; it is worth reading.
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